FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages No.5, November 1999

SOUTH AMERICA

ARGENTINA (3 November)

Recent light rains have favoured the developing 1999/2000 wheat crop for harvesting from November. The crop had been suffering from lack of rain, particularly in the northern provinces of Chaco and Entre Rios. By contrast, soil moisture conditions in the main producing areas of Buenos Aires and La Pampa provinces are reported adequate. Early production forecasts point out to an increase from last year's below-average 11.5 million tonnes to a near-average 13 million tonnes, mainly as a result of enlarged plantings. Sowing of the 1999/2000 maize crop is underway. The area planted is forecast to increase by 8 to 10 percent from 1998/99 average plantings. Expanded plantings are anticipated particularly in the provinces of Entre Rios and Santa Fe. By mid-October, about 33 percent of intended plantings had been sown which compares to 22 percent the year before. Planting of the 1999/2000 paddy crop is underway. The area planted is expected to decline considerably from last year, principally in the main growing areas of Corriente and Entre Rios, mostly as result of a constraint in exports to neighbouring countries.

BOLIVIA (3 November)

Harvesting of the 1999 winter wheat crop has been completed and output for the year is estimated at 141�000 tonnes, which compares to last year's 164�000 tonnes and to the 1997 crop of 187�000 tonnes. This is due to dry weather particularly during the crop development phase which has contributed to lower than average yields. Recent rains in the highlands and in some of the highland valleys have favoured sowing of the 1999/2000 first season cereal and potato crops, while planting is being delayed in the southern parts because of insufficient precipitation. Wheat imports in the 1999/2000 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 260�000 tonnes, some 10 percent above the previous year. Some 10�000 tonnes of food aid have been received against pledges so far of 169�000 tonnes.

BRAZIL (2 November)

Harvesting of the 1999 wheat crop in the main producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul has benefited from relative dry hot weather. Harvesting operations are also proceeding well in other growing states. Production is officially forecast to increase from last year's 2.2 million tonnes to a slightly above-average 2.4 million tonnes. The dry weather, by contrast, has delayed planting of the 1999/2000 maize crop, particularly in the main growing central and southern areas. Some recent light rains are nevertheless reported, and timely normal rainfall is expected during the growing period. This should help achieve average yields. The area planted is forecast to expand from the previous year, largely as a result of improved domestic prices. Sowing of the 1999/2000 paddy crop has started and intended plantings should decline from the above-average level of the previous season, mainly as a result of credit constraints coupled with the strong competition of low priced imports from neighbouring countries.

CHILE (2 November)

Planting of the 1999/2000 wheat crop continues under generally dry weather conditions. Soil moisture conditions are still below average despite beneficial rains in September. Harvesting is due from December and a recovery from last year's severely drought affected crop is tentatively forecast. Planting of the 1999/2000 maize crop is also underway and plantings are expected to improve from the previous year's below-average level.

COLOMBIA (4 November)

Heavy rains and flooding in October have affected the country, particularly the Pacific coastal provinces in the south, where significant damage to housing and infrastructure is reported. Damage is also reported in some of the northern and Caribbean coastal areas. An assessment of damage to the agricultural sector has not been made available yet. Harvesting of the 1999/2000 first season maize crop had been completed when the adverse weather struck, and planting of the second season crop is underway. Despite possible losses incurred, aggregate maize output (both crops) is expected to be near average. A slightly above-average 1999 paddy output is estimated. This is due to the combination of enlarged plantings, as a result of attractive prices, and the abundant rains which have contributed to higher than average yields.

ECUADOR (2 November)

Following normal to abundant rains in September, harvesting of the 1999 second season maize, mostly white, has started under dry and cold weather conditions which are affecting plantings and livestock pastures in some parts. Some crops in the highlands have been affected by frosts. Despite possible damage to crops, the 1999 maize output is provisionally estimated at a near-average 590�000 tonnes, a significant increase from the El Ni�o severely affected 1997/98 crop when only 380�000 tonnes were collected. Harvesting of the 1999 second season paddy crop has also started and output for the year (both crops) is tentatively estimated at an average 1.2 million tonnes (unmilled).

PERU (2 November)

Harvesting of the 1999 wheat crop has been virtually completed under generally dry weather. Output is estimated at 120�000 tonnes which compares to the last 5-year average of 134�000 tonnes. Harvesting of the 1999 yellow maize crop has also been practically completed and aggregate output (white and yellow) for the year is estimated at a slightly above-average 855�000 tonnes. A bumper paddy crop of 1.8 million tonnes has been collected, some 33 percent above the average.

URUGUAY (3 November)

Harvesting of the 1999/2000 wheat crop has started in some parts under generally dry weather. Early production forecasts point out to an above-average output of some 545�000 tonnes. Planting of the 1999/2000 coarse grain crops is underway and aggregate area planted is expected to be about average. Planting of the 2000 paddy crop, the main agricultural export, has also started and plantings are expected to decline from 1999 record level, largely as a consequence of an anticipated decline in exports to neighbouring countries.

VENEZUELA (3 November)

Heavy rains and flooding have affected harvesting of the 1999 coarse grain and paddy crops. Despite possible crop losses, maize output is anticipated at an average 1 million tonnes, while production of paddy is also provisionally estimated at a slightly below-average 673�000 tonnes.


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