Serious concern mounts over deteriorating food situation in Somalia, where another poor "Deyr" crop is expected, the sixth in succession. The number of people in search of food and water is increasing, particularly from the worst affected regions of Bay and Bakol. In many areas, renewed fighting has aggravated an already precarious situation. Elsewhere in Eastern Africa, a severely reduced Vuli harvest in Tanzania has increased the number of vulnerable people, whilst in Kenya food shortages due to drought are reported in eastern parts despite a satisfactory situation nationally .
Good prospects for crops in southern Africa, following favourable rains in recent months. If conditions continue, a recovery in production is anticipated in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Zambia, and a good harvest is in prospect in Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland. Food supplies are expected to remain tight in Angola due to renewed fighting and also in Zambia where drought reduced production last year.
Food production remains low in Liberia and Sierra Leone due to continuing insecurity, which has also affected agriculture in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Republic of Congo. While a record crop was gathered in the Sahel in 1998, output decreased in Guinea Bissau following civil disturbances.
In Asia, the outlook for winter grains is mixed. In China, drought last autumn affected winter grains, but favourable weather in India will result in a good wheat harvest. A recovery in rice production is expected in Indonesia, where a combination of El Niño drought and the financial crisis last year seriously compromised food security. Food security in Afghanistan and Korea DPR remains fragile as domestic production remains heavily constrained by lack of essential inputs. In Iraq, despite some improvement in the overall food position following the implementation of the oil-for-food deal, malnutrition still remains a serious problem.
Hurricane "Mitch" wrecks havoc in Central America, destroying around 400 000 tonnes of maize in Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala. No recovery is expected from the severely reduced production in 1997. In the Caribbean, 1998 paddy production was below average in Cuba and the Dominican Republic following hurricane "Georges". In South America, 1998 wheat production fell due to reduced planting and unfavourable weather.
In the CIS, the early outlook for 1999 wheat and rye is uncertain, as crops were planted in dry conditions. Crops are in reasonable condition in Ukraine, though in the Russian Federation conditions on some 2 million hectares of the 13 million planted are reported to be poor. The overall food situation remains stable due to a favourable harvest last year and large carry over stocks.
Early indications point to a reduced 1999 winter grains output in Europe, following reduced plantings in the EC and several eastern European countries.
The United States winter wheat area has fallen by 7 percent to the lowest level since 1972/73, because of poor price prospects. Crop conditions remain favourable so far.
Another above average cereal crop has been harvested in Australia in 1998. Prospects are good for the small summer coarse grains crop for harvest in 1999.