Introduction

According to UN projections, by 2030, 4.9 billion people (or sixty per cent of the world’s population) are expected to live in urban areas. Most of the population increase will be absorbed by the urban areas of the less developed regions, thus adding hundreds of thousands of inhabitants annually to their already crowded cities (see Figure I.1, Table I.1 and I.2).

Concurrently, urban growth is being accompanied by growth in the absolute numbers of people living close to or below poverty levels with some cities already facing poverty rates of fifty per cent or more (see Table I.3). How can this growing urban population, and particularly the poor families, be adequately fed?

Figure I.1 Percentage Population Living in Urban Areas in Africa,Asia and Latin America (1950,1975,1995 and 2030)

Source: World Urbanization Prospects: the 1996 Revision, U. N.

Country	City	Increase (%)
		2010	2020
Bangladesh	Dacca	57	145
Benin	Urban pop.	54	136
Botswana	Urban pop.	51	129
Burkina Faso	Urban pop.	59	153
Burundi	Urban pop.	77	212
Cambodia	Urban pop.	55	139
Cameroon	Yaounde	53	135
Chad	Urban pop.	53	135
Congo Dem. Rep.	Kinshasa	55	141
Côte d’Ivoire	Abidjan	53	134
Eritrea	Urban pop.	59	153
Ethiopia	Addis Ababa	64	168
Gambia	Urban pop.	49	121
Ghana	Accra	51	127
Guatemala	Guatemala City	46	112
Guinea	Conakry	60	155
Haiti	Port au Prince	45	110
Kenya	Nairobi	60	155
Laos	Urban pop.	55	140
Lesotho	Urban pop.	56	144
Liberia	Urban pop.	48	120
Madagascar	Urban pop.	59	152
Malawi	Urban pop.	67	180
Mali	Urban pop.	58	149
Mozambique	Maputo	55	142
Namibia	Urban pop.	45	110
Nepal	Urban pop.	61	158
Niger	Urban pop.	70	190
Nigeria	Lagos	54	138
Pakistan	Lahore	47	116
Rwanda	Urban pop.	70	187
Sierra Leone	Urban pop.	44	107
Somalia	Mogadishu	58	151
Sudan	Khartoum	56	143
Swaziland	Urban pop.	46	114
Tanzania	Dar es Salaam	55	140
Togo	Urban pop.	54	138
Uganda	Kampala	65	173
Zambia	Lusaka	49	122

Source: Habitat (1998) data, elaborated by the authors.

1. demand for land for housing, industry and infrastructure competes with agricultural production within and around cities. Suitable productive lands are thus likely to be lost;

2. increasing quantities of food must be brought into cities and distributed within the expanding urban areas (see Table I.4). It means that an increasing number of foodloaded trucks will come into cities, thus contributing to traffic congestion and air pollution (see Table I.5). It also means additional stress on existing food distribution infrastructure and facilities, most of which are already inefficient, unhygienic and environmentally unfriendly;

3. consumption habits and food purchasing behaviour are modified (see Table 1.6). Consumers in urban areas, who generally pay up to thirty percent more for their food respect to their rural counterparts, have less time to spend preparing food; therefore the demand for more convenience and processed meals increases, raising further food quality and safety issues (in terms of the utilization of adequate inputs, particularly safe water in food processing). For example, food consumption in Hanoi based on staple food (rice, corn, and tubers), vegetable, beans has shifted to a diet with more meat, fish, eggs, milk, soft drink, canned and processed food. Home-prepared meals have been gradually replaced by restaurant and street food. The increasing demand for high quality cooked food in Hanoi has favoured the growth of "supermarkets" which are still insufficient;

4. low-income urban households are likely to reside farther and farther away from food markets, often in slums which do no get provided with water, roads, electricity, markets, etc. They are less likely to have refrigerators. This means that low-income urban households face additional costs, in time and transport, to access food daily.

Cities need more and more food which has to be produced and/or imported, transported and distributed throughout the urban areas.

Food security depends upon available income, consumers’ food habits and the costs faced by urban consumers in accessing food in hygienic conditions.

Table I.3 Some Cities with Poverty Rates Greater than 50% in the Year 2000

City	Poverty (%)
Chittagong	78
Cochabamba	68
Davao	77
Dhaka	54
El Alto	87
Freetown	80
Guatemala City	80
Hanoi	51
Kampala	77
Khartoum	70
Kigali	50
Kinshasa	70
Ibadan	62
La Paz	62
Lagos	66
Lilongwe	66
Onitsha	87
S. Cruz de la Sierra	67

Source: Habitat (1998) data, elaborated by the authors.

City	2000	2010
Abidjan	1 761	2 718
Belem	769	986
Brazzaville	580	842
Conakry	774	1 249
Ciudad de Guatemala	297	462
Esfahan	1 417	2 247
Hanoi	507	742
Karachi	2 944	4 536
Kinshasa	2 405	3 886
Lima	3 015	3 760
Managua	309	453
Maracaibo	672	874
Nairobi	686	1 140
Port-au-Prince	441	685
Santiago de los Caballeros	366	463
Yaoundé	670	1 040

Source: FAO (2000) data on national food consumption averages, elaborated by the authors.

Meeting a city’s food requirements is a formidable task. Food supply and distribution systems (FSDSs) are complex combinations of activities (production, handling, storage, transport, process, package, wholesale, retail, etc.), performed by dynamic agents, enabling cities to meet their food requirements. Small and large, formal and informal, traditional and modern activities exist side by side in a given FSDS.

The factors likely to improve the efficiency of FSDSs and promote change in commercial operating patterns are food habit changes due to the growth of urban socio-economic groups (middle classes) plus the urbanization of lifestyles. The development of wholesale and retail markets, storage and transport facilities, in line with the demographic, economic and spatial development of the urban areas is another factor. The introduction of more modern marketing techniques including packaging, information technology and management skills is also important but requires significant changes in the traditional practices of all FSD agents. Public interventions such as the removal of subsidies, opening of external markets and deregulation can occasionally give rise to monopolistic andmonopsonic situations. Or they can bring into play a multiplicity of informal food traders. The complexity, heterogeneity and dynamism of FSDSs mean that situations and problems can rapidly emerge or change. There is, therefore, a need for an adequate knowledge of local FSDSs and an in-depth evaluation of present and expected conditions and problems. Otherwise, proposed interventions, whether they are launched by central or local authorities, may turn out to be insufficient or inadequate by the time they are implemented, or simply unsustainable.

Table I.5 Estimated Increase in 2010 in Traffic to Selected Cities because of Food Transport

Cities	10-tonne truck loads
Abidjan	124 600
Bandung	58 200
Belem	29 800
Bombay	313 400
Dakar	36 800
Guatemala City	22 900
Ho Chi Min	83 500
Lima	100 100
Lagos	500 000
Maracaibo	27 600
Managua	19 900
Port-au-Prince	32 300
Santiago de los Caballeros	13 100
Teheran	147 900
Yangon	86 900
Yaoundé	48 500

Source: FAO (2000) data on national food consumption averages, elaborated by the authors. Base year: 2000.

The tools presented in this guide seek to help identify those external and internal factors that influence FSDSs. This analysis makes it easier to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the various FSDS components in relation to their specific functions. The analysis of constraints affecting FSDSs requires an interdisciplinary approach. This is the objective of the "case study" that cities need to undertake drawing upon agricultural economics, development economics, geography, urban planning, agriculture, marketing, law, etc., discussed in Annex 1. Any precise point of view must meet general criteria to formulate a coordinated and coherent framework of knowledge. The problem/approach grid, proposed in this guide, is the tool which connects the various elements of the analysis with the required disciplines.

FSDS case studies cover the following aspects: the urban, socio-economic and institutional context; present-day urban food demand and FSDSs; and the city and its FSDS in the future. Case studies are undertaken in two phases. The aim of phase 1 (pre-case study) is to describe FSDSs to a city in their entirety and to pinpoint the major present and expected problems. This phase includes bibliographic research, collecting and analysing available information, preliminary interviews and observations. Phase 1 may commence by categorizing past and expected urban physical expansion as well as the main food supply areas, food transport flows and urban markets using maps. The process gradually expands to cover institutional responsibilities as well as past, present and planned interventions. Although it may not be possible to cover all the topics, the description and analysis should suffice to show the complexity and interrelationships between the various FSDS elements. Major constraints are identified as well as problems requiring immediate solutions. Problems and constraints will not simply be listed, but will be presented as sets interconnected at critical points. Key areas for further investigation will be identified.

During phase 2 (the case study proper), issues identified in phase 1 for further analysis will be investigated and the required sustainable interventions identified. There will be an analysis of FSDS efficiency and dynamism from a spatial, structural and temporal perspective. Possible interventions will be analysed to select suitable ones. FSD policies, strategies and programmes will then be formulated with clearly defined institutional responsibilities.

Chapter 1 covers the key elements of FSDSs. Chapter 2 covers the case study including the preparation of the terms of reference (TORs), the arrangement of the study into several phases and the internal and external reviews of the results. Chapter 3 deals with the formulation of urban FSD policies, strategies and programmes. Annex 1 discusses some methodological approaches followed in previous case studies. Annex 2 contains general TORs of a case study to be adapted to local conditions. Annex 3 helps identify the necessary human, logistic and financial resources and prepare an activity programme. Annexes 4, 5 and 6 provide details and examples of various technical issues discussed in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 respectively. A bibliography for further reading and related Web sites are listed in Annex 7.

Table I.6 City of Zanzibar: Daily Consumption Projections (tonnes/day)

Year	Fruits and Vegetables	Meat	Poultry	Fish
Pessimistic scenario: annual population growth 3.6%
1995	92.21	1.25	0.53	12.07
2000	110.04	1.49	0.63	14.41
2005	131.33	1.77	0.75	17.20
Optimistic scenario: annual 3.6% population growth plus annual 2% increase in income
1995	99.14	1.51	0.63	12.70
2000	140.50	2.64	1.07	17.16
2005	196.90	4.26	1.69	23.13

Source: UNCDF, Project N° URT/93/C06