As a result of generally favourable weather and some 10 percent increase in the area sown, aggregate cereal production in 1998 (mostly maize) rose by more than one-third to 594 000 tonnes. Output from other crops including cassava, pulses and sweet potatoes is also estimated to have increased reflecting larger areas sown and good yields.
The cereal import requirement in the 1998/99 marketing year (April/March) is estimated at 471 000 tonnes, including 121 000 tonnes of food aid. Despite the improvement in domestic production, the country's food supply situation remains difficult. Renewed fighting in several areas particularly in the northern province of Malange has exacerbated an already precarious food supply situation. The food supply position is particularly serious in the two drought-hit southern provinces of Cunene and Cuando Cubango where targeted food assistance is required. The number of displaced people in need of emergency food assistance is increasing, but it is difficult to reach many areas because of growing insecurity. Food aid pledges at the end of August amounted to 129 000 tonnes, of which 45 000 tonnes have been delivered.
The 1998 cereal crop - mainly sorghum - is estimated at 9 000 tonnes, one-third of last year's below-average crop. Erratic and poorly distributed rainfall towards the end of the growing season seriously affected yields in several parts of the country, leading to a major crop loss.
However, even in normal years, the country imports most of its cereal needs. It is therefore anticipated that, available grain stocks and planned imports by major commercial millers will meet the domestic requirements of 256 000 tonnes, estimated for the 1998/99 marketing year.
Production of cereals in 1998 is put at 105 000 tonnes, including 67 000 tonnes of maize and 28 000 tonnes of sorghum. This is 34 percent lower than last year's crop, and markedly below average, reflecting erratic and poorly distributed rains during the growing season. As a result, cereal imports will have to remain at the same high level of last year when over 200 000 tonnes of cereals were imported, mostly on commercial terms. Food aid pledges at the end of August amounted to 6 200 tonnes, all delivered.
Growing conditions for the 1998 paddy and other cereal crops were generally favourable and locusts had no significant impact on production. However, reflecting lower plantings, paddy output is estimated to have decreased by some 300 000 tonnes from the average harvest of 2.5 million tonnes in 1997. Production of maize and other cereals is expected to be about average.
The overall food supply situation in the country for the 1998/99 marketing year is expected to remain relatively stable, including in the drought-prone south, where locust damage to crops and pastures is reported.
The food supply situation in the current 1998/99 marketing year is expected to improve following the above average 1998 cereal harvest of 1.88 million tonnes. Maize production increased by 225 000 tonnes to 1.76 million tonnes. People living in localized food deficit areas in the north, where excessive rains resulted in flooding with loss of crops, are expected to be assisted under a Government programme supported by aid agencies.
The 1998 production of cereals is estimated at 1.69 million tonnes, an increase of some 10 percent on last year's above-average crop of 1.53 million tonnes. The increase is attributed to both increased area planted and harvested and increased yields for all cereals, particularly in the northern and central provinces. Production of cassava, groundnuts and beans is also estimated to have increased significantly.
Following several years of steady increase in food production and a good 1998 harvest, the overall food supply position is expected to improve further in the current marketing year. The country, which received an average of 600 000 tonnes of food aid in the 1991-94 period, will need virtually no food aid in 1998/99, except in localised areas where floods and drought caused some crop losses.
The 1998 cereal output is officially estimated at 59 000 tonnes, one-third of last year's above-average crop. Production of millet decreased from 107 000 tonnes to 35 000 tonnes, the lowest level for the last six years. Below-normal and poorly distributed rain in most areas of the country resulted in widespread crop failures and poor regeneration of pastures.
As a result of the sharp decline in domestic output, the food supply situation in 1998/99 (May/April) is likely to be tight. Imports of cereals are estimated to double to some 155 000 tonnes (120 000 tonnes of maize and 35 000 tonnes of wheat). An international appeal has been launched for US$6 million to finance food distribution, food-for-work and development of the water sector for an estimated 160 000 drought-affected people mainly in the northern areas bordering Angola.
Aggregate output of cereals in 1998 is currently estimated at 10 million tonnes, some 16 percent lower than last year's above-average crop. This includes 7.6 million tonnes of maize, which is 16 percent down from last year's output of 9 million tonnes, mainly due to reduced plantings and prolonged dry spells that reduced yields. However, this reduced harvest is unlikely to seriously limit the exportable maize surplus to the deficit countries in the sub-region, given the large carryover stock.
The early outlook for the wheat crop to be harvested towards the end of the year is unfavourable. Despite recent favourable weather conditions, production in 1998 will be negatively affected by a sharp reduction in plantings as confirmed by the September official forecast which points to a 46 percent reduction in area planted and a 35 percent drop in output compared to 1997.
Above-normal rains for most of the growing season coupled with larger planted areas resulted in a 1998 cereal crop (mainly maize) of 107 000 tonnes. This is 26 percent higher than last year's drought reduced harvest and above average. Most of the increase was due to better yields in the Lowveld, almost one-third higher than last year, and in the Highveld.
Sufficient domestic cereal availability combined with normal commercial imports of wheat and rice (40 000 tonnes and 8 000 tonnes, respectively) should lead to a satisfactory food supply position for the marketing year 1998/99.
As a result of El Ni�o-related weather anomalies which drastically reduced crop yields and total production, the 1998 cereal output is estimated at 707 000 tonnes, down 37 percent from the previous year's level and markedly below average. For maize, the staple of the country, production is estimated at some 548 000 tonnes, 43 percent lower than last year and 58.6 percent of the previous five-year average.
The food supply situation for the 1998/99 marketing year is expected to be tight. Maize prices are reported to be steadily increasing since May/June. Against a total cereal import requirement of 660 000 tonnes, commercial imports are forecast at 364 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered deficit of 296 000 tonnes, which includes 45 000 tonnes of emergency food assistance. To cover this deficit, the country will need international assistance in the form of grants, concessional imports and targeted food aid. So far food aid pledges amount to 6 000 tonnes, of which 3 000 tonnes have been delivered.
Aggregate cereal production in 1998 is currently estimated at 1.83 million tonnes, one-third less than last year's good crop. The 1998 maize harvest is officially estimated at 1.47 million tonnes, over 700 000 tonnes down compared to the 1997 above average crop.
With a relatively small carryover stock, the food supply situation during the 1998/99 marketing year is expected to be quite tight and larger than normal imports of maize and wheat are anticipated. Targeted food assistance, especially for vulnerable groups in the drier areas of the south, will be required.