This method is meant primarily for short-term demand forecasts. It uses certain lead indicators which need not necessarily have a causal relationship with fertilizer demand. In the case of fertilizer, a possible lead indicator might be the price of produce in the previous season. The higher the price, the more money in the hands of farmers, thus raising the demand for fertilizer for the following crop. The amount of high yielding seeds sold prior to planting is possibly another indicator. In Argentina, for example, companies handling both fertilizers and seeds are able to estimate fertilizer demand by relating it to the pre-season sales of seeds. Precise information on these indicators is not often available and, if available, the relationship between the indicators and fertilizer consumption is rarely consistent and predictable.
