FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.5 - November 2000 p. 2

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1996/97	1997/98	1998/99	1999/2000	2000/01 forecast	Change 2000/01 over 1999/2000
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )					(percentage)
Wheat	589	613	598	590	582	-1.4
Coarse grains	920	905	911	883	870	-1.5
Rice, milled	383	387	390	406	397	-2.3
(paddy)	(572)	(579)	(583)	(608)	(593)	-2.5
All cereals (incl. milled rice)	1 892	1 906	1 898	1 880	1 848	-1.7
Developing countries	1 025	1 005	1 039	1 034	993	-4.0
Developed countries	867	901	860	846	856	1.2
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	103	101	100	109	109	0.1
Coarse grains	91	89	94	103	104	1.3
Rice (milled)	19	28	25	23	24	4.8
All cereals	212	218	219	235	238	1.1
Developing countries	150	160	160	170	171	0.7
Developed countries	62	59	59	66	67	2.1
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	5.6	6.2	11.0	10.2	10.0	-2.2
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	575	591	590	597	600	0.4
Coarse grains	893	893	896	898	892	-0.6
Rice (milled)	381	383	391	403	403	0.2
All cereals	1 849	1 866	1 878	1 898	1 895	-0.1
Developing countries	1 107	1 110	1 137	1 153	1 149	-0.3
Developed countries	742	756	741	745	746	0.2
Per Caput Food Use	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Developing countries	172	172	173	173	173	-0.1
Developed countries	130	130	130	130	131	0.5
WORLD STOCKS 4/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	114	137	143	139	121	-13.2
Coarse grains	128	143	154	139	112	-19.2
Rice (milled)	56	55	57	62	55	-10.9
All cereals	298	335	354	340	288	-15.2
Developing countries	176	167	179	179	141	-21.0
Developed countries	122	168	175	161	147	-8.8
Stocks as % of world	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
cereal consumption	16.0	17.9	18.6	17.9	14.8
EXPORT PRICES 5/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	352	316	315	253	211 6/	-17.6 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	181	142	120	112	121 8/	7.1 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	135	112	95	91	79 8/	-11.2 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 5/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	12.8	11.7	9.3	13.7	16.2 8/	21.8 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Roots & tubers production 1/	377	360	385	386	387	0.3
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/	790	774	799	804	759	-5.5
Per caput production (kg.) 10/	224	216	219	217	203	-6.6
Cereal imports 2/	67.5	76.7	69.9	71.6	73.6	2.8
of which: Food aid	4.5	5.3	7.9	6.8	7.7	13.6
Proportion of cereal import	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
covered by food aid	6.6	6.9	11.3	9.5	10.5

SOURCE: FAO

Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.

1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.

2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.

3/ July/June shipments.

4/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years.

5/ July/June.

6/ Average of quotations for January-October 2000.

7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.

8/ Average of quotations for July-October 2000.

9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 460 in 1998), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.

10/ Includes rice on a milled basis.