ECE/TIM/DP/9
GENEVA TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS
ETTS V WORKING PAPER
PRICE TRENDS FOR FOREST PRODUCTS,
1964–1991
ETTS V WORKING PAPER
PRICE TRENDS FOR FOREST PRODUCTS,
1964–1991
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ECE/TIM/DP/9 GENEVA TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS ETTS V WORKING PAPER PRICE TRENDS FOR FOREST PRODUCTS, 1964–1991 |
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations
Timber Section
Geneva, Switzerland
UN-ECE/FAO TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS
ETTS V WORKING PAPER
PRICE TRENDS FOR FOREST PRODUCTS,
1964–1991
by Björn Vikinge and Myriam Issartel
UNITED NATIONS
New York and Geneva, 1996
ETTS V WORKING PAPERS
This is one of a series of papers to accompany the fifth study of European timber trends and prospects (ETTS V).The ETTS V Working Papers contain material which is too technical, too detailed or too voluminous for inclusion in the main study, such as results and projections by country or methodological discussion.
ETTS V was prepared in a two stage process:
sector-by-sector analysis, based on the work reported in the Working Papers;
creation of unified scenarios, after a consistency analysis.
It was sometimes necessary to modify the sector-by-sector data in order to get a comprehensive but internally consistent scenario for the forest and forest products sector as a whole.For this reason, although the ETTS V scenarios are based on the analysis in the Working papers, not all the results correspond exactly.Readers are referred to ETTS V itself for an explanation of the methods used.
Although prepared as part of ETTS V, the Working Papers are the responsibility of their authors.
Further information about ETTS V, and other documentation is available on request from the ETTS V coordinator,
| Mr. C. Prins | Telephone: | +41 22 917 2874 |
| Chief, Timber Section | Fax: | +41 22 917 0041 |
| ECE Trade Division | E-mail: | [email protected] |
| Palais des Nations | ||
| CH 1211 GENEVA 10 |
UN-ECE/FAO TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS
The objective of the Discussion Papers is to make available to a wider audience work carried out, usually by national experts, in the course of ECE/FAO activities.They do not represent the final official output of the activity (which is normally issued as a UN-ECE/FAO Timber and Forest Study Paper), but a contribution which because of its subject matter, or quality, or for other reasons, deserves to be disseminated more widely than the restricted official circles from whose work it emerged, or which is not suitable (e.g. because of technical content, narrow focus, specialised audience) for distribution as a Study Paper.
In all cases, the author(s) of the discussion paper are identified, and the paper is their responsibility.The ECE Timber Committee, the FAO European Forestry Commission, the governments of the authors' country and the FAO/ECE secretariat, are in no way responsible for the opinions expressed and the facts presented in the discussion paper.
In the interests of economy, Discussion Papers are issued in the original language only. They are free of charge and available on request from the secretariat while stocks last. They are distributed automatically to nominated forestry libraries and information centres in member countries.Those interested in receiving these Discussion Papers on a continuing basis should contact the secretariat.
Abother objective of the Discussion Papers is to stimulate dialogue and contacts among specialists.Comments or questions should be sent to the secretariat, who will transmit them to the authors.
Preface by the secretariat
One of the main constraints on econometric analysis of forest products consumption and production has been the lack of reliable long time series of comparable data on prices of forest products and roundwood.A necessary first step for the analysis by Brooks, Baudin and Schwarzbauer reported in ECE/TIM/DP/5 was the collection of such series.This work was undertaken by Ms. Myriam Issartel, whose services were made available to ETTS V by the Government of France and the Office National des Forêts (ONF).She collected and checked the series, put them in computer readable form, making adjustments when necessary to create long series.The quality of these series made it possible to carry out the econometric analysis, and in particular to separate the analysis of markets for domestic and imported products, as distinct series are now available for each.
Later, Mr. Björn Vikinge, of the SIMS (Forest Industry Market) group in Sweden, acting as consultant to the secretariat, assisted the secretariat in much of the ETTS V analysis, notably the creation of the base and alternative scenarios.Given the great interest of the series prepared by Ms. Issartel, it was decided to make them available in a standard graphic form, corrected for inflation in order to show the long term trends in real prices of forest products.This work was carried out by Mr. Vikinge.
The series presented here demonstrate the wide differences between products and between countries, as regards both levels and trends of prices.Much remains to be understood about forest products prices, how they are formed and their influence on consumption levels and substitution.It is hoped that this collection will contribute to improving understanding.Many of the series in this working paper are shown on a regular basis in the annual issue of the Timber Bulletin on prices for forest products.
The secretariat takes this opportunity to express its warm thanks to Ms. Issartel and Mr. Vikinge for their valuable contribution, as well as to the government of France for its fundamental contribution to ETTS V.
Price Trends for Forest Products
By
Björn Vikinge
Myriam Issartel
Hyperlinks to non-FAO Internet sites do not imply any official endorsement of or responsibility for the opinions, ideas, data or products presented at these locations, or guarantee the validity of the information provided. The sole purpose of links to non-FAO sites is to indicate further information available on related topics.
Graph 1: Coniferous sawlogs and veneerlogs
Graph 2: Non-coniferous sawlogs and veneerlogs
Graph 5: Non-coniferous sawnwood
Graph 7: Imported pulp and paper
Graph 3: Other non-coniferous sawlogs
Graph 4: Imported non-coniferous sawlogs and veneerlogs
Graph 5: Fir and spruce sawlogs
Graph 7: Imported coniferous sawlogs and veneerlogs
Graph 13: Paper and paperboard
Graph 14: Imported coniferous sawnwood
Graph 3: Non-coniferous sawlogs
Graph 4: Non-coniferous sawlogs
Graph 5: Non-coniferous pulpwood
Graph 6: Non-coniferous pulpwood
Graph 12: Imported coniferous sawnwood
Graph 13: Non-coniferous sawnwood
Graph 14: Non-coniferous sawnwood
Graph 15: Imported non-coniferous sawnwood
Graph 18: Domestic particleboard
Graph 20: Domestic and imported (from Scandinavia) chemical pulp
Graph 21: Paper and paperboard
Graph 22: Paper and paperboard
Graph 23: Paper and paperboard
Graph 2: Non-coniferous sawlogs
Graph 5: Non-coniferous sawnwood
Graph 6: Plywood and veneer sheets
Graph 8: Domestic species - other uses
Graph 9: Wood pulp and paper products
Graph 3: Imported coniferous sawlogs and veneerlogs
Graph 6: Imported non-coniferous sawlogs and veneer logs
Graph 7: Imported pulpwood and particles
Graph 8: Domestic coniferous sawnwood
Graph 11: Imported pulp and paper
Graph 4: Pulp, paper, and paperboard
Graph 5: Imported coniferous sawnwood
The development of prices over time for various forest products is one piece of information which is of interest as it to some extent explains the development of demand and supply of the products themselves.Together with other information:
the development of prices over time may reflect upgrading of the products and the development of the production processes.
price levels of similar forest products in different countries can be studied in order to explain differences in the consumption and production, but also to explain import/export patterns.
comparisons of price levels among various products may reflect consumer and production patterns, for instance that there in general is a more steady demand for high quality products than for low quality products which can be substituted by other materials.
In this work six countries have been studied; Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Great Britain.Myriam Issartel has collected the data.Björn Vikinge has processed the data and made the price trend diagrams.
In the data material the prices are given in national currencies and at nominal prices.In order to compare prices over time, nominal prices have to be deflated.Furthermore in order to make comparisons between similar products in different countries prices have to be converted to a common currency.
In this work prices have been deflated and given at the price level of 1985.Depending on available statistics “producer price index” has been used as a deflator if possible, otherwise “consumer price index” has been used.These deflated prices have then been converted to the dollar value of 1985 by using the average exchange rate between the national currencies and dollar that year.
The German and Spanish statistics contain price indices for several products instead of absolute prices.The trends of these products can be compared with other products price trends, though absolute price levels can not be compared.
Each country has been treated separately.First some general information is given. Thereafter the sources and explanations of the abbrevations used in the diagrams are given for each product.In the diagrams the price trends of similar products have in many cases been grouped together.The titles of the graphs are written with bold text and the texts for the individual product price trends are underlined.