4. Production & availability of cereals
Production and availability of cereals is proposed to be examined in some details in this chapter because cereals happen to be the most important source of energy and adequate availability of just cereals themselves will go a long way in reducing hunger and poverty on one hand and assuring food and nutrition security to people on the other hand. An Inter-Ministerial Working Group set up in the Ministry of Agriculture recently has observed that on the basis of average net production of cereals for consumption during the last three years 199193, 1501 Kcal energy per capita per day is provided by cereals alone. Taking average energy requirement of 2200 Kcal per capita per day, cereals alone are providing about 68 per cent of the 'total energy requirements. Above all, poverty itself is defined in terms of energy intake. Besides, available cereals were also providing 37.4 gms. of protein per capita per day which works to about 74.8 per cent of the total average per capita daily requirement of protein of 50 gms. (Working Group, Ministry of Agriculture, 1994).
As far as production of cereals is concerned, it is matter of great satisfaction that India has achieved self sufficiency, more or less on a sustainable basis. There may be a decline in production once in a while due to climatic factors but gone are the days when frequent famines in some part or other of the country were not too uncommon and were known to have taken a toll of million of lives. The pre-independence era was also characterised by an all pervading hunger among a large section of the population. It was estimated by the Famine Inquiry Commission in 1945 that as many as 30 per cent of the population remained hungry. The British had not much time for removal of hunger through increased cereals production. They were content with dealing with intermediaries and were only interested in Indian Agriculture producing raw material for their mills back home. Such raw material had to be produced even if it meant, for example, transforming paddy fields into robin dye fields. The intermediaries, in turn, were great exploiters and had no interest in either investing or even encouraging the cultivator to raise the harvests. It is, therefore, no wonder that the well known economic historian Daniel Thorner observes that "when the British withdrew from India in 1947, they left the country with perhaps the world's most refractory land problem. For the upper classes who were in a position to collect rents, lend out money at interest or trade in agricultural commodities, the returns were so high that there was little incentive to invest in cultivation proper. The vast majority of cultivators never had a chance to accumulate for themselves enough capital with which to become capitalist farmers". (P.C. Joshi in India's Economic Development Strategies, Ed. Mongia & Vyas, 1986). The extremely unjust land tenure system accompanied by the heavy taxation of impoverished agricultural sector contributed to "the permanent poverty of the Indian people".
India was importing substantial quantities of cereals even after independence. Some bridging imports become necessary even now but that now-a-days happens once in 4-5 years and the proportion of imported grains is only a small fraction of what is indigenously produced, even during the years of drought as can be seen from Table No. 7.
Table 7 PRODUCTION AND IMPORT OF CEREAL
(in million tonnes) | |||
Year |
Total Production |
Net Import |
Percentage of |
1951 |
42.4 |
4.1 |
9.67 |
1955 |
57.1 |
0.6 |
1.05 |
1960 |
64.9 |
5.1 |
7.86 |
1965 |
76.9 |
7.6 |
9.62 |
1970 |
87.8 |
3.6 |
4.10 |
1975 |
89.8 |
7.5 |
8.35 |
1980 |
101.1 |
0.5 |
- |
1985 |
133.6 |
0.3 |
- |
1990 |
158.4 |
Neg |
- |
1993 |
166.4 |
2.4 |
1.44 |
Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture (1992).
It can be observed from above table that in 1951, India imported as high as 9.67 percent of domestic production of cereals which proportion was repeated only in 1965 when the country had a very bad harvest due to drought. In recent years import of wheat & rice was made in 1988 (2 million tonnes of wheat and 0.8 million tonnes of rice) and in 1992-93 (3 million tonnes of wheat and 0.14 million tonnes of rice) and these quantities were only a small proportion of domestic production of cereals.
Fluctuations in Cereals Production
It is no doubt a remarkable achievement to increase the cereal production by more than three times between 1951 and 1993. Net cereal protection went up from 40.1 million tonnes in 1951 to 145.6 million tonnes in 1993, the increase being 263 per cent over 42 years. (Reference Table 8).
Agriculture almost all over the world suffers from fluctuating yields and Indian agriculture is also very much characterized by substantial fluctuations in production. In fact, depending on the cycle of good and poor monsoon rains, the agricultural production, especially that of cereals, also displays peaks and troughs and in between increasing or decreasing trends. Such fluctuations are prevailing in recent years also and if we observe the net production of cereals and their per capita availability, as shown in Table 8, the effect of such fluctuations will become evident:
Table 8 PRODUCTION & AVAILABILITY OF CEREALS IN RECENT YEARS
Year |
Population |
Net |
Net |
Change in |
Net Per |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
1988 |
799.2 |
113.2 |
2.3 |
(-) 4.6 |
411.8 |
1989 |
815.8 |
136.6 |
0.8 |
(+) 2.6 |
452.6 |
1990 |
832.6 |
138.4 |
Neg. |
(+) 62 |
435.3 |
1991 |
851.7 |
141.9 |
(-) 0 6 |
(-) 4.4 |
468.5 |
1992 |
867.8 |
135.6 |
0.8 |
(-) 1.5 |
435.6 |
1993 |
883.9 |
145.6 |
2.4 |
(+) 9.6 |
429.0 |
Note : Net Production has been taken as 87.5 per cent of gross production.
Source: Economic Survey, 1993-94.
It will be observed from the above table that even in recent period of last six years, the net per capita availability of cereals has seen wide fluctuations. After the drought year 1987-88, it increased for 452.6 gins/capita/day in 1989, only to decline to 435.3 gms in the following year and then reach a high of 468.5 gms in 1991. It has again declined in 1992 and 1993. In fact, if we examine the per capita availability of cereals since 1951, it is seen that the availability was over 400 gms only in 1964, 1965, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1974, 1978, 1981, 1982 and from 1984 onward, it was always over 400 gms, the lowest during 19841993 being 411.8 gms in 1988, the year following one of the worst droughts in recent history. This analysis indicate that per capita availability of cereals has substantially improved over the years, especially since 1988. Since the net availability has been calculated after adjusting for imports/exports as also change in government stocks, it can be safely presumed that availability picture can work as a proxy for consumption of cereals in India. It, therefore, follows that the per capita consumption of cereals has vasty improved over the years and since a well off household cannot overconsume cereals, infect it will consume less on its income increasing, the consumption of cereals amongst even poor households must have substantially improved. Whether such consumption was equal to or above the recommended dietary intake (RDI) or not, is now required to be examined.
Average daily per capita net availability of energy (Kcal) and protein from different food items during the biennium 1991-93 has been worked out by the Inter-Ministerial Working Group set up by the Ministry of Agriculture (April 1994) by averaging the production for the biennium 1991-93, arriving at net availability by assigning certain reduction percentage to cover seed, feed and wastages and assigning the energy and protein values to each. The picture that emerges is given in Table No. 9.
Table No. 9 AVAILABILITY OF FOODSTUFFS FOR CONSUMPTION (TRIENNIUM 1991-93)
Food Item |
Total |
Daily Per |
Daily Per |
Daily Per |
Rice |
62.78 |
198.20 |
686 |
13.5 |
Wheat |
47.48 |
149.90 |
519 |
17.7 |
Coarse Grains |
27.12 |
85.62 |
296 |
6.2 |
Sub GP Total |
139.38 |
433.72 |
1501 |
37.4 |
Pulses |
11.30 |
35.68 |
123 |
7.5 |
Edible Oils |
6.20 |
19.57 |
176 |
0.0 |
Spices |
1.87 |
5.90 |
14 |
0.6 |
Cashew nuts |
0.29 |
0.92 |
5 |
0.2 |
Fruits |
24.12 |
76.15 |
57 |
0.8 |
Vegetables |
43.02 |
135.82 |
84 |
3.5 |
Fish |
3.09 |
9.76 |
10 |
1.7 |
Meat |
3.08 |
9.72 |
11 |
2.0 |
Milk |
53.77 |
169.76 |
161 |
6.5 |
Eggs |
1.05 |
3.31 |
6 |
4.6 |
Sugar |
11.71 |
36.96 |
147 |
0.0 |
Jaggery |
8.65 |
~ 27.31 |
106 |
0.1 |
Grand Total |
305.53 |
964.58 |
2400 |
64.9 |
Sources : Working Group, Ministry of Agriculture, April, 1994.
It can be observed from the above table that against the average normative average requirement of energy for the entire population i.e. 2200 Kcal, the availability during the biennium 1991-93 has been 2400 and against the average normative protein requirement of 50 gms per capita per day, the availability has been 64.9 gms. The Working Group has also observed that the energy value of 64.9 gms of protein is 260 Kcal, a highly satisfactory Protein-Energy percentage of 9.2.
It will be also observed from the above table that 1501 Kcal energy was being available from cereals alone and another 123 Kcal from pulses, i.e. a total of 1624 Kcal from foodgrains. However, the Working Group observed that "with increasing production of fruits and vegetables and food of animal origin (milk, eggs, fish, meat)., the average per capita demand for foodgrains (both cereals and pulses) will remain stagnant or decline and the net daily average per capita normative requirements of our population for foodgrains (cereals and pulses) is not expected to exceed 1450 Kcal (i.e. 419 gms. at physiological level and 493 gms at production) during the rest of the current decade". The Working Group proceeded to explain away the excess scenario. "It can be inferred that the quantities of foodgrains stocks carried over by surplus farmers, households, traders and processors must have increased". (Working Group, Ministry of Agriculture, April, 1994).
If 1450 Kcal of energy from foodgrains in adopted as suggested by the Working Group, it may be considered that 120 Kcal or 35 gm/capita/day was available from the pulses and the rest i.e. 1330 Kcal from, 383 gms of cereals.
It is proposed to break foodgrain separately into cereals and pulses because while there can be over consumption of pulses by comparatively better off households, no such over consumption will normally take place in case of cereals and average availability can be truly representative of all the people in the country.
The production of rice, wheat and coarse grains totaling to production of cereals has been as shown below:
Table No. 10 PRODUCTION OF CEREALS
(in million tonnes) | ||||
Year |
Rice |
Wheat |
Coarse Grain |
Total Cereals |
1951 |
20.58 |
6.46 |
15.38 |
42.42 |
1961 |
34.58 |
11.00 |
23.74 |
69.32 |
1965 |
39.31 |
12.76 |
25.37 |
76.94 |
1975 |
39.58 |
24.10 |
26.13 |
89.81 |
1985 |
58.34 |
44.07 |
31.17 |
133.58 |
1988 |
56.86 |
46.17 |
26.36 |
129.39 |
1989 |
70.49 |
54.11 |
31.41 |
156.01 |
1990 |
73.57 |
49.85 |
34.76 |
158.38 |
1991 |
74.59 |
54.52 |
33.05 |
162.16 |
1992 |
74.68 |
55.14 |
25.99 |
156.36 |
1993 |
72.61 |
52.76 |
37.04 |
166.41 |
1994 |
76.82 |
57.80 |
31.06 |
165.68 |
likely |
Source: Directorate of Economics & Politics, Ministry of Agriculture, GOI, May, 1992.
Of the total production of cereals given above, what quantities are available for consumption at physiological level ? It is unexceptionable that some quantities are lost at farm level, transportation and storage at various levels and even at the kitchen level. Nutrition Advisory Committees or Expert Group set up by the Indian Council of Medical Research, which have been making their recommendations on the Dietary Allowances for various nutrients since 1944 have been adopting a certain percentage deduction. The latest recommendations available are those made by the Expert Group in 1990. In respect of cereals they have recommended an intake of 396 gins/capita/day at physiological level. In order to make available this, quantity required at retail and production level is 436 and 490 gms. respectively. It means that a deduction of 23.7 per cent has to be made from production figures to arrive at the quantity available for consumption at physiological level. We may call it scenario I.
The most recent Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Foodgrains Requirement up to 2000 AD set up by the Ministry of Agriculture (Apr., 1994) has however suggested a deduction of 15% in case of cereals. Although the report does not mention the considerations that have gone into for adopting this standard, perhaps the improvement in transportation and storage infrastructure and services coupled with sustained campaign to reduce post-harvest losses has made this group arrive at a figure of 15 per cent. While at the National Institute of Nutrition, Hyderabad, I had detailed discussions on this topic with the Director, Dr. Vinodini Reddy. It so happened that she was a member of the Working Group set up by the Ministry of Agriculture (April 1994) as also of the Expert Groups of ICMR. It transpired that the Nutrition Advisory Committees/ Expert Group of ICMR did not have their own data on the deduction factor to be used and they simply adopted a percentage suggested by the Ministry of Agriculture. She felt that if the Ministry of Agriculture is now suggesting a reduction of 15% from production stage to physiological stage, there may be no objection to that. As discussed a couple of paragraphs earlier, the requirements of cereals adopted by this group was 383 gins/capita/day. Let us call this Scenario II.
The quantity of cereals available for actual consumption at physiological level during last 3 years has now been calculated adopting the two sets of reduction factors and per capita daily requirements. Two scenarios about adequacy of cereals availability that emerge are tabulated below:
Table No. 11 PHYSIOLOGICAL LEVEL AVAILABILITY AND REQUIREMENT OF CEREALS
(Qty. in million tonnes) | |||||||
Year |
Total |
Scenario I |
Scenario II | ||||
Cereal Prod. |
Availability with |
Availability after |
Requirement @ |
Availability with |
Availability after |
Requirement @ | |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
1991 |
162.16 |
123.73 |
127.83 |
123.10 |
137.84 |
141.94 |
119.56 |
1992 |
156.36 |
119.30 |
122.00 |
125.36 |
133.91 |
136.60 |
121.25 |
1993 |
166.41 |
126.97 |
119.77 |
141.45 |
141.45 |
134.25 |
123.57 |
Note: Adjustment for net imports and change in Govt. Stocks has been adopted from Economic Survey, 1993-94.
Source:
1. Population: Working Group Representative (Min. of Agriculture, 1994)
2. Food Production: ESA, Ministry of Agriculture.
3. Reduction Factor 23.7% ICMR, 1990.
4. Reduction Factor 15% Working Group Repd. (Min. of Agriculture).
5. Requirement @ 396 ICMR (1990).
6. Requirement @ 383 Working Group, Min.of Agriculture (1994).
An analysis of the data given in the Table No. 11 above for the last three years (1991-93) throws up, as expected, two different pictures under the two different scenarios and these are discussed below:
Scenario I
A comparison of data in Col.4 and Col.5 indicates that net availability of cereals for physiological consumption in 1991 was more than the requirement and worked out to 103.8 per cent of the requirement. In the following year, 1992, the net availability was slightly less than the requirement, being 97.3 per cent. In 1993, the availability declined and was only 84.7 per cent of the requirement. The picture is thus a mixed one, little more in 1991, slightly less in 1992 and still lesser in 1993. The stocks held back and in the pipe line may also be making some difference as these are never same in all the years. Of course, change in stocks held by the government has already have taken care of in Cols 4 along with net imports. However, no estimates of stocks held back by surplus farmers, traders and processors are maintained. As far as traders are concerned, and also surplus farmers to some extent, the stocks held back by them are higher in the years of shortages and lower in the year of plenty. We can, therefore, total up the net availability and requirement from the three years 1991-93. It transpires that total availability of cereals during this biennium was 369.60 million tonnes whereas requirements was 389.91 million tonnes. This, with average satisfaction level of about 95 percent, is a fairly comfortable situation even though stiffer standards of both reduction factor and higher norms of per capita consumption have been used. In other words, against the recommended daily per capita consumption of 396 gms of cereals, the average net availability in the three year period has been 376 gms.
Scenario II
While scenario I was based on the reduction factor of 23.7 per cent from production to physiological consumption level and daily per capita consumptional requirement of 396 gms (ICMR, 1990), Scenario II is based on the recent report of the inter-ministerial Working Group (Ministry of Agriculture, April, 1994) which has used a reduction factor of 15 per cent and recommended an average daily per capita consumptional requirement of 383 gms for cereals for a period up to 2000 AD. Columns 7 and ~ in Table No.11 can be compared to examine the availability and requirement of cereals under this Scenario. It will be observed that in all the three years, 1991-93, the net availability has been substantially higher than the requirement. It has, in fact been 119.2, 112.7 & 108.6 per cent of the requirement. If we take a total picture of the three year period, the net availability of cereals has been 412.79 million tonnes or, in other words, the availability has been 113.4 per cent of the requirement. This gives an exceedingly bright picture but some questions need to be answered before the report of this recent Working Group can be finally accepted by the Working Group which is likely to be set up by the Indian Planning Commission to go into the demand and supply figures for foodgrains at a higher and more technical level. Some of the questions that may be posed are: What is the basis for adopting reduction factor of 15 per cent ? While storage and transportation facilities have gone up, the higher production of animal based food items may also have increased the quantum of cereals going into feed sector. Further, if about 13 per cent cereals are being produced over and above the nutritional requirements and exports are insignificant, are the Indians over consuming the cereals ? The explanation sought to be given is that 'carried over stocks at the level of households, surplus farmers and traders must have increased substantially during recent years in too simplistic. Foodgrain except national buffers, are not normally stored by anybody even after the next harvest. During years of good production and comfortable availability, as is the situation during these three years, nobody, hoards foodgrains unnecessarily and in fact, the year end stocks should in all probability, be very small and of the same quantum in all the three such years. Lastly, cereals do not lend themselves to over consumption by better off households. While poor households would increase their consumption up to nutritional standards and even beyond that slightly due to non-availability and non-access to other food items, this will be more than compensated by the decline in the quantity of cereals consumed by households whose incomes are on the upswing. This assumption is unexceptionable and the following data on share of total consumer expenditure of Quintiles in urban and rural areas (National Sample Survey Organisation, Planning Commission, Govt. of India, 43rd Round-July 1987 to June 1988) brings this out quite clearly.
Household Food Security & Consumption Expenditure
Distribution of per capita monthly consumer expenditure obtained by NSSO during their 43rd Round (Jul 87-June 88) is given below separately for rural and urban areas:
Table No. 12 SHARE OF TOTAL MONTHLY CONSUMER EXPENDITURE
Quantities |
Cereal |
Pulses, Vegetable, |
Food goods |
Non food goods |
Fuel & Light |
Other misc. |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
Rural India | ||||||
Q1 |
41.52 |
13.74 |
18.51 |
7.25 |
10.45 |
6.28 |
Q2 |
36.93 |
14.01 |
20.32 |
9.30 |
9.23 |
7.18 |
Q3 |
32.13 |
13.77 |
22.08 |
11.59 |
8.49 |
8.10 |
Q4 |
26.50 |
13.15 |
23.52 |
15.21 |
7.71 |
9.35 |
Q5 |
16.17 |
10.56 |
22.85 |
28.75 |
5.55 |
11.99 |
Urban India | ||||||
Q1 |
24.48 |
14.76 |
25.37 |
12.35 |
8.78 |
11.04 |
Q2 |
21.90 |
14.48 |
25.86 |
13.92 |
8.41 |
12.14 |
Q3 |
19.24 |
14.17 |
26.53 |
15.60 |
7.93 |
13.05 |
Q4 |
16.93 |
13.96 |
27.07 |
17.18 |
7.51 |
13.77 |
Q5 |
14.75 |
13.50 |
27.22 |
18.99 |
7.12 |
14.94 |
Source: NSSO, 43rd Round (Jul 87-June 88).
It is quite apparent from above that the Quintile one, the lowest income group in rural areas, spends as high as 41.52 per cent of their incomes on cereals, whereas the highest spends only 16.17 per cents. In urban areas, the corresponding shares are 24.48 and 14.75 per cent. As incomes rise the household first try to earmark larger share of income to purchase cereals and stave off the hunger and then start spending more on pulses, foods from animal origin, food goods and other goods and services.
The NSSO data of various rounds as given below, on the other hand, shows as to how the share of expenditure on cereals has been going down both in Rural and Urban areas.
Table No.13 SHARE OF MONTHLY EXPENDITURE IN CEREAL OVER A PERIOD
Rural Period |
Rural Areas |
Urban Areas | ||||
Cereals |
PVM |
Others |
Cereals |
PVM |
Others | |
27 (Oct.72-Sep.73) |
40.77 |
9.98 |
49.25 |
23.28 |
11.03 |
65.69 |
32 (Jul.77-Jun.78) |
32.81 |
10.27 |
56.92 |
20.43 |
11.43 |
68.14 |
38 (Jan-Dec.83) |
32.41 |
11.26 |
56.33 |
19.56 |
11.81 |
68.63 |
43 (Jul.87-Jun.88) |
26.12 |
12.40 |
61.48 |
14.78 |
12.16 |
73.06 |
44 (Jul.88-Jun.89) |
26.14 |
12.96 |
60.90 |
15.44 |
12.58 |
71.93 |
45 (Jul.89-Jun.90) |
23.95 |
13.44 |
62.61 |
14.19 |
12.12 |
73.69 |
Source: NSSO, 27th 45th Round. Note: PVM group includes pulses, vegetables and milk etc.
The macro national level trends indicated by the Tables 12 and 13 above, more or less hold good for various states. To illustrate, the table below gives the proportion of per capita monthly consumer expenditure for three selected states. Selected states are Punjab (the state with highest per capita income and least proportion of population below poverty line), Maharashtra (the state in the middle of the rankings of states by proportion of people below poverty line) and Orissa (the state with the maximum proportion of poor. To save space, data on only three relevant groups of consumer expenditure out of six viz. cereals, PVM and food goods is being given:
Table No. 14 DISTRIBUTION OF PER CAPITA MONTHLY CONSUMER EXPENDITURE IN PUNJAB, MAHARASHTRA & ORISSA
Round |
Punjab (Least poor) |
Maharashtra (Middle) |
Orissa (poorest) | ||||||
No/Yr. |
Cer. |
PVM |
FG |
Cer. |
PVM |
FG |
Cer. |
PVM |
FG |
27/72-73 |
16.75 |
7.85 |
42.61 |
38.87 |
5.17 |
22.75 |
52.18 |
11.02 |
13.07 |
32/77-78 |
15.93 |
7.29 |
37.18 |
23.09 |
8.41 |
18.84 |
49.49 |
10.72 |
12.50 |
38/1983 |
14.85 |
8.17 |
37.23 |
25.60 |
12.12 |
25.59 |
50.48 |
11.32 |
15.29 |
43/87-88 |
10.99 |
7.98 |
30.12 |
18.97 |
12.82 |
24.06 |
41.39 |
13.68 |
13.97 |
44/88-89 |
11.78 |
8.96 |
28.38' |
20.72 |
13.33 |
24.87 |
39.36 |
14.94 |
14.89 |
45/89-90 |
10.24 |
8.72 |
28.80 |
18.81 |
14.03 |
26.19 |
39.17 |
16.39 |
15.29 |
Source: NSS, 27th to 45th Round
It can be observed from the above table that the percentage of expenditure on cereals has come down in all the three states, the decline being approximately 39% in Punjab, 20% in Maharashtra and 25% in Orissa. Lower base of only 16.75% expenditure and a steep decline of 39% in Punjab is quite understandable, it being a very well off state in all aspects, Orissa, the poor state on the other hand, had even at the latest round (1989-90), a high proportion of expenditure on cereals (39.17%) which in fact was obtainable in middle ranking states of Maharashtra some 18 years back in 1972-73.
Some very significant conclusions can be drawn from the data shown in the Tables 12 to 14. These are:
(a) Between Oct. 72 and June 90, roughly about a period of 18 years, the proportion of monthly house hold expenditure on cereals declined in rural areas from 40.77% to 23.95% i.e., a drop of more than 70 per cent. In the same period, the decline in urban areas was from 23.08% to 14.19% i.e. by 63 per cent. These declines point to general prosperity and improved household food security as people have been able to spare more money for other consumption items. At the same time, while there may have been short spells of shortage of foodgrains resulting in higher open market prices, the public distribution system and the 'food for work type' or plain and simple employment generation schemes, must have helped people to tide over such periods of stresses. There were no serious reports of starvation, food-shortage driven migration and famine. It is also to be appreciated that any situation of food shortage and starvation would not go unnoticed in India because of a vigorous and free press and political parties who are on the look out of any issue on which the party in power can be embarrassed.
(b) Higher percentage of monthly consumer expedition on cereals in the rural areas as compared to urban areas, confirms that the problem of poverty is much more pronounced there, forcing people to spend much more on cereals.
(c) With decline in expenditure on cereals, the expenditure on PVM (Pulses, Vegetables, Milk, Eggs, Mutton etc.) group has shown an increase in rural areas. This is a welcome sign and indicates movement towards a more balanced diet. In urban areas, the increase in the share of expenditure on PVM group has been rather modest, just about 10 per cent as compared to about 35 per cent in rural areas. It indicates the rural households are able to diversify their diets much more than their counterparts in urban areas. However this substantially bigger increase in rural areas could also be on account of some food items, like seasonal fruits, nonmarketed green or other vegetables, etc. which were consumed without having to buy them are now getting marketed and households have to pay for them, In this connection, the example of mangoes in Indo-Gangetic belt, stretching from Delhi to West Bengal comes to mind. Even some 40-45 years back, the whole village used to spend hot summer days in Mango groves and families used to eat traditional small varieties of mangoes from the buckets where mangoes used to be soaked in water. All the mango groves have now been converted into commercialised mango orchards and the entire orchards are sold out to businessmen well in advance, whose guards will not allow even a single mango to be eaten by children of the villages free of cost. This again seems to be the price that has to be paid for market driven economic development and with income levels not rising fast enough, even the small luxuries in life like, mangoes, are getting beyond the reach of poor households.
The long and short of this exercise is that cereals availability is now more than required if the report of the Working Group (Ministry of Agriculture, Apr. 194) is to be followed. This cereals availability is almost 95 per cent of the required even if the old standards of the Expert Group (ICMR, 1990) regarding the reduction factor between production and consumption and per capita daily requirement of cereals are adopted. Adequate availability of cereals would have a highly positive impact on household food and nutrition security. It is hoped that the percentage of people living below poverty line will sharply decline when the Planning Commission of India revises its earlier estimates of 1987-88. It is also hoped that the consumption pattern and the extent of malnutrition which is presently available from the recent surveys conducted by the National Nutrition Monitoring Bureau of the National Institute of Nutrition will also throw up a different and much more brighter picture when the results as compared to the one given by their earlier two rounds of surveys during 1975-79 and then 1988-90.
Apart from the NSSO data, we also have data thrown up on expenditure pattern by the surveys conducted by the National Nutrition Monitoring Board of the NIN. It has been found that 63.8 per cent of expenditure was on food items in rural areas and it was 57.1 percent in urban areas. (Nutrition Trends in India NIN, 1993).
EXPEDITURE PATTERN
The picture thrown up by NNMB surveys of 1991 naturally is not exactly the same as shown by NSSO surveys. Further, in the NSSO data, expenditure has been shown separately for following food-related groups-cereals, PVM and food goods. In NNMB surveys the entire expenditure on food as a whole has been clubbed together. The NSSO surveys show 60.96% as the above mentioned three food-related groups for rural areas during Jul.89-Jnu.90 whereas NNMB surveys indicates expenditure as food as 68%. Similarly, for urban areas too, NSSO figure is 51.6% whereas NNMB figure is 57.1%. Thus, even though those two surveys have been done by two different organisations with different sample families, the expenditure pattern is not too different and both indicate more or less the same situation prevailing in rural and urban areas.
The extent of consumption of cereals and other food items by people against recommended dietary intake (RDI) should have a direct correlation with extent of poverty amongst such people. However, the consumption data culled from the NNMB surveys in various states does not show such correlation, when compared with poverty ranking of the states:
Consumption of Foodstuffs & Poverty
It can be observed from the above figure that consumption of cereals is exactly equal to RDI (as given in Table 30) in case of Kerala whereas it is higher than RDI is all the states shown here. What is surprising is that consumption of cereals at 628 gms/cu/day in Orissa is not only very much higher than RDI of 460 gms/cu/day, but it happens to be highest in the country. How is this when Orissa had 44.7% of its of people living below poverty line ? Of course, Orissa is somewhat surplus in foodgrains production but in a single zone national market, it does not mean all the cereals produced in Orissa are consumed there itself. Similarly, consumption of cereals in Bihar at 481 gms is very much higher than RDI, although Bihar is not only the second most poor state in the country (from the point of view of proportion of people below poverty line) but is a highly deficit state also. The consumption surveys of NNMB, therefore, cannot be taken on their face value, the only purpose they serve is to reiterate that cereals availability and consumption situation is quite comfortable.
Consumption of as high as 494 gms cereals per capita per day in Punjab also is not easily explainable. An average Punjabi is known to consume quite a lot of milk (confirmed by NNMB survey being highest in the country at 396 gms against RDI of 150 gms) and milk products, vegetables, fruits etc. but notwithstanding this, it appears that an average person in Punjab is consuming lot of cereals also perhaps for maintaining his or her high vigour. Residents of Punjab are also known to be taller and heavier than average Indian. But consumption of substantially higher quantity of cereals even by an average resident from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa and most of the other states (not shown in figure 2. above) raises a question whether the RDI of 460 gms/cu/day at physiological level requires fresh examination and revision. The RDI prescribed for Indians should also have some parity with that recommended for people in at least neighbouring countries, especially China. Incidentally, as shown in Table 1, the Dietary Energy Supply for average Chinese in terms of calories per capita per day during the period of 1986-86 was as high as 2637 (FAO Report, 1990-92).
That the consumption of pulses is much less than RDI is clearly brought out. Surprisingly, Orissa, the bottom state in poverty scale, has consumption of pulses more or less equal to the RDI level. It is lower than RDI even in Punjab. Consumption of pulses is higher than RDI only in Uttar Pradesh (45 gms) and Madhya Pradesh (43 gms/cu/day).
Milk consumption is higher than RDI only in case of Punjab. In all the other states it is substantially lower than RDI. In case of Kerala also, a state with fairly low proportion of poor and with fairly high per capita income as also the highest literacy, has an extremely low milk intake of 18 gms against recommended 150 gm/cu/day.
The consumption of fats & oils also is lagging behind the RDI. Against RDI of 20 gms/cu/day, it is 17 and 14 even for Punjab and Kerala respectively but again, rather surprisingly, 16 for Orissa. It is only 4 for Uttar Pradesh and 7 for Bihar. In fact, consumption of fats and oils is higher than RDI only in case of Gujarat (not shown here), 21 gins/capita/day.
Consumption pattern surveys of the NNMB, therefore, do not help very much is finding out the actual picture about consumption of even these four food items. The problem perhaps was that these were carried out only in nine states, samples were small and response of the respondent was probably inaccurate. It is not improbable that the respondents either had no definite idea of the quantity of these items consumed in the family or even may have indicated inflated quantities to keep up their social prestige in the village community. However, as far as consumption of cereals is concerned, these surveys reconfirm the picture of at least fairly comfortable availability.
