In western Africa, despite a late start of the season in the coastal countries, growing conditions have been generally favourable, except in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire where dry spells have stressed crops. Cereal output in Sierra Leone is expected to be below last year’s level following new population displacements, while production should be close to last year in Liberia. In both countries the food supply situation is still very precarious and they will continue to rely heavily on food assistance in 1999. The large number of refugees in southern Guinea has affected food availability and agricultural activities in the area. In the Sahelian countries, reflecting generally abundant and widespread rains in August, harvest prospects are favourable so far in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger. Following late and reduced rains in July, prospects have improved in Senegal and The Gambia with increasing and regular rains in August and early September, but the final outcome is heavily dependent on weather conditions in September and October. In Mauritania, recently planted rainfed crops are developing satisfactorily but they represent only about one third of total cereal production. In Guinea Bissau, the cease-fire agreed in late July and subsequent peace talks permitted the resumption of agricultural activities, but production is anticipated to remain well below normal.
In central Africa, abundant rains benefited coarse grain crops in Cameroon and Central African Republic. Resurgence of civil strife in the Democratic Republic of Congo is likely to impede normal agriculture and marketing activities, especially in Kivu region.
In eastern Africa, abundant rains in August improved prospects for the 1998 foodcrops about to be harvested. Good outputs, better than last year, are forecast in Kenya, Ethiopia and Eritrea. In Sudan, heavy rains in early September resulted in floods and crop damage but generally benefited developing cereals stressed by dry weather. In Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, where harvests have been completed, foodcrop production recovered substantially from last year’s levels. By contrast, sharply reduced cereal crops were gathered in Somalia due to dry weather and reduced plantings.
In southern Africa, the cereal harvest earlier in 1998 is estimated at about 19 million tons. This is below last year's level and below average, despite above-average cereal crops in Angola, Malawi, Mozambique and Swaziland. As a result of abnormal weather conditions attributed to El Niño, cereal production was significantly reduced in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Consequently, the sub-regional cereal import requirements are forecast to rise significantly during the 1998/99 marketing year. However, a maize surplus will be available in South Africa due to large carryover stocks, which is expected to be exported to the food-deficit countries. In Angola, renewed fighting and increased insecurity during the past few months have exacerbated an already precarious food supply situation, particularly in the southern provinces. In Madagascar, the 1998 rice crop is expected to be slightly below average as a result of reduced plantings.
In Asia, persistent rains attributed to the La Niña phenomenon and consequent flooding have taken a heavy toll on human life, infrastructure and crops. This year's south-west monsoon arrived early or on schedule in most countries of the region but its performance has been erratic resulting in excessive rains and flooding in several countries and drought conditions in others. Large areas of cropped land have been submerged in China, Bangladesh, The Republic of Korea, India and Nepal. Extensive damage also occurred in Japan, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Indonesia. Although it is too early to estimate the impact of the floods on crop production, there are fears of a decline in world paddy output, 90 percent of which comes from the region. In contrast, drought conditions are affecting some countries in the region, including Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos. Reflecting generally favourable weather conditions, production in Afghanistan has increased.
In Central America and the Caribbean, prospects for the 1998 first season cereal crops are good in El Salvador, Nicaragua as well as in Honduras, where a reasonable recovery is expected from last year’s drought-affected crops. In Guatemala, the maize crop is being affected by pests and considerable losses are expected, while in Mexico, the outlook is uncertain as the crops have been affected by abnormally dry weather. In Cuba, severe damage to foodcrops is reported, particularly in the eastern provinces, as a consequence of a long and severe drought. Generally normal weather has benefited crops in the Dominican Republic and Haiti and average outputs are anticipated.
In South America, planting of the 1998 wheat crop is almost completed in the southern areas of the sub-region. In Argentina, the area planted is provisionally estimated at about 15 percent below last year’s average level, mostly due to low wheat prices relative to alternative crops. In Brazil, plantings have also declined by some 12 percent relative to 1997. In Uruguay, the area planted is about average. In Chile, a severe drought is affecting maize, which is presently being planted, and the development of the wheat crop to be harvested from December. In Bolivia, harvesting of the 1998 wheat (winter) crop is underway while planting of the 1998/99 first season coarse grain crops has started recently under generally dry weather conditions. In Peru, harvesting of the 1998 wheat and maize crops is well advanced and output is anticipated to decline from last year but still remain slightly above average. In Ecuador, the outlook is poor for foodcrops, currently being harvested, as they were severely affected by severe weather associated with El Niño at planting. In Colombia, harvesting of the 1998 maize crop is underway and a recovery is expected from the 1997 reduced crop. In Venezuela, harvesting of the 1998 maize crop has only started and an average output is anticipated.
In Europe, latest indications continue to point to another above-average cereal harvest in the EC in 1998, of some 210 million tonnes, 1 percent up on the previous year. An increase in wheat output is expected to be partially offset by smaller coarse grains crops. In eastern parts, production is forecast to decline in Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania, but remain mostly unchanged from 1997 in the other countries. In the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, wheat production has increased this year, but hot, dry spells have resulted in a drop in maize production.
In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), harvesting is well underway. Scattered rains in August have caused some delays to fieldwork, but have provided useful moisture for the winter plantings. The total planted area is ten percent down from the recent average, mainly due to shortages of credit, fuel and working machinery. Dry spells in some of the key producing areas in July have resulted in below normal cereal yields for the CIS as a whole. Overall cereal production in 1998 is expected to be some 30 million tons below the good crop of 1997. Drought and late season rains have caused extensive damage to the important potato crop. In the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazhakstan, the major cereal producers, crops will be well down on the average. Harvests in Armenia, Azebaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Tadjikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are expected to be above the recent five year average.
In North America, latest information points to another good wheat crop in the United States. Production is now estimated at 69.4 million tonnes, marginally above the 1997 level. Prospects for the 1998 coarse grains crop remain generally satisfactory. Maize is reported to be developing well and output is forecast at about 244 million tonnes, some 2 percent up on last year. In Canada, the 1998 cereal harvest is now well underway and one of the earliest on record. Yields of most major crops are reported to be above last year’s levels. Wheat output is forecast at 23 million tonnes, while that for coarse grains is put at about 25.7 million tons.
In Oceania, prospects for the 1998 winter wheat and coarse grains in Australia have improved significantly over the past two months due to better moisture conditions throughout most of the major producing areas. The 1998 wheat output is now forecast to reach 23.5 million tonnes, much higher than the previous year and close to the 1993 record, while that for coarse grains is put at 9.2 million tonnes, about the same as in 1997.