UN-ECE/FAO TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS ETTS V WORKING PAPER THE OUTLOOK FOR THE EUROPEAN FOREST RESOURCES AND ROUNDWOOD SUPPLY

ECE/TIM/DP/4

UN-ECE/FAO TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS
ETTS V WORKING PAPER
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE EUROPEAN
FOREST RESOURCES
AND ROUNDWOOD SUPPLY

TABLE OF CONTENTS

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Timber Section
Geneva, Switzerland

by Heikki Pajuoja

UNITED NATIONS

New York and Geneva, 1995

ETTS V WORKING PAPERS

This is one of a series of papers to accompany the fifth study of European timber trends and prospects (ETTS V). The ETTS V Working Papers contain material which is too technical, too detailed or too voluminous for inclusion in the main study, such as results and projections by country or methodological discussion.

ETTS V was prepared in a two stage process:

sector-by-sector analysis, based on the work reported in the Working Papers;
creation of unified scenarios, after a consistency analysis.

It was sometimes necessary to modify the sector-by-sector data in order to get a comprehensive but internally consistent scenario for the forest and forest products sector as a whole. For this reason, although the ETTS V scenarios are based on the analysis in the Working papers, not all the results correspond exactly. Readers are referred to ETTS V itself for an explanation of the methods used.

Although prepared as part of ETTS V, the Working Papers are the responsibility of their authors.

Further information about ETTS V, and other documentation is available on request from the ETTS V coordinator,

Mr. C. Prins	Telephone:	+41 22 917 2874
Chief, Timber Section	Fax:	+41 22 917 0041
ECE Trade Division	E-mail:	[email protected]
Palais des Nations
CH 1211 GENEVA 10

UN-ECE/FAO TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS

The objective of the Discussion Papers is to make available to a wider audience work carried out, usually by national experts, in the course of ECE/FAO activities. They do not represent the final official output of the activity (which is normally issued as a UN- ECE/FAO Timber and Forest Study Paper), but a contribution which because of its subject matter, or quality, or for other reasons, deserves to be disseminated more widely than the restricted official circles from whose work it emerged, or which is not suitable (e.g. because of technical content, narrow focus, specialised audience) for distribution as a Study Paper.

In all cases, the author(s) of the discussion paper are identified, and the paper is their responsibility. The ECE Timber Committee, the FAO European Forestry Commission, the governments of the authors' country and the FAO/ECE secretariat, are in no way responsible for the opinions expressed and the facts presented in the discussion paper.

In the interests of economy, Discussion Papers are issued in the original language only. They are free of charge and available on request from the secretariat while stocks last. They are distributed automatically to nominated forestry libraries and information centres in member countries. Those interested in receiving these Discussion Papers on a continuing basis should contact the secretariat.

Abother objective of the Discussion Papers is to stimulate dialogue and contacts among specialists. Comments or questions should be sent to the secretariat, who will transmit them to the authors.

Preface by the secretariat

Forecasts for the forest resource and roundwood supply are one of the two fundamental parts of ETTS V (the other is consumption and production projections). National ETTS V correspondents were asked to provide detailed forecasts for the area, growing stock, increment, fellings and removals of their countries at 10 year intervals from 1990 to 2040. These replies were then checked and analysed, and are presented in this Working Paper, in full detail.

This work was carried out by Mr. H. Pajuoja, of the Finnish Forest Research Institute, whose services were made available for the ETTS V work by the Government of Finland. The secretariat takes this opportunity to thank most warmly both Mr. Pajuoja and the Finnish Government for this invaluable contribution to the study.

Hyperlinks to non-FAO Internet sites do not imply any official endorsement of or responsibility for the opinions, ideas, data or products presented at these locations, or guarantee the validity of the information provided. The sole purpose of links to non-FAO sites is to indicate further information available on related topics.

Introduction

The basis and methodology of the scenarios

Country profiles

Scenarios of roundwood supply in Europe

Base scenario