The global outlook for future wood supply from forest plantations

Global Forest Products Outlook Study

Working Paper Series

Working Paper No: GFPOS/WP/03

Christopher Brown

Forestry Officer (Plantations)

Forestry Policy and Planning Division, Rome

February 2000

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INFORMATION NOTE ON THE GLOBAL FOREST PRODUCTS OUTLOOK STUDY In considering the role of FAO in the sustainable management of forests and in the follow-up to the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), the 107th session of the FAO Council (1994) agreed that there was a need for FAO to improve the quality of its forest sector information and analysis. In response to this and other similar demands, FAO has increased the prominence of outlook studies in the programme of work of the Forestry Department. A provisional global forest products outlook was produced early in 1997 which concentrated on forecasts of future supply and demand, based on econometric modelling of past trends in forest products markets. This study highlighted the need for more detailed research in two areas: the supply and demand for fuelwood; and the potential for wood supply from non-forest sources (including trees outside the forest and secondary sources). In addition to this, subsequent discussion of the provisional outlook, suggested that greater attention should be given more generally to the supply-side of future outlook studies. The current Global Forest Products Outlook Study is the fifth in the series of FAO's global supply and demand studies which have been produced approximately every five years since 1982. The study attempts to respond to those needs identified above. However, it also attempts to go beyond the scope of previous outlook studies, by presenting much more interpretation of the future supply and demand forecasts from the point of view of forestry policy development and forest management. Thus, it attempts to go beyond answering the simple question of how much wood will be needed in the future, to cover issues such as where will the wood come from, who will produce it and how will it be produced and utilised. This, inevitably, leads to questions about how forestry policies and institutions should be shaped in the future and the study attempts to answer some of these questions. Working papers have been commissioned on a few topics which have been considered as most important for the future wood product market outlook, including: likely future changes in the nature and type of wood and fibre supplies; trends in processing; and the future outlook for fuelwood supply and demand. Working papers are being produced and issued as they arrive. Some effort at uniformity of presentation is being attempted but the contents are only minimally edited for style or clarity. FAO welcomes from readers any information which they feel would be useful to the study on the subject of any of the working papers or on any other subject that has importance for the forest products outlook. Such material can be mailed to the contacts given below from whom further copies of these working papers, as well as more information on the Global Forest Products Outlook Study can be obtained:
Mr. R Michael Martin Chief Planning and Statistics Branch Policy and Planning Division Forestry Department Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Viale delle Terme di Caracalla Rome, 00100, ITALY Tel: (39-06) 5705 3302 Fax: (39-06) 5705 5137 Email: michael.martin@fao.org	Mr Adrian Whiteman Forestry Officer (Sector Studies) Planning and Statistics Branch Policy and Planning Division Forestry Department Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Viale delle Terme di Caracalla Rome, 00100, ITALY Tel: (39-06) 5705 5055 Fax: (39-06) 5705 5137 Email: adrian.whiteman@fao.org

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director, Information Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy.

© FAO 2000

Table of Contents

FOREWORD

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Data sources and data collection

1.2 Objectives of the study

1.3 Structure of this report

2 FOREST PLANTATION TRENDS AND CURRENT STATUS

2.1 Terms and definitions

2.2 Forest plantation area in 1995

2.3 Principle species used in forest plantations

2.4 Trends in the area of forest plantations

2.5 The age-class structure of forest plantations at the global level

2.6 More detailed information about forest plantations by region

2.7 Forest plantation yields and rotation lengths

2.8 Estimated current production potential from forest plantations

3 ECONOMIC AND POLICY ISSUES IN FOREST PLANTATION DEVELOPMENT

3.1 Why plant trees?

3.2 The underlying factors that determine a country's advantage in forest plantation development

3.3 Rates of return and profitability

3.4 Major factors affecting forest plantation costs and revenues

3.5 Risk, viability and liquidity issues

3.6 National policy issues

3.7 International policy issues

4 THE OUTLOOK FOR WOOD SUPPLY FROM FOREST PLANTATIONS

4.1 Alternative scenarios for forest plantation development

4.2 Scenario 1: zero increase in forest plantation area (no growth scenario)

4.3 Scenario 2: one percent new planting per year (medium growth scenario)

4.4 Scenario 3: gradual decline from current new planting rates (high growth scenario)

4.5 Appraising the scenarios

4.6 Possible futures outside the modelled scenarios

4.7 Conclusions about future potential wood supply from forest plantations

5 REFERENCES

5.1 General references

5.2 Country and regional references and data sources

 

Appendix 1: Estimation of Age-Class Structures

Appendix 2: Projection of potential roundwood production

Appendix 3: Estimated industrial forest plantation age-class structure by country and region

Appendix 4: Estimated non-industrial forest plantation age-class structure by country and region

Appendix 5: Projected potential roundwood production from forest plantations (1995 - 2050) by country and region under Scenario 1

Appendix 6: Projected potential roundwood production from forest plantations (1995 - 2050) by country and region under Scenario 2

Appendix 7: Projected potential roundwood production from forest plantations (1995 - 2050) by country and region under Scenario 3