Planting of the 2002 second-season foodcrops is completed. The early outlook is favourable reflecting abundant rains at sowing. The output of the 2002 first season crops, mainly of non-cereal foodcrops, was good. Production of cereals and beans remained almost unchanged. Food prices that declined at harvest time in December/January remain stable.
Food assistance continues to be required for some 432 000 internally displaced people as a result of insecurity in parts. Intensified fighting between Government forces and rebels in the past month has resulted in fresh waves of population displacement, particularly in Bujumbura Rural province.
The final estimate of the 2001 cereal crop is now put at about 220 000 tonnes. This is about twice the harvest of the previous year and about average. Furthermore, the favorable weather outlook forecast for the March-May period in major cereal producing areas is anticipated to encourage planting of long-cycle cereal crops.
The overall food supply situation, however, remains tight reflecting the displacement of farmers by the recent war with Ethiopia and lingering effects of drought. Although the number of IDPs in camps is gradually declining (currently about 50 000), food assistance continues to be required, and also for refugees returning from Sudan, demobilized soldiers, resettled IDPs and drought affected people. During 2001, WFP distributed about 150 000 tonnes of food to 1 million beneficiaries and expects to distribute about 130 000 tonnes to 800 000 people in 2002.
Planting of the 2002 secondary “belg” grain crops is underway. The belg crop accounts for some 10 percent of total grain production but in some areas it provides most of the annual grain production.
The 2001 main “meher” season grain harvest was estimated by FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission late last year at 88 million tonnes, about 5 percent above the average of the previous five years. The bumper harvest has resulted in sharply falling grain prices in most markets, negatively impacting on farmers’ income, and could also negatively affect this year’s production. On the other hand, the low prices offer an opportunity for a significant build-up of stocks at all levels. Export possibilities to neighbouring countries will be restricted because of good harvests in neighbouring Kenya and Sudan.
The overall good harvest masks the existence of food insecure communities in most parts of the country due to localized drought, population displacement and limited purchasing power. Emergency food requirements in 2002 are projected at about 560 000 tonnes targeting some 5.2 million people. The Mission strongly recommended local purchases to the extent possible for donors wishing to give food aid to the country. (For more details, the Mission Report can be found at the address http://www.fao.org/giews/english/alerts/2002/SRETH202.htm)
The 2002 main “long rains” cropping season has begun and the early outlook is favourable according to the forecast near-normal rainfall. Exceptions are Turkana, western Marsabit, northern coastal districts and areas around the shores of Lake Victoria.
Harvesting of the 2001/02 secondary "short rains" cereal crop, which accounts for some 15 percent of annual production, is complete. Favourable rains during the season in main producing areas helped improve yields. The 2001 main "long rains" cereal crop was significantly higher than in 2000, mainly reflecting abundant and well distributed rains in the main producing area of the Rift Valley Province. The aggregate 2001/02 maize production is now estimated at 2.7 million tonnes. Maize prices have declined sharply in recent months, prompting the Government to appeal to donors to increase local purchases.
Despite an overall improvement in food supply, food difficulties persist in pastoral areas, particularly in Turkana, Mandera and parts of Marsabit Districts, where erratic rains continue to constrain food production. An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in April 2002 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to 1.26 million drought-affected people, worth US$ 36.26 million for a period of 6-1/2 months (15 April to 31 October).
Planting of the 2002 second-season foodcrops is complete. Abundant rains in January and February provided adequate soil moisture for sowing operations, while normal precipitation in March allowed good establishment of the sorghum and bean crops. The early outlook is favourable. The output of the 2002 first season foodcrops was estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, 28 percent higher than last year’s first season, with the largest increases in non-cereal crops (banana, sweet potato and cassava).
The overall food supply situation remains satisfactory. Prices of the main food staples have declined significantly.
The output of the recently harvested secondary “Deyr” season cereal crop, normally accounting for some 25-30 percent of annual cereal production, is forecast at 141 000 tonnes, which is about 46 percent above the previous year’s harvest.
Despite the good “Deyr” harvest, however, the food supply situation in several parts including Gedo, East Sanag, Sool and parts of Bari gives cause for serious concern. Overall, more than 500 000 people are estimated to be facing severe food difficulties in Somalia, mainly due to past poor harvests due to successive droughts, long-term effects of insecurity and reduced foreign exchange earnings due to the continuing ban on livestock imports from eastern Africa by countries along the Arabian Peninsula.
The 2001/02 total cereal production has been estimated at 4.75 million tonnes, comprising 3.77 million tonnes of sorghum, about 579 000 tonnes of millet, 315 000 tonnes of wheat (being harvested) and about 146 000 tonnes of other cereals. At this level, cereal production is about 36 percent above last year’s crop and about 13 percent above the average of the last five years. Sorghum market prices have fallen below production costs in main producing areas, and this may depress planted area next year.
Despite the improved food supply situation, an estimated 3 million IDPs, drought-affected and vulnerable people in different parts of the country will require food assistance through 2002. An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in April 2002 by FAO and WFP for food assistance for 2.9 million people, worth US$132.8 million for a period of 12 months (1 April 2002 to 31 March 2003).
Prospects for the main season coarse grains in the southern highlands are favorable due to abundant rains. In the bi-modal areas the main season maize crop is now being planted. The weather forecast for March-May 2002 predicts a normal to above-normal rainfall over the northern-half of the country while normal to below-normal rains are predicted over the southern half.
Aggregate 2001/02 cereal production, mainly maize, is estimated at about 4 million tonnes, about 15.5 percent above the previous year’s harvest. Consequently, the overall food supply situation remains satisfactory. However, prices of maize continue to rise in the south due increased exports to neighbouring countries which are facing crop failures. Price increases are also observed in the east coast and northern parts of the country due reduced “Vuli” season harvests.
WFP is assisting some 166 000 people in drought-affected districts for a period of 2 months (up to end-April).
Harvesting of the 2001 secondary season crop is complete. Aggregate cereal production in 2002 is provisionally estimated at 1.7 million tonnes 9 percent and 5 percent above the 2001 and the previous five years average respectively. Scattered rains in March in many parts of the country signified the beginning of the main cropping season. The seasonal forecast for the March to May period indicates an increased likelihood of near normal to above-normal rainfall over central, western, south-western and north-western Uganda; while most eastern, south-eastern and north-eastern districts have increased likelihood of receiving near normal to below normal rainfall.
The start of the rains in pastoral areas of south-western region is replenishing ground water and rejuvenating vegetation. Livestock, therefore, currently have adequate access to drinking water and pastures. Seasonably dry conditions prevail in the north-eastern Karamoja region (Kotido, Moroto and Nakapiripirit Districts).
The overall food supply situation is seasonably satisfactory. However, some 700 000 refugees and displaced persons remain dependent on food assistance.