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Table 1. Species selected as being or likely to be fed commercial feeds containing products from marine resources (fishmeal[11] and fish oil[12])
ISSCAAP Code[13] |
Species included, with systematic codes[14] |
Name used in this study |
Species excluded |
1 |
FRESHWATER FISH |
||
11 |
Common carp |
COMMON CARP |
All other cyprinids |
12 |
All tilapias and other cichlids |
TILAPIA |
None |
13 |
All types of catfish |
CATFISH |
All others in group 13 |
13 |
Gobies, largemouth black bass, mandarin fish, pikes, perches and snakeheads |
SELECTED FRESHWATER FISH |
All others in group 13 |
2 |
DIADROMOUS FISH |
||
22 |
River eels |
EELS |
None |
21 and 23 |
All trouts (except sea trout), sturgeons and paddlefishes |
TROUTS AND STURGEONS |
All others in group 23 |
23 |
All salmon, sea trout and chars |
SALMON |
All others in group 23 |
25 |
Milkfish |
MILKFISH |
All others in group 25 |
25 |
Asian seabass (= giant seaperch = barramundi) and hybrid striped bass |
OTHER DIADROMOUS |
All others in group 25 |
3 |
MARINE FISH |
||
31, 32, 36 and 39 |
Halibuts, soles, turbots and other flatfish, cod, tunas and miscellaneous marine fishes |
SELECTED MARINE FISH |
None |
33 |
Groupers, seabasses, seabreams, snappers and drums. |
REDFISH |
None |
34 |
Cobia, jacks and horse mackerels and amberjacks (yellowtails) |
JACKS AND YELLOWTAILS |
All others in group 34 |
4 |
CRUSTACEANS |
||
41 |
Giant river prawn[15] and freshwater prawns, shrimps nei (Palaemonidae) |
FRESHWATER PRAWNS |
All others in group 41[16] |
41, 42 and 43 |
All freshwater and marine crabs, and lobsters |
CRABS AND LOBSTERS |
All others in group 41 |
45 |
All marine shrimp |
MARINE SHRIMP |
None |
Table 2. Future aquaculture expansion rates used in this study[17]
SPECIES GROUP |
GLOBAL |
WORLD WITHOUT CHINA |
||
APR APPLIED (%) |
SOURCE AND COMMENTS |
APR APPLIED (%) |
SOURCE AND COMMENTS |
|
COMMON CARP |
7.2 |
1997-1999 |
Nil |
Lowest rate minus |
TILAPIA |
9.1 |
1997-1999 |
7.6 |
1990-1999 |
CATFISH |
1.0 |
1997-1999 |
1.0 |
China production nil |
SELECTED FRESHWATER FISH |
10.0 |
Artificially capped rate (lowest actual rate was ~22%) |
5.0 |
Artificially capped rate (lowest actual rate was ~12%) |
EELS |
Nil |
Lowest rate (1997-1999) was minus |
Nil |
Rates for all periods minus |
TROUTS AND STURGEONS |
0.4 |
1997-1999 |
0.4 |
China production nil |
SALMON |
10.4 |
1997-1999 |
10.4 |
China production nil |
MILKFISH |
Nil |
Lowest rate (1990-1999) was minus |
Nil |
China production nil |
OTHER DIADROMOUS |
2.1 |
1995-1999 |
2.1 |
China production nil |
SELECTED MARINE FISH |
10.0 |
Artificially capped rate (lowest actual rate was ~12%) |
5.0 |
Artificial rate (lowest, in 1997-1999, minus but all others were >18%) |
REDFISH |
12.0 |
Artificially capped rate (lowest actual rate was ~13% |
12.0 |
China production nil |
JACKS AND YELLOWTAILS |
Nil |
Actual rates for 3 of the 4 periods were minus |
Nil |
China production nil |
FRESHWATER PRAWNS |
10.0 |
Artificially capped rate (lowest rate was >16%) |
5.0 |
Artificial rate (lowest was 1.1% but it was nearly 13% in 1997-1999). The 98-99 increase was higher |
CRABS AND LOBSTERS |
10.0 |
Artificially capped rate (lowest was >26%) |
Nil |
Lowest rate minus |
MARINE SHRIMP |
4.4 |
1995-1999 |
2.4 |
1995-1999 |
Table 3. Parameters used in this study
SPECIES GROUP |
YEAR |
AFCR[18] |
% FED ON AQUAFEEDS |
INCLUSION RATE IN FEEDS (%) |
|
FISHMEAL |
FISH OIL |
||||
COMMON CARP |
1999 |
2.0 |
25 |
5 |
1 |
2015 |
1.5 |
50 |
2 |
1 |
|
2030 |
1.3 |
80 |
0 |
1 |
|
TILAPIA |
1999 |
2.0 |
40 |
7 |
1 |
2015 |
1.5 |
60 |
3 |
1 |
|
2030 |
1.3 |
90 |
0 |
1 |
|
CATFISH |
1999 |
1.6 |
85 |
3 |
1 |
2015 |
1.4 |
90 |
0 |
1 |
|
2030 |
1.2 |
95 |
0 |
1 |
|
SELECTED FRESHWATER FISH |
1999 |
2.5 |
50 |
50 |
10 |
2015 |
1.8 |
80 |
25 |
15 |
|
2030 |
1.5 |
100 |
15 |
15 |
|
EELS |
1999 |
2.0 |
80 |
50 |
10 |
2015 |
1.5 |
90 |
40 |
8 |
|
2030 |
1.2 |
95 |
20 |
8 |
|
SALMON |
1999 |
1.2 |
100 |
40 |
25 |
2015 |
1.0 |
100 |
25 |
15 |
|
2030 |
0.8 |
100 |
15 |
15 |
|
TROUTS AND STURGEONS |
1999 |
1.2 |
100 |
30 |
15 |
2015 |
1.0 |
100 |
20 |
15 |
|
2030 |
0.8 |
100 |
15 |
15 |
|
MILKFISH |
1999 |
2.0 |
40 |
12 |
3 |
2015 |
1.5 |
60 |
5 |
2 |
|
2030 |
1.3 |
80 |
5 |
2 |
|
OTHER DIADROMOUS FISH |
1999 |
1.8 |
60 |
40 |
10 |
2015 |
1.5 |
80 |
20 |
10 |
|
2030 |
1.2 |
95 |
20 |
10 |
|
SELECTED MARINE FISH |
1999 |
2.0 |
60 |
45 |
10 |
2015 |
1.8 |
80 |
35 |
10 |
|
2030 |
1.4 |
90 |
25 |
10 |
|
REDFISH |
1999 |
2.0 |
80 |
45 |
20 |
2015 |
1.8 |
100 |
35 |
15 |
|
2030 |
1.4 |
100 |
25 |
10 |
|
JACKS AND YELLOW TAILS |
1999 |
2.0 |
80 |
45 |
20 |
2015 |
1.8 |
100 |
35 |
15 |
|
2030 |
1.4 |
100 |
25 |
10 |
|
FRESHWATER PRAWNS |
1999 |
2.0 |
85 |
20 |
1 |
2015 |
1.6 |
95 |
15 |
2 |
|
2030 |
1.4 |
100 |
15 |
2 |
|
CRABS AND LOBSTERS |
1999 |
1.8 |
80 |
25 |
2 |
2015 |
1.6 |
90 |
15 |
3 |
|
2030 |
1.4 |
90 |
15 |
3 |
|
MARINE SHRIMP |
1999 |
1.8 |
80 |
25 |
2 |
2015 |
1.6 |
90 |
15 |
3 |
|
2030 |
1.2 |
95 |
15 |
3 |
Table 4. Estimated fishmeal and fish usage by aquaculture in 1999 and projections for 2015 and 2030[19]
SPECIES GROUP |
YEAR |
FISHMEAL REQUIREMENTS (000 tonnes) |
FISH OIL REQUIREMENTS (000 tonnes) |
||
WORLD |
CHINA |
WORLD |
CHINA |
||
COMMON CARP |
1999 |
64 |
51 |
13 |
10 |
2015 |
117 |
109 |
58 |
54 |
|
2030 |
- |
- |
230 |
225 |
|
TILAPIA |
1999 |
61 |
31 |
9 |
5 |
2015 |
120 |
73 |
40 |
24 |
|
2030 |
- |
- |
191 |
130 |
|
CATFISH |
1999 |
18 |
- |
6 |
- |
2015 |
- |
- |
7 |
- |
|
2030 |
- |
- |
7 |
- |
|
SELECTED FRESHWATER FISH |
1999 |
78 |
56 |
15 |
11 |
2015 |
206 |
178 |
124 |
107 |
|
2030 |
537 |
502 |
537 |
502 |
|
EELS |
1999 |
182 |
132 |
36 |
26 |
2015 |
123 |
89 |
25 |
18 |
|
2030 |
52 |
38 |
21 |
15 |
|
SALMON |
1999 |
437 |
- |
273 |
- |
2015 |
1 107 |
- |
664 |
- |
|
2030 |
2 345 |
- |
2 345 |
- |
|
TROUTS AND STURGEONS |
1999 |
170 |
- |
85 |
- |
2015 |
101 |
- |
75 |
- |
|
2030 |
64 |
- |
64 |
- |
|
MILKFISH |
1999 |
37 |
- |
9 |
- |
2015 |
17 |
- |
7 |
- |
|
2030 |
20 |
- |
8 |
- |
|
OTHER DIADROMOUS FISH |
1999 |
11 |
- |
3 |
- |
2015 |
8 |
- |
4 |
- |
|
2030 |
11 |
- |
5 |
- |
|
SELECTED MARINE FISH |
1999 |
218 |
183 |
49 |
41 |
2015 |
936 |
864 |
268 |
247 |
|
2030 |
2 444 |
2 351 |
978 |
940 |
|
REDFISH |
1999 |
167 |
- |
74 |
- |
2015 |
896 |
- |
384 |
- |
|
2030 |
2 725 |
- |
1 090 |
- |
|
JACKS AND YELLOWTAILS |
1999 |
107 |
- |
47 |
- |
2015 |
94 |
- |
40 |
- |
|
1999 |
35 |
27 |
2 |
1 |
|
2015 |
107 |
96 |
14 |
13 |
|
2030 |
412 |
390 |
55 |
52 |
|
CRABS AND LOBSTERS |
1999 |
99 |
96 |
8 |
8 |
2015 |
274 |
272 |
55 |
54 |
|
2030 |
1 000 |
998 |
200 |
200 |
|
MARINE SHRIMP |
1999 |
407 |
62 |
33 |
5 |
2015 |
486 |
183 |
97 |
37 |
|
2030 |
735 |
392 |
147 |
78 |
|
TOTALS |
1999 |
2 091 |
638 |
662 |
107 |
2015 |
4 592 |
1 864 |
1 862 |
554 |
|
2030 |
10 397 |
4 671 |
5 899 |
2 142 |
Table 5. Global supplies[20] of fishmeal and oil and their estimated and potential usage by aquaculture
FISHMEAL |
FISH OIL |
|||||
YEAR |
GLOBAL SUPPLY (000 tonnes) |
USAGE BY AQUACULTURE (%) |
GLOBAL SUPPLY (000 tonnes) |
USAGE BY AQUACULTURE (%) |
||
GLOBAL |
CHINA |
GLOBAL |
CHINA |
|||
1999 |
6 548 |
32 |
10 |
1 360 |
49 |
8 |
2015 |
6 526 |
70 |
29 |
1 283 |
145 |
43 |
2030 |
6 526 |
159 |
72 |
1 283 |
460 |
167 |
Table 6. Chile: dispositions of landings for species, of which part or all has been converted into fishmeal and/or fish oil in 1997, 1998 and 1999 (tonnes)
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
||||
FISHMEAL |
OTHER USES |
FISHMEAL |
OTHER USES |
FISHMEAL |
OTHER USES |
|
ANCHOVY |
1 753 355 |
3 416 |
516 301 |
5 521 |
1 968 472 |
7 059 |
MACKEREL |
206 390 |
4 525 |
59 699 |
9 984 |
114 335 |
4 260 |
JACK MACKEREL |
2 529 663 |
374 993 |
1 128 683 |
478 702 |
876 199 |
339 624 |
HAKE |
57 702 |
1 845 |
331 951 |
1 851 |
282 570 |
4 749 |
SARDINE |
26 989 |
10 366 |
21 900 |
3 083 |
239 803 |
3 383 |
COMMON SARDINE |
439 011 |
1 494 |
315 848 |
140 |
775 754 |
366 |
OTHER SPECIES |
20 514 |
71 845 |
644 |
69 509 |
5 660 |
85 641 |
TOTALS |
5 033 624 |
468 484 |
2 375 026 |
568 790 |
4 262 793 |
445 082 |
Source: F. Pereira, pers. comm., 2001.
Table 7: Estimated catches (tonnes) from the Danish industrial fisheries in the North Sea, the Skagerrak and the Kattegat in 1999[21]
TARGET SPECIES |
NORTH SEA |
SKAGERRAK |
KATTEGAT |
TOTAL |
|
||||
SAND EEL |
500 105 |
11 081 |
569 |
511 755 |
SPRAT |
162 713 |
6 812 |
10 438 |
179 963 |
NORWAY |
40 969 |
6 822 |
675 |
48 466 |
BLUE WHITING |
41 117 |
3 623 |
273 |
45 013 |
HORSE MACKEREL |
4 432 |
73 |
78 |
4 583 |
|
||||
BY-CATCH |
||||
HERRING |
15 232 |
3 211 |
5 867 |
24 310 |
COD |
101 |
60 |
52 |
213 |
HADDOCK |
1 056 |
334 |
90 |
1 480 |
WHITING |
3 826 |
503 |
694 |
5 023 |
MACKEREL |
1 196 |
81 |
0 |
1 277 |
SAITHE |
40 |
37 |
0 |
77 |
GREY GURNARDS |
2 396 |
100 |
5 |
2 501 |
OTHERS |
16 985 |
3 689 |
271 |
20 945 |
|
||||
TOTALS |
790 68 |
36 426 |
19 012 |
845 606 |
Source: MAFF (2001).
Table 8: Average yearly ex-vessel price for species supplied to fishmeal plants
COUNTRY |
MAIN SPECIES |
US$/TON |
YEAR |
NOTES |
DENMARK |
Sand eel |
81 |
2000 |
Industry source |
DENMARK |
Sand eel |
92 |
2001 |
|
CHILE |
Horse mackerel (Jurel) |
80 |
2001 |
Price for fish purchased from independent vessels (F. Pereira, pers. comm., 2001) |
CHILE |
Common sardine and anchoveta |
45 |
2001 |
|
ICELAND |
Herring |
183 |
1998 |
Average yearly prices; market determined (R. Arnason, pers. comm. 2001) |
ICELAND |
Herring |
112 |
1999 |
|
ICELAND |
Herring |
|
2000 |
|
ICELAND |
Capelin |
100 |
1998 |
|
ICELAND |
Capelin |
61 |
1999 |
|
ICELAND |
Capelin |
|
2000 |
|
USA |
Atlantic menhaden |
133 |
1998-2000 |
www.st.nmfs.gov |
Table 9. International market price of fishmeal and fish oil; yearly average, CIF Hamburg (US$/tonnes)[22]
|
1970 |
1980 |
1985 |
1990 |
1995 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
FISHMEAL |
202 |
504 |
280 |
412 |
497 |
606 |
662 |
393 |
413 |
FISH OIL |
249 |
450 |
303 |
250 |
457 |
547 |
727 |
314 |
262 |
Source: Globefish (2001b).
Figure 1. Global fishmeal production 1976-1999 (mt)
Source: FAO Fishstat (2001).
Figure 2. Global fish oil production 1976-1999 (mt)
Source: FAO Fishstat (2001).
Figure 3. Estimated proportion of available fishmeal supplies used by global aquaculture and by China alone in 1999, with projections for 2015 and 2030 (%)[23]
Figure 4. Estimated proportion of available fish oil supplies used by global aquaculture and by China alone in 1999, with projections for 2015 and 2030 (%)[24]
Figure 5. Illustration of the time when the demands from aquaculture for fishmeal and fish oil would exceed supplies, assuming that supplies remain static at 1990-1999 average annual levels
[11] FAO major fishery
commodity group: meals, solubles, etc. [12] FAO major fishery commodity group: oils and fats. [13] International Standard Statistical Classification of Aquatic Animals and Plants. [14] Taxonomic code descriptors (taken from FAOs Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Information System) or scientific names have been specified where there is any doubt about the species named. [15] This excludes those reared in Viet Nam; see the following footnote. [16] This category should include giant river prawns reared in Viet Nam but the amount, although substantial, is not yet separately recorded in FAO data. [17] The rate applied is the lowest from the four historical periods 1984-1999, 1990-1999, 1995-1999, and 1997-1999, except where otherwise stated (some rates have been artificially set for the reasons stated in the table). [18] Apparent Feed Conversion Ratio (see section 3.3). [19] All usage figures have been rounded to the nearest thousand tons; in the totals columns, the proportion of resources utilized by Chinese aquaculture has also been shown as a percentage of the global total. [20] Global supplies of fishmeal and fish oil in 2015 and 2030 have been assumed to be the same as the 1990-1999 average annual supply. [21] Estimates from test samples. [22] Fishmeal: CIF Hamburg; Fish oil: CIF North West Europe. [23] Global supplies of fish meal in 2015 and 2030 have been assumed to be the same as the 1990-1999 annual average supply. [24] Global supplies of fish oil in 2015 and 2030 have been assumed to be the same as the 1990-1999 annual average supply. |