There is currently a considerable gulf between the forestry industries of the developed countries, New Zealand and Australia, which have large integrated processing industries, and the other countries of the South Pacific which have, at best, a sawmilling sector and, in a couple of instances, plywood milling. For most of the small countries of Polynesia there is no scope to develop forest products processing industries. There is insufficient resource to justify investment much beyond portable sawmilling.
For the Melanesian countries the issues are more complex. Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Fiji could all potentially support integrated processing industries. Vanuatu, New Caledonia and Western Samoa could develop sawmill and woodchipping industries on varying scales. In Fiji's case it is moving down the path toward a sustainable processing industry. Solomon Islands and Vanuatu appear to be depleting resources through log exporting, while Papua New Guinea is immersed in conflicts from which no clear future path is discernible.
The following sections develop simple "most likely scenarios" as opposed to pure forecasts. Production and trade scenarios for each country are consistent with apparently available resources and thus present an intuitively reasonable outlook. However, no effort is made to build in complex constraints and risk factors. For instance, the potential for the development of command processing (for instance, by a country imposing a log ban) is ignored.
Table 7 shows projections of roundwood removals based on the best available current harvest data, and descriptions in the literature of likely harvest scenarios for countries. Note the base data comprises the 1993 FAO Forest Products yearbook estimate of industrial roundwood production, and the best alternative data source. This is done largely because almost all the FAO data are estimated data, equal to the roundwood total from the last statistical return officially submitted by a country. For many of the Pacific Island countries the base data is from the mid- or even early-1980's.
The dominance of Australia and New Zealand in South Pacific production is evident with rapid growth in the plantation forest harvests from both of these countries overshadowing the changes in other countries. The South Pacific wood harvest in 2010 is likely to be around 50 percent higher than the current harvest, however, the total harvest of Melanesia and Polynesia seems likely to decline. Of the island countries, only Fiji and New Caledonia, both countries with sizeable maturing planted forest resources, are projected to increase production over the period to 2010.
Table 7: Scenarios for Industrial Roundwood Removals (Cubic metres)
Country |
1993 FAO Industrial Roundwood Production11 |
Alternative Estimated Roundwood Production |
Year and Source of Alternative Estimate |
1995 Estimated Roundwood Production |
2000 Estimated Roundwood Production |
2005 Estimated Roundwood Production |
2010 Estimated Roundwood Production |
Australia |
17 633 000 |
17 633 000 |
199312 |
19 000 000 |
24 000 000 |
25 250 000 |
26 500 000 |
New Zealand |
15 898 000 |
15 898 000 |
19933 |
16 400 000 |
20 000 000 |
23 000 000 |
25 400 000 |
Australasia |
33 531 000 |
35 400 000 |
44 000 000 |
48 250 000 |
51 900 000 | ||
Papua New Guinea |
2 655 000F |
3 600 000 |
199513 |
3 600 000 |
3 600 000 |
3 600 000 |
3 600 000 |
Solomon Is. |
330 000F |
413 000 |
199314 |
600 000 |
500 000 |
400 000 |
300 000 |
Fiji |
270 000F |
561 000 |
199515 |
560 000 |
640 000 |
730 000 |
820 000 |
Vanuatu |
39 000F |
44 000 |
199416 |
33 000 |
60 000 |
60 000 |
60 000 |
N. Caledonia |
6 000F |
6000 |
1993 |
8 000 |
15 000 |
25 000 |
35 000 |
Melanesia |
3 300 000F |
4 801 000 |
4 755 000 |
4 685 000 |
4 610 000 | ||
Western Samoa |
61 000F |
30 000 |
1992X |
20 000 |
15 000 |
12 000 |
12 000 |
French Polynesia |
N/A |
N/A |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 | |
Tonga |
5 000F |
~4000 |
1992X |
~6000 |
~6000 |
~6000 |
~6000 |
Kiribati |
N/A |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 | |
Nauru |
N/A |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 | |
Niue |
N/A |
625 |
1992X |
800 |
800 |
800 |
800 |
Cook Islands |
5 000F |
5000 |
5000 |
5000 |
5000 |
5000 | |
Norfolk Island |
N/A |
N/A |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 | |
Pitcairn Island |
N/A |
~0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 | |
|
Tokelau |
N/A |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 | |
Tuvalu |
N/A |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 | |
Wallis and Futuna Islands |
N/A |
N/A |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 | |
Polynesia |
71 000F |
31 800 |
26 800 |
23 800 |
23 800 | ||
SOUTH PACIFIC |
36 902 000 |
40 232 800 |
48 78800 |
52 958 800 |
56 533 800 |
Source: Author (and as footnoted)
McLarin (1995) reviewed, and attempted to reconcile a variety of projections for Australian wood supply and demand. From this report it is evident that the bulk of growth in Australian wood supplies will be in coniferous sawlogs from the plantation estate. Supplies of broadleaf (hardwood) sawlogs and pulplogs and coniferous pulplog supplies are all predicted to remain, at best, static or to decline. The forecast path utilised here is drawn from the Forest Resources Committee (1989) which McLarin considers the most likely harvest path. This path, however, presents a very rapid production expansion over the coming 4 years after which the harvest stabilises for the coming decade. An intuitively more likely scenario may see a more gradual expansion with a slightly higher harvest level in 2010 reflecting an older average harvest age.
Forecasting Papua New Guinean harvests is probably the most difficult for any country in the South Pacific. It is evident that Papua New Guinea has enormous short-term harvest potential, however, its long run sustainable yield is relatively low. The actual Papua New Guinean harvest will be highly dependent on Government policy and commitment to sustainable management objectives. The scenario presented here is for sustainable yield harvesting.
Recent data on logging volumes from the Solomon Islands indicates rapid escalation in harvest. As noted earlier harvests are presently in the region of 800 000 cubic metres per annum. The Solomon Islands National Forest Resource Inventory (1995) estimates an indicative allowable cut of 325 000 cubic metres. The inventory notes, "In the late 1980's the annual cut from the Solomon Islands was generally between 300 000 and 400 000 cubic metres per year. By 1993, the total that was being removed was said to be over one million cubic metres." Tracking other country import data suggests this latter estimate to be exaggerated.
Given the volatility of recent harvest data it is difficult to make any prediction about the future harvest. There seems, however, to be a general consensus in the literature that throughout the 1990's the Solomon Islands has been harvesting above the sustainable yield of its merchantable forests. The figures above suggest the harvest has been at least 30 percent above sustainable yield. Consequently, a slowdown in harvest levels from 2000 onward is predicted though the slowdown is not as severe as predicted by those expecting the resource to be logged out around the turn of the century.
The Fijian Forestry Department Annual Report for 1995 notes industrial timber production in 1995 totalled 562 000 cubic metres of which 130 000 cubic metres was sourced from natural forests, 2 000 cubic metres was hardwood plantation logs, 124 000 cubic metres was softwood plantation logs and 306 000 cubic metres was plantation sourced woodchips. The projections to 2010 assume the natural forest harvest remains constant. The average annual hardwood planting rate 1960-1980 in Fiji was roughly constant at 640 hectares which on a 35 year rotation could be expected to yield perhaps 180 cubic metres per hectare. There will consequently be a considerable acceleration in the current hardwood plantation harvest, probably to around 120 000 cubic metres. The softwood plantations are operating on a 17 year rotation which suggests plantings in the early 1990's (around 2 500 hectares per annum) will come on stream in 2010 with a yield of around 230 cubic metres per hectare (Oliver 1992). Consequently, the Fijian forestry sector should be producing more than 800 000 cubic metres of wood in 2010, with potentially an acceleration in the following decade from the hardwood plantations at least.
The future status of the Vanuatu harvest is very unclear. Vanuatu has operated an intermittent log ban since the mid-1980's and appears generally to have harvested within sustainable yield limits. However, Europa (1995) reports,
"In mid-1993 it was announced that the Government had granted a Malaysian group of companies a licence to log 70,000 m3 of timber annually on Espirito Santo, Erromango and Malekula (compared with previous licences of 5,000 m3 for all holders). An announcement that log exports would be banned from mid-June 1994 and annual allowable cut limited to 25,000 m3 were modified in late-1994 arousing fears that logging would again reach unsustainable levels."
It is unclear how these statistics, and several other numbers, reconcile against the sustainable yield of 51 700 m3 quoted in the Vanuatu National Forest Policy 1995. Consequently the scenario developed here for Vanuatu is highly speculative.
Oliver (1992) notes the potential for the New Caledonian plantation forest resource to eventually supply around 40 percent of its domestic timber needs. With planting commencing in 1965 it is anticipated that by 2010 the resource should largely be achieving this potential.
Western Samoan production is in decline as the remaining natural forest is cut over. The scenario shown here assumes production for domestic purposes only. In 1992 Government restricted the allowable cut from the natural forest to 30 000 m3. However, by 1995 Thaman and Whistler note Western Samoa is producing only 85 percent of its annual domestic demand for sawn timber (13,000 m3) which suggest harvest levels have fallen below the restricted level. Western Samoa's merchantable natural forest and plantation forest have been subject to significant cyclone damage in the 1990's. As a consequence, there is reduced capacity and a large gap in plantation age-class structures. Oliver (1992) reports an average age of only 3 years for Western Samoa's remaining plantations in the wake of Cyclone Val.
The Tongan harvest is almost entirely comprised of coconut. The Tongan report on sawmilling to the 1992 South Pacific Heads of Forestry Meeting noted,
"Domestic production depends more and more on the extensive coconut resource as the indigenous hardwood forests are almost exhausted....Coconut timber makes up more than 80 percent of the total domestic cut of 1,700 m3 per year. This is expected to increase over the coming five years with the establishment of two new proposed coconut portable sawmills."
The Cook Islands continues to have timber production potential and a scenario of continued production at constant levels with a declining natural merchantable forest resource but increasing plantation resources is modelled here. Niue is also shown producing small amounts of timber.
For the smaller Polynesian islands there is some (unmeasured) coconut timber production or potential for production. No attempt is made to estimate the level of this production.
The wood export trade from the South Pacific is heavily dominated by unprocessed commodity exports, most notably logs. New Zealand, the world's fourth largest log exporter in 1994 leads the way, followed by Papua New Guinea, the world's sixth largest log exporter and second largest tropical hardwood log exporter. Log export volumes from the FAO 1994 yearbook and projected scenarios for future exports are shown in Table 8.
Table 8: Log Exports in 1994 and Future Scenario Projections (cubic metres)
Country |
Coniferous log exports |
Tropical Hdwd Log exports |
Other Hdwd Log Exports |
Total Log Exports17 |
Estimated Log Export Scenario 2000 |
Estimated Log Export Scenario 2010 |
Australia |
415 000 |
3 000 |
418 000 |
2 000 000 |
600 000 | |
New Zealand |
4 837 000 |
204 000 |
5 041 000 |
6 000 000 |
8 500 000 | |
Papua New Guinea |
9 000 |
3 066 000 |
3 075 000 |
3 000 000 |
2 800 000 | |
Solomon Isl. |
592 000 |
592 000 |
440 000 |
200 000 | ||
Vanuatu |
4 000F |
4 000 |
30 000 |
25 000 | ||
Cook Islands |
4 000F |
4 000F |
3 000 |
2 000 | ||
Total |
5 265 000 |
3 662 000 |
207 000 |
9 134 000 |
11 473 00 |
12 127 000 |
Source: 1994 FAO Yearbook; 2010 Author.
New Zealand's increased potential for log exports is detailed elsewhere. Rapid growth in Australian log exporting is dependent on the accuracy of the Forest Resources Committee (1989) projections of wood supply for 2000 and beyond. If the wood harvest is to grow as rapidly as the FRC predicted then it is unlikely Australia will develop processing capacity and sawn timber export markets rapidly enough to absorb a substantial harvest increase by 2000. If the FRC prediction used in Table 7 is accurate then the log export projection in Table 8 is likely to be conservative. Australian log exporting is a relatively recent development with the first shipments apparently leaving in 1990. However, in the year to June 1994 log exports totalled more than 400,000 cubic metres. With the largest increase in the Australian harvest expected to be in coniferous sawlogs it seems likely that log exports rather than woodchipping is the likely means of disposing of supplies surplus to capacity. The log export path projected here assumes additional processing capacity comes on stream in the following decade and log exporting is expected to decline from a short-term peak.
Log exports from Papua New Guinea are projected to remain at current levels unless the Government actively intervenes in the market. Despite on-going discussions over the establishment of processing facilities in Papua New Guinea there has been little progress in terms of real action. It is difficult to see Papua New Guinea being a competitive wood processor while it continues to operate as an open market log exporter. As hardwood supplies decline globally already the less competitive processors in countries such as Japan are being squeezed out of the business. Given this situation, while they are presented with a choice, the preference of the foreign logging companies in Papua New Guinea will surely be to export logs. A similar situation applies in the Solomon Islands for which log exports are projected to decline due to supply constraints rather than any development of processing capacity.
Projections for log exporting from Vanuatu are derived from the highly speculative harvest levels presented in Table 7. The development of new processing capacity in Vanuatu, with its smaller resource, seems even less likely than in Papua New Guinea or the Solomon Islands. Vanuatu has, however, shown past willingness to encourage processing by banning log exports and is certainly less dependent on log export revenues than the Solomons.
Log exports from the Cook Islands are forecast to remain at current levels.
Woodchips are a second important low level processed wood commodity export for the South Pacific. Australia is the world's second largest chip exporter and the largest exporter of hardwood chips. New Zealand, Fiji and Papua New Guinea also export woodchips. Table 9 shows current volumes of woodchip exports and a scenario projecting possible future volumes of woodchips.
Table 9: Woodchip Export Volumes (cubic metres)
Country |
Current Volume of Woodchip Exports18 |
Projected Volume of Exports 2000 |
Projected Volume of Exports 2010 |
Australia |
6 917 000 |
7 000 000 |
4 700 000 |
New Zealand |
452 000 |
200 000 |
0 |
Fiji |
251 000 |
300 000 |
475 000 |
Papua New Guinea |
91 000 |
110 000 |
150 000 |
Total |
7 711 000 |
7 570 000 |
5 325 000 |
Source: Author
Table 9 shows substantial declines in woodchip exports from Australia and New Zealand over the coming 15 years. As part of the 1995 Australian Wood and Paper Industry Strategy increased downstream utilisation of woodchips has been targeted.. This scenario assumes the construction of a new BCTMP plant early next century utilising around 2 million cubic metres of chips. The remainder being absorbed by other pulping or fibreboard capacity expansions. New Zealand's woodchips are expected to be absorbed into new fibreboard capacity.
Fiji has potential to establish some form of composite panelboard plant to further process its woodchips. Whether this occurs is a moot point and could divert woodchips shown here into panel products. Papua New Guinea's woodchip exports are shown as increasing on the basis that increased pressures on fibre sources are likely to make it worthwhile collecting logging residues which are currently not utilised.
Sawmilling is by far the dominant form of wood processing in the South Pacific in terms of geographic dispersion. As Table 10 shows, Australia and New Zealand are the dominant producers, but a number of other countries have significant sawmilling industries. Even many of the countries shown as producing no sawn timber have some limited portable sawmilling, often processing coconut.
New Zealand is presently the only major exporter of sawn timber in the South Pacific. However, it is notable that Australia is New Zealand's largest export market. A significant change in sawmilling dynamics in the region will occur of the coming fifteen years as Australia moves towards self-sufficiency in sawn timber production. This will change the South Pacific from a net deficit (300 000 m3) to a net exporting region (1 500 000 m3) for sawn timber. The major burden for finding new markets will fall on New Zealand, although Australia, which is likely to continue to import some timber will also become more active in export markets. Similarly, the changing regional dynamics may require Fiji to enter export markets more aggressively with Fiji certainly anticipating the need to niche market its production in the face of the softwood surplus.
The population growth rate in Melanesia and Polynesia is among the highest in the world. Consequently, even if per capita demand remains constant, a significant increase in the total demand for sawn timber can be expected. While Melanesian countries (with the exception of New Caledonia) are likely to remain largely self-sufficient in their sawn timber needs, Polynesian demand will increase quite markedly, while Polynesian production is likely to decline. There is scope for coconut to provide a substantive supply of sawn timber in Polynesia, however, whether it will be cost effective to do so is a moot point.
While the trade scenarios shown are likely to have a relatively high degree of accuracy it is apparent that production in many countries is poorly documented. With a large number of small-scale sawmillers in many countries using portable mills, or even chainsaws, to produce sawn timber it is difficult to ascertain how high actual sawn timber production, for local consumption, might be.
For example the SINFRA (1995) notes that small scale sawmilling is becoming increasingly important in the Solomons. Much of the milling is done by resource owners using portable sawmills. In 1992 the Forestry Division estimated there were around 1 200 portable sawmills spread throughout the Solomons. Chainsaws are also reasonably prevalent, the SINFRA found an average of two chainsaws per village surveyed. There are mixed views about the impacts of portable sawmilling. On the positive side operations can provide regular employment for owner operators and villagers. They also enable local people to control resource utilisation and return profits locally. On the negative side the quality of timber is poor and the forest resource is consequently being devalued.
Table 10: Scenarios for Market Dynamics - Sawn Timber (Cubic metres)
Country |
Productn 1994 |
Consumptn 1994 |
Imports 1994 |
Exports 1994 |
Productn 2010 |
Consumptn 2010 |
Imports 2010 |
Exports 2010 |
Australia |
3 185 000 |
4 384 000 |
1 243 000 |
44 000 |
5 000 000 |
5 000 000 |
500 000 |
500 000 |
New Zealand |
2 773 000 |
1 840 000 |
53 000 |
986 000 |
4 050 000 |
2 500 000 |
65 000 |
1 615 000 |
Australasia |
5 958 000 |
6 224 000 |
1 296 000 |
1 030 000 |
9 050 000 |
7 500 000 |
565 000 |
2 115 000 |
Papua New Guinea |
117 000F |
106 000 |
0 |
11 000 |
200 000 |
180 000 |
0 |
20 000 |
Solomon Is. |
16 000F |
6 000 |
0 |
10 000 |
40 000 |
28 000 |
0 |
12 000 |
Fiji |
91 000F |
69 000 |
0 |
22 000 |
170 000 |
120 000 |
30 000 |
80 000 |
Vanuatu |
7 000F |
6 000 |
0 |
1 000 |
15 000 |
15 000 |
0 |
0 |
N. Caledonia |
2 000F |
21 000 |
19 000 |
0 |
17 000 |
30 000 |
13 000 |
0 |
Melanesia |
233 000 |
208 000 |
19 000 |
44 000 |
392 000 |
343 000 |
13 000 |
62 000 |
Western Samoa |
21 000F |
26 000 |
5 000 |
0 |
6 000 |
30 000 |
24 000 |
0 |
French Polynesia |
0 |
34 000 |
34 000 |
0 |
0 |
49 000 |
49 000 |
0 |
Tonga |
1 000F |
5 000 |
4 000 |
0 |
2 000 |
5 500 |
3 500 |
0 |
Kiribati |
0 |
1 000 |
1 000 |
0 |
0 |
1 500 |
1 500 |
0 |
Nauru |
0 |
1 000 |
1 000 |
0 |
0 |
1 500 |
1 500 |
0 |
Niue |
200 |
200 |
0 |
0 |
400 |
400 |
0 |
0 |
Cook Islands |
0 |
4 000 |
4 000 |
0 |
1 300 |
5 000 |
3 700 |
0 |
Norfolk Isl. |
0 |
1 000 |
1 000 |
0 |
0 |
1 500 |
1 500 |
0 |
Pitcairn Isl. |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Tokelau |
0 |
200 |
200 |
0 |
0 |
300 |
300 |
0 |
Tuvalu |
0 |
500 |
500 |
0 |
0 |
1 000 |
1 000 |
0 |
Wallis and Futuna Isl. |
0 |
1 000 |
1 000 |
0 |
0 |
1 500 |
1 500 |
0 |
Polynesia |
22 200 |
73 900 |
51 700 |
0 |
9 700 |
97 200 |
87 500 |
0 |
SOUTH PACIFIC |
6 213 200 |
6 505 900 |
1 366 700 |
1 074 000 |
9 451 700 |
7 940 200 |
665 500 |
2 177 000 |
Source: 1994 FAO Yearbook; 2010 Author.
Australia and New Zealand are the only producers of wood pulp in the South Pacific. There is little scope for any other country to undertake wood pulp production in the forecast period. Table 11 shows a likely woodpulp market scenario for Australasia over the coming 15 years.
Table 11: Scenarios for Market Dynamics - Wood pulp (tonnes)
Country |
Productn 1994 |
Consumptn 1994 |
Imports 1994 |
Exports 1994 |
Productn 2010 |
Consumptn 2010 |
Imports 2010 |
Exports 2010 |
Australia |
987 000 |
1 211 000 |
224 000 |
0 |
1 600 000 |
1 800 000 |
200 000 |
0 |
New Zealand |
1 371 000 |
721 000 |
16 000 |
666 000 |
1 550 000 |
1 020 000 |
30 000 |
560 000 |
Australasia |
2 358 000 |
1 932 000 |
240 000 |
666 000 |
3 050 000 |
2 720 000 |
230 000 |
560 000 |
Source: 1994 FAO Yearbook; 2010 Author.
As noted earlier Australia has significant potential to expand pulp production by manufacturing from current woodchip exports. The scenario presented here assumes the construction of at least one world-scale kraft pulp mill during the next 15 years diverting a significant quantity of woodchips (as above). Previous proposals for new pulp mills in New South Wales and Tasmania have not come to fruition due to difficulties in obtaining environmental permits or supply uncertainties. Neck et al (1996) note "...the availability of a large domestic resource may encourage expansion of Australia's pulp and paper industry. However, ...such expansions are uncertain."
New Zealand's modest increases in pulp production and focus are discussed elsewhere.
New Zealand and Australia are also the only producers of paper products. Again, no other South Pacific country is expected to commence paper production. Modest amounts of paper are imported into all the Pacific Islands and values of these imports are documented in the FAO Yearbook. Table 12 shows market dynamics for paper and paperboard in the South Pacific.
Table 12: Scenarios for Market Dynamics - Paper and Paperboard (tonnes)
Country |
Productn 1994 |
Consumptn 1994 |
Imports 1994 |
Exports 1994 |
Productn 2010 |
Consumptn 2010 |
Imports 2010 |
Exports 2010 |
Australia |
2 232 000 |
3 000 000 |
1 043 000 |
275 000 |
2 900 000 |
4 040 000 |
1 415 000 |
275 000 |
New Zealand |
860 000 |
646 000 |
156 000 |
370 000 |
1 070 000 |
980 000 |
190 000 |
280 000 |
Australasia |
3 092 000 |
3 646 000 |
1 199 000 |
645 000 |
3 970 000 |
5 020 000 |
1 605 000 |
555 000 |
Papua NG |
0 |
9 000 |
9 000 |
0 |
0 |
12 000 |
12 000 |
0 |
Fiji |
0 |
17 000 |
17 000 |
0 |
0 |
23 000 |
23 000 |
0 |
N. Caledonia |
0 |
3 000 |
3 000 |
0 |
0 |
4 000 |
4 000 |
0 |
F. Polynesia |
0 |
4 000 |
4 000 |
0 |
0 |
5 000 |
5 000 |
0 |
Others |
0 |
2 000 |
2 000 |
0 |
0 |
3 000 |
3 000 |
0 |
Total |
3 092 000 |
3 681 000 |
1 234 000 |
645 000 |
3 970 000 |
5 067 000 |
1 652 000 |
555 000 |
Source: 1994 FAO Yearbook; 2010 Author.
As shown, Australian production increases in line with the prediction of a new world-scale integrated pulp and paper mill. Consumption demand in Australia and the Island countries is modelled as increasing at 2 percent per annum. This is very conservative compared with the 5.2 percent annual growth estimated by AUSNEWZ for Australia through to 2000 (Papermaker; Jan 1996). Also, by way of comparison, the similarity of population numbers between New Zealand and Papua New Guinea and the disparity in paper consumption between the two countries suggests this consumption growth forecast for the less developed countries may also prove conservative. There is significant potential for consumption growth in the islands. A notable feature of Table 12 is the widening of the South Pacific paper deficit, from 589 000 tonnes in 1994 to a predicted 1 157 000 tonnes in 2010.
Australia and New Zealand are the largest panel products producers in the South Pacific, however, both Fiji and Papua New Guinea also produce veneer and plywood.
Table 13: Scenarios for Asia Pacific Panel Products Production to 2010 (cubic metres)
Country |
Particleb'rd Prodn 1994 |
Fibreboard Prodn 1994 |
Ply/Veneer Prodn 1994 |
Particleb'rdProdn 2010 |
Fibreboard Prodn 2010 |
Ply/Veneer Prodn 2010 |
Australia |
828 000 |
99 000 |
167 000 |
1 200 000 |
300 000 |
200 000 |
New Zealand |
174 000 |
657 000 |
211 000 |
240 000 |
1 650 000 |
400 000 |
Papua NG |
0 |
0 |
46 000 |
0 |
0 |
50 000 |
Fiji |
0 |
0 |
16 000 |
(50 000) |
0 |
20 000 |
Total |
1 002 000 |
756 000 |
440 000 |
1 440 000 |
1 950 000 |
670 000 |
Source: 1994 FAO Yearbook; 2010 Author.
Table 13 shows modest growth in production for all sectors in all countries. Australian particleboard production and New Zealand fibreboard production are predicted to be the largest growth sectors. The potential for Fiji to substitute woodchip exports (as noted above) for a particleboard mill is marked in the table but not included in the total since this scenario is highly speculative. For the same competitiveness and supply reasons (noted earlier) no other new capacity is predicted for the island countries.
Table 14 shows amalgamated production figures for wood panels plus consumption and trade scenarios. Consumption for Australia and the island countries is modelled as increasing by 2 percent per annum.
Table 14: Scenarios for Market Dynamics - Wood-based Panels (cubic metres)
Country |
Productn 1994 |
Consumptn 1994 |
Imports 1994 |
Exports 1994 |
Productn 2010 |
Consumptn 2010 |
Imports 2010 |
Exports 2010 |
Australia |
1 094 000 |
1 192 000 |
197 000 |
99 000 |
1 700 000 |
1 600 000 |
200 000 |
100 000 |
New Zealand |
1 042 000 |
525 000 |
9 000 |
526 000 |
2 290 000 |
594 000 |
22 000 |
1 718 000 |
Australasia |
2 136 000 |
1 717 000 |
206 000 |
627 000 |
3 990 000 |
2 194 000 |
222 000 |
1 818 000 |
Papua NG |
46 000 |
47 000 |
1 000 |
0 |
50 000 |
63 000 |
13 000 |
0 |
Fiji |
16 000 |
12 000 |
2 000 |
6 000 |
(70 000) |
16 000 |
2 000 |
(56 000) |
N. Caledonia |
0 |
2 000 |
2 000 |
0 |
0 |
2 700 |
2 700 |
0 |
F. Polynesia |
0 |
7 000 |
7 000 |
0 |
0 |
9 500 |
9 500 |
0 |
Others |
0 |
4 000 |
4 000 |
0 |
0 |
5 400 |
5 400 |
0 |
Total |
2 198 000 |
1 789 000 |
222 000 |
633 000 |
4 060 000 |
2 290 600 |
252 600 |
1 824 000 |
Source: 1994 FAO Yearbook; 2010 Author.
A range of other forestry products particularly carved wooden souvenirs and furniture are produced for sale throughout the South Pacific. In some of the island countries, for example, Fiji, New Caledonia and the Cook Islands, production of wooden handicrafts as a contribution to the tourist industry provides a valuable source of employment and revenue.
Australia and New Zealand produce a range of manufactured and remanufactured items including furniture and furniture components, manufactures of paper and paperboard, mouldings, prefabricated housing components and other wooden manufactures. The Melanesian countries all produce furniture and household effects, generally for their domestic markets.
These seem likely to be ongoing trends for each of these countries.
11 Source: FAO Forest Products Yearbook 1993
13 Source: PNG Country Statement 1995/World Bank 1990
14 Source FAO Forest Products Yearbook - Direction of Trade IND ROUNDWD (NC) TROP - Solomon Islands = 351,000 m3 + Average Observed Domestic Consumption 1982-1990 = 62,000 m3.
15 Fiji Forestry Department Annual Report 1995
16 Source 1996 Vanuatua Report to Heads of Forestry meeting
