Recent rainfall maintained adequate moisture condition for the 1999 wheat and barley crops but below-normal temperatures delayed somewhat the development of the crops now in the vegetative stage. However, additional timely rains will be required during the remainder of the growing season to avert declines in crop yield.
Production of cereals in 1998 increased markedly to more than 3 million tonnes from a drought-reduced harvest of 1.1 million tonnes in 1997 as a result of favourable weather conditions and larger area sown. Cereal imports excluding semolina in 1998/99 (July/June) are forecast at 5.5 million tonnes, about 400 000 tonnes less than in the previous year.
Early prospects for the wheat (mainly irrigated) and barley crops to be harvested from mid-April are favourable. Wheat and maize production in 1998 is estimated to have slightly increased to 6.1 million tonnes and 6 million tonnes, respectively. In contrast, reflecting a sharp reduction in the area sown, the output from the paddy crop in 1998 declined by more than 1 million tonnes to 4.45 million tonnes.
Imports of wheat and wheat flour in 1998/99 (July/June) are forecast at 7.2 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from previous year. Coarse grain imports (mostly maize) are forecast also unchanged from previous year at 3.2 million tonnes.
Widespread moderate rains in mid-January improved moisture conditions for the 1999 winter grain crops previously stressed by unfavourable weather. Dry weather conditions returned recently over winter grain areas but lower than normal temperatures limited crop stress. Widespread timely rains will be needed in the coming months to facilitate a normal crop development. The area sown to wheat and barley is reported to be lower than the average for the previous five years.
Production of cereals in 1998, estimated at 6.6 million tonnes, was 63 percent higher than the drought-affected crop of 4.1 million tonnes in 1997. Imports of wheat and wheat flour in 1998/99 (July/June) are forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, some 28 percent lower than last year.
Prospects for the 1999 winter grain crop to be harvested from May are currently favourable. Cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the growing season is reported to be above normal particularly in the major producing northern areas. The area sown to cereals, mainly wheat, in 1998/99 season is currently estimated at 1.3 million hectares, slightly lower than the target due to inadequate rainfall in the central cereal growing areas at sowing time. However, use of high quality seeds and adequate availability of fertilizers should result in higher cereal yields. Pasture conditions are satisfactory particularly in northern area.
Production of cereals in 1998 increased by about 58 percent to 1.7 million tonnes, reflecting overall favourable growing conditions. Imports of wheat in 1998/99 (July/June) are forecast at 900 000 tonnes, down 400 000 tonnes compared to previous year. By contrast, coarse grains imports are forecast to increase by some 80 000 tonnes to 600 000 tonnes.
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