INTRODUCTION

1. The Committee has traditionally reviewed developments in the world commodity situation and short-term outlook and follow-up action to Conference Resolution 2/79 on Commodity Trade, Protectionism and Agricultural Adjustment together based on the same document. The current document contains brief overviews of global economic conditions and developments in international commodity markets, while policy changes as follow-up action to Resolution 2/79 are described in document CCP 01/08.

2. More recent information on commodity market developments will be presented during the session, along with a demonstration of a new way of monitoring and presenting commodity market developments on FAO's web page.

DEVELOPMENTS IN AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND
GLOBAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS

3. The value of trade in the principal primary agricultural commodities¹ fell sharply in 1999 for the second year in a row, dropping by 6 percent to $203.7 billion due to low commodity prices and flat trade volumes (Table 1). Preliminary estimates for 2000 indicate a substantial slowdown in the decline, largely due to a notable increase in growth in the global economy that stimulated demand for some commodities. Despite this, however, international prices of many agricultural commodities remained near or below the depressed levels of 1999 (Annex Table 1), conferring substantial benefits to consumers, especially in importing countries, but causing economic difficulties for farmers in the producing countries.

4. The global economic situation strengthened substantially in 2000, with real GDP growth estimated at 4.7 percent for the year - much higher than the comparative figures of 3.4 percent for 1999 and 2.6 percent for 1998 (Annex Table 2). The outlook is for continued economic expansion through 2001, with GDP growth currently forecast at 4.2 percent. This robust global performance reflects the continuation of strong growth in North America and an acceleration of growth in Japan, Europe and a broad range of developing countries. Perhaps most striking has been the resumption of growth in the ASEAN-4 economies,² Russia and Brazil following the deep recession of 1998.³ Inflation has remained subdued in most regions despite sustained growth in demand and production.

5. For the developing countries as a group, the pace of economic expansion increased from 3.5 percent in 1998 to 3.8 percent in 1999. International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates for 2000 indicate a brisk acceleration to 5.6 percent and the forecast for 2001 is for continued robust performance at 5.7 percent. The expansion of economic output in 2000 was quite broad-based, with all developing regions posting growth rates of 3.4 percent or higher, and the outlook for 2001 is equally broad-based, with the pace of economic output forecast to exceed 4 percent for all regions.

6. A factor which, however, could somewhat temper the favourable economic outlook is uncertainty regarding future oil prices. The price of oil tripled from the historically low levels of less than $12 a barrel in the first quarter of 1999 to around $35 a barrel in September 2000 before dropping back to about $25 by the end of the year. While this is welcome relief for the oil exporting countries, it has the potential to dampen global economic prospects and poses particular difficulties for low-income oil-importing countries. Recent forecasts from the World Bank suggest that oil prices will probably remain near $25 a barrel through 2001, although prices are likely to fall somewhat in the longer term as new supplies increase in response to current high prices.⁴ The IMF estimates that a sustained $5 a barrel increase in oil prices⁵ would reduce economic output in the major industrialised countries by about 0.2 percent and in developing countries by about 0.4 percent compared with their baseline forecasts.

7. Among developing regions, Asia would be most adversely affected by higher oil prices due to its heavy dependence on fuel imports, while Africa and Latin America would experience little net impact because those regions include a mix of oil exporters and importers whose gains and losses would be offsetting. The IMF estimates that more than 50 individual developing and transition economies would be seriously affected by higher oil prices.⁶ Many of these countries face additional difficulties because the prices of many of their main exports - primary agricultural commodities - remain weak. The IMF has identified some 30 countries that have suffered cumulative terms of trade losses of more than 10 percent since 1995-97, and in 10 of these countries the terms of trade losses exceed 20 percent. Thus, whereas the impacts of higher oil prices and low agricultural commodity prices are relatively small at the global level, they could have serious consequences for particular countries, some of them among the world's poorest.

FOOD IMPORT BILLS OF DEVELOPING AND LOW-INCOME
FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES

8. In general, the relatively low or declining prices of agricultural commodities are reflected in reductions in the value of the food imports of developing and low-income food deficit countries in US dollar terms (Table 2), a trend that had started after a peak was reached in 1996. While indicating an improved status of food security at the national level for these groups of countries in general, there are still many countries and many vulnerable groups within countries that continue to face severe food security problems. It is clear that the value of imports for meat and dairy products have not always moved in the same direction as those of cereals and oils/oilseeds, mainly because of the differences in the movements of their respective prices (see also Annex Table 1).

9. It should be noted that the real domestic cost of food imports to consumers depends inter alia also on exchange rate movements and domestic inflation. In an attempt to take into account the effects of such changes on the food import bill of developing countries, the nominal US Dollar values of the total value of their food imports were adjusted by using composite indices representing the average percentage changes in the exchange rates and domestic consumer prices of 80 developing countries for which such data were available⁷.

10. These rough estimates are juxtaposed against food import bill of all developing countries in nominal and 1998 US Dollar prices and presented in Chart 1. Regardless of how the value of food imports is measured, it is clear that up to 1995 the rates of increase in the costs were comparable⁸. However, since 1995 the series have diverged substantially. Apart from a slight dip in 1996, because of the steep peak in the prices of most basic food commodities, the growth in the value of imports measured in constant (1998) US dollars has been maintained more or less at the same rate throughout the 1990s. On the other hand, the rate of change of the series adjusted for average exchange rate and domestic consumer price changes diverged rapidly from the others from 1995 onwards, mainly reflecting the impact of the appreciating value of the US Dollar against the currencies of many developing countries⁹. Although, unit costs of all imports would have been similarly affected by the depreciation, the fact that the volume of food imports continued to increase during the same period is indicative of the importance that these countries attach to ensuring national food security¹⁰.

COMMODITY MARKETS IN SUMMARY

11. Prices of many agricultural commodities declined further or remained depressed in 2000 despite the economic recovery underway. Favourable weather conditions and rigidities in rapid adjustments in production to the slump in demand in 1998 and early 1999 appear to have been important factors underpinning this. For perennial commodities like coffee and cocoa and other commodities that carry high fixed costs like cotton and sugar, downward adjustments to output occur slowly. The resulting increases in carryover stocks in some cases, as well as changing patterns of stock holding put some further downward pressure on prices, dimming prospects for a significant and broad based price rebound during most of 2000 and early 2001.

12. Among the basic foodstuffs, international grain prices (i.e. wheat and coarse grains) rose slightly since the beginning of the season in July 2000, mostly reflecting stronger import demand amid indications of lower production and prospects for a large draw-down of stocks, including among the five major exporters. The new crops from Australia and Argentina that will enter the market will influence the direction for wheat prices in the coming months. While it is too early to provide indications regarding the 2001 wheat crop, any decline in world production could result in much higher, and more volatile prices because of the relatively low level of stocks. As for the likely direction for the major coarse grains prices, a record crop in the United States in 2001, the world's largest producer and exporter of maize, and abundant supplies of the competing feed quality wheat in international markets, could mitigate the impact of the expected surge in world demand.

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13. Despite a contraction in paddy production in 2000, international prices of rice continued to trend downward during most of the year, reaching their lowest level in the decade. The slide in prices was a reflection of continued large supplies in the market notwithstanding the drop in output, due to reductions in rice stocks following policy changes in some countries. As a result, a small increase in average per caput rice availability was achieved compared with 1999. Although the outlook for production in 2001 is still subject to considerable uncertainty, low prices in the 1999 and 2000 seasons may discourage plantings in a number of producing countries, with negative consequences on output. With lower stocks, such a situation could halt the downward slide in rice prices.

14. International cassava prices continued to fall during most of 2000, since abundant export supplies coincided with weak global import demand. World cassava output in 2000 is estimated to have grown by only 2 percent to 175 million tonnes in fresh root equivalent. The expansion took place mainly in Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. World trade in cassava products (in dry weight) in 2000 is estimated to have fallen slightly, mainly reflecting weak import demand by the EC. The downward trend in global trade is expected to continue in the short run. Measures expected to be taken by several EC member countries in their fight against the BSE disease might have unexpected effects on cassava demand and, thus, trade.

15. World meat prices, as measured by the FAO meat price index covering all meat categories, increased since the beginning of 1999, reflecting a tightening of supplies, led in part by an 8-percent jump in global meat trade in 1999, which was in turn induced by economic recovery in Asia. However, increases in both prices and trade volumes are likely to be tempered in 2000. World total meat trade is currently estimated at 16.5 million tonnes, up by only 1 percent, with poultry meat accounting for most of that increase. Animal disease and food safety issues were minimal in the first half of 2000, with few exceptions. However, disease outbreaks and food safety concerns in the second part of the year have added considerable uncertainty to the 2000 market outlook. Overall, developing countries are set to capture all the growth in meat exports in 2000 because of reduced output in most developed countries.

16. Since the middle of 2000 the international prices of dairy products in general have been on the rise, reflecting stronger demand in importing countries and limited supplies in some exporting countries. However, output in New Zealand and Australia, important exporting countries, increased, mainly because of the favourable price effect of the depreciation of their national currencies against the US dollar. Nevertheless, the increase, almost all of which was exported , was not sufficient to temper the rise in the international prices.

17. After the general downward trend that started at the beginning of 1998, prices for oilseeds and their products moved in opposite directions during the 1999/00 season. International prices for oilseeds and oilmeals started to recover towards the beginning of the season, while prices for oils and fats continued to decline, reaching their lowest level since 1987/88. The sustained decline in prices for oils and fats in the current season was caused by record global oil supplies and high stock-to-utilisation ratios. On the other hand, after declining significantly over the last two seasons, international prices for oilcakes and meals started to recover during 1999/00 as the expansion in global supplies of oilmeals came to a halt. Total oilseed output is anticipated to rise further in 2000/01, primarily on account of increased soybean production in the United States and China as well as the prospect of sustained production in Argentina and Brazil. Globally, however, after taking into account carry-in stocks, no significant expansion in overall supplies of oilseeds and derived products is expected for 2000/01, and current prospects suggest that global demand for oilseed products, in particular oils and fats, may exceed supplies in the next season. With regard to oils and fats, both global stocks and the stocks-to-utilisation ratio are anticipated to fall, which, eventually, should lead to a recovery in prices for these products. Developments on the oilmeal markets are more difficult to predict as prospects for import demand and exportable supplies are still uncertain.

18. Among horticultural crops, world citrus production increased markedly in 1999, as output recovered from its low levels of the previous season in many producing countries, and in particular the United States, most Mediterranean countries and China. As a result, global exports of fresh citrus rose, notably in the two largest supplying areas- the Mediterranean rim and the United States. There were some exceptions to this upward trend of exports, in particular in South Africa, Israel and Mexico. Wholesale prices for fresh oranges decreased in major markets from the relatively high levels of the previous season. The fall was particularly sharp in the United States and Japan, where prices had been higher than average due to reduced production in California in the previous season, the traditional supply area of these markets.

19. Prices for frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) were relatively stable at about US$1 400 per tonne (CIF, Rotterdam) during the first four months of 2000. However, prices gradually fell from late April onwards, reaching a level of slightly over US$900 at the end the year. On the New York futures market, FCOJ prices declined from US$2 094 per tonne in December 1999 and traded in the band of US$1 760 to 1 980 during the first semester of 2000. This relatively low level was due to the persistence of large juice inventories in Brazil and the United States, as well as higher output and processing of oranges in Florida. Futures prices dropped further during the second semester, ranging between US$ 1 540 and 1 760. Conversely, prices for concentrated grapefruit and lemon juices were high throughout the year due to low supply.

20. Banana prices in major markets recovered in the first quarter of 2000 from the record low levels of late 1999. This rise was partly due to lower production in several Latin American countries affected by adverse weather conditions and to higher demand in several markets, notably Japan and Central and Eastern Europe. However, prices started to decline in May as production gradually recovered in countries that had been affected by hurricane Mitch (e.g. Honduras) and demand was curtailed in Northern Hemisphere countries by competition from the domestic summer fruit harvests. Over the whole year, global banana exports were on the rise, led in particular by increases in Ecuador and the Philippines. In the EC, despite higher banana prices in local currencies as a result of the marked decline of the Euro, prices in dollars fell. Consequently, many supplying countries in Latin America reported a substantial drop in their banana export earnings.

21. Cocoa prices continued their downward trend in 1999 and by February 2000 had fallen to the 30-year-low of US$860 per tonne. Prices stayed low during the 1999/20 cocoa year (October-September) and averaged about US$920 per tonne. This seasonal average was only 55 percent of that of the previous cocoa year. The fall in prices reflected an estimated 8 percent increase in world cocoa production for the crop year 1999/00 to a little over 3 million tonnes. This was against a rather slower rate of growth in world grindings which are expected to increase by 6 percent in 1999/00 to 2.9 million tonnes. Stocks, which were already high, would therefore increase further by 5 percent to about 1.3 million tonnes, and would continue to depress prices.

22. For coffee, the declining price trend in 1999 continued in 2000, reflecting ample supplies in the global market. The average ICO composite price continued to fall during the first eleven months of 2000 from US$ 1 812 per tonne in January to around US$ 1 151 per tonne in November. Provisional data for 1999/00 indicate that world coffee production was slightly up on 1998/99 levels at nearly 6.5 million tonnes. Consumption was estimated at 6.2 million tonnes, 1.2 percent higher than in 1998/99, but stocks in consuming countries continued to increase.

23. World tea production fell by 4 per cent in 1999 to 2.9 million tonnes. However, sluggish demand in several major importing countries meant that prices remained depressed in the first half of the year. The re-entry of Russia and Near-Eastern countries into the market strengthened prices in the second half of the year. This trend continued into 2000. Prices improved further during the second half of the year as output in Kenya decreased. The Mombasa price averaged US$ 2 210 per tonne by September. FAO Composite Prices averaged 1 842 US dollars per tonne in 2000, 5.5 percent higher than in the previous year.

24. World sugar prices reached the lowest level for 14 years in February 2000, when the ISA daily price fell to US$ 104 per tonne. Ample supplies in the world sugar market due to consecutive bumper crops of 134 million tonnes globally, in both 1998/99 and 1999/00, kept prices weak. Prices have since recovered as prospects of a significantly reduced harvest for 2000/01 became apparent. World sugar production in 2000/01 is expected to decline by 6 million tonnes to 128 million tonnes, in line with the expected consumption level.

25. Production estimates for 2000 indicate that world tropical fruit output could reach 60.4 million tonnes, a 3 percent increase over 1999 levels. Production of mangoes, which account for around 40 percent of the world's tropical fruit production, is expected to increase by 6 percent. International trade continues to be dominated by pineapples, mangoes and avocados, and exports of these fruits continued to increase. However, the market shares of lesser fruits such as lychees and mangosteen have increased in recent years. Europe remains the major destination market, accounting for more than 40 percent of imports in 1999.

26. With regard to raw materials, there was a sharp turn around in prices of African sisal during 2000 from the depressed levels reached in late 1999 following a depletion of stocks, particularly in Kenya where production failed due to a severe drought. Export prices of East African UG grade (c.i.f. European ports) reached US$ 650 per tonne by September 2000, but this was still below the 1999 annual average of US$ 688 in 1999. Prices of Brazilian sisal however remained static at around US $430 per ton. Demand for sisal products continued strong as prices of competing petroleum-based synthetic products increased. The recovery in prices of abaca was not maintained beyond the third quarter of 1999, when ample supplies reversed the trend. Likewise, prices of coir fibre fell sharply in 2000 from their levels in 1999.

27. Although export prices of raw jute recovered considerably during the crop year 1999/00 (July-June), they fell sharply in the early months of the 2000/01 season due to an abundance of supplies. This reflected continued weakening in demand for traditional jute products in spite of increases in the prices of synthetic products. While prices of BWD grade from Bangladesh ports fell to US$ 255 per tonne in September 2000 from a seasonal average of US$ 296 in 1999/2000, carryover stocks of raw jute in the major producing countries remained at historically high levels of about 50 percent of annual global mill consumption requirements.

28. Prices for bovine hides and sheepskins increased in the first nine months of 2000. Demand for leather and leather products was strong, while supplies in the raw hides and skins markets were limited as a result of reduced global slaughtering, the introduction of an export tax for wet blue leather in Brazil and an increased export tax of about 15 percent on raw hides from Russia. Tanning activities increased in the major Asian producing countries, particularly in China and the Republic of Korea, as a result of the improvement in the Asian economic situation. However the strengthening of the US dollar continued to affect the capacity of tanners in many countries to purchase raw material for processing.

29. Natural rubber prices continued to fluctuate at reduced levels during the first six months 2000. The International Natural Rubber Organisation's Daily Market Indicator Price (INRO DMIP), an indicator of international prices, was Malaysia/Singapore cents 108.7 per pound in June, about 30 per cent lower than in the same period in 1999, although demand for natural rubber continued to increase, especially when the crude oil price spiked during the year. The stocks built up over the past few years and weak local currencies against the US dollar may be partly responsible for the current relatively low price levels.

30. During 2000, world cotton prices recovered from their five year low reached in 1999. The Cotlook `A' Index, an indicator of international prices, reached US $ 1 345 per tonne in September which was nearly 20 percent higher than the level one year earlier. Stocks had reached nearly half of annual consumption but began to fall in 1999, and fell even more rapidly during 2000. World cotton production is estimated at 19 million tons in 2000/01, about 100 000 tons higher than the previous season. However, consumption also increased during 2000. If high oil prices are sustained, this could drive up prices of man-made fibres, and demand for cotton might exceed 20 million tons in 2000/01, thereby inducing further increases in price.

CONCLUSIONS

31. The strong economic growth experienced in most countries in 2000, has not uniformly had the same impact on the prices of all agricultural commodities given the specific factors underpinning developments in individual markets. However, the growth in income appears to have been instrumental in reversing the downward trend in prices for livestock products, since their demand tends to be relatively more income elastic when compared to other food commodities. Already there are signs that the oil meals sector has responded somewhat to this development and the feed grains sector may follow suit during the first part of 2001 if economic growth is maintained. Markets for most raw materials are expected to benefit in 2001 from underlying strength in demand as a result of higher prices for competing synthetic products. For a number of tropical products, on the contrary, prices could remain relatively weak during the first part of 2001 as a result of ample supplies.

32. With regard to food import bills of developing countries, if depreciation of their currencies against the US dollar continues the rising domestic costs of imported food commodities, along with higher prices, may dampen the growth of import demand. For agricultural commodities exported by the developing countries, on the other hand, the depreciation of their currencies against the US dollar could act to encourage production and exports of the commodities concerned, thus contributing to the expansion of their foreign exchange earnings. The extent to which this will occur, however, depends on overriding market conditions, as indicated above.

33. While economic indicators point to continued strong economic growth in 2001, expansion could be tempered by high petroleum prices. Although there was some decline in oil prices in late 2000, underlying market conditions suggest that average prices of oil could remain higher than before the recent price peak. The persistence of higher oil prices would have significant effects on all aspects of commodity markets and trade, since petroleum influences the cost of production and distribution, through affecting the prices of fertilisers, transport and eventually of many other agricultural inputs. In some instances, the effects have been positive, at least in the short run, for example for most natural fibres.

34. The Committee may wish to consider reaffirming its support to the Secretariat's continuing efforts to innovate in monitoring, analysing and presenting agricultural commodity policy and market developments within the context of the Plan of Action of the World Food Summit, especially at a time when prominent international and private organisations are discontinuing their activities in the field.

1 In order to improve the timeliness of market assessments, the Commodities and Trade Division has made a special effort to develop a methodology to quantify and report the current values of major agricultural exports and food import bills as shown in Tables 1 and 2. The value of commodity export earnings reported here for 2000 are preliminary FAO estimates based on data available at the end of October 2000 and cover the principal primary commodities listed in Table 1, which account for between 50 and 60 percent of the value of total trade in agricultural products, excluding forestry and fisheries.

2 ASEAN-4 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. All regional and economic groupings in this section are as defined by the International Monetary Fund.

3 All macroeconomic estimates are derived from the IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2000.

4 The Impact of Oil Prices on Developing Countries - 2000 and 2001," PREM Economic Policy and DEC Prospects Group, World Bank, 21 September 2000.

5 Compared with the assumed prices used in the IMF forecasts: $26.53 in 2000 and $23.00 in 2001.

6 These countries would experience a deterioration in their trade balance of more than 0.5 percent of GDP.

7 The data are obtained from IMF statistical databases and 1998 was taken as the base period for both of the indices. A better measure would have been to adjust the import bill of each country separately to take into account the changes in their dollar exchange rates and domestic inflation rates, then calculate an average of the resulting percentage changes across all the countries and use the resulting index to make the adjustment to the aggregate import bill. However, lack of data for all countries precluded such an approach.

8 The apparent difference between the series is an artifact due to the choice of selecting 1998 as the base year of the indices used to capture foreign exchange movements and domestic inflation.

9 In fact, only 8 countries had their currencies appreciate against the US dollar since 1996 (on average by less than 8 percent per annum). The remaining 72 countries experienced depreciation of their currencies against the US dollar: the annual average depreciation was between 0 and 5 percent for 28 countries, between 5 and 10 percent for a further 23 countries, and of the remaining 21 countries 10 had an average depreciation greater than 25 percent per annum.

10 It should be noted that a currency depreciation will also tend to "inflate" developing countries' export earnings in local currency terms if their exports are priced in foreign currency (e.g. US dollars). For individual countries, however, currency depreciation can result in terms of trade losses depending on the product mix of their exports and imports.

Annex Table 1.
Representative export prices and year to year changes

Annex Table 2.
World economic outlook: global and per caput real GDP growth rates