The major challenges facing the agricultural sector of most CAEU countries are summarized as follows:
(a) Reduced availability of fresh water for irrigation due to limited rainfall and competition from other users. Scarce irrigation water will continue to be treated as a "free good" by farmers, and therefore not used efficiently as long as they do not at least bear the cost of delivery from the irrigation system;
(b) Ecological threats to food production resulting from the loss of forest trees, soil erosion, salinity and overgrazing of rangelands and the loss of agricultural land to urbanization. In some irrigated areas the excessive use of fertilizers and insecticides is also considered to be a threat to soil and water quality;
(c) The policy framework within which the agricultural sector operated until the beginning of the 1990's was heavily influenced by the public sector at all levels.
The constraints in meeting these challenges are many but the following four must be highlighted:
The most important components of the CAEU countries strategies are the provision of basic staples, the efficient use of water for irrigation, the enhanced role of the private sector and the enhancement of trade.
The CAEU countries are faced with difficult choices as to the balance between relying on domestic production and import supplies for meeting food demand. Governments have started to adopt the second option only gradually. The policy of agricultural self-reliance will necessitate making the agricultural sector more competitive.
Irrigation is constrained by the availability of sustainable water supply at reasonable cost. The use of groundwater for irrigation has reached its limits in some countries (for example in Syria and Jordan) and no further expansion can be sustained. However, there is considerable scope for increasing water use efficiency in existing irrigated areas through improved practices and use of water saving technologies.
The role assigned to the private sector in the economic reform has not yet provided cost-effective services and production inputs to the agricultural sector. There is a need to clarify which aspects of agricultural development are to be assigned to the private sector, which aspects are to remain within the domain of the public sector and which are the areas for partnership between the private and public sector. As long as there is uncertainty, the private sector will shy away from investing in crop and livestock production, agricultural processing and the marketing of agricultural produce.
Food security could be enhanced significantly by better circulation of trade information on basic crops within CAEU and the broader regions, as well as by easier and commonly agreed exchanges of main commodities among member states. There is considerable potential to increase CAEU trade by reducing sanitary and phytosanitary barriers and technical obstacles, promoting the reduction and harmonization of tariffs, and adopting the norms and standards of Codex Alimentarius. Countries that are not members of WTO could aim at membership or request observer status in order to better assess the opportunities of full membership.
As a follow up to the World Food Summit, draft National Strategies for Agricultural Development and Food Security: Horizon 2010 has been elaborated for the CAEU countries, taking into account available information, development plans, past performances, capacity to absorb investments and their profitability, both qualitatively and quantitatively. All CAEU countries aim to increase agricultural production and productivity while improving food security, particularly through reduction of poverty.
In order to maintain per caput cereal consumption, it is necessary to almost double production between 1990 and 2015. This implies strategic and priority actions for both rainfed and irrigated crops. For irrigated crops in particular, the strategy should focus on measures to use water efficiently on a sustainable basis: use of treated water, surface water collection, economic pricing of water and the application of water saving technologies and water harvesting techniques.
For rainfed crops, emphasis should be on introduction of drought resistant varieties, efficient use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, avoidance of repeated monocropping and abandonment of deep plowing and overgrazing.
Livestock production should be promoted through rangeland conservation practices, production of fodder under irrigation, rotations including legumes in rainfed areas, and improved availability of coarse grains either through increased production or through imports.
The private sector has been under-utilized in the development of agriculture, especially in the areas of small-scale irrigation, livestock farming, aquaculture, agro-processing and rural finance. Efforts are needed to remove the constraints which inhibit such private initiatives.
Governments trying to liberalize and privatize agricultural sectors have not stated output targets systematically. The draft National strategies provide indicative measures and targets for increased production. For example in Syria, the goals for the period 1997-2010 are an increase in yields of rainfed crops by 25%, improved water management on 200 000 ha, 0.2 million more cattle, 4 million more sheep and goats, 12,000 metric tons more meat production and 300 new small-scale fish ponds. Egypt's national strategy goals for 2010 include increasing the area under irrigation by 62,500 ha annually, increasing cropping intensity by 18%, increasing the stock of cattle and buffalo by 1.5 million herd and increasing in poultry meat production by 251 thousand tons.7
A first estimation of the resources needed to meet these objectives by 2010 had been made in the context of the draft National Strategies. Nevertheless, in the absence of adequate data for all the investment components in the national strategies, and in order to enable comparisons and aggregations for the region and across countries, a more general and uniform approach has been adopted by FAO in the preparation of the table below. It should be noted that investment needs comprise gross private and public investment. Also, an important part of this investment consists of labor provided by the farms themselves, namely through people's participation activities. Such investment in human resources may account for 40% or more of certain components of investment.
As shown in Table 4, the estimated investment requirements of the 8 lower middle income and less developed member countries of CAEU amount to approximately US$ 62 billion8 for the period 1998-2010. The composition of total investment includes US$ 15 billion for irrigation and drainage, US$ 6 billion for livestock development, US$ 18, and 5 billion for agro-industry and US$ 7 billion for marketing. It should be noted that the above estimates exclude the investment needs for research, extension, training, fisheries and rural infrastructure. Such investments could add up to another US$ 10-15 billion over the period 1998-2010.
The percentage distributions of the proposed investment by sub-sectors and by sub-groups of CAEU are shown in Table 5. About 51% of the total investment is for the development of agriculture in the lower middle income group and 30% in the LDCs of
CAEU. The share of agro-industry in total investment is close to 30%, followed by 24% for the investment needs of irrigation and drainage. Some 10% of the total investment is for livestock development. In this context, the importance of poultry as a low cost and a rapidly productive form of investment needs to the recognized as well as the development of sheep, goats, cattle and shelters for animals.
The ability to satisfy agricultural investment requirements implies particular efforts from member countries of CAEU, including the active participation of the private sector in agriculture and agro-industry, It is, however, very important that the macro-economic and legal context as well as the prevailing regulations should also enhance the efficiency of these legal context as well as the prevailing regulations should also enhance the efficiency of these investments.
Moreover, the CAEU member states must give particular attention to agriculture in their requests to bilateral and multilateral sources of finance. The priority given to these requests will be of utmost importance for increasing financial flows at the level needed to satisfy the investment objectives.
CAEU
Estimates of gross investment requirements in agriculture (1998-2010)
| Country | Irrigation | Non irrigated land development requirements | Establishment of permanent crops | Implements (Tractors , hand tools, etc.) | Animal Production | Agro-industry | Marketing | Total | |
| Millions of US dollars | Total in millions USD | Total in millions EURO | |||||||
| Egypt | 5,736 | 55 | 204 | 2,734 | 1,520 | 8,375 | 2,991 | 21,615 | 18,470 |
| Iraq | 2,760 | 151 | 141 | 2,144 | 904 | 2,210 | 942 | 9,252 | 7,906 |
| Jordan | 53 | 33 | 37 | 363 | 172 | 487 | 132 | 1,277 | 1,091 |
| Libya | 510 | 89 | 71 | 993 | 285 | 586 | 270 | 2,804 | 2,396 |
| Mauritania | 144 | 92 | 1 | 88 | 184 | 129 | 93 | 731 | 625 |
| Somalia | 675 | 170 | 18 | 354 | 479 | 466 | 356 | 2,518 | 2,152 |
| Sudan | 3,653 | 927 | 45 | 2,011 | 1,097 | 3,012 | 804 | 11,549 | 9,869 |
| Syria | 913 | 284 | 280 | 3,131 | 847 | 2,319 | 955 | 8,729 | 7,459 |
| Yemen | 485 | 145 | 63 | 765 | 496 | 942 | 693 | 3,589 | 3,067 |
| TOTAL * | 14,929 | 1,946 | 860 | 12,583 | 5,984 | 18,526 | 7,236 | 62,064 | 53,034 |
* Includes only the countries listed, which account for 97 % of the region's population.
The above data are gross investment needs provisional estimates for achieving the strategy's objective. They include public and private investments and the labor provided by the farmers themselves. They may differ from the national strategy papers because a uniform methodology was applied to facilitate countries aggregates.
Percentage Distribution of Estimated Agricultural Investment by Sub-group of CAEU Countries*
| Sub-group | Irrigation | Non-irrigated land development | Establishment of permanent crops | Implements (Tractors, hand tools etc) | Animal production | Agro-industry | Marketing | Total US$ million | Percent distribution of total investment by sub-group |
| (i) Oil exporting Countries | 21.9 | 12.3 | 24.7 | 24.9 | 19.9 | 15.1 | 16.7 | 12,056 | 19.5 |
| (ii) Lower middle income countries | 44.9 | 19.1 | 60.5 | 49.5 | 42.4 | 60.4 | 56.4 | 31,621 | 50.9 |
| (iii) LDCs of CAEU | 33.2 | 68.6 | 14.8 | 25.6 | 37.7 | 24.5 | 26.9 | 18,387 | 29.6 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | - | 100.0 |
| Value of investment (US$ million) | 14,929 | 1,946 | 860 | 12,583 | 5,984 | 18,526 | 7,236 | 62,064 | - |
| As percentage of total investment | 24.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 20.3 | 9.6 | 29.8 | 11.7 | 100.0 | - |
* Data are not available for Kuwait and UAE.
CAEU countries plan to achieve economic integration in stages. The CAEU has established a number of Arab joint ventures and specialized unions in different fields of economic activity and a program for the coordination of Arab Development Plans. Joint venture companies encourage closer cooperation in production and marketing of agricultural products. These include the Arab Company for Livestock Development (Damascus), the Arab Federation of Chemical Fertilizers Producers (Kuwait), Arab Sugar Federation (Khartoum), Arab Union of Fish Producers (Baghdad) and the Arab Union of Food Industries (Baghdad).
The member states of the CAEU should continue to reinforce their policies and programs concerning (i) food security through poverty reduction and better access to food products, and (ii) improved productivity and a reduced dependency on imported basic foodstuff.
As emphasized previously, the Special Program for Food Security (SPFS) of FAO which is already operating in four countries of CAEU can contribute significantly to the objectives set out in this strategy paper. The application of this Program will require access to various sources of financing. Important efforts should be made to mobilize bilateral and multilateral financial resources needed at different stages of the Program. It is to be noted that several agreements have been signed with the World Bank, the African Development Bank, UNDP, West African Bank of Development, Islamic Bank of Development as well as with several developing countries for technical assistance within the framework of the South-South Cooperation. But, it is advisable for CAEU member Governments to establish a special budget line reserved to the local part of financing SPFS.
The African Development Bank (ADB) has granted substantial resources for a certain number of countries (one million dollars each) to execute Phase I of SPFS, including South-South Cooperation. These resources are considered as preinvestment toward larger projects and eventually to financing the expansion phase of SPFS. Other financial institutions could consider the opportunity to follow similar assistance procedures for member states of the Council for Arab Economic Unity (CAEU).
FAO can also use its technical assistance programs and activities to increase productivity, diversify and increase competitiveness of agricultural export products in member countries of the group, and to promote trade growth, including intra-regional agricultural trade, in line with the complementarity and comparative advantage position of the various countries.
The harmonization of phyto- or zoo-sanitary trade measures among countries is part of the conditions required to facilitate and stimulate intra-regional trade of agricultural products. International norms and standards within the Codex Alimentarius are a fundamental technical and regulatory basis for the establishment of national regulations. FAO could assist member countries in areas such as training of managers in legislation and technical matters, and regional co-operation for laboratories and other scientific instruments of control. It has already created an Internet site on the Codex Alimentarius9 as well as on the Uruguay Round Agreement10, in which reference information and texts are available jointly with a description of FAO's assistance programs in these fields. Other programs aiming at these objectives are training for assessing the changing conditions of the international trading environment, in the context of the disciplines and opportunities emerging from the Marrakech agreement, and preparation for the up-coming trade negotiations concerning agriculture.
Most of the activities mentioned above could be undertaken within the framework of a "Regional Program for Food Security in the Member Countries of the CAEU".
| Country | Exports of goods and services (1) * | Imports of goods and services (2) * | Current account balance (3) * |
Total debt service (4) * |
Ratio (4) / (1) | ||||||||||
| 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | |
| Egypt, Arab Rep. | 6,992 | 8,647 | 15,975 | 9,822 | 14,109 | 22,758 | -438 | -2,381 | -1,171 | 1,235 | 3,074 | 1,708 | 18% | 36% | 11% |
| Iraq | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Jordan | 1,579 | 2,489 | 3,536 | 3,336 | 3,728 | 5,796 | 281 | -411 | 59 | 210 | 624 | 781 | 13% | 25% | 22% |
| Libya | 23,523 | 11,464. | n.a. | 11,167 | 8,960 | n.a. | 8,214 | 2,201 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Mauritania | 265 | 473 | 378 | 473 | 619 | 500 | -133 | -10 | -22 | 48 | 146 | 100 | 18% | 31% | 26% |
| Somalia | 200 | 90 | 1,838. | 534 | 346 | n.a. | -136 | n.a. | n.a. | 13 | 11 | 1 | 6% | 12% | n.a. |
| Sudan | 810 | 653 | n.a. | 1,597 | 1,291 | 1,871. | -316 | -372 | -1,553 | 264 | 50 | 62 | 33% | 8% | 3%. |
| Syrian Arab Republic | 2,381 | 3,413 | 6,555 | 4,629 | 3,374 | 5,762 | 251 | 1,762 | 164 | 382 | 1,273 | 344 | 16% | 37% | 5%. |
| Yemen, Rep. | n.a. | 689 | 4,305 | n.a. | 969 | 3,150 | n.a. | 739 | 2,063 | 73 | 169 | 221 | n.a. | 25% | 5% |
| TOTAL | (35,750) | (27,923) | (32,587) | (31,558) | (33,396) | (39,837) | (7,723) | (1,528) | (-460) | (2,225) | (5,347) | (3,216) | (6%) ** | (19%) ** | (10%) ** |
( ) Total on partial data.
* Source: World Development indicators 1997 - The World Bank
** Average ratio for the countries that have both (1) and (4) data available.
n.a: no data available
All data in Millions of US Dollars
| Country | Food imports (1) * |
Exports of goods and services (2) ** | Ratio (1) / (2) | ||||||
| 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | |
| Egypt | 1,871 | 2,429 | 2,724 | 6,992 | 8,647 | 15,975 | 27% | 28% | 17% |
| Iraq | 1,832 | 1,496 | 1,428 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Jordan | 458 | 639 | 710 | 1,579 | 2,489 | 3,563 | 29% | 26% | 20% |
| Libyan Arab Jamahiriya | 1,116 | 1,155 | 834 | 23,523 | 11,469 | n.a. | 5% | n.a. | n.a. |
| Mauritania | 83 | 126 | 150 | 265 | 473 | 378 | 31% | 27% | 40% |
| Palestine | 40 | 39 | 62 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Somalia | 100 | 72 | 81 | 200 | 90 | n.a. | 50% | 80% | n.a. |
| Sudan | 372 | 192 | 154 | 810 | 653 | 1,838 | 46% | 29% | 8% |
| Syrian Arab Republic | 514 | 709 | 2,416 | 2,381 | 3,413 | 6,555. | 22% | 21% | n.a. |
| Yemen | 682 | 597 | 657 | n.a. | 689 | 4,305 | n.a. | 87% | 15% |
| TOTAL | 7,068 | 7,454 | 9,016 | (35,750) | (27,923) | (34,630) | (20%) *** | (27%) *** | (28%) *** |
( ) Total on partial data.
* Source: FAOSTAT 1998
** Source: World Development indicators 1997 - The World Bank
*** Average ratio for the countries that have both (1) and (2) data available.
n.a: no data available
All data in Millions of US Dollars
| INDICATORS | UNIT | 1990-91 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 |
| Population & Agricultural Labor Force | ||||||
| Population | 1000 | 140,795 | 169,553 | 173,809 | 178,109 | 182,560 |
| Population annual growth | percent | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Rural / Total Population | percent | 55 | 53 | 52 | 52 | 54 |
| Agricultural Labor Force | 1000 | 21,628 | 23,876 | 24,186 | 24,511 | 24,870 |
| Agricultural Labor Force/Total Labor Force | percent | 54 | 40 | 39 | 39 | 38 |
| Land Use | ||||||
| Total Land | 1000 HA | 802,198 | 802,198 | 802,198 | 802,160 | 802,160 |
| Arable Land + Permanent Crops | 1000 HA | 32,716 | 37,028 | 37,037 | 36,880 | 37,247 |
| Permanent Pasture | 1000 HA | 234,342 | 234,676 | 234,671 | 241,945 | 241,810 |
| Forest and Woodland | 1000 HA | 67,796 | 66,065 | |||
| Irrigated Land | 1000 HA | 9,993 | 11,272 | 11,254 | 11,271 | 11,379 |
| Agricultural Production - Major Items | ||||||
| Tomatoes | 1000 MT | 5,899 | 8,229 | 8,600 | 9,184 | 8,575 |
| Indigenous cattle meat | 1000 MT | 549 | 713 | 694 | 741 | 794 |
| Cow milk, whole, fresh | 1000 MT | 5,125 | 6,873 | 7,221 | 7,313 | 7,532 |
| Food Production | ||||||
| Food Production Index | 1989-91=100 | 101 | 130 | 123 | 129 | 133 |
| Per caput Food Production Index | 1989-91=100 | 90 | 97 | 88 | 91 | 98 |
| Foreign Trade - Exports | ||||||
| Total | MLN US$ | 27,756 | 23,697 | 26,336 | 30,451 | 37,446 |
| Agricultural | MLN US$ | 2,019 | 2,598 | 2,249 | 3,912 | 2,864 |
| Major Exports (share in Agriculture) | ||||||
| Cotton lint | percent | 22 | 19 | 18 | 24 | 13 |
| Sheep and Goats | percent | 14 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| Milled paddy rice | percent | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Foreign Trade - Imports | ||||||
| Total | MLN US$ | 26,156 | 39,620 | 39,343 | 37,916 | 35,104 |
| Agricultural | MLN US$ | 8,207 | 9,160 | 9,052 | 11,056 | 9,173 |
| Major Imports (share in Agriculture) | ||||||
| Wheat and Flower, wheat equiv. | percent | 25 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 22 |
| Sugar refined | percent | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| Maize | percent | 5 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 10 |
| Land & Inputs | ||||||
| Total Population/Arable Land | Inh / HA | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Fertilizer Use/Arable Land | kg nutrs./HA | 35 | 58 | 63 | 60 | 62 |
| Tractors/Arable Land | no/ 1000 HA | 5 | 8 | 9 | 9 | |
| Food Supply | 1979-81 | 1994-96 | ||||
| Per caput Dietary Energy Supply | kcal /day | 2,644 | 2,655 | 2,641 | ||
| Per caput Dietary Protein Supply | g / day | 74 | 72 | 71 |
Source : FAOSTAT
7 More detailed information can be found in the documents of Draft Strategy for National Agricultural Development Horizon 2010 as World Food Summit Follow-up.
8 These figures only provide at this stage a broad order of magnitude. More precise and detailed estimates will be needed at the various operational levels with the participation of the countries concerned."
9 http:/www.fao.org/
10 http:/www.fao.org/ur
