Some developing countries, dependent on imports and short of foreign exchange, need to seek donor assistance for fertilizer supply. This can involve considerable effort and time. Landlocked countries dependent on a neighbouring country's ports and transportation require longer notice to arrange timely fertilizer supply. In these circumstances, an accurate forecast is of little use if the fertilizer does not become available in time for action. The preparation of the forecast itself requires a certain duration depending on the method chosen. To be useful, sales forecasts must be available well before procurement is to be carried out.
From one country comes an example of an attempt at high forecasting accuracy by collecting indents from individual farmers. The procedure runs as follows:-
| i) send demand estimate formats to company's marketing depots | June |
| ii) farmers or farmer associations inform their requirements for following year to retailers | July |
| iii) retailers convey (ii) to company's marketing depots | August first week |
| iv) company's marketing depots convey (iii) to county depts. of agriculture | August third week |
| v) county depts. of agriculture forward their recommendations to district depts. of agriculture | Sept. first week |
| vi) district depts. of agriculture forward their recommendations to regional depts. of agriculture | Sept. second week |
| vii) regional depts. of agriculture and company's zonal co-ordinators review and compile estimates | Sept. fourth week |
| viii) estimates received from zonal co-ordinators | October first week |
| ix) company furnishes the estimate to the ministry of agriculture | October third week |
The process begins in June and ends in October, whereas procurement decisions have already been taken or should have been taken for timely vessel arrivals for the following year's main season commencing in February. Consequently, the procurement quantity is decided without the demand estimate compiled by this procedure, resulting in either inventory carrying costs or loss of opportunity for increased food production.
A country operating in a competitive market follows a different schedule:-
| i) development and finalisation of key assumptions | July 3 |
| ii) development of guidelines and data and despatch to regions for development of sales forecast. | July 4 |
| iii) development of sales forecast by regions and submission to marketing division | July 21 |
| iv) evaluation of sales forecast | August 1 |
| v) finalisation of sales forecast with sales and regional managers | August 4 |
| vi) review with general manager marketing & finalisation of forecast for January-December | Sept. 10 |
The procedure followed is more practical and pragmatic than the previous example and the timetable leads to the finalisation of a forecast that is reasonably reliable and timely enough to be useful.
The lessons to be drawn from these two examples are that the forecasting method selected, particularly for the short and medium term, should be simple, practical and not time consuming. Aiming at hundred percent accuracy leads to many complications. A good balance between accuracy and timeliness is necessary.
The lead time for procurement and logistic preparations to meet the demand should be carefully assessed and scheduled and the forecasting procedure set in motion sufficiently before the begining of the year to dovetail with the schedule. A typical time schedule for countries substantially or wholly dependent on imports is set out in Annex XVII, from which it is seen that the forecasting procedure should be set in motion about eight months ahead of the beginning of the season.
