FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages No.3, June 2001

SOUTHERN AFRICA

ANGOLA* (8 June)

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Angola from 5 - 27 May 2001 to estimate crop production from the 2000/01 season, as well as the cereal import requirements and food aid in the 2001/02 marketing year (April/March). The Mission made field visits to 8 out of the 18 provinces. Plans had been made to visit 10 provinces, but the security situation was very fluid and the plans had to be changed at the last minute.

The Mission found that the security situation has improved, as the Government has military control over all provincial and most municipal centres, with an expansion of the secure areas around these centres. However, UNITA is still mounting guerrilla attacks in many areas, thereby restricting operations by the Government, aid agencies and NGOs to the areas immediately surrounding the administrative centres. Most food aid and essential commodities have still to be transported by air from Luanda. Insecurity and poor road conditions continue to disrupt marketing activities. Although very few IDPs have been able to return to their original homes, there has been good progress in allocating land to IDPs within the secure areas. Some 218 000 IDPs and returnees have been recorded as being active in farming during the 2000/01 season. New IDPs are still arriving and the current estimate of the total number (old and new) is reported to be 2.7 million compared to 2.6 million last year. About 1.34 million are still in need of food aid.

The area planted to coarse grains in the 2000/01 season is estimated at 995 000 hectares, an increase of 13 percent from 1999/00. Output is estimated at 577 000 tonnes, against 500 000 tonnes last year. The increase in production is largely attributed to higher sowings, as a result of improved security conditions at planting time; allocation of land to IDPs; improved agricultural input distribution and natural increase of population. In spite of a severe mid-season dry spell in northern areas, weather conditions were generally favourable in the main cereal growing areas of the centre and south. Maize harvest is estimated at 429 000 tonnes, 9 percent above last year�s level, with larger plantings partially offset by crop losses in the northern provinces. Millet and sorghum production is estimated, at 148 000 tonnes, up by nearly 30 percent on last year. This reflects a sharp increase in the area planted and the effect of good rains in the south. The bean crop is estimated at 71 000 tonnes, down 10 percent from last year, also as a result of dry spells in the north. Cassava estimate for 2000/01 is 5.3 million tonnes compared to 4.4 million tonnes in the previous year.

Reflecting the improved production, the food deficit in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March) has decreased to 581 000 tonnes of cereals. This includes 48 000 tonnes of maize, 107 tonnes of rice and 250 000 tonnes of wheat. Commercial imports are forecast at 405 000 tonnes of cereals, leaving 176 000 tonnes to be covered by food aid. By the end of May food aid pledges amounted to 33 000 tonnes.

BOTSWANA (5 June)

Preliminary estimates of the recently harvested 2001 coarse grains indicate an output of 9 000 tonnes, 57 percent down on last year. Maize production, estimated at only 2 000 tonnes, is 78 percent lower than in 2000. Sorghum and millet are forecast to decline by 42 percent to 7 000 tonnes. The sharp decline in production reflects a prolonged dry spell from late December to early February, coupled with high temperatures. Total crop failure has been reported in some areas.

As a result of the poor harvest and low carry-over stocks, the cereal import requirement for the 2001/02 marketing year (April/March) has increased to 258 000 tonnes, including 66 000 tonnes of wheat. While these requirements are expected to be covered on commercial basis, the food situation is anticipated to be very tight for poor households that gathered a reduced harvest.

LESOTHO (8 June)

An FAO/ WFP Crop and Supply Assessment Mission visited the country from 5 to 16 May 2001, to review prospects for the 2000/01 crops and the overall food supply situation, and to estimate the cereal import requirements, including food aid, for the 2001/02 marketing year.

The Mission estimated that the total cropped area had not changed from normal years. However at the beginning of January 2001 a cold front passed over Lesotho causing frost that severely affected crops at their critical development stages. It was immediately followed by a prolonged dry spell, a heat wave and a hailstorm in parts, all of which further damaged crops and resulted in poor crop yields. Frost damage was particularly severe in the mountain districts where many households suffered total crop loss. As a result of these adverse effects, the Mission forecast the 2000/01 cereal production at 80 000 tonnes, which is about 55 percent below last year and 60 percent below the average of the last five years. Maize production is estimated at 58 000 tonnes, wheat at 5 000 tonnes and sorghum at 11 000 tonnes. Other crops such as beans and peas were also observed on most farmers� fields, and contribute to the diet of families and cash incomes when grown in larger quantities.

For the 2001/02 marketing year (April-March), domestic cereal supply, estimated at 112 000 tonnes, falls far short of national consumption requirements. The cereal import requirement was estimated at 329 000 tonnes, which is expected to be covered by commercial imports. Even in normal years, Lesotho�s cereal production covers about 50 percent of its domestic consumption requirements. The one-to-one convertibility of the local currency with the South African Rand means that availability of foreign exchange is not a major constraint to commercial imports from South Africa.

The Mission estimated that there was no need for largescale food assistance. At the household level, while most families will face larger than usual food deficits in marketing year 2001/02 (nearly all rural households in Lesotho buy food between harvests), they have adequate coping means to get them through to the next harvest, provided food prices remain stable. The means include sale of livestock (over 80 percent of rural households own cattle, goats and sheep) remittances from family members working in South Africa and towns in Lesotho, as well as local wage labour and informal sector income earning activities. However, there is a relatively small proportion of rural households (probably 1015 percent) in the most affected districts (Mokhotlong, ThabaTseka, Mohale�s Hoek and Quthing) who have lost their crops but have neither livestock nor off-farm income with which to access food on the market. This is the group most at risk. The group will also not have seed for planting in the next cropping season starting in September 2001.

The Mission recommended that a rapid survey be undertaken in the four worst affected districts to identify, quantify and precisely target these households for food and seed assistance. It recommended that the survey be jointly undertaken by Government of Lesotho/WFP/FAO�s Special Relief Operation Service (TCOR).

MADAGASCAR (5 June)

Below-average rains in northern and central parts during February and first dekad of March, which followed abundant rains in previous months, affected growing conditions for the 2001 paddy crop. The overall prospects for the paddy harvest, starting from April, are uncertain; yield reductions are anticipated in parts. By contrast, in the southern maize growing areas abundant precipitation since the second dekad of February improved prospects for the maize crop which had been affected by dry weather. However, the rains may have arrived too late to prevent yield reductions and the harvest could be reduced for the second consecutive year. Last year, the southern areas were affected by a severe drought that caused a one-quarter decline in the maize output.

MALAWI (5 June)

Latest preliminary estimate of the recently harvested 2001 maize crop has been revised downwards to 2.047 million tonnes, a decline of 18 percent from the bumper crop of last year but still at the average level of the past five years. A midseason dry spell in southern and central parts and subsequent excessive rains in 13 of the country�s 27 districts adversely affected cereal production. Severe floods in these districts affected 346 000 people and resulted in the loss of 50 000 hectares of foodcrops. WFP has targeted 275 000 people for emergency food assistance.

Despite the decline in production, the maize harvest is anticipated to be sufficient to satisfy domestic requirements in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March).

MOZAMBIQUE (8 June)

Harvesting of the 2001 cereal crops is complete. An estimate of production is still not available. However, preliminary indications point to a maize output around or slightly above last year�s good crop of 1 million tonnes. This reflects an increase of 10 percent in the area planted and generally favourable rains in the main growing areas, despite localized floods.

Torrential rains in January and February, as well as high levels of the Zambezi River, resulted in severe floods in central provinces of Zambesia, Sofala, Manica and Tete. About 77 000 hectares of foodcrops were lost to the floods. Outside the flooded areas, the excessive rains are likely to have resulted in yield reductions. In main growing northern provinces, abundant and well distributed rains favoured cereal crop development and a good output is expected. By contrast, in southern provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane, a prolonged mid-season dry spell in January severely reduced yields of maize and bean crops. In these provinces, which were the worst affected by floods last year, food production is anticipated to be poor for the second consecutive year.

Overall, a satisfactory 2001 cereal production is expected. Cassava production is also anticipated to be good. Reflecting the arrival of the new harvest onto the markets, maize prices have declined in the main markets, and are below their level of a year ago.

NAMIBIA (5 June)

A delay in the start of the rainy season, coupled with severe dry weather in January and first dekad of February in the major cereal growing areas of the north, resulted in planting reductions and poor yields. Maize production in 2001 is tentatively estimated at 45 percent below the satisfactory harvest of last year at 27 000 tonnes. Production is also 10 percent lower than the average of the past five years. Estimates of the sorghum/millet harvest, accounting for twothirds of the total cereal production, are not yet available, but the output is expected to decline from the below-normal level of last year.

As a result of the sharply reduced maize harvest, imports of coarse grains in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March) are projected at 80 000 tonnes, compared to 60 000 tonnes in the previous year. In addition, the country needs to import 45 000 tonnes of wheat, the crop for which it has a structural deficit. Although all import requirements are expected to be covered on commercial basis, the food supply situation is anticipated to be very tight for small farmers who experienced crop failure this season.

SOUTH AFRICA (8 June)

Harvesting of the 2001 coarse grains, mainly maize, is underway. Latest production forecasts indicate a maize output of 7.3 million tonnes. At this level, production is one-third below the bumper crop of last year and well below the average of the past five years. The reduced harvest reflects a decrease of 17 percent in the area sown, due to low domestic prices at planting time, as well as unfavourable weather during the season. Poor rains and high temperatures in January and early February, particularly in the main western growing areas, stressed the developing maize crop. Subsequent abundant rains arrived too late to prevent sharp yield reductions.

Despite the sharp decline in production, the country still has an exportable surplus of about 500 000 tonnes of maize, as a result of large carry-over stocks estimated at 2.6 million tonnes.

SWAZILAND (8 June)

An FAO/WFP Crop and Supply Assessment Mission visited Swaziland from 16 to 28 May 2001, to review harvest prospects and the overall food supply situation, and to estimate cereal import requirements, including food aid, if any, for the 2001/02 marketing year.

The Mission forecast the 2000/01 maize production at 73 000 tonnes, which is about 66 percent of the last five years average. Swaziland does not produce other cereal crops, except for a few hundred tonnes of sorghum. Other crops like sweet potato, beans and cowpeas are produced but in small and declining quantities. Field observations by the Mission indicated that production of these crops has also been lower than average.

The reduction in maize production was particularly serious in the Middle and Lowerveld where late planted crops were affected at the critical flowering /tasseling stage. The early planted crops escaped the drought and generally produced good yields. For the 2001/02 marketing year (April-March), domestic cereal supply, estimated at 85 000 tonnes, falls far short of national consumption requirements. With a mid-marketing year population estimate of 1 034 000, cereal import requirement was estimated at 123 000 tonnes. The Mission estimated that the requirement will be fully covered by commercial imports. Even in normal years, Swaziland�s cereal production covers only 60 percent of its domestic consumption requirements. The one-to-one convertibility of the local currency with the South African Rand means that availability of foreign exchange is not a major constraint to commercial imports from South Africa.

Nonetheless, because of reduced production, food shortages may be experienced by the most affected households and other vulnerable population groups, which will need food assistance. A needs assessment is currently being conducted jointly by the Disaster Management Task Force and NGOs in drought affected areas. This exercise will be important in targeting more precisely the vulnerable groups that should be assisted.

ZAMBIA (5 June)

Harvesting of the 2001 coarse grains, mainly maize, is well advanced. Prospects deteriorated with excessive rains in February and March over most parts of the country, which negatively affected yields and resulted in localized floods, particularly along the Zambezi and Luangwa Rivers. By contrast, in the Southern and Western Provinces, prolonged dry weather in January stressed developing maize crop and reduced yields.

Overall, this year�s maize production is forecast at 1.1 million tonnes, 16 percent below the good crop of 2000 but still around the average of the past five years. After being self-sufficient in maize in 2000/01 (April/March) the country may face an import requirement of about 220 000 tonnes of maize in marketing year 2001/02.

ZIMBABWE* (1 June)

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Zimbabwe from 25 April to 11 May 2001 to estimate the production of the main season cereal and pulse crops, forecast the 2001/02 winter season production and assess food import requirements.

The Mission found that similar to the pattern of the previous year, the 2000/01 rainy season was generally favourable for the northern provinces of the country which normally produce nearly 70 percent of the national cereal harvest. But, rains were late and below normal in the southern and eastern areas of the country. There was a dry spell during January in most parts of the country followed by widespread incessant rains in February and March, which resulted in localised flooding.

The area under grain crops in the 2000/01 main season decreased by 15 percent compared to the previous year. The area planted to maize in the large scale commercial farming sector was reduced by more than half primarily due to land acquisition activities. The smallholder sector, including the resettled areas did not make up for this reduction in maize plantings. Some of the decrease in total maize area was compensated by an increase in the area under soybeans, groundnuts, sunflower and paprika.

The Mission estimated a national cereal harvest of 1.57 million tonnes in the 2000/01 main cropping season, compared to 2.15 million tonnes in 1999/00, a reduction of 27 percent. Maize production, which accounts for over 90 percent of the total grain production, was estimated at 1.47 million tonnes.

Livestock condition was generally good in the large-scale commercial sector while in the smallholder sector it ranged from fair to good. However, animal deaths due to tick borne diseases were reported in some communal areas. Pastures and water availability conditions were generally good in most provinces.

Based on the forecast production, the import requirement is estimated at 579 000 tonnes. Given the substantial decline in gold production and the tobacco harvest, and much of the expected foreign currency earnings being pre-committed for fuel, other energy imports and the international debt servicing, Government�s ability to import maize is extremely limited. Even if the wheat and rice deficit of 132 000 tonnes were to be met by commercial imports by private traders primarily by raising foreign currency in the parallel market, there remains a net deficit of about 447 000 tonnes of maize to be covered by imports or by drawing down on stocks. Given the current economic conditions and food insecurity in several parts of the country, a major draw down of stocks may not be advisable. The country needs to hold adequate cereal stocks to maintain stable and adequate supply necessary to prevent any price escalations and to keep prices at affordable levels for both rural and urban populations.

Free food aid distribution is not appropriate. Bilateral programme food aid may be considered as an option to help ensure an adequate grain supply at affordable prices in the deficit areas, both rural and urban.