ASIA

AFGHANISTAN* (3 September)

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which recently visited the country estimated the 1998 total cereal production at 3.8 million tonnes, 5 percent higher than last year and the highest since 1978, as a result of generally favourable precipitation during winter and spring, improved security in many areas and some progress in agricultural rehabilitation. However, the food situation is likely to remain tight in the areas affected by civil strife and recent earthquakes. Cereal imports in 1998/99 (July/June) are forecast at 740 000 tonnes.

BANGLADESH (16 September)

Heavy monsoon rains that started in the second dekad of July caused extensive flooding in two-thirds of the country. The floods resulted in loss of life and extensive damage to property and infrastructure. Recent reports put the death toll at more than 1 000 people. Some 25 million people are reported to have been affected by the floods, with many thousands left homeless. Over 2 million head of cattle were also affected.

Late planted 'Aus' crops have been destroyed and the anticipated rice output of 1.9 million tonnes is now revised down to 1.6 million tonnes. The planting of the main 'Aman' rice was also delayed in most areas and many farmers will not be able to plant this season which ends in August/September. Actual crop losses will only be known after the floods recede, but recent estimates put the loss at around 2 million tonnes. An FAO/WFP Mission is planned for early October to assess the flood damage to crops and review the overall food supply situation.

The Government has made an emergency appeal for 1.38 million tonnes of foodgrains. A total of 830 000 tonnes has so far been pledged. More external assistance with both relief and emergency rehabilitation of the agriculture sector is urgently needed.

On 15 September, FAO and WFP jointly approved an emergency operation for US$84 million for assistance to 19 million persons for five months (December 1998-January 1999).

CAMBODIA (3 September)

A late start of the monsoon and well below-normal rainfall, so far, are reported to have delayed the planting of rice in many parts of the country. The incidence of insect attacks on rice seedlings is also reported to be higher this season. Widespread food shortages are reported in the country's north-east, which suffered drought conditions earlier this year, with many households receiving relief food aid. The Government has appealed to the international community for about 250 000 tonnes of rice to be distributed to the drought affected population.

The preliminary forecasts put the 1998/99 paddy output at 3.77 million tonnes, about 10 percent higher than last year.

CHINA (18 September)

Heavy rains since mid-June have caused extensive flooding in central, south-eastern and north-eastern parts of the country. The floods have killed at least 3 000 people, mostly in the heavily populated areas of central and southern China. About 240 million people have been directly affected. The extent of the damage so far is estimated in the region of US$36 billion.

Damage to crops has been extensive with about 22 million hectares affected and 4.8 million hectares totally destroyed. The summer grain harvest, which accounts for 20 to 25 percent of annual total grain output, is expected to fall by more than the official estimates of 11 percent from last year. Whether this will have a significant impact on the year's production remains uncertain. Official sources expect increased area under the autumn crops to compensate for the fall in summer production. The yields of subsequent crops could also benefit from abundant residual soil moisture from the floods.

The Government has mobilised more than one million soldiers to support the implementation of an emergency relief programme and provided more than US$ 229 million worth of relief funds to the flood-affected areas. Sufficient stocks of grains are available for immediate food relief, reflecting consecutive years of bumper harvests.

On 17 September, an emergency operation was jointly approved by FAO and WFP to raise 247 214 tonnes of rice, which together with a commitment of 100 000 tonnes from the Government, will provide emergency food assistance for a total of 5.8 million people over four months (October 1998-January 1999).

CYPRUS (3 September)

The 1998 aggregate output of wheat and barley is estimated at 38 000 tonnes, some 19 percent lower than last year. Imports of wheat in 1998/99 (May/April) are forecast at 95 000 tonnes. Aggregate imports of barley and maize are forecast at some 540 000 tonnes, similar to last year.

INDIA (3 September)

Torrential monsoon rains in August over north and north-eastern parts of the country caused severe flooding and landslides. Latest estimates indicate that nearly 60 million people were affected, with some 1 800 killed. Around 3 million hectares of crop area were damaged. Most of the damage was sustained in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam and West Bengal. Furthermore, in early June a cyclonic storm that hit western parts of India resulted in more than 900 deaths, displaced a large number of people, and caused considerable damage to infrastructure.

Generally, the 1998 monsoon began on time and progressed more or less on schedule, bringing beneficial rains for planting of the 1998/99 crops in most southern and eastern parts of the country.

Total food grain production (including milled rice and pulses) in 1997/98 is officially estimated at 195 million tonnes, about 2 percent below the previous year's record production. The target for 1998/99 production is set at 210 million tonnes.

INDONESIA* (3 September)

Unseasonably heavy rains in main cereal producing areas following prolonged drought boosted irrigation supplies for second-season rice and maize crops. However, floods caused by excessive rains at the end of July affected East Kalimantan resulting in loss of life and property. Floods are also reported in parts of Sumatra.

Forecasts of more heavy rains and tidal waves associated with the La Ni�a weather phenomenon in most parts of the country are worrying, and may aggravate the already precarious food supply situation precipitated by last year's prolonged drought and the financial and economic crisis. An FAO/WFP Mission is in the country to assess the outcome of the secondary season crops and review the overall food supply situation in the country.

WFP launched a US$ 90 million emergency food aid programme at the end of August for 5.3 million vulnerable people.

IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (3 September)

The production of the recently harvested wheat is estimated at 10.5 million tonnes, some 3 percent above average for the preceding five years, and about 300 000 tonnes above 1997. This partly attributed to favourable rainfall in the growing season in many regions of the country.

Wheat imports for the current marketing year (April/March), estimated at 3.3 million tonnes, are reported to have been bought with some of the amount already entering the country. Last year an estimated 4 million tonnes of wheat were imported due to fall in production. Rice imports for the year 1997/98 are reported to be a reduced 900 000 tonnes, compared to the 1996/97 amount of 1.2 million tonnes, due to favourable production prospects.

IRAQ* (3 September)

Production of wheat in the three Northern Governorates is reported to have increased as a result of the increase in the use of fertilizer and pesticides which were distributed under the oil-for-food deal. However, overall prospects for the 1998 cereal output remain uncertain in the Central and Southern Regions, mainly due to below average and unevenly distributed rains as well as shortages of essential agricultural inputs and the widespread incidence of pests, weeds and animal diseases.

Despite some improvement in the overall food supply situation following the implementation of the "oil for food" deal, malnutrition still remains a serious problem throughout Iraq.

ISRAEL (3 September)

The output from the recently harvested 1998 wheat crop, is estimated at 168 000 tonnes, some 20 percent higher than last year, as a result of favourable weather conditions. Imports of cereals in 1998/99 (July/June) are forecast at some 2.7 million tonnes.

JAPAN (3 September)

In early August, the country experienced the heaviest rainfall in more than 80 years damaging infrastructure and housing. Worst hit were the rice producing northern regions of the country. Nearly 17 000 hectares of farmland were damaged and the overall cost of the damage so far is estimated at US$ 180 million.

This year the country has already increased the area set-aside by 176 000 hectares to 963 000 hectares, under the Area Land Diversion Programme designed to cut rice production and reduce large stocks. Recent reports indicate that this year's paddy output is expected to be about 10 percent below last year's reduced output.

JORDAN (3 September)

Aggregate output of wheat and barley in 1998 is estimated at 75 000 tonnes. Aggregate Imports of wheat and barley in 1998/99 (July/June) are forecast at 1.4 million tonnes, about 8 percent higher than last year. coarse grains imports in 1998/99 are forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, similar to last year.

KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (3 September)

Heavy rains that started at the end of July have caused serious flooding killing at least 273 people. More than 150 000 people have vacated their homes and damage to property is estimated at about US$689 million. Some 47 000 hectares, mostly rice fields in northern parts of the country, were flooded and about 4 440 hectares of vegetable-producing farmland in southern parts of the country were destroyed.

The target for paddy production this year, set at 6.7 million tonnes (10 percent lower than last year), is unlikely to be achieved. Cereal imports in 1997/98 are estimated at 12.1 million tonnes compared to 13.1 million tonnes in 1996/97.

KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (3 September)

Torrential rains, hailstorms and subsequent flooding in August, are reported to have damaged crops and infrastructure in several parts the country. The damage was severe but localised. More than 40 000 hectares of cropped area have so far been damaged denting earlier favourable prospects for 1998 crops. An FAO/WFP Mission is planned in October to assess the outcome of the main season crops and review the overall food supply situation in the country.

The country's food security remains precarious. In May this year the government appealed for US$300 million from the international community to restore its agricultural sector and end its dependence on food aid. FAO, through its "double cropping programme", has prepared priority project proposals to address simultaneously the need for global increase of food production and the targeting of the most vulnerable farmers and co-operatives.

Total food aid pledges amount to about 880 000 tonnes of which 737 000 tonnes have been delivered.

LAOS* (3 September)

Drought conditions since late June are reported to be threatening the main rice crop, for harvest later in the year. In southern parts of the country, particularly in Savannakhet Province, thousands of hectares of the rice crop are reported to have been damaged. The affected provinces were also reported to have been hit by severe floods in the last three years, making it difficult for households to withstand the effects of the drought. Last May the Government made an appeal to donors for 35 000 tonnes of rice in food aid.

Aggregate paddy production in 1997/98 was estimated at 1.6 million tonnes, about 13 percent above average.

LEBANON (3 September)

The output of 1998 wheat and barley is estimated at 62 000 tonnes, about similar to last year. Imports of wheat in 1998/99 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.5 million tonnes, the same as the previous year.

MALAYSIA (3 September)

The country continued to receive average to above-average rainfall in most parts of the country since May. The rains brought relief to the drought-affected parts of the country earlier in the year benefiting crops. Harvesting the second rice crop, which accounts for some 38 percent of annual output, is nearing completion.

Aggregate production for paddy in 1998 is provisionally forecast at 2 million tonnes, about 5 percent below the average for the last five years, mainly due to reduced plantings. Recent Government reports have indicated that the drought conditions earlier in the year affected rice yields in only 15 percent of the country's eight growing areas covering 211 000 hectares.

MONGOLIA* (3 September)

Average to above average rainfall in July and early-August in central and northern parts of the country have boosted moisture for this year's grain crop for harvest later in the year.

The United States has recently pledged to donate 24 000 tonnes of wheat to the country to help bridge the supply gap in addition to the 11 000 tonnes provided last year. Japan has also donated 20 000 tonnes of wheat in 1998. The wheat is expected to be sold in the domestic market, and the proceeds to be used for development projects.

MYANMAR (3 September)

Below-normal rainfall since June was reported in most parts of the country, stressing the newly planted rice.

The aggregate output of paddy for 1997/98 is officially estimated at 17.3 million tonnes, about 1 percent above the last five-year average. The forecast for this year's paddy output is put at 17.8 million tonnes. Rice exports in 1998 are forecast at around 40 000 tonnes, more than 3 times higher than the 1997 export of 15 000 tonnes.

NEPAL (3 September)

Heavy monsoon rains since mid-June are reported to have caused serious flooding in most parts of the country killing at least 250 people and displacing more than 7 000 households in 62 districts. Some 1 160 hectares of crops are reported to have been destroyed and more hundreds of cattle killed.

Output of paddy in 1998/99 is officially projected to be similar to last year's harvest of 3.64 million tonnes.

PAKISTAN (3 September)

Pre-monsoon rains in May benefited the planting of paddy and coarse grains. The 1998 south-west monsoon started late in the country and was reported to be less frequent. Rainfall in July was below normal in 7 out of 12 provincial stations that report their data, indicating that the monsoon has been somewhat weak. Some regions are also reported to be experiencing drought conditions and need close monitoring.

Output of the 1997/98 paddy crop is estimated to be record 6.9 million tonnes, some 9 percent higher than in the previous year. A record wheat harvest of about 19 million tonnes is also estimated, against an average harvest of about 16 million tonnes in the previous five years

PHILIPPINES (3 September)

Planting of main season paddy, which was hampered by El Ni�o related drought at the beginning of the season, is nearing completion. Several provinces in Mindanao were affected by prolonged drought severely damaging crops and resulting in serious food shortages. Maize output in 1998 is expected to be about 3.79 million tonnes, about 12 and 14 percent below last year's harvest and the average for the previous five years respectively. Output of paddy in 1998 is also expected to decline to 10.5 million tonnes, about 2 percent below average.

The Government has estimated that about half a million households were affected with about half of those in dire need. The National Food Agency is reported to have contracted a record import of 1.35 million tonnes of rice for delivery this year.

SAUDI ARABIA (3 September)

Aggregate output of wheat and barley in 1998 is estimated at 2.2 million tonnes, some 16 percent higher than last year, as a result of favourable growing conditions. Low numbers of locusts are likely to breed on the southern Tihama near Jizan and in some areas with recent rainfall. Imports of barley in 1998/99 (July/June) are currently forecast at 5.1 million tonnes.

SRI LANKA (3 September)

Favourable monsoon rainfall and the availability of adequate water in reservoirs have benefited the Yala season Paddy crop. Rainfall in 1998 from the South West monsoon has been generally favourable with cumulative rainfall, in the period 1 May to 3 September, being normal to above normal in all eight provinces monitored. In comparison, in the same period the previous year, cumulative rainfall was normal or above normal in six out of the 8 provinces.

The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Following the good harvests of last year Government-held rice stocks are adequate and rice imports are expected to be much smaller.

SYRIA (3 September)

The output of the 1998 recently harvest wheat crop is estimated at 4.1 million tonnes, 35 percent higher than last year. The output of barley is estimated at 983 000 tonnes, some 8 percent higher than the previous year. Imports of wheat flour in 1998/99 are forecast at some 150 000 tonnes and rice imports are also forecast at 150 000 tonnes.

THAILAND (3 September)

Although there are concerns over La Nina related floods, planting of the main-season paddy is underway under favourable conditions. From 18 May to 30 August, cumulative rainfall was below normal in 7 (out of 26) stations, accounting for about 17 percent of the main season grain production. This compares with 12 stations accounting for 58 percent of main season production with below normal rainfall at the same time last year.

The preliminary forecast for paddy output in 1998/99 is about 23 million tonnes, up by 2 percent from the previous year. Current high rice prices are expected to encourage farmers to increase area under paddy.

TURKEY (3 September)

The output of the 1998 wheat crop, estimated at 20 million tonnes, is about 7 percent higher than last year, mainly as a result of the increase in yield, which are reported to have increased by about 15 percent from last year. The output of barley and maize is estimated at 8 million tonnes and 2.3 million tonnes, respectively. To meet corn demand through imports, the Government has reduced the import tax on non-seed corn to 20 percent from 35 percent. Wheat imports in 1998/99 are forecast at some 1.0 million tonnes and maize imports are forecast at 600 000 tonnes.

VIET NAM (3 September)

Prolonged drought in central Vietnam has dried up major reservoirs damaging more than 8 000 hectaresof paddy. The situation is expected to worsen as more dry weather is forecast. However, torrential rains in northern provinces have swollen major rivers including the Red River, Thai Binh and Lo to danger levels, threatening severe flooding. Flash floods have also resulted in loss of life and damage to crops and property in the Mekong Delta. More than 3 000 hectares of maize were also reported to have been damaged in the south east of the country.

In response to rising domestic rice prices and to ensure domestic availability, the Government has imposed a limited ban on new export contracts from August 15. Subsequently, export targets for 1998 were revised down to 3.6 million tonnes from the original 4 million tonnes.

Aggregate paddy output in 1998 is expected to be slightly lower than last year's figure of 27.5 million tonnes.

YEMEN (3 September)

Output of the sorghum crop in 1998 is estimated to increase to 439 000 tonnes, 23 percent higher than last year. Likewise wheat production, estimated at 165 000 tonnes, is 28 percent higher than the previous year. Small scale breeding of desert locust could extend into areas of recent rainfall in the eastern desert. Hoppers are likely to appear from early October and may form small groups or bands. Scattered adults may appear on the Red Sea Coastal plains and start to breed in areas of recent rains. Imports of cereals in 1998 - mainly wheat - are estimated at some 2.9 million tonnes.