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Tropical fruits

Introduction

World production and trade of fresh tropical fruit is expected to expand over the next decade. Developing countries account for about 98 percent of total production, while developed countries account for 80 percent of world import trade. The major tropical fruits account for approximately 75 percent of global fresh tropical fruit production. Mango is the dominant tropical fruit variety produced worldwide, followed by pineapples, papaya and avocado. For the purpose of the projections exercise, these four varieties are referred to as "major tropical fruits". Other fruits, such as lychees, durian, rambutan, guavas, and passionfruit are referred to as "minor tropical fruits"[19], and while produced and traded in smaller volumes, their market shares have been expanding rapidly in recent years.

The projections analysis utilized dynamic time series models to forecast global production and import trade of fresh tropical fruit to 2010. Projections assumed normal weather patterns and the continuation of past trends in planted area, yield, income growth and population. The dynamic nature of the global tropical fresh fruit market was captured utilizing autoregressive distributed lag models, while the forecast results were obtained from an s-step a-head ADL model, where "s" is the forecast horizon or final year of projections (2010).

The market prospects for production and import demand of the four major fresh fruits were analysed, and adjustments made to the forecast results to reflect current trends, policies and future market prospects. The forecasting model captured the numerous fluctuations in import trade and production to a satisfactory level for the four fresh fruits analysed. However, the projections do not account for processed fruit production and trade, due to constraints on both trade information and forms of fruit. Similarly, limited data availability on minor tropical fruit precluded the inclusion of these fruits in this projections exercise.

Production

World production of major tropical fruits is expected to reach 62 million tonnes by 2010, an increase of 15.4 million tonnes over the 1998 - 2000 base period. Developing countries should continue to account for 98 percent of global production, with developed countries at 2 percent The forecast ten-year compound growth rate of 2.6 percent between the base period and 2010, although less than the average annual growth rates of recent years, is in line with current assumptions and past trends. Most of the increase in production in recent years comes from expanded planted areas particularly intended for export trade.

Asia and the Pacific region should continue to be the major producing region by 2010, accounting for slightly more than 56 percent of global tropical fruit production, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (32 percent) and Africa (11 percent). The United States, Europe and Oceania account for the remaining 1 percent of global production. Developing countries should continue to expand their global share of tropical fruit production by 2010, from nearly 96 percent (1988-90) to the 99 percent forecast. However, the Latin America and the Caribbean region is estimated to account for virtually all of the forecast growth in global tropical fruit production by 2010, with flat to marginally declining output in the Asia and the Pacific region, and in Africa.

Global production of mangoes is forecast to reach 30.7 million tonnes by 2010, accounting for nearly 50 percent of world tropical fruit production. Slightly more than 77 percent of world mango output is expected to be produced in Asia and the Pacific by the end of the projections period, 13 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean and 9 percent in Africa. India is expected to remain the world’s largest mango producing nation, accounting for 40 percent of total global output, with production forecast at 12.3 million tonnes.

The most significant increase in mango production for the Asia and the Pacific region is forecast for China, with nearly 8 percent forecast compound growth and projected output forecast to increase from 2.8 million tonnes to nearly 6.3 million by 2010. Production in Mexico, the largest mango producing nation in Latin America and the Caribbean, is forecast to increase to 1.9 million tonnes. Overall, production is expected to reach 23.7 million tonnes in Asia and the Pacific, 4.1 million in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 2.8 million in Africa. Asia and the Pacific should continue to be the most significant region for world mango production, supported by strong forecast growth in China, Thailand, the Philippines and India.

Pineapple output for 2010 is forecast at 15.8 million tonnes, nearly 26 percent of world tropical fruit production. The Asia and the Pacific region is expected to account for 45 percent of pineapple production, with 36 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 16 percent in Africa. The forecast indicates a declining share of global pineapple production for Asia and the Pacific with total output anticipated to reach 7.1 million tonnes, despite strong growth rates forecast for the Philippines and Thailand. Latin America and the Caribbean should account for the most significant growth in pineapple production by 2010, supported by compound growth expectations of 8.4 and 2.7 percent for Costa Rica and Brazil, respectively. The declining trend in pineapple production in the United States is not offset by a forecast increase in output for South Africa, resulting in projected negative growth for developed countries of 1.2 percent by the end of the projections period.

Papaya production is forecast to show the strongest growth in output of the four major fruits. Output is expected to reach 12.4 million tonnes, with nearly 65 percent produced in Latin America and the Caribbean, 30 percent in Asia and the Pacific, and 9.7 percent in Africa. Growth is forecast at nearly 4 percent over the projections period, mostly supported by increased forecast production in Brazil and India. Output in Brazil is forecast to reach 6 million tonnes, accounting for almost half of total global output, while production in India is forecast at 2.5 million tonnes, slightly more than 20 percent of forecast total production. Nigeria continues to be the third largest producer of papaya globally, with forecast production at 951 000 tonnes or nearly 8 percent of world output.

Avocado production is forecast to reach 3.1 million tonnes by 2010, with developing countries accounting for slightly more than 82 percent of forecast output. Although Latin America and the Caribbean continues to be the largest producing region of avocado worldwide, the percent share of total global output declines from nearly 73 percent (1988-90) to 65 percent by 2010. Conversely, output in Asia and the Pacific is forecast to increase to 356 000 tonnes, accounting for slightly more than 11 percent of global output, up from 5 percent (1988-90). Mexico continues to be the most important producing nation, accounting for nearly 40 percent of total world output, with forecast production of 356 000 tonnes.

Import demand

Demand prospects[20] for fresh tropical fruits over the current decade are expected to be favourable with the forecast compound growth rate at nearly 8 percent over the projections period for major tropical fruits. Global imports are forecast to reach 4.3 million tonnes by 2010 with 87 percent or 3.8 million tonnes destined for developed country markets. The EC is expected to remain the world’s largest import market, followed by the United States, together accounting for 70 percent of import demand. Europe is expected to remain the main market outlet for tropical fruit, with France a major importer and Netherlands the major European transshipment point for imported tropical fruit.

Forecasts for 2010 indicate increased import volumes for all four major tropical fruits (pineapple, mango, avocados, papaya), with the largest percent increase forecast for mango at 9.7 percent. The United States, the EC, Japan, Canada and China (Hong Kong SAR) remain the largest import markets for fresh tropical fruit. World trade should continue to be dominated by pineapples, although significant growth in exports has been recorded for other tropical fruits, particularly mango.

Pineapple imports are forecast to increase nearly 6 percent over the projections period and will account for 42 percent of total world import volumes by 2010, down from the estimated nearly 50 percent of global demand for 2000. The United States is expected to remain the world’s largest importer of fresh pineapple, accounting for 46 percent of global imports. Forecast growth in that market, at slightly more than 10 percent, should be largely driven by income and population growth, as well as consumer trends.

Mango imports, at 1.5 million tonnes forecast for 2010, should continue to show the strongest growth in import demand, with the United States and the EC being the top importing nations. The EU (excluding intra-EU trade) is forecast to import 514 000 tonnes of mango by 2010, with forecast growth at 15.7 percent. There is a pronounced seasonality to the European market, with large quantities imported during the second (April-June) and fourth (October-December) quarters. Although France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom should continue to be the primary import markets, Spain may emerge as a more important import market player. Mango imports into the United States are expected to grow nearly 7 percent on average, to reach 450 000 tonnes by 2010.

Global avocado imports are forecast to reach 712 000 tonnes, growing by nearly 8 percent by 2010. Although developed country markets should account for 86 percent of global import trade, this percentage declined slightly from the 1998 - 2000 period. Developing countries are expected to account for 14 percent of global avocado imports, almost entirely attributable to forecast growth in the Latin American and the Caribbean region. The United States and France are expected to be the world’s largest importers of avocado by 2010, at 29 percent and 19 percent of total world imports, respectively. Forecast growth in the production of avocado in the United States (2 percent) will not be sufficient to meet anticipated demand for avocado. Imports are forecast to reach 205 000 tonnes, a growth rate of 11 percent.

Global papaya imports are forecast to grow 8.3 percent, reaching 336 000 tonnes over the projections period. Papaya is expected to account for the largest share of tropical fruit imports by developing countries, with imports forecast at 99 000 tonnes or 29.5 percent of total world trade for 2010. The Asia and the Pacific region is forecast to account for 87 percent of developing country papaya imports. The United States is expected to remain the largest import market in the world, with forecast volume at 161 000 tonnes, accounting for 48 percent of total global trade.

Prices

Tropical fruit prices have recently been on a downward trend as supplies expanded in recent years, with prices varying widely by variety and season. Import demand for the major tropical fruits is also largely driven by quality and price, unlike the minor tropical fruits[21] where novelty plays a large role in consumer purchasing.

Overall, prices have steadied in recent years in the United Kingdom, but have fallen from the highs of the early 1990s, particularly for papayas, mostly due to the increase in diversity of sources and volumes imported. Similarly, in France and Germany there was a downward trend in prices, but less pronounced than in the United Kingdom. Price patterns in general show seasonality, more pronounced for certain products, such as mango, which is driven by non-regular supply and peaks in demand during particular periods. In fact, marketing strategies from trade operators are reportedly being focussed on improved regularity in supply flows. A good example is papaya, where increased imports in developed markets have been triggered by larger and more constant availability from major exporting countries in Latin America and the Far East.

In addition, retail price of tropical fruit is influenced by a variety of factors, mainly associated with post-harvest handling. Price fluctuations may be exacerbated by the relative inelasticity of short-term retail demand in large markets, for example, the United States, where retail merchandisers typically need two to three weeks to build a promotional campaign in order to sell the fruit. Distance from field to market and volume of shipments are important components since they influence freight rates, which often determine the degree of competitiveness of the products on the market.

Price elasticities of demand for the major fruits particularly demonstrate that consumer preference may easily shift from tropical to other fruits if prices are subject to sudden increases. Therefore, improved quality and yields, lower waste, and cost effective pest control and packaging process could help in sustaining price remuneration.

Issues and uncertainties

Policy issues of immediate concern pertain mostly to increased market access and competitiveness, and should continue to drive policy discussion throughout the projections period. The more dynamic exporting countries, particularly those in Asia, are striving to improve production and quality control in order to increase competitiveness in international markets. Several exporting countries including Thailand and the Philippines are actively pursuing policies aimed at relaxing non-tariff barriers (mostly on SPS grounds) in major importing countries in order to allow access to markets at competitive prices. Several WTO panel decisions were favourable for both countries in 2001.

Certain countries set import restrictions on tropical fruits containing a determined quantity of pesticide. Apart from food safety concerns of consumers, under the SPS measures, an effective substitute or substitutes, not only in technical but also economic terms, for methyl bromide has to be found quickly to enhance exporting efforts.

This should eventually lead the entire supply chain, from field to shelf, to be appropriately managed to ensure proper balance between regular supplies and quality issues. There is an urgent need to continue research on alternatives to methyl bromide, and harmonize treatments for fruit exports to enhance food safety and trade.

Table 2.62. Tropical fruits: actual and projected production


ACTUAL

PROJECTED

GROWTH RATES

AVOCADO







1988-1990

1998-2000

2010

1988-90 to

1998-2000


Average

Average


1998-2000

to 2010








000 tonnes

Percent per year







WORLD

1 830

2 369

3 116

2.6

2.5







Developing

1 537

1 944

2 561

2.4

2.5

Africa

117

131

156

1.1

1.6

Latin Amer. & Carib.

1 322

1 579

2 036

1.8

2.3


Brazil

116

86

71

-3.0

-1.7


Peru

87

77

85

-1.2

0.9


Mexico

614

888

1 235

3.8

3.0

Asia and Pacific

95

232

356

9.4

4.0


Indonesia

69

128

155

6.3

1.7







Developed

293

425

555

3.8

2.5

Europe

53

74

91

3.4

1.9


Spain

45

59

72

2.9

1.8

North America

148

175

219

1.7

2.0


United States

148

175

219

1.7

2.0

Other developed

79

144

196

6.1

2.9


Israel

35

68

52

6.9

-2.4


South Africa

45

76

144

5.5

6.0






ACTUAL

PROJECTED

GROWTH RATES

MANGO







1988-1990

1998-2000

2 010

1988-90 to

1998-2000


Average

Average


1998-2000

to 2010








000 tonnes

Percent per year







WORLD

16 310

22 875

30 714

3.4

2.7







Developing

16 260

22 781

30 575

3.4

2.7

Africa

1 594

2 194

2 774

3.2

2.2

Latin Amer. & Carib.

2 635

3 296

4 077

2.3

2.0


Brazil

544

488

454

-1.1

-0.7


Mexico

1 092

1 514

1 951

3.3

2.3

Asia and Pacific

12 024

17 286

23 724

3.7

2.9


India

8 359

9 861

12 289

1.7

2.0


China

608

2 765

6 275

16.4

7.7


Pakistan

738

927

1 113

2.3

1.7


Philippines

356

887

1 121

9.5

2.2


Thailand

867

1 317

1 812

4.3

2.9







Developed

50

94

139

6.5

3.7

Europe




...

...

North America

9

3

3

-11.3

1.0


United States

9

3

3

-11.3

1.0

Other developed

41

91

121

8.4

2.6


Australia

7

34

31

16.5

-0.7


Israel

8

24

50

11.7

7.0


South Africa

25

33

40

2.8

1.6








ACTUAL

PROJECTED

GROWTH RATES

PAPAYA







1988-1990

1998-2000

2010

1988-90 to

1998-2000


Average

Average


1998-2000

to 2010








000 tonnes

Percent per year







WORLD

3 278

8 140

12 355

9.5

3.9







Developing

3 211

8 090

12 302

9.7

3.9

Africa

724

1 013

1 197

3.4

1.5


Nigeria

472

749

951

4.7

2.2

Latin Amer. & Carib.

1 324

4 511

7 991

13.0

5.3


Brazil

676

3 283

6 001

17.1

5.6


Mexico

323

606

492

6.5

-1.9


Peru

85

169

252

7.1

3.7

Asia and Pacific

1 152

2 553

3 721

8.3

3.5


India

397

1 582

2 483

14.8

4.2


Indonesia

340

456

499

3.0

0.8


Thailand

100

119

135

1.7

1.2







Developed

67

49

53

-3.0

0.6

Europe




...

...

North America

32

21

26

-4.3

2.1


United States

32

21

26

-4.3

2.1

Other developed

35

29

26

-1.8

-0.9


Australia

5

6

7

2.9

0.7


South Africa

30

22

19

-2.9

-1.4








ACTUAL

PROJECTED

GROWTH RATES

PINEAPPLE







1988-1990

1998-2000

2 010

1988-90 to

1998-2000


Average

Average


1998-2000

to 2010








000 tonnes

Percent per year







WORLD

11 234

13 164

15 807

1.6

1.7







Developing

10 292

12 561

15 280

2.0

1.8

Africa

1 671

2 061

2 455

2.1

1.6


Côte d'Ivoire

203

232

240

1.4

0.3


Kenya

210

290

293

3.3

0.1

Latin Amer. & Carib.

2 783

3 554

5 654

2.5

4.3


Brazil

1 286

1 294

1 736

0.1

2.7


Costa Rica

143

440

1 072

11.9

8.4


Mexico

425

503

443

1.7

-1.1

Asia and Pacific

5 811

6 923

7 148

1.8

0.3


Philippines

1 172

1 514

1 709

2.6

1.1


Thailand

1 881

2 148

2 062

1.3

-0.4







Developed

942

603

527

-4.4

-1.2

Europe

2

2

2

0.0

0.0


EU (15)

2

2

2

0.0

0.0

North America

549

314

208

-5.4

-3.7


United States

549

314

208

-5.4

-3.7

Other developed

392

287

317

-3.1

0.9


South Africa

210

143

178

-3.7

2.0


Japan

35

13

9

-9.5

-3.2


Australia

148

131

130

-1.2

-0.1



[19] Minor tropical fruits, such as lychees, durian, rambuttan, guavas and passionfruit, are traded mostly at the regional level and in smaller volumes than the major tropical fruits. International trade classifications generally do not provide sufficient detail to desegregate global figures, and FAO is actively pursuing the implementation of a suitable reporting procedure through its statutory bodies. FAO estimates that production of minor tropical fruits reached 15 million tonnes, or 24 percent, of total world tropical fruit production in 2000.
[20] Estimated international demand for tropical fruits in the major developed markets is derived from import data, because all fresh fruit imports for the purpose of this analysis are assumed to be direct food use consumption as the fresh product cannot be stored over time. Negligible import volumes are considered waste. Most consumption of tropical fresh fruit occurs in those developing countries that produce it. Availability of supply, seasonal marketing pressures and retail prices are also important factors in the analysis of international demand for tropical fruit. Generally, a producing country will specialize in one particular demand segment.
[21] Novelty purchasing tends to play a larger role in consumer demand for minor tropical fruits, whereas price and quality tend to be more significant for the major fruits.

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