Horizon: in bracket is the year the projections were made
(used as baseline).
Full references of documents used are presented in
Appendix 2.
Countries are presented in alphabetical order.
|
BANGLADESH |
Horizon |
Two documents available: |
Projections |
6th five-year plan: Freshwater aquaculture
output = 1 466 750 tonnes |
Species |
Shrimps, carps, pangas, rajpunti, tilapia. |
Methodology |
Analysis of past plans and failure. Evaluation of development potential of various fisheries sub-sectors by documents authors. |
Assumptions |
Use of forecasted population and per capita fish consumption growth. No indication about price variations. (Expected total income from increased production calculated on the basis of average price of Tk80 per kg - fixed over plan duration). |
Means of achievement |
Prices: Not specified |
Constraints to overcome |
Ensured supply of fish feed, selection of high-yielding broodstock, fish health management, multiple ownership of ponds and water bodies, complex credit norms, weak institutional capabilities in aquaculture development. |
|
BRAZIL |
Horizon |
(2003) - 2006 (grouped with capture fisheries) |
Projections |
Total aquaculture output = 640 870 tonnes (+ 22 percent
average per annum - calculated with foreseen annual increase of 22
percent from 2001 - 2002 figure of 210 000 tonnes). |
Species |
Shrimp and tilapia. |
Methodology |
Examined natural resources, past growth and per capita consumption. Diagnosis of main problems. |
Assumptions |
Deficit in fish in 2010 = 25 million tonnes estimated from population growth and consumption of 14 kg per capita per year. |
Means of achievement |
Prices: Reduction in price of primary
products. |
Constraints to overcome |
Structural problems, low productivity, small farms. Conflicts over water resources. Lack of: trained labour, formulated feeds, suitable financing means and investments, sanitary controls, producers organizations. No policies for most productive species. |
|
CANADA |
Horizon |
(2001) - 2006 (freshwater aquaculture)(2000) - 2015 |
Projections |
Total aquaculture output = 577 000 tonnes (+ 5 percent average
per annum), including: |
Species |
Salmon and cod as main finfish species. Mussels and oysters as main shellfish species. |
Planning methodology |
Strategic planning workshop with industry and government experts.Not specified for freshwater aquaculture projections. |
Assumptions |
Markets: US imports of farm raised fish and seafood
increase at 15 percent annually. Canada maintains 45 percent of market share
with the USA. Consumer confidence is upheld and reinforced. |
Means of achievement |
Prices: Not specified. |
Constraints to overcome |
General constraints: perceived conflicts in mandates (policy
framework), resources (financial and human). |
|
CHILE |
Horizon |
(2003) - 2013 |
Projections |
Salmon output to double (= 0.9 million tonnes, + 7.2 percent average per annum) |
Species |
Salmon mainly. Other competitive species include abalone, oyster, hake, seaweeds, turbot |
Methodology |
Delphi Method (180 experts from private, public and academic sectors) |
Assumptions |
Increase in the nominal price of Atlantic salmon in the next 10 years to US$3 - 4 per kg[5]. |
Means of achievement |
Prices: Not specified. |
Constraints to overcome |
Trade barriers and dumping accusations, ecological challenges, shortage of R&D, conflicts over the coastline and excessive regulation, and short time horizon of companies. |
|
CHINA |
Horizon |
(2000) - 2005 (10th five-year plan);2010 - 2020 (FAO estimates) |
Projections |
Output 2005 = 30.8 million tonnes 51 million tonnes (+ 2.2
percent average per annum) |
Species |
Not specified. |
Methodology |
Panel of experts (academics, industry representatives and government officers). Public participation. |
Assumptions |
Growth rates achieved during past plan in addition to changes and reforms and international situation (e.g. WTO accession). |
Means of achievement |
Prices: Not specified |
Constraints to overcome |
Unclear. |
|
EGYPT |
Horizon |
(2000) - 2017 |
Projections |
Output = 810 000 to 870 000 tonnes (+ 5.5 percent average
per annum to achieve 840 000 tonnes). |
Species |
Freshwater species (Nile tilapia, carps, catfish). "Highly-productive strains adapted to culture conditions". |
Methodology |
Not specified. No apparent public participation. |
Assumptions |
Future output needed based on human population projections, with consumption levels kept constant at 2000 levels (11.3 kg per capita). No assumption on prices. |
Means of achievement |
Prices: Not specified |
Constraints to overcome |
Conflicts over resource use (priority for land and water
resources given to agriculture, land and freshwater availability). |
|
INDIA |
Horizon |
(1995) - 2005 (freshwater aquaculture) |
Projections |
Freshwater aquaculture output to double: from 1 512 000 tonnes in 1995 to 3 312 800 tonnes in 2005 (Operation Aqua-Gold, "Matsyavardhan") (+ 8.2 percent average per annum). |
Species |
Major carps (Indian, Chinese and common carp), with other species of fish and shellfish (minor carps, catfishes, freshwater prawns according to availability and demand in different states).Ornamental fish and freshwater pearls also considered for diversification. |
Planning methodology |
Extrapolations based on available statistics, previous publications and the seven document authors experience in the field. |
Assumptions |
Duly consideration given to resources, prevalent production
levels and consumer preferences in the preparation of the blue print for
development "Operation Aqua-Gold" (Matsyavardhan). |
Means of achievement |
Prices: Not mentioned. |
Constraints to overcome |
Not specified. |
|
INDONESIA |
Horizon |
(2003) - 2009 |
Projections |
Output to double (= 2.9 million tonnes, + 11.1 percent average
per annum) |
Species |
Shrimps? |
Methodology |
No apparent public consultation |
Assumptions |
Unclear (no mention of prices) |
Means of achievement |
Prices: Not mentioned. |
Constraints to overcome |
Market globalisation, regulations and laws, lay-out of aquaculture zones, capital, extension institution, marketing and distribution, technologies, security and culture facilities/infrastructures. |
|
PHILIPPINES |
Horizon |
(2001) - 2004 |
Projections |
Increase output to 663 000 tonnes (+ 15.1 percent average per annum). |
Species |
Finfish and crustaceans |
Methodology |
Philippine Fisheries Industry Plan (1999 - 2004) drafted during a consultative meeting with stakeholders and validated by fishery experts. This plan was then used in the formulation of the Aquaculture Research, Development and Extension Agenda (document obtained). |
Assumptions |
Past environmental damage, disease and possible effects on commercial fisheries from shrimp and cage milkfish taken into account. |
Means of achievement |
Prices: Not specified. |
Constraints to overcome |
The Plan was recognized as ambitious. Space limitations in
brackish aquaculture and growing concerns for environmental protection and
management (acknowledgement of past environmental degradation). |
|
THAILAND |
Horizon |
(1996) - 2010 |
Projections |
Total aquaculture output = 704 349 tonnes (+ 1.7 percent
average per annum), including: |
Species |
Nile tilapia, catfish, shrimp (P. monodon), green mussel and oyster; high-value species such as groupers, mudcrabs, squids. |
Methodology |
No apparent consultation though a "consensus" is mentioned. |
Assumptions |
For all species, domestic price assumed constant (1992 - 2001). 2001 value of 64 percent of total production from freshwater aquaculture kept constant in 2010 forecasts |
Means of achievement |
Prices: Not specified. |
Constraints to overcome |
Adequacy of infrastructures, financial resources, skilled labour. Disease, environmental constraints (pollution) and competition. Governmental and public appreciation of the importance of the sector. Poor communication between the aquaculture industry and the communities, compatibility of Thai aquaculture with responsible environmental stewardship. |
|
VIET NAM |
Horizon |
(2001) - 2010 |
Projections |
Output = 2 000 000 tonnes (+ 10 percent average per annum). |
Species |
Not specified. |
Methodology |
Not specified (assumed based on past growth of the sector) |
Assumptions |
Increase in population and purchasing power. |
Means of achievement |
Prices: not specified |
Constraints to overcome |
Not specified. |
[5] 2002 price for Atlantic
salmon was US$ 2.7 per kg. |