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Spotlight / 1998

Rice crisis looms in Asia

Green Revolution technologies are "almost exhausted" of any further productivity gains
By 2025, average rice yields must almost double, using less land, less water, less labour and fewer chemical inputs
Rice is the life-line of Asia. More than 90% of the world's rice total crop - currently some 520 million tonnes - is produced there, providing the region's 3,100 million people more than a third of their total calories. With Asia's population growing by some 56 million a year, domestic demand for rice is expected to top 770 million tonnes by the year 2025.

How that increase will be achieved is the subject of growing concern among rice scientists and policymakers alike. If present trends continue, within 20 years most countries will no longer be self-sufficient in rice and Asia's legendary rice bowl will be filled increasingly by grain imports.

At the latest session of the International Rice Commission, held in Cairo this month, sober rice experts were describing the challenges head as "mind boggling" and even "frightening". To meet rice demand over the next 30 years, the yield ceiling of irrigated rice in Asia will need to increase from its late-1980s level of about 10 tons per ha to around 13 tons/ha, while average yields will need to reach about 6 tons/ha, nearly twice the current level. And this will have to be achieved using less land, less water, less labour and fewer chemical inputs, particularly pesticides.

Lower yields. Green Revolution technologies, which spurred increases in annual rice output of more than 3% - and probably saved millions from the threat of famine - are now considered "almost exhausted" of any further productivity gains. In fact, yearly production increases have slipped to around 1.25% since 1990. Productivity declines are especially noticeable in an increasing number of favourable rice growing areas, probably due to long-term degradation of the paddy resource base. Even experimental plots at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) are giving significantly lower yields today than in the early 1970s.

The size of Asia's rice lands is shrinking, under pressure from industrialization and urbanization. In China, the area under rice fell from 37 million ha in 1976 to 31 million ha in 1996. Further, soil salinization, waterlogging and other degradation associated with intensive rice cropping may lead to a net drop in Asia's total irrigated area. Land suitable for further expansion of rice is also disappearing: water and wind erosion are estimated to affect some 400 million ha of the region's farm land, while another 47 million are subject to chemical and physical degradation. Over the next 25 years, the balance of uncropped land will be halved in South Asia and reduced by one-third in East Asia. The quantity and quality of water available for rice growing is also expected to decline.

Rice farmers face declining profit margins. Since the beginning of the '90s, a stagnant yield frontier and diminishing returns to further intensification have pushed up production costs. Other changes in factor markets - rapid withdrawal of labour from the farming sector, diversion of land for other agricultural and non-agricultural purposes, increased competition for water, and withdrawal of input subsidies - are driving up input prices and will only intensify in the future.
Conflicting evidence on "yield deceleration"

An FAO expert consultation in Bangkok in 1996 found "numerous cases of stagnant or decreasing yields and productivity" in rice.
    In Bangladesh, for instance, trials consisting of three and two rice crops a year with three fertilizer treatments showed yield declines for each treatment over a period of 10 years.
    But some temporary decreases are often confused with yield decline. One case in central China was found to be due to unsuitable varieties and inadequate use of organic matter, while in India causes identified ranged from cyclones to the removal of fertilizer subsidies.
    To better understand the phenomenon, the consultation recommended systematic studies to quantify deceleration, stagnation and decline processes and delineate affected areas as accurately as possible.


Last, but not least, production will also to be affected by the "greying" of Asia's rice farming population. The average age of farmers is increasing in almost every country, in parallel with its rate of industrialization. In Korea, the number of rice farmers fell by two-thirds between 1965 and 1995. Urbanization and industrialization will further reduce the labour force, push up farm wages, increase farm size, and increase pressure for mechanization.

Conclusion: even if the current level of productivity is sustained, it cannot
match the food needs of Asia's expanding population. Some rice scientists say that only aggressive research aimed at breaking through present yield ceilings and establishing a new, stable yield plateau can "help prevent a disaster".

Hybrids and "super rice". The future research scenario will probably focus on hybrid rice and what is known as the New Plant Type (NPT), or "super rice". Hybrid rice is the only genetic yield-enhancing technology to have emerged since the Green Revolution. With yields up to 20% higher than those of conventional HYVs, hybrids have been widely adopted in China, where they now cover more than 50% of the total rice-planted area and account for about two-thirds of national production. However, transferring Chinese hybrid technology to other Asia countries has proven difficult, mainly due to the technical problems and costs involved in producing hybrid seeds. FAO and IRRI have now created a task force to promote development and use of hybrids in 12 other Asian countries. Meanwhile, the basic architecture of "super rice" is virtually complete at IRRI, and the plant promises to increase land productivity significantly. However, further intensive research will be needed to realize NPT's full potential of 15 tons/ha, and improve its disease and insect-pest resistance Biotechnology is also poised to complement and accelerate conventional rice improvement. A number of recent developments - including production of transgenic plants, tagging of genes for resistance to major pests and diseases, and gene transfer to rice from wild and unrelated species - could have immediate and long term positive impacts on current yield ceilings, and help stabilize production.

While efforts are made to raise the yield ceiling, there is an even more pressing need to close the yield gap - the difference between the "best yields" of research stations and those that farmers actually harvest in their fields. The yield gap in Asia now stands at an average 48%, and is much higher in Cambodia and Laos. The synergistic interaction of high-yield varieties and crop management, which helped to more than double rice production in the past, has reached its limit. Needed now are approaches based on new knowledge about soil fertility, water and pest management, intensive cropping systems and new seed. National agricultural research systems could contribute by developing more location-specific technology for crop management, including integrated pest and nutrition management packages.

Finally, to be effective, strategies to increase Asian rice production must be supported by sound government policies and an improved flow of information among rice researchers. Government provides the framework that stimulates investment in research, improves productivity, protects the environment and guarantees food security. The market-oriented rice economy that will emerge under GATT, the declining resource base of rice production and Asia's present currency crisis are elements that must all be carefully balanced to devise a national support policy for rice research and production over the next 30 years. Effective plans will depend heavily on adequate information on genetic resources, land use, water availability and irrigation potential.
  • Find out more about rice production in the web pages of the International Rice Commission
Published September 1998
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