The 1998 cereal harvest is now well underway and one of the earliest on record. It is reported that yields of most major crops are above last year's levels due to an early planting season, and satisfactory growing conditions. Intermittent rain during the latter part July arrived in time to relieve crops following previously very hot and dry conditions. Wheat output is now forecast at 23 million tonnes, about 5 percent down from 1997 and below the average of the past 5 years. Prospects for the main coarse grains crop (mostly barley), are similar to those for wheat. Aggregate coarse grains output is now forecast at about 25.7 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from last year's crop; a reduction in barley output is expected to be offset by larger maize and oats crops.
The bulk of the United States wheat crop has been gathered and the spring wheat harvest is well underway. Following generally good weather conditions for harvesting and the development of the spring wheat crop, official estimates for wheat production have been raised further since the last report. Winter wheat production is now estimated at some 52 million tonnes, 2 percent up from the good 1997 crop despite a significant reduction in area. The forecast for spring wheat production is now put at some 17 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from last year's crop.
Prospects for the 1998 coarse grains crop remain generally satisfactory, despite some serious drought and heat problems in the southern and southeast states and some localized problems in the Midwest, mainly due to excessive moisture. The latest (11 September) USDA crop report maize production at about 247 million tonnes, some 4 percent up from last year's crop. This year's crop is well ahead of the normal rate of development with the bulk of it through the critical reproductive phase by early August. There is now less potential for major yield loss from prolonged heat and also the rapid pace of development suggests there will be limited likelihood of damage from early frosts.
The forecast for the 1998 paddy crop is 8.2 million, slightly above last year's level despite delayed planting in California and a heat wave in many of the southern rice producing states.