Based on the revised figures for China, world cereal stocks by the close of the seasons ending in 2001 are now forecast to approach 640 million tonnes, down 52 million tonnes, or 7 percent from their opening levels and the smallest in four years. The expected drawdown this season reflects lower 2000 cereal production but higher anticipated utilization in 2000/01.
Since the previous report, the estimates of cereal carry-over stocks in China (Mainland) have been revised upward (see the box for more details). This revision resulted in a substantial increase in the estimates of China's inventories which, in turn, led to noticeably higher figures for global stocks than were reported previously. However, as shown in the table, neither the volume nor direction of annual variations in global stocks were changed significantly.
Seasons ending in
|
Before revisions
|
After revisions
|
|
(......... million tonnes ........)
|
|
1996
|
-55
|
-50
|
1997
|
40
|
46
|
1998
|
37
|
41
|
1999
|
18
|
25
|
2000
|
-14
|
-9
|
2001
|
-52
|
-52
|
In view of the revisions to the estimates of cereal stocks in China and, hence, to the world cereal stocks, the use and methodology underlying some of the main FAO global food security indicators, such as the global cereal stock-to-use ratio, are also being re-examined. The issues involved will be raised at the forthcoming session of the FAO's Committee on World Food Security (CFS) in May 2001. It must be stressed, however, that the validity of the analyses of market developments conducted in the past using these empirical indicators remains unaffected.
The one-time adjustment made to the historical series of cereal stocks in China
should not be perceived as either a reflection of or a cause for changes in
the market fundamentals. Because of recent policy changes in China, which have
been conditioned by the high costs associated with maintaining large stocks
and by new economic and social priorities, it is important to have more accurate
estimates of the level of stocks to better understand China's trade flows and
their impact on international cereal markets. Given the magnitude of the likely
decline in carryover cereal stocks during this season and new information, especially
concerning the level of on-farm stocks, it was considered appropriate to revise
the statistical data series on cereal stocks at this particular juncture to
levels deemed to be more realistic.
World stocks of wheat for crop years ending in 2001 are now put at 239 million tonnes, some 17 million tonnes, or 7 percent, below the previous year's level. Lower carryovers are expected in all five major exporters, except for the EC where higher production and stagnate exports could result in some 2 million tonnes rise in this season's total ending stocks in the Community. Among the other major wheat exporting countries, wheat inventories in the United States are forecast to decline the most, by some 6 million tonnes. Elsewhere, wheat stocks in China are forecast to fall by 12 million tonnes to 121 million tonnes, mostly because of smaller domestic production. However, wheat inventories are forecast to increase significantly in Pakistan and India because of record production.
Total coarse grain inventories for crop years ending in 2001 are now at 246 million tonnes, down 27 million tonnes, or 10 percent, from the previous year. The decline mainly results from an expected sharp fall in stocks held in China, where a drastic decline in its maize production in 2000 combined with continued large export sales could bring down its total end-of-season inventories to 133 million tonnes, some 21 million tonnes, or 14 percent, below this season's opening levels. Total stocks in major exporting countries are likely to remain at last year's levels, or around 77 million tonnes, mostly as a result of an increase in stocks in the United States because of a record maize crop in 2000. Except in Canada, where maize stocks are also forecast to decline, other major exporters are likely to end the season with the same level of inventories as last year.
Crop year ending in: | |||
1999 | 2000 estimate | 2001 forecast | |
(. . . . million tonnes . . . .)
|
|||
Wheat | 259.9 | 255.9 | 238.7 |
Coarse grains | 284.7 | 273.2 | 246.4 |
Rice (milled) | 155.6 | 162.1 | 154.5 |
TOTAL | 700.2 | 691.2 | 639.6 |
of which: | |||
Main exporters | 254.7 | 248.7 | 236.8 |
Others | 445.5 | 442.5 | 402.9 |
Global rice inventories at the end of the seasons in 2001 are forecast at 154.5 million tonnes, almost 8 million tonnes below their opening level. Most of the year-to-year reduction is expected to be concentrated in China, following a sizeable cut in production in 2000, combined with expectations of a stable domestic utilization and large exports this year. Carry-over stocks are also expected to fall in other important exporting countries that harvested smaller crops in 2000, especially Pakistan, Vietnam and the United States. India is also likely to cut its inventories, although much would depend on its ability to boost exports. By contrast, carry-over stocks are anticipated to rise somewhat in Thailand, mainly due to an anticipated contraction in foreign sales. Among importing countries, lower purchases by Indonesia may result in smaller inventories by the end of the season.