Recent locust invasion, described as the worst in 30 years, and floods in parts of the country have worsened the already unfavourable prospects for the 2002 cereal harvest. Hardest hit areas by the locust plague include the agriculturally important province of Baghlan. Heavy rains and floods in the northwestern parts and later in the central Province of Bamiyan have also destroyed large cropped areas
The overall food situation in Afghanistan remains precarious, notwithstanding the relative peace and improved delivery of food assistance. Emergency food aid programmes are facing funding shortfalls and the massive return of refugees from neighbouring countries is overwhelming humanitarian agencies. Years of civil strife and three successive years of severe drought have exposed millions of people to extreme hardship, with coping means virtually exhausted. An Emergency Operation worth US$284.98 million was jointly approved in January 2002 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to some 9.88 million most vulnerable people for a period of 9 months.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is scheduled to visit the country in late June to assess the overall food supply situation and estimate cereal import requirements in 2002/03, including food aid.
The cereal harvest this year is estimated at 414 000 tonnes, which is similar to the good harvest of 2001. The forecast cereal harvest, if achieved, would be some 33 percent higher than the average of the past six years. Domestic cereal consumption requirement is estimated at 752 000 tonnes, 267 000 tonnes of which will be commercially imported while food aid requirement is estimated at 71 000 tonnes. Targeted food aid in 2001 was estimated at 37 000 tonnes, mainly wheat.
The cereal harvest this year is seen at more than 2.4 million tonnes, nearly 400 000 tonnes higher than the improved harvest in 2001. The good harvest this year is mainly in response to an increase in the area planted to cereals by more than 114 000 hectares compared with the preceding year. However, much will depend on spring and early summer precipitation, lack of which have compromised grain harvests in the past.
The cereal import requirement for 2002/03 marketing year is estimated at 525 000 tonnes, including 505 000 tonnes of wheat and 20 000 tonnes of rice, which would be commercially procured. However, the most vulnerable and internally displaced population will continue to depend on targeted food assistance
Floods from heavy rains in neighbouring India have inundated some 150 000 hectares of land around Sumanganj, one of the country’s main rice growing areas. Although losses have not been assessed, some paddy was about to be harvested when the floods hit the area.
Harvesting of the 2002 wheat crop has been completed. Provisionally, the output is estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, about 9 percent above last year. Harvesting of the Boro (spring) rice crop will be completed at the end of the month. Reflecting favourable weather and adequate availability of agricultural inputs the output is expected to exceed the record of 12.6 million tonnes harvested last year. Assuming average yields for the other two crops currently in the ground, the Aus and the Aman, total rice output in 2001/02 is estimated at 26 million tonnes (milled), higher than both last year and average.
Reflecting a constant rise in domestic production, imports of cereals, mainly wheat, have declined from 4.2 million tonnes in 1998/99 to 1.7 million tonnes last year. For the 2001/02 marketing year (July/June) the cereal import requirement is estimated at 1.8 million tonnes. Government cereal stocks at the end of April 2002 amounted to 0.87 million tonnes, down compared to stocks held last year. Wheat and rice stocks as of April 2002 amounted to 0.63 and 0.24 million tonnes, respectively.
The main current agricultural activities include the completion of the harvesting of dry season paddy crops, estimated at 0.8 million tonnes, and planting/transplanting of main wet season rice due for harvest from November. The total 2001 paddy production, including 3.3 million tonnes of the main crop harvested earlier in the year, is estimated at 4.1 million tonnes, some 2 percent more than the previous season and above average for the third consecutive year. A preliminary forecast for 2002 indicates paddy production at 4.7 million tonnes from a planted area of 2.2 million hectares.
Maize production in 2001 is estimated to have increased by about 18 percent to 185 600 tonnes. The current season’s maize harvest is forecast at 185 000 tonnes from an area of 80 000 hectares. Availability of inputs is reported to be normal with the exception of vaccines and veterinary equipment, which are reported to be inadequate.
Despite the overall satisfactory food supply situation resulting from these successive bumper harvests, the communities affected by serious floods in previous years are still in need of food assistance.
The output from the 2002 winter wheat crop, now being harvested, is estimated at 81.7 million tonnes, some 7 percent lower than in 2001, reflecting a reduction in the area planted as a result of unfavourable weather at planting time and more attractive alternative crops such as rapeseed, vegetables, fruits and cotton. The outturn from the spring wheat crop recently planted and due for harvest from August is forecast at 6.1 million tonnes slightly below production in 2001. Wheat production in 2002 would then total 87.8 million tons, about 6 million tonnes less than last year and the lowest level since 1989.
The sowing of most of the 2002 coarse grain crops, mainly maize, is virtually completed. Given normal weather for the remainder of the season, production of coarse grains is forecast to increase to 131 million tonnes, some 4 percent more than last year. Maize output is forecast at 120 million tonnes, an increase of about 6 million tonnes compared to 2001.
Harvesting of the early rice crop has started. This is the smallest of the country's three rice crops, accounting for some 19 percent of total output. Production is estimated at some 33 million tonnes, 4 percent less than last year due to a slight reduction in the area planted. Output of the main rice crop, now being planted, is forecast at 104 million tonnes, an increase of 2 percent compared with 2001. Total 2002 paddy production is put at 179.5 million tonnes (123 million tonnes milled), similar to 2001 and more than 8 percent below the average of the previous five years. This total includes a tentative forecast of some 39 million tons from the late rice crop to be harvested from November.
The estimated cereal output of 342 million tonnes (including rice in milled terms) in 2002 is virtually the same as last year’s reduced crop and almost 8 percent below the 1997-2001 average. The shortfall in production is expected to be met by drawdown of stocks and increased imports.
The 2002 aggregate output of wheat and barley, now being harvested, is forecast at 82 000 tonnes, 36 percent lower than last year but about average. Cereal production normally covers less than one-third of total domestic requirements.
Imports of cereals in 2002/03 (May/April), mainly wheat and barley, are forecast at about 644 000 tonnes, similar to the previous year.
On 20 May 2002 the country became an independent nation. The large number of people that are returning from refugee camps in West Timor since December 2001 are in need of assistance. In addition, a survey carried out by the World Bank, the UNDP and other international organizations indicates that almost half of the total population of some 0.8 million live in poverty and under-nourishment.
Harvesting of the maize crop, one of the main staples of the country, has been completed while that of rice has just started. Output of cereals is estimated to be unchanged from last year and below average. Inadequate agricultural infrastructures and a poor marketing system continue to hinder development of the agricultural sector.
Winter crops suffered significant damage due exceptionally cold and dry winter and strong windstorms, while insufficient precipitation and water availability may compromise summer crop harvest. Therefore, cereal harvest this year is estimated at 577 000 tonnes, which is about 140 000 tonnes less than the somewhat improved harvest of the preceding year. Drought and structural problems have affected food production in the past few years when food aid has been necessary to fill the critical shortfall in food availability. This year’s forecast harvest is based on the assumption that drought does not affect summer crops as much as it did in 2000 when the country produced less than half the average harvest. Heavy precipitations in spring 2002 have partly damaged the crop in East Georgia (wheat) whereas they delayed plantings (maize) in West Georgia (only some 70 percent of the land had been sown by the end of May).
Activities under the WFP Emergency Operation originally in favour of the 2000 drought affected people are just completed in all the six targeted regions. Three rounds of free food distribution have been carried out in the five regions of East Georgia plus Imereti in West Georgia and two additional rounds were conducted in the latter, following the drought that affected it in July 2001 for the second consecutive year. A total of 184 community work projects, mostly rehabilitation of irrigation channels and feeder roads have been implemented since October 2001. Between February 2001 and May 2002, a total of 41 300 tons of food was distributed to 527 720 vulnerable persons including participants in community work projects.
Within the framework of the current WFP PRRO, FFW projects are on-going in three out of the five targeted regions. A total of 10 500 tonnes of mixed food is planned to be distributed to an average of 15 800 workers and their family (4 person ration) as a payment for their regions. The PRRO is scheduled to be finished at the end of March 2003. Up-to-date 90 percent of total commitment has been resourced.
Harvesting of the wheat crop is almost complete and sowing of the coarse grain and Kharif rice, oilseeds and groundnuts crops, for harvest from September, has begun. Reflecting favourable growing conditions, the output from the 2002 wheat crop is officially estimated at 73.5 million tonnes, higher than both the 2001 harvest of some 68.8 million tonnes and the 1997-2001 average of 70.3 million tonnes. Coarse grains production in 2002 is tentatively forecast at 33 million tonnes, some 2 million tonnes more than last year.
Production of Rabi and Kharif paddy crops in 2001 is estimated at record 136 million tonnes, 8.9 million tonnes higher than the previous year and above average. The early outlook is for a similar size crop in 2002.
Reflecting consecutive above average cereal harvests in recent years, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory and cereal stocks have increased to record levels. As of 1 March 2002 government stocks of wheat and rice stood at 28.46 million tonnes and 25.97 million tonnes respectively, sharply higher than the total buffer requirement of 16.8 million tonnes. In an effort to promote exports and reduce stocks, the Government in early March lifted the quantitative restrictions on exports of wheat and wheat products and increased the minimum support price of wheat.
Most of the area normally under the secondary rice crop has been planted. Aggregate paddy production in 2002 is estimated to decline by some 2 percent to 48.7 million tonnes reflecting a similar reduction in the area planted. The floods in late January and February, which affected 700 000 people across the country, is estimated to have destroyed 10 000 hectares, or 0.1 percent of total rice area. The output from the 2002 maize crop is provisionally estimated at 9.3 million tonnes, a slight increase compared to last year.
Lower paddy production should result in increased imports in the marketing year ending in March 2003. Currently planned imports in 2002/03 are set at 3 million tonnes. One million will be handled by BULOG (National Logistic Planning Agency) and the remainder by private traders. Imports of wheat and maize will also be needed.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (23 June)
In late April 2002, a series of minor earthquakes in western areas resulted in casualties and damage to property. Some 20 000 people, mostly farmers in the grain and fruit producing area of Songhor, were affected. Furthermore, on 22 June 2002, an earthquake measuring 6.3 on the Richter Scale and followed by several aftershocks struck Qazvin, Hamadan and Zanjan provinces, destroying or damaging more than 80 villages, causing over 200 deaths and injuring more than 1 000 people. So far, assistance is being provided by national relief organizations.
Main current agricultural activities include harvesting of wheat and planting of the paddy crop due for harvest from August. The 2002 wheat crop, which benefited from improved weather conditions since January, is expected to recover substantially from last year’s drought-affected crop and is provisionally estimated at 9.5 million tonnes. This is some 2 million tonnes more than in 2001. Prospects for the paddy crop will crucially depend on more rains to replenish the water reservoirs which have been seriously depleted by recurrent droughts.
The improved production will result in a marked drop in cereal import requirement for 2002/03 from an average of 9.9 million tonnes over the three previous years.
Despite shortages of some agricultural inputs, cereal output (mainly wheat and barley) in 2002 is forecast at 1.4 million tonnes, about 15 percent above last year due to improved precipitation compared to the previous three years.
Grain imported under the SCR 986 oil-for-food deal has led to significant improvements in the overall food supply situation, but malnutrition remains a serious problem. The United Nations Security Council passed on 14 May 2002 a new resolution that introduced comprehensive changes aimed at speeding up the processing and approval of civilian goods submitted for contracts signed under the oil-for-food programme.
Harvesting of the 2002 wheat crop is almost complete and the output is forecast at about 180 000 tonnes, about 68 percent above the average for the previous five years, as a result of favourable weather conditions.
Imports of cereals in 2002/03 (July/June) are forecast at some 2.8 million tonnes, almost similar to the previous year.
Planting of the main rice crop for harvest in October-November is underway. Paddy production in 2001 is estimated to have declined by 4 percent to 11.3 million tonnes reflecting a 2.6 percent reduction in the area planted and a slight decrease in yields. The output from the 2002 wheat crop, due for harvest soon, is provisionally estimated at 0.7 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from last year.
Imports of cereals (mainly maize and wheat) in the marketing year ending September 2002 are estimated at 26 million tonnes, slightly down compared to the previous year. In the current fiscal year ending 31 March 2003, the country has to import a minimum of 682 000 tonnes (milled equivalent) of rice under the Uruguay Round agricultural trade agreement.
Aggregate output of wheat and barley in 2002 is forecast at 55 000 tonnes, more than double last year’s reduced crop due mainly to favourable rainfall. Domestic cereal production normally meets only a small proportion of consumption requirements, the rest being covered by imports. Imports of wheat in 2002/03 (July/June) are forecast at 900 000 tonnes, slightly higher than last year. Coarse grain imports are forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, about the same as in 2001/02.
Despite an increase of 148 000 hectares in area under cereals, production this year is estimated at 12.5 million tonnes, which is some 3.4 million tonnes less than the harvest in 2001. Official estimates put wheat production at 9.7 million tonnes, barley at 1.9 million tonnes and maize at 300 000 tonnes in 2002. By contrast, last year’s bumper harvest produced some 12.7 million tonnes of wheat and 2.9 million tonnes of coarse grains.
Kazakhstan is set to export nearly 4.9 million tonnes of cereals in the coming marketing year compared with about 4.4 million tonnes in the 2001/02 marketing year. Wheat is the main export cereal and markets are mainly the neighbouring CIS countries and the Middle East.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF * (4 June)
Harvesting of spring wheat, barley and potato crops is underway and will be completed in the coming weeks. Wheat and barley production in the 2001/02 agricultural season is provisionally estimated at 178 000 tonnes, sharply above the previous year’s harvest. Including the main cereal crops harvested in late 2001, estimated at 2.9 million tonnes, total cereal production available for consumption in the marketing year ending in October 2002 totals 3.1 million tonnes, 0.8 million tonnes more than the previous year. Potato production in 2001/02 is estimated, in grain equivalent, at 475 000 tonnes against 290 000 tonnes in the previous year.
Notwithstanding the increased food production, domestic supplies fall short of requirements by some 1.5 million tonnes. With commercial imports estimated at about 100 000 tonnes, the remaining 1.4 million tonnes will have to be covered by food aid or concessional imports. Of this, WFP has estimated that 525 000 tonnes of cereals and 85 000 tonnes of other food are required to feed 6.4 million beneficiaries, mainly children, pregnant and nursing mothers as well as elderly people. Against this requirement, so far a total of about 400 000 tonnes is available, including carryovers from the end of 2001 and recent new pledges from the U.S. and Australia which have yet to arrive in the country. Owing to the delay in receiving new contributions, in May WFP had to scale back its operations, giving priority to the continued feeding of orphans, young children and pregnant and nursing women. An additional 130 000 tonnes of cereals are urgently required to meet the needs of the most vulnerable populations through to the end of 2002.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is scheduled to visit the country in late June 2002 to assess the early crop prospects and review the food supply situation.
Planting of the 2002 paddy crop, the most important cereal crop grown in the country, is underway. In 2001, for the third successive year, the country produced a bumper paddy crop estimated at 7.45 million tonnes, almost four percent more than the above-average crop harvested the previous year. This increase follows a slight expansion in area planted and better yields due to favourable weather at planting time. In September 2001 the Government implemented a new rice production policy in an attempt to encourage farmers to cultivate alternative crops. If the farmers accept this diversification, paddy output in 2002 could decrease for the first time in four years. The output from the barley crop, recently harvested, is estimated at 293 000 tonnes.
Cereal imports in 2001/02 marketing year (October/September), mostly maize and wheat, are estimated at 13 million tonnes, 0.6 million tonnes higher than the previous year.
The cereal harvest this year is forecast at more than 1.8 million tonnes, which compares with 1.9 million tonnes in 2001 and includes 1.3 million tonnes of wheat and 0.5 million tonnes of coarse grains (barley and maize). Domestic cereal consumption requirement is estimated at about 1.9 million tonnes. Cereal import requirement in 2002/03 marketing year is estimated at 165 000 tonnes, which will be commercially procured.
Planting of the main rainfed paddy crop is underway and will continue until late July. Aggregate paddy production in 2001 is estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous year and slightly above average. While this level of production virtually covers national consumption requirements, poor sections of the population in upland areas and people in the flood-prone areas who suffered crop losses have inadequate access to rice, are chronically food insecure and thus in need of food and other assistance. WFP is providing relief through both work for food projects and emergency operations.
The output of the 2002 wheat and barley, now being harvested, is expected to be about 81 000 tonnes, about the same as last year. The country depends heavily on imports (around 90 percent) to meet demand for rice, sugar and milk powder.
Imports of cereals - mainly wheat - in 2002/03 (July/June) are forecast at some 760 000 tonnes, similar to the previous year.
Panting of the irrigated secondary paddy crop, which normally accounts for more than 40 percent of total production, has been completed. Harvesting of the main paddy crop planted in August to November last year, finished in April. Aggregate paddy production in 2001 is estimated at 2.3 million tonnes, a 7 percent increase from the previous year. The 2002 paddy output, assuming a slight increase in area planted, could reach the same above average level of last year which represents some 70 percent of the country’s rice requirement. Imports in 2002 are forecast at some 600 000 tonnes. The requirement in wheat is covered by imports forecast at 1.4 million tonnes for 2002/03. The rapid recovery in the pig sector should result in increased imports of maize forecast at 2.9 million tonnes for 2002/03 compared to 2.7 million tonnes estimated for the previous year.
Planting of wheat, virtually the only cereal grown in the country, has recently been completed. The impact of the third consecutive harsh winter, coupled with serious problems in the agricultural sector, could result in a further reduction in wheat production in 2002 and thus an increased dependency on international food assistance. Production of wheat has declined steadily over the past years from 700 000 tonnes in the early 1990s to an estimated 191 000 tonnes in 2001. This production covers only about 50 percent of domestic wheat requirements, leaving an estimated import need for 2001/02 of 165 000 tonnes. Imports of some 33 000 tonnes of rice are also foreseen. The emergency food aid need is 40 000 tonnes of which 31 000 tonnes have been pledged and delivered.
Harsh winter conditions continue to stress livestock which play a fundamental role in the nutritional well-being of the majority of the population. A severe storm in March with snow, dust and winds caused further destruction and killed an additional 53 000 livestock bringing the total loss throughout the country, for the 2001/02 winter, to an estimated 2.5 million. As a result, the livelihood and food security of large numbers of nomadic herders, who depend entirely on animal rearing, was seriously affected. Some 5 200 families have lost all their animals and many more are in a precarious situation with insufficient animals remaining.
Planting of the main season rice crop will start with the arrival of the southwest monsoon rains. This crop, which is harvested from October, normally accounts for some 85 percent of aggregate production and its outcome will crucially depend on the performance of the monsoon. The remaining 15 percent of the paddy crop is produced under the second, or dry season crop harvested from April. Last year’s main season crop was above average. In aggregate, paddy production in 2001/02 is estimated at 21 million tonnes, similar to the previous year’s output. The wheat and coarse grains harvested in November 2001 yielded 85 000 tonnes and 537 000 tonnes, respectively. Reflecting better crops, exports of rice have increased in recent years; for the marketing year ending in June 2002 the Government forecasts rice exports to increase sharply to 1 million tonnes.
Planting of the main paddy crop, which is now underway, will continue until August. The output from the paddy crop harvested in November/December 2001 is estimated at 4.2 million tonnes (2.8 million tonnes in milled equivalent), 5 percent above the previous year. The output of wheat harvested in April 2002 is estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, an increase of 9 percent over 2001. The coarse grain production – mostly maize – in 2002 is forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, fractionally higher than in 2001.
Nepal is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. Floods, landslides, earthquakes and other calamities in recent years have resulted in casualties and loss of property and livestock. Thus, while the current level of domestic production altogether covers the country’s cereal requirement, more than 9 million people, representing some 42 percent of the country’s population, are food insecure living below the poverty line. A number of relief agencies, including WFP, support the most vulnerable groups through feeding and health care projects. Assistance is also needed for some 100 000 Bhutanese refugees.
The main current agricultural activities include the completion of the harvesting of the 2002 wheat crop and the planting of the paddy and coarse grain crops. Latest official estimates indicate production of wheat at some 19 million tonnes. Although this is below the target of 20 million tonnes, as a result of less area sown and lower yields following shortage of irrigation water, it is still almost 3 percent above average.
Paddy production is tentatively forecast at about 5 million tonnes, lower than both previous year (5.6 million tonnes) and average. The area planted is expected to decline for the second consecutive year as severe shortage of irrigation water forced growers to switch to other somewhat less water demanding crops. The output of coarse grains in 2001, mostly maize, is estimated at 2.1 million tonnes, and a similar production is provisionally forecast for 2002.
On 22 March 2002, a WFP Emergency Operation was approved for food assistance to drought- affected persons in Balochistan and Sindh provinces. The Operation will provide 20 500 tonnes of cereals and other food to 343 000 targeted individuals in the two provinces.
A strong earthquake measuring 7.2 on the Richter scale struck Guam on 27 April without causing casualties or major damage.
Harvesting of the secondary rice and maize crops is complete. Total paddy production in 2002 is officially forecast at 12.9 million tonnes, unchanged from last year’s good crop. The improved production over the past 5 years is mainly due to an increase in the area sown under high-yielding varieties. The output from the maize crop is expected to remain al last year’s level of 4.5 million tonnes.
Since wheat is not produced in the country, the estimated requirements of some 3.0 million tonnes are all imported. An import of about 600 000 tonnes of maize will also be needed.
Aggregate output of wheat and barley in 2002 is forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, similar to last year. Imports of coarse grains (mainly barley and maize) in 2002/03 (July/June) are forecast to remain unchanged at 6.5 million tonnes.
No locusts were reported during May and no significant developments are likely.
Land preparation and sowings of the mostly irrigated Yala dry season paddy crop are complete. The dry season crop for harvest in August/September accounts for around one third of aggregate paddy production, the rest coming from the Maha crop planted in October/November to coincide with the main rainy season. The output from the 2002 Maha crop, harvested in March, is estimated at some 1 million tonnes, lower than the previous year’s harvest due to unfavourable weather during sowing time. Assuming normal growing conditions for the Yala crop to be harvested later in the year, aggregate paddy output in 2002 is forecast slightly above last year’s crop of 2.7 million tonnes. Some 0.9 million tonnes of wheat are imported annually to meet the demand for bread and other wheat products.
Of the about 1.6 million people in the south affected by reduced paddy output in 2001, 300 000 are presently being assisted by a WFP Emergency Operation consisting of 22 680 tonnes of cereals and other food.
The output of wheat in 2002, now being harvested, is forecast at 4.5 million tonnes, about 5 percent below last year’s bumper crop but 27 percent above the average for the previous five years. The barley harvest is also estimated to be above average at 1.3 million tonnes.
Imports of wheat and rice in 2002/03 (July/June) are forecast at a total of 65 000 tonnes, whilst barley imports are forecast at 100 000 tonnes, nearly double of the previous year’s level.
Locust invasion, recent floods and reported irrigation water shortages have dampened earlier expectations of a recovery in cereal production. The cereal harvest is now estimated at about 293 000 tonnes, which is similar to the drought affected harvest of the preceding year. Domestic cereal utilisation is estimated at about 1 million tonnes, while Tajikistan has an estimated capacity to import some 400 000 tonnes of cereals. The shortfall, more than 300 000 tonnes, need to be covered through food aid. In the past, food aid had not exceeded 160 000 tonnes. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is currently in the country to determine the extent of food shortages, import requirements and the number of affected people.
Planting of the 2002 main season crops and harvesting of the second season paddy crop are underway. Reflecting below normal rains in the first quarter of 2002 production of the second season paddy crop is estimated to decline from last year by some 6 percent to 5.7 million tonnes. Total paddy output in 2001 is estimated at an above-average level of 25.3 million tonnes (16.75 million tonnes in milled rice), including 19.6 million tonnes from the main crop harvested until January 2002. As a result of a slight reduction in the area planted, the 2002 maize crop, now being sown, is forecast to decrease by about 10 percent to 4 million tonnes.
Exports or rice in 2002 are currently forecast at about 8 million tonnes, some 7 percent higher than the record 7.5 million tonnes exported last year.
The intervention price for 5 percent and 25 percent broken grade rice has been set at 4 880 baht (US$ 112.30) per tonne and 4 500 baht (US$ 103.57) per tonne, respectively.
Output of the 2002 wheat crop is provisionally estimated at 18 million tonnes compared to 16 million tonnes in 2001. Good winter rains and snow cover have helped boost yields. Turkish Marketing Board (TMO) did not announce as yet its wheat purchase plan for this year, but it is expected to buy at least as much as last year’s grain purchase of about 2.5 million tonnes.
Wheat imports in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at 1.3 million tonnes compared with 0.4 million tonnes estimated for the previous year. Maize imports are also forecast to increase by nearly 142 000 tonnes to 900 000 tonnes. Exports of wheat in the year ending June 2002 are expected to decline sharply.
Cereal harvesting has begun in some parts of the country and official estimates point to a cereal harvest of about 2 million tonnes in 2002. The average harvest in the past 6 years was estimated at less than 1.2 million tonnes and last year cereal harvest amounted to about 1.8 million tonnes. The estimated cereal harvest for the past two years has been significantly high despite the fact that precipitation has been reported below average. In addition, water levels in the two main rivers, Amu and Murghab, which are the main sources of irrigation for the desert country, flow below average. In 2001 some food shortages were reported in Mary province (bordering the Islamic Republic of Iran and Afghanistan) and Dashagouz (bordering Karakalpakstan region of Uzbekistan).
The cereal harvest this year is estimated at some 3.9 million tonnes, 251 000 tonnes higher than the drought reduced harvest in 2001. Locust invasion that has recently affected neighbouring northern Afghanistan and parts of Tajikistan may affect crops in Uzbekistan. In addition, the forecast harvest may also be threatened by below average precipitation and lower levels of water in the two main rivers, Amu and Syr Darya, which provide more than 90% of irrigation water for Uzbekistan. The worst affected areas for the past two years have been Karakalpakstan and Khorzam autonomous regions, where a large number of people required emergency food assistance.
The area sown to rice is progressively declining as farmers shift land to other crops such as maize and soybeans to increase animal feed supplies. In the southern provinces the area reduction occurred mainly in the Mekong River Delta where some rice land was converted into aquaculture or used for more profitable economic activities.
Harvesting of the winter/spring paddy crop in the Mekong River Delta is due for completion at the end of June. Favourable weather, the use of high-yielding varieties and adequate availability of inputs are expected to result in increased paddy output. This improvement in output in the Mekong River Delta should offset the lower production in the other southern regions where yields were adversely affected by dry weather in April. The winter/spring paddy crop in the northern provinces is reportedly in good condition. The aggregate paddy production in 2002 is forecast at 32.3 million tonnes, slightly above last year’s harvest.
The rice export target for this year is 3.8 million tonnes compared to 3.5 million tonnes exported in 2001. However, in the first quarter of 2002 exports of rice were only about 60 percent of the amount delivered in the same period last year, mainly due to low market supplies. Thus, total rice exports in 2002 are likely to be sharply below the target.
Good Rainfall has generally favoured the main 2002 sorghum and millet crops, for harvest from October. However, heavy rains were reported to have caused some damage in some districts of Hajja, Ta’iz and Ibb. Cereal production in 2001 is estimated at about 700 000 tonnes, about 1 percent above the level of the previous year.
No locusts were reported and no surveys were carried out during May, however, low numbers of locust adults may be present in the interior near Wadi Hadhramaut and Shabwah. Surveys to clarify the situation are highly recommended in these areas.
Imports of cereals in 2002 - mainly wheat - are estimated at about 2.4 million tonnes, an increase of some 8 percent compared with 2001.