FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages No.3, June 2001

ASIA

AFGHANISTAN* (12 June)

The country is gripped by a grave food crisis, following the third successive year of below average crop production due to drought, continuing civil conflict and a harsh winter. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in May 2001 issued its report on 8 June.

The Mission found that rainfed crops (wheat and barley) had almost totally failed, except in a few pockets in different regions. The rainfed wheat production in 2001 was estimated to be about 40 percent less than even last year�s extremely low output. The 2001 irrigated cereal production was also, like that of 2000, severely affected by drought. However, given slightly better rainfall in some areas and transfer of land and irrigation water from poppy to wheat, the irrigated wheat production in 2001 is estimated about 14 percent more than in 2000, but still about 24 percent less than in 1999. The production of secondary crops (rice, maize, barley) was estimated to be about 24 percent more than last year�s extremely low output, but remains some 42 percent less than in 1999. The Mission thus estimated the 2001 total cereal production at 2.03 million tonnes - about 12 percent larger compared to 2000 but smaller by 37 percent compared to 1999. As a result, the cereal import requirement in the 2001/02 marketing year (July/June) was estimated at about 2.2 million tonnes, slightly less than last year�s record high level of 2.3 million tonnes, but about double the volume of 1.1 million tonnes in 1999.

Due to loss of revenue receipts of the Taliban Authorities as a result of abandonment of poppy cultivation this year and intensifying economic problems affecting both traders and consumers, Afghanistan�s commercial import capacity has further declined this year compared to last year. Nevertheless, a generous estimate of commercial cereal imports of some 760 000 tonnes, about 25 percent lower than the estimate for last year, is made, which still leaves a gap of 1.4 million tonnes. WFP estimates emergency food aid needs at 386 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered gap of over 1 million tonnes. A shortfall of this magnitude, coupled with seriously deteriorating purchasing power of the population, if unmet, could have disastrous consequences.

Millions of Afghans of all categories - sedentary, transhumant and nomad - have little or no access to food through markets due to purchasing power problems, and their access to food through self production has been severely undermined by drought, as well as by the deteriorating irrigation infrastructure and capacity of the farmers to access necessary inputs. Their purchasing power has been seriously eroded by the lack of employment opportunities within and outside agriculture; abandonment of poppy cultivation and decline in other cash crop production such as onions, potatoes, almonds and apricots; and dwindling numbers of livestock along with low livestock prices. A further factor pushing the rural poor into a vicious impoverishment process is rural indebtedness. Rural borrowing from those few who continue to be resourceful entails very high interest rates. The Mission came across examples of 50 percent interest payable in two months. The repayment of the principal and interest increasingly pauperizes the borrowers from year to year, eventually turning them into destitutes.

The overall situation is very grave, with starvation facing of millions of Afghans, most of whom have exhausted most of their coping mechanisms so that the only remaining option for them is to leave home and join the ranks of IDPs or refugees. This alarming situation will continue to deteriorate further as the 2001/02 marketing year progresses. Through its countrywide travel, the Mission found mounting evidence of the prevalence of a large number of pre-famine indicators such as substantially reduced food intakes, collapse of the purchasing power, decimating livestock, large-scale depletion of personal assets, soaring food grain prices, rapidly increasing numbers of destitutes, and ever swelling ranks of IDPs and refugees. The issue of �life saving� in Afghanistan is going to be even more crucial this year than it was last year.

ARMENIA* (24 May)

The outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest has improved with above-average rains in April and May, which helped replenish soil moisture and irrigation reserves. However, cumulative rains for the 2000/01 growing season remain below normal in several locations and regular rain in the coming month remains crucial if a good cereal harvest is to be achieved. Satellite imagery indicates that overall biomass development is markedly better than at the corresponding time last year. Early indications remain that the shortage of seed after the drought-reduced 2000 grain harvest (225 000 tonnes) has resulted in about 34 percent reduction in the area sown to winter wheat to 65 000 hectares. It is hoped to increase the areas sown to spring cereals to 108 000 hectares, while the total spring crop target is 197 000 hectares including 33 million hectares to potatoes (2000: 34 million hectares) and 21 000 ha to vegetables.

Despite the reduced winter wheat plantings, the 2001 grain (cereal and pulse) harvest could exceed the 220 000 tonnes projected earlier by FAO. However in view of the deficit in winter precipitation, the final outcome, and the food security situation next year, will depend crucially on regular rains throughout the growing season, not only for grains but also other basic crops. Indications are that the country could import up to 400 000 tonnes of cereals in 2000/01 and a similar amount is likely to be needed also in 2001/02.

Survey data indicate that up to 68 percent of the population is destitute, poor or close to the poverty line and that 55 percent of the population is either poor or destitute. Poor households are defined as having a per capita level of consumption below the poverty line (a minimum basket of food and consumer goods), and destitute households as having a per capita level of consumption below the food line (a minimum basket of food goods), with the two lines set at 11 735 drams (US$21.5) and 7 194 drams per month. Some 32 percent of the population live in poverty and almost 23 percent are destitute; the corresponding figures for households are 30 percent and 19 percent respectively. Moreover, some households are regarded as potentially poor, as their incomes are in the range 12 000-12 500 drams, only narrowly exceeding the poverty line. As a result, up to 68 percent of the population could need some form of poverty-related social protection. The survey also revealed that the real level of unemployment is 27.3 percent, well above the official estimate of 10.0-11.5 percent. The average monthly salary is 20 157 drams, or less than twice the poverty level, and some 17 percent of the workforce earn too little to secure an income above the food line. However, wages are not the main source of monetary income: they comprise only 24.6 percent of incomes, whereas sales of agricultural production account for 32.1 percent, revenues from self-employment for 10.6 percent, and state pensions and allowances for 9.3 percent. Some 19.3 percent of incomes are transfers from relatives, including 12.8 percent from remittances (this item alone is more significant than state pensions and allowances). Only 0.1 percent of incomes are related to property (i.e., leases, interest, dividends etc), highlighting the limited impact of privatisation on earning patterns. There is a high degree of income inequality. The income level among the wealthiest 20 percent of the population is 32.2 times that of the poorest 20 percent. The survey also confirmed that at least 620 000 Armenians (and possibly up to 1 million), out of an official population of 3.8 million, are currently abroad seeking alternative sources of income. Most of those abroad are of working age, and two-thirds are men.

Debilitating political, economic and social problems over the past decade have resulted in widespread un- and under-employment and food insecurity. The levels of chronic malnutrition among children of 3-59 months range between 14 and 32 percent with an average of 22 percent. These levels are considered moderate but show an increasing trend in the levels of malnutrition in the last two years. WFP has extended its emergency food assistance to drought victims until the end of December 2001 and plans to continue food assistance to nearly 300 000 subsistence farmers. This Emergency Operation (EMOP) will be fully integrated with the upcoming Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO), effective from July 2001, providing some 60 000 tonnes of food supplies to about 280 000 drought affected population. WFP, by mid 2003, would have distributed more than 68 000 tonnes of food commodities under the EMOP and PRRO.

AZERBAIJAN (24 May)

Low irrigation water reserves following last year�s drought and below normal precipitation in the river catchment areas this winter means that the outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest remains somewhat uncertain. However, rainfall in the spring has been good and satellite imagery indicate that biomass development is better than at the corresponding time last year in the river valleys but less in the coastal areas. In 2000, cereal production increased by a third as a result of the increased area sown to winter wheat and better yields, as this crop, harvested in June/July was less affected by the drought. Emergency works carried out this winter (deepening irrigation canals, etc.) could help to maintain production levels of profitable crops. In view of the further increase in the area sown to winter grains (to 650 000 hectares including 523 000 hectares of wheat), and the planned increase in spring grain plantings bringing the aggregate area sown to grains to 712 000 hectares, the 2001 cereal harvest could increase further to about 1.6 million tonnes compared to 1.5 million in 2000, assuming normal growing conditions until the completion of the harvest.

Despite the anticipated good crop following a well above average harvest in 2000, the cereal import requirement is expected to remain fairly stable at around 700 000 tonnes, in part as urban areas are predominantly supplied by imports. In addition, grain requirement for livestock is likely to rise (in line with cattle numbers) and because farmers face import competition in the foodgrain market. The bulk of the cereal import requirements will be covered commercially, though vulnerable groups, including the internally displaced, still need targeted food assistance. WFP continues to support 485 000 beneficiaries through a 3-year Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation which started in July 1999. Total food committed for the life of the project amounts to 47 880 tonnes of food aid.

BANGLADESH (18 May)

Severe tropical storms and tornadoes in late April through May resulted in a number of deaths and extensive damage to property and infrastructure. No damage to paddy crop has been reported.

Pre-monsoon showers in April increased soil moisture for the planting of the aus crop, the smallest of the country�s three rice crops. The boro crop is being harvested. Assuming average yields, the 2000/01 target for the boro crop was set at 11.2 million tonnes (milled rice), about 200 000 tonnes more than the year before, bringing the aggregate paddy output to 35.6 million tonnes, 100 000 tonnes higher than last year�s record crop. Government cereal stocks as of end-May amounted to 1 million tonnes, 9 percent lower than that at the corresponding level last year.

CAMBODIA (25 May)

Good weather conditions favoured harvesting of the secondary dry season paddy, which is now drawing to a close. The output of this crop is expected to exceed the 735 000 tonnes projected earlier this year due to increased plantings. Recent reports indicate that area planted to dry season paddy has increased this year to around 260 000 hectares, 4 percent higher than last year and some 50 000 hectares more than the average of the previous 10 years. Planting of the main wet season paddy is expected to start with the arrival of the monsoon rains in June. The main crop accounts for about 80 percent of the total rice crop with the rest coming from the second dry rice production. Assuming normal growing conditions, early indications point to a favourable outlook for the 2001 aggregate paddy crop.

Despite the overall satisfactory food supply situation, the impact of the serious flooding last September is still being felt in the affected communities where food assistance is still required.

CHINA (19 June)

Extreme weather is bringing drought to the northern and floods to the southern parts of China. In the North, Northeast, part of the Northwest and Southwest areas, north Xinjiang, Shandong Peninsula, Hubei Province and north of Jiangsu Province, precipitation has reportedly been reduced by 50 percent to 90 percent below the normal level since February this year. Drought conditions also affect Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing, Hebei, Shangxi, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Henan, Shangdong, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Sha'anxi, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia Province, Ningzia and Xinjiang. According to official sources, more than 20 million hectares of crops are affected. Harvest is expected to be reduced on 13 million hectares while some 800 000 hectares may not produce a harvest at all. In addition, 4 million hectares of land are left unplanted due to water shortage. It is also reported that 20 million people and 15 million drought animals are lacking water supply, which remains a critical problem in cities in the southern part of the North and Northeast and Shangdong Peninsula. Locusts are reported to have appeared in some areas threatening crops that survive to maturity. Summer crop yields reduction is confirmed in Sichuan, Chongqing, Henan and Jiangsu. The drought is reported to have affected large winter wheat areas. Several days of heavy rains in mid-June brought relief to some areas affected by the drought and farmers have reportedly started replanting damaged crops although meteorologists warned that dry conditions could persist.

In contrast to the parched northern provinces, floods in the south in early June severely hit Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Sichuan and other provinces. Official sources reported that in addition to directly affect 17 million people of the 27 million people located in the flood areas, flooding killed hundreds of others, caused the evacuation of about 140 000 persons and damaged property. It is estimated that some 1.7 million hectares of crops are affected and harvest could be reduced on 1.2 million hectares. The impact of floods on planting of the late and harvesting of the early rice crops which account together for about 43 percent of the aggregate rice output and are currently underway in the south is not yet known. More localized landslides and floods, intensified by seasonal rains in mid-June, have killed at least 100 people in other southern provinces.

CYPRUS (25 May)

Prospects for the 2001 wheat and barley crops, being harvested, is anticipated to be about average. The aggregate area sown was about 61 000 hectares, similar to the previous year. Production of cereals in 2000, mainly barley, is estimated at 101 000 tonnes, about 1 percent below the average for the previous five years.

Imports of wheat in 2000/01 (May/April) are forecast at 100 000 tonnes, while aggregate imports of barley and maize are forecast at some 540 000 tonnes, unchanged from last year.

EAST TIMOR (23 May)

Harvesting of maize is complete, while that of wet rice crop planted from November onwards has started. In southern areas, the secondary rice and maize crops are being planted for harvest in September/October. Crop prospects are relatively favourable due to adequate rainfall, increased seed availability and acreage. Livestock has reportedly increased significantly since 1999 when large numbers were killed during the violence. Despite improvements in the overall food supply situation, the unstable economic and political situation, poor marketing system and inadequate agricultural infrastructure continue to hinder the development of the agricultural sector.

GEORGIA* (31 May)

The outlook for the 2001 harvest has improved with good rains in the spring. Satellite imagery indicates satisfactory crop development, which however, is less dense than last year in the northern areas from South Ossetia through Shida Kartli, Mtianeti to Khaketi. This could be due to reduced or late winter wheat plantings. As precipitation during the winter months has again been well below average, the final outcome of the harvest will depend crucially on regular rainfall in the coming months. There are indications that the area sown to winter wheat may not have fallen as sharply as originally reported. However, plantings were delayed in many areas and many farmers used whatever seed they could mobilize. It is hoped to mobilize enough seed to increase the area sown in the spring to potatoes and maize, to offset any potential reduction in wheat output.

Weather permitting, the 2001 wheat harvest is projected to recover from last year�s drought reduced level of 89 000 tonnes to about 200 000 tonnes. Similarly, production of the major maize crop could rise by a third, resulting in aggregate grain production of some 58 percent more than last year�s 0.6 million tonnes. However, aggregate grain production would still be somewhat below the 5-year average.

The importance of informal trade makes it very difficult to monitor the actual level of cereal consumption. Given a national cereal consumption requirement (including food, feed seed, losses) of 1.1 million tonnes in 2001//2002, Georgia�s cereal import requirement is estimated at about 500 000 tonnes, mostly wheat. The volume of actual imports is difficult to assess but indications are that the country imported more than this in 2000/01. Against the estimated food aid requirement for the 2000/01 marketing year of 311 000 tonnes, only 810 000 tonnes have been registered to date.

WFP appealed last year for almost 66 000 tonnes to cover the basic needs of 696 000 most vulnerable drought-affected victims until the next main harvest, for a period of eight months (November-June). Response to this appeal has been slow and limited; the first commodity consignments only reached Georgia in January. The first round of distributions started late in February. Due to the lack of resources only half of the original ration was distributed during that round. A total of 516 750 beneficiaries (number revised following the recommendations of a Household Food Economy Survey undertaken in November 2000) received 6 802 tonnes of mixed food (6 199 tonnes wheat flour, 305 tonnes vegetable oil, 298 tonnes beans). Since the beginning of May a second round of distribution is underway. To date 327 329 beneficiaries received 4 139 tonnes of food. By mid-June pledges covered 65 percent of the total amount requested (42 500 tonnes against 66 000 tonnes in the appeal).

INDIA (16 May)

Harvesting of wheat crop is underway and planting of coarse grains and Kharif rice for harvest in September/November has also begun. According to India Meteorological Department, the southwest monsoon rainfall for 2001 is likely to be normal. The cumulative rainfall for the period March 1 to May 16, 2001 has reportedly been normal in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, and Orissa. However, rainfall over Gujarat region and Saurastra and Kutch remained highly deficient. Under normal conditions, the monsoon season starts in early June and continues through September.

The rainfall deficiency in the States of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh reduced area planted for wheat, pulses and oilseeds. Unfavourable weather conditions are reported to have affected harvest in Haryana and Punjab, the country�s wheat basket. As a result, the 2001/02 wheat output has been lowered to 68.5 million tonnes, down 7 million tonnes from last year�s record crop.

The high level of foodgrain stocks is straining storage facilities and some exports of wheat and rice have reportedly been authorized by the Government to relieve pressure on storage space.

INDONESIA* (28 May)

Seasonal rainfall benefited planting and development of the dry season crop already started in May. The secondary rice crop is being planted in Sulawasi and is about to start in Sumatra for harvest in July/October. The 2001 paddy output is expected to reach 50 million tonnes, from the 51.1 million tonnes produced last year.

The overall food situation in the country continues to stabilise, following the economic crisis in 1997/98, which was also compounded by a poor agricultural year due to El Ni�o related drought. As a result of good domestic production and ample stocks, Indonesia, the world leading rice importer, has announced that it would not import rice in 2001. However, concerns remain for the food and humanitarian situation in parts of the country affected by violent and prolonged civil disturbances.

IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (18 May)

The effect of three successive years of drought has seriously affected agriculture and livestock production. Last year�s drought was the worst since 1964 and affected an estimated 37 million people or over 50 percent of the population. Consequently the 2000 wheat production fell to around 8 million tonnes, some 700 000 tonnes lower than the already drought reduced crop in 1999 and almost 2 million tonnes below the average of last five year. As a result of the shortfall in crop output, imports are likely to be appreciably higher this year. In addition to cereals, the outlook is also bleak for livestock production, on which large segments of the population depend. It is expected that the drought will have a serious impact on vulnerable sectors of the population, particularly in rural areas, which have limited alternative sources of income.

An FAO mission that visited the country in late April confirmed a continuation of drought conditions in most areas. The winter-spring rainfall was significantly inadequate and 20 of the 28 provinces experienced precipitation shortfalls. Rainfall measurements in Bandar Turkman, Kurdhui, Guimishan and Banawa were 60-70 percent of that in the previous year, which was a severe drought year. The wheat and barley crop grown in December 2000-January 2001 were patchy and stunted in rainfed areas and in the fields where deepwell irrigation was insufficient. In some fields in Ghomishan and Banawar, three consecutive drought years in 1999-2001 have aggravated the salt intrusion problem with crops suffering both water inadequacy and salt-induced stress. On several farms, the Mission saw sheep grazing the abandoned crops.

Following a third consecutive year of drought, rivers including the Gorgon Rud (observed by the Mission) were drying up, reservoir levels were low and already low water tables were falling further in the worst-hit areas (the east, south and parts of the north). In Gulistan Province, about 45,000 ha of the 65,000 ha of wheat and barley planted last December/January had been affected by the drought.

The mission also indicated that cereal production in 2001 would be even lower than the ten-year low of 11.8 million tonnes (milled basis) last year. At the same time, the national herd of livestock will be further downsized owing to the declining area and quality of pastures as well as the scarcity of feedgrains, fodder and crop residues.

IRAQ* (25 May)

Prospects for the 2001 cereal harvest remain bleak due to the effects of two consecutive years of severe drought and inadequate availability of essential agricultural inputs. An FAO/WFP/WHO Food Supply and Nutrition Assessment Mission in May 2000 found that in the most affected centre/south areas, not only were the plantings reduced, but also some 75 percent of the cropped area under wheat and barley was heavily damaged and mostly used as grazing for livestock. Cereal yields were reduced to all time low levels. As a result, total cereal production in 2000, estimated at some 796 000 tonnes, was about 47 percent below 1999 and 64 percent below the average of the previous 5 years.

Cereal imports under the SCR 986 oil-for-food deal have led to significant improvements in the food supply situation. However, long delays in the flow of food imports continue to be reported. Also, despite significant increases in the food ration since SCR 986, child malnutrition rates in the centre/south of the country do not appear to have improved significantly and nutritional problems remain serious and widespread. The existing food rations do not provide a nutritionally adequate and varied diet; it is lacking in vegetables, fruit, and animal products and is therefore deficient in micro-nutrients.

ISRAEL (25 May)

The prospects for the 2001 wheat and barley crops being harvested are favourable, reflecting beneficial rains during the growing season. Domestic production of wheat in normal years covers less than one-fifth of total requirement, the rest being imported commercially.

Production of the wheat crop in 2000 was estimated at 80 000 tonnes, more than double the previous year�s drought affected crop, but below average. Imports of cereals in 2000/01 (July/June) are forecast at some 2.9 million tonnes.

JAPAN (26 May)

Planting of the 2001 rice crop started in May under normal weather conditions, for harvest in October. A decline in rice output is anticipated as planted area continues to drop due to an ongoing rice production adjustment program by the Government.

JORDAN (25 May)

Harvesting of the 2001 wheat and barley crops is underway. Prospects are poor due to a prolonged drought that delayed sowing and unusually high temperatures, about 10 degrees C above average. Recent forecasts indicate an aggregate wheat and barley output of about 45 000 tonnes, nearly similar to last year�s well below average crop and about 40 percent below the average for the previous five years. This is the third consecutive year of below average cereal production due to drought. The livestock sector was also severely affected, with sheep farmers the hardest hit.

KAZAKHSTAN (31 May)

Spring planting is well advanced and proceeding at a faster rate than last year. Good snowfall this winter has provided ample soil moisture reserves. Provided favourable weather conditions prevail in most parts, the country is likely to meet its targeted grain production of 11.7 million tonnes (2000: 11.6 million tonnes), including 9.2 million tonnes of wheat. Limited control action against locust infestations, which threatened crops in the preceding two years, have been taken.

Spring cereals this year are expected to be grown on 11.5 million hectares, producing some 11.2 million tonnes, similar to last year�s level. Provided the forecasts for 2001 materialise, cereal exports of about 4.7 million tonnes, mainly wheat (4.2 million tonnes), and some barley, are likely in 2001/02. This is close to exports in the current marketing year drawing to a close.

KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (25 May)

Following the coldest winter in decades, the country is facing a serious spring drought. Serious concerns are mounting over this year�s crop prospects and food supply outlook.

An Inter-agency field visit to the main producing North Hwanghae province confirmed considerable damage to rainfed double crops although irrigated crops were found to be in good condition. Lowland rain-fed potato plants were underdeveloped and about one-third of the fields showed signs of severe water stress. While transplanting of rice in irrigated paddy fields was normal, a lack of rainfall has seriously delayed transplanting of maize. It was also reported that water tables were lower, wells were drying and domestic water supplies were affected. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is scheduled to visit the country between June 23 and July 3, 2001 to review the food supply situation and assess the early crop prospects.

The November 2000 FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission estimated the cereal import requirement at 1.87 million tonnes, of which commercial imports were anticipated to cover 200 000 tonnes, whilst a further 810 000 tonnes of the import requirement has been pledged as food assistance through WFP and 500 000 tonnes more through bilateral concessional imports.

KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (13 June)

The country is reported to be facing its worst drought in almost 100 years. The central regions have been hit the hardest with the amount of rainfall during the last three months standing at as low as 10 percent of the annual average. The drought is reported to have affected rice transplanting which started in May. So far, only 30 percent of the average rainfall has been recorded in some rice growing areas. The Government estimates that about 4 500 hectares of paddy fields have been left unseeded and another 8 000 hectares have been affected by water shortage. Irrigation reservoirs are reportedly drying up. Vegetable prices have risen sharply in major cities. It is estimated that up to 10 percent of crops this year would be damaged by the drought. <

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC (31 May)

The 2001 grain production target is 1.7 million tonnes. The cropping situation is generally satisfactory and spring grain planting is virtually completed. Biomass development to date is more advanced than at the corresponding time last year except in western Osh region. As The SyrDarya river supplying irrigation to the central Asian region rises, in the mountains of Kyrgyzstan, this country may not be affected to the same extent as the downstream neighbours by inadequate precipitation this winter. However, increased demand for electricity in the winter months in response to a debt-induced cut-off of gas supplies, has resulted in water accumulation this winter being diverted to hydro-electrical production and reduced availability for irrigation for the entire region in the summer. The spring grain area is targeted to reach 398 000 hectares and include 67 000 hectares of maize grain. The 2000 grain harvest is officially estimated at 1.57 million tonnes including 1.04 million tonnes of wheat. This is somewhat less than the previous year�s harvest (1.63 million tonnes) and below target, reflecting crop losses due to dry weather and early snows.

The overall food supply situation remains satisfactory and indeed the country exports some cereals to neighbouring Tajikistan and Afghanistan. However, a significant proportion of the population is poor, and access to adequate food is primarily a problem of purchasing power. The country also imports wheat in part due to the demand for quality wheat, to supplement the State Security Reserve (via food aid deliveries), and due to poor internal communications.

LAOS* (25 May)

Pre-monsoon rain benefited field preparations for the planting of the wet season rice season, which is expected to start in June for harvest in September/October. Assuming normal weather conditions forecast for paddy production in 2001 is put at 2.3 million tonnes, similar to the output level achieved last year. Despite some improvements in food production in recent years, targeted food assistance is still required for people affected by last year�s floods.

In September 2000 an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission found that in keeping with the Government's strong emphasis on agricultural development in recent years, there has been appreciable growth in rice output due to increased adoption of high yielding varieties and an increase in the area under irrigated dry season farming. In addition, in spite of the floods during the last wet season, rainfall overall was satisfactory, resulting in generally favourable production. Based on official data for 2000 wet season production and a tentative forecast for the 2001 dry season, the Mission projected milled rice production for the current marketing year at some 1.28 million tonnes. With bilateral programme food aid and pledged emergency food assistance, total rice availability will amount to approximately 1.30 million tonnes, which would entirely cover estimated utilisation needs.

LEBANON (25 May)

The output of 2001 wheat crop, now being harvested, is expected to be about 60 000 tonnes, sharply above last year�s level. Imports of wheat in 2000/01 (July/June) are forecast at some 510 000 tonnes.

MALAYSIA (27 May)

Planting of the second rice season for harvest in July is complete. During April, continuous thunderstorms with very heavy rain occurred frequently over the Peninsula, causing flash floods in many areas.

The country produces normally about 2 million tonnes of rice annually, of which 60 percent is accounted for by the main rice crop. The outlook for 2001 crops is favourable with a paddy output estimated at 2.3 million tonnes. Normally a third of domestic consumption requirements of rice are imported into the country, whilst wheat and maize are almost entirely imported. To enhance production, the Government has announced various strategies to enable sustainable food production and reduce dependency on imports. These include improving efficiency and productivity, introducing food production zones, strengthening marketing systems and food processing industries, developing infrastructure and human resources. The priority areas will be rice, fruit, vegetables, fisheries and poultry farming.

MONGOLIA* (20 May)

Planting of the main wheat crop is underway in main producing areas for harvest in September. The combined effect of the second consecutive winter disaster, which followed two successive summer droughts and underlying problems in the agricultural sector, could result in further reduced cereal production in 2001 and increased dependency on international food assistance. A blizzard in April had added to the suffering of many herders by causing more deaths to livestock. Outbreaks of foot and mouth disease and rabies have resulted in additional losses of animals. According to official estimates, the number of dead livestock stood at just over 2 million as of 15th April 2001 - three times higher than last winter. As several provinces have not yet submitted their updated figures for losses it is expected the number of animal deaths could be much higher. The scale of livestock deaths coupled with those of last year mean that many herders no longer have the ability to barter their animals to provide supplementary food and other essential non-food items for their families.

An UN/Government appeal for international assistance of US$7 million in cash and US$4.7 million in cash was launched last January to assist affected people in 73 affected counties.

MYANMAR (15 May)

Planting of the main wet season rice is well underway in most parts of the country. The main rice crop accounts for about 95 percent of the aggregate output. Assuming normal growing conditions, the 2001 rice crop is expected to increase over last year�s output of 20 million tonnes.

NEPAL (15 May)

Maize crop is scheduled for harvest in July onward, while rice planting is underway. Rice output is anticipated to increase in 2001 to around 4.1 million tonnes, about 100 000 tonnes above last year, as a result of increased yields. The Government is aiming at developing an irrigation system to expand irrigated crop production, increase fertiliser supply through greater private sector participation and improving agricultural infrastructure.

PAKISTAN (18 June)

A third consecutive drought has affected crops in many parts of the country. During the last three years, Balochistan and parts of Sindh Provinces have received below average rainfall, which has progressively turned into a drought. These persistent drought conditions are now affecting several other parts of Pakistan. The rainfed wheat crop has been seriously reduced while significant yield losses have been sustained in the irrigated crops. The output of wheat in 2001 is forecast at 17-18 million tonnes, down from last year�s bumper harvest of 22 million tonnes. the livestock has also been adversely affected, reflecting shortage of pasture and feed. Most rivers are substantially below normal which will adversely affect prospects of subsequent rice and sugarcane crops.

Given a reduced harvest, the food supply situation is expected to tighten in the marketing year 2001/02 (May/April). However, the availability of some 3 million tonnes of wheat stocks from last year�s record harvest are sufficient to cover the shortfall. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission has just returned from the country and its report will be issued shortly.

PHILIPPINES (25 May)

With the arrival of rains and the southwesterly winds in may parts of western Luzonin late May, the monsoon season was reported to have started on schedule.

In most parts of the country, harvesting of second lowland rice and maize crops is underway with expected normal yields. Planting of the third rice crop has started. Assuming a normal monsoon season, the 2001 aggregate rice crop is expected to reach 12.6 million tonnes, some 100 000 tonnes above last year. Food demand and consumption this year are projected to decline due to economic slowdown and on-going political events. Official sources indicated that rice imports might not be necessary this year, as rice stocks remain large.

SAUDI ARABIA (25 May)

Production of wheat in 2000/01 is forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, slightly higher than last year. Imports of cereals in 2000/01 (July/June) is currently forecast 6.9 million tonnes. Saudi Arabia is the world�s largest importer of barley, accounting for nearly one-third of the world barley trade.

SRI LANKA (18 June)

The Yala rice crop, which accounts for one-third of the aggregate output started in May with the arrival of the Southwest monsoon rains. Since planting, normal to above-normal rainfall has been providing good growing conditions to the crop in the North Central, Eastern, Uva and Sabaragamuwa Provinces, which account for 62 percent of the Yala aggregate output. The remaining portion of the Yala crop is grown in the Northwestern, Central, Western and Southern provinces where rains have been below normal since the beginning of the season. Over the last five years, the cost of production of rice has increased significantly due to increased cost of labour, fuel and fertilizer. In addition, farm prices, which continue to remain unattractive in recent years, could affect future planting intentions and rice production.

SYRIA (25 May)

Three consecutive years of drought have severely affected crop and livestock production. Rainfall this year is reported to have been better than last year but pockets still remain where the rains were not enough to offset the soil moisture deficit.

In 1999 and 2000 severe droughts decimated cereal crops and led to a significant increase in sheep mortality rates that seriously affected incomes of small herders. Latest reports put the 2000 wheat production at 2.7 million tonnes, about 4 percent above the previous year�s reduced crop but 25 percent below average. Barley production, which is almost entirely rainfed, is estimated at 130 000 tonnes, about 88 percent below the previous five-year average.

TAJIKISTAN* (1 June)

The outlook for the 2001 cereal harvest is not good. The latest official data available indicate that the area sown to wheat, contrary to earlier expectations, has not declined due to shortages of seed after last year�s drought-reduced crop, but remained stable at 345 000 hectares. However, after last years' drought some plantings were late. Salination problems, due to the poor state of the irrigation/water management system and inadequate drainage, persist. Fertilizer use also remains low in part reflecting high world oil prices. In addition, very partial data indicate that while precipitation in the period October�December 2000 was more than in the corresponding period the preceding year, its level between January and April has been markedly less. The government has requested help to meet food supply needs in view of fears of a drought for the second year in succession.

Satellite imagery up to mid-May indicate that biomass development is less than in 2000 in southern Khatlon and northern Leninabad regions, but still better further upstream along the major rivers. Crop development is markedly less than in 1999, when aggregate grain production was officially estimated at 482 000 tonnes. Hot weather with temperatures above normal has persisted since late April, increasing moisture stress and irrigation needs. If the hot dry conditions persist, food and cotton crop output will again be reduced. At this early stage, given yields somewhat lower than last year�s, the 2001 grain harvest could fall below 350 000 tonnes. However, the final outcome will depend crucially on the intensity and duration of the drought.

Two successive unfavourable years for basic food production could have severe consequences for the population. Many households are already in dire condition. The Government has appealed for international assistance. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is currently assessing the impact of the drought on crops and evaluating the food supply situation including the food assistance needs of the affected population.

WFP has launched an appeal for 126 000 tonnes of food aid worth $62 million to implement an emergency operation to assist over one million people who are in serious need of food assistance. More than 15 600 tonnes of food commodities were distributed to 775 000 drought-affected population in the first quarter of 2001. WFP plans to extend food distribution programmes until December 2001. Without adequate assistance, about 1.2 million people will face a very difficult situation with virtually no employment opportunities or other sources of income to purchase food from the market.

THAILAND (28 May)

Low pressure swept across the northern part in early May causing heavy rains in the area and flash floods in Kalasin and Nakhon Ratchasima provinces. The worst cyclonic rain in its history hit Phrae Province in the northern region in early May. One of the major causes of the flooding was the mismanagement of the Province's forest resources. Survey results indicated that in addition to the loss of lives, much of the economic and agricultural infrastructure in the thirty-nine affected villages has been destroyed. Well over 7 000 rai (1 120 hectares) of various crops have been destroyed along with massive losses to livestock and fisheries. Phrea Province is expecting further heavy rainfall in the coming weeks.

Scattered thunderstorms and widespread heavy rainfalls across the country since late April signaled the progression of the monsoon season over the Andaman Sea to the Gulf of Thailand. Pre-monsoon rains which slowed harvest of the secondary rice crop, increased soil moisture for the planting of the main rice and maize crops. The aggregate rice output in 2001 is provisionally forecast at 24 million tonnes, similar to last year�s production. The 2001 rice exports are expected to remain at the same level as last year.

TURKEY (15 June)

Prospects the 2001 winter crops, to be harvested from June, are unfavourable due to drought and some flood damage in early May. As a result, the 2001 wheat production is projected to fall to 17 million tonnes, down from earlier Government forecast of 20 million tonnes. Similarly, the barley crop is expected to drop to 6.5 million tonnes compared to last year�s 8 million tonnes.

The government has significantly reduced its grain support prices in June 2000 with the objective of reducing inflationary pressures and lowering government outlays. For instance, support prices for Anatolian Hard Red Wheat, which is most commonly produced, has been reduced by about 14 percent to 166 US$/tonne compared to 1999.

Turkey's state grain board (TMO) purchase from farmers in 2001 is forecast at about 3.5 million tonnes of cereals.

TURKMENISTAN (6 June)

Irrigation water shortages again this year, could result in the (ambitious) official grain and cotton production targets not being achieved. The winter wheat production target is 2 million tonnes and in addition quantities of rice and maize are also grown in the spring. Winter cereals are officially reported to be planted on some 775 000 hectares, which would be some 10 percent more than last year in a country largely consisting of desert, where the bulk of crops need irrigation. The drive to increase rice production, which failed last year, is continuing and this year some 40 000 hectares are planned to be sown by specialised producers.

The official estimates of the areas sown could be unrealistic. The fact that wheat, rice and cotton are crops which remain under state marketing orders, and for which inputs can be mobilised, could also mean that the areas sown are being overestimated and inputs diverted to other food crops. Moreover, most private sources also find crop yield estimates inflated. On the one hand, land privatisation and private responsibility for production under leasehold has provided incentives to maximise yields. On the other hand, unofficial sources indicate that actual wheat yields are between 1.5-2.0 tonnes per hectare rather than the 2.5�2.6 tonnes per hectare officially reported since 1999. Salinisation due to excessive irrigation of fragile desert soils and poor drainage is a growing problem.

In view of these considerations, and the sharp increase in cereal availability given the official forecasts, FAO has lowered its production series since 1999. Output of wheat in 2000 is now estimated at 1.4 million tonnes and total grain production at 1.5 million tonnes. Early reports indicate that the reservoir levels are lower than last year and water has only been available for one irrigation in April. It is reported that inadequate water was available to irrigate crops in May and that this, in addition to compromising the yield of spring grain and cotton crops, could also affect the yield of winter wheat. The worst affected areas are said to be Dashagouz province (bordering Karakalpakstan and nearer the tail end of the Amu Darya River) and Mary province (bordering Iran and Afghanistan). Mary province is dependent on the Murghab river for irrigation, which has been reportedly dry for most part of the spring crop growing season. Given the threat of water shortages, the outlook for the 2001 foodcrop harvests is to decrease despite reports of a larger area sown.

Imports of wheat have fallen sharply in recent years and are estimated to remain stable at about 40 000 tonnes in 2001/02 provided the cereal production forecasts materialise. However, data on trade is difficult to obtain and there are reports of informal flows of wheat flour. The government strategy emphasises increased domestic wheat and rice production, to minimise import needs. At the same time the government also wishes to quintuple cotton seed production by the year 2010.

Imports of wheat have fallen sharply in recent years and are estimated to remain stable at about 40 000 tonnes in 2001/02 provided the cereal production forecasts materialise. However, data on trade is difficult to obtain and there are reports of informal flows of wheat flour. The government strategy emphasises increased domestic wheat and rice production, to minimise import needs. At the same time the government also wishes to quintuple cotton seed production by the year 2010.

UZBEKISTAN (4 June)

The outlook for the 2001 cereal harvests is again threatened by a shortage of irrigation water. As at end April, river flows at most stations on both the Syr Darya and Amu Darya were less than at the corresponding time last year. Unless glacier melt increases, in response to very hot temperatures since late April, there remains the risk that irrigation water supplies could be inadequate to meet crop needs in the region. Irrigation levels are low for a number of reasons, precipitation in the catchment area that was not adequate to offset last year�s low levels, the diversion of water resources to generate hydro-electricity upstream in the winter months and the increasingly poor state of the irrigation system. If this situation persists, the outlook is for another reduced spring crop harvest.

Unseasonably high temperatures since late April have allowed early spring planting but have also increased irrigation needs. Planting of cotton, the major cash crop has been virtually completed. Planting of spring grains (mainly rice and maize) and other food crops may be affected by the shortage of irrigation water. In Karakalpakstan, (KK) the area worst affected by the water shortage last year, the total area sown to spring crops has roughly fallen by half to about 200 000 hectares. Virtually no land has been planted to rice (the target was 80 000 hectares) and as a result, the aggregate area sown to rice could fall to about 75 000 hectares from a low of 125 000 hectares last year. The area sown to cotton in KK is also reduced by up to a third.

The latest official estimates reconfirm that the area sown to winter wheat has decreased by about 100 000 hectares, to an estimated 1.2 million hectares as some rainfed land has been taken out of production. As a result of lower wheat and rice plantings, the aggregate area sown to grains for harvest in 2001 is estimated at only 1.4 million hectares, some 200 000 hectares less than last year. Given drought also in neighbouring countries, the 2001 grain harvest could be less than last year�s poor 3.9 million tonnes.

An FAO/WFP joint mission in October 2000 in response to the water shortages in that year found that some 45 000 people in KK would experience food supply problems unless assisted. This number could be higher if the water shortage situation repeats itself this year.

VIET NAM (29 May)

The monsoon season has arrived in May in the Mekong Delta and some areas in the Central Highlands with widespread heavy rains. Harvest of the winter-spring rice crop, the largest rice crop in the northern and southern parts of the country. A larger winter-spring crop is forecast this year in the Red River and Mekong River Deltas, as a result of extensive use of high yielding hybrid rice varieties.

Planting of the summer-fall rice is progressing in the south for harvest in October. In view of weaker rice prices, cropped area has declined, and in some areas farmers have switched from summer-fall rice cultivation to other more profitable crops. To prevent prices from falling, the Government purchased about 1 million tonnes of rice from local farmers in April. Quotas imposed on exports and fertilizer imports have been recently abolished to stimulate exports and production. About 2 million tonnes, or 50 percent of this year�s export target, have been shipped to buyers in Africa, Middle East and Asia.

YEMEN (25 May)

Rainfall and temperatures for the main, sorghum and millet crops to be harvested towards the end of this year, are reported to be normal. Total cereal output in 2000 is estimated at 672 000 tonnes, similar to the average for the previous five years.

The Desert Locust situation remains calm but with recent winter rains along the Red Sea coastal plains, conditions are likely to be favourable for locust breeding.