C 2003/2

Conference

Table of Contents

I. INTRODUCTION

II. CURRENT FOOD SECURITY SITUATION

A. Trends in undernourishment

B. Food emergencies

C. Food Aid

III. CURRENT AGRICULTURAL SITUATION

A. CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

B. world cereal supply situation

C. international commodity price trends

D. agricultural trade

E. Fisheries: production, utilization and trade

F. forestry

IV. RESOURCES TO AGRICULTURE

A. EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE

B. AGRICULTURAL CAPITAL STOCK

V. SUMMARY

ANNEX: THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE IN FIGURES

I. INTRODUCTION

1. The most recent food security data present a rather bleak picture for a large number of developing countries. Between 1995-97 and 1999-2001, the number of undernourished people in the developing countries increased by 18 million, a disturbing development, given the global community’s commitment to food security concerns, its capacity to produce more than enough food for every human being, and its power to use modern information systems to pinpoint exactly where food is needed and to mobilize rapid transport systems to move food quickly around the globe. The food security problem remains a persistent, formidable and elusive development problem.

2. This year’s Conference document on the State of Food and Agriculture presents information on global food security developments and highlights recent trends in agricultural production, markets and trade, as well as in external assistance to agriculture. The information is based on data available as early September 2003.

3. Delegates are also invited to refer to various recent FAO documents and web pages for more current information and detailed analysis. For example, the latest versions of “Food Outlook” and “Foodcrops and shortages” offer updated commodity production and market information, as well as information on food emergencies; comprehensive information on food insecurity can be found in “The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003;” and important food security issues related to HIV/AIDS are outlined in document CFS:2003/3, Assessment of the World Food Security Situation, Rome, May 16-23.

II. CURRENT FOOD SECURITY SITUATION

A. TRENDS IN UNDERNOURISHMENT

4. FAO estimates the number of undernourished people in the world in 1999-2001 at 842 million: 798 million in the developing countries, 34 million in the countries in transition and 11 million in the developed market economies (see Annex, fig. 1). More than half of the total numbers of undernourished, 60 percent, are found in Asia and the Pacific, followed by sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 24 percent of the total.

5. The picture is different in terms of the proportion of the population which is undernourished in the different developing country regions (Annex, fig. 2). The highest incidence of undernourishment is found in sub-Saharan Africa, where FAO estimates 33 percent of the population to be undernourished. This is well above the 17 percent undernourished estimated for Asia and the Pacific and the 10 percent estimated for both Latin America and the Caribbean and the Near East and North Africa.

6. At the global level, the long-term trends of many food security indicators have been positive. The prevalence of undernourishment in developing countries fell from 28 percent of the total population in 1979-81 to 17 percent in 1999-2001 (Annex, fig. 3). And the average global calorie supply per person grew by 19 percent since the mid-1960s to reach 2800 kcal/person/day, with the developing country average expanding by more than 30 percent. As consumption increased, diets shifted towards more meat, milk, eggs, vegetables, oils and away from basic foodstuffs. Much of this past progress in the developing country aggregate food consumption numbers and undernourishment indicators are influenced decisively by the significant gains made in the most populous countries -- those with populations of more than 100 million, including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan.

7. However, due to population growth, the decline in absolute numbers of undernourished people has been slower than for the percentage incidence of undernourishment (Annex, fig. 4). Furthermore, the decline was much more pronounced in the course of the 1980s, while it appears to have slowed down in the 1990s.

8. Most of the improvement in undernourishment figures over the past two decades has been concentrated in Asia and the Pacific, which halved the incidence of undernourishment over the period. In sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, the very limited reduction in the percentage incidence of undernourishment has been more than counterbalanced by population growth, resulting in an increase in absolute numbers of undernourished. In the Near East and North Africa the incidence of undernourishment in 1999-2001 was slightly above the level of two decades earlier, after having actually increased over the 1990s.

9. Progress in improving nutrition and reducing undernourishment is expected to continue. Based on UN population projections and World Bank projections of income growth, FAO has projected the numbers of undernourished by 2015 and by 2030 (Table 1). According to the projections, the proportion of undernourished people in the developing countries should fall significantly, from 20 percent in 1990-92 to 11 percent in 2015 and 6 percent in 2030. However, due to population growth, the total number of undernourished people in the developing countries is expected to decline more slowly, from 815 million in 1990-92 to 610 million by 2015 and around 440 million by 2030. These forecasts suggest that the World Food Summit target and the Millennium Development Goal of halving hunger in the world by 2015 will not be met.

Table 1: Projections of Food and Hunger Indicators by Region

* Projections to 2015 and 2030 have 1997-99 as base period.
Source: FAO, World agriculture towards 2015/30, Summary Report, Rome 2002.

10. The data in Table 1 emphasize the urgency of addressing the problems of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, with the numbers of undernourished in this region projected to increase by 9 million people between 1997-99 and 2015. By 2030, approximately 40 percent of the undernourished people in the developing countries will be in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to 25 percent today. Over the next 15 years, the average regional food consumption level in Africa is expected to increase only by 7 percent to 2360 kcal/person/day, compared with 2700 for South Asia, 2980 for Latin America and the Caribbean and 3060 for East Asia.

11. These trends and projections are important reasons for placing high priority on agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural conditions vary widely both among and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa but they do share a number of worrisome characteristics and trends. Examples include a high degree of production variability, relatively low crop yields and dependency on exports of primary commodities, many of which are subjected to low income and price elasticity of demand and high price volatility. Sub-Saharan Africa falls well below other developing regions in the proportion of area irrigated, value added per worker, fertilizer use levels and productivity growth in both crop and livestock activities. Agriculture’s relatively weak, and often declining performance is symptomatic of inadequate investments in human capital, agricultural infrastructure, research and extension networks, and long-term crisis management. The longer these basic investments are delayed, the less competitive agriculture will become and the weaker its potential for contributing to reducing undernourishment and poverty.

12. In addition to the human suffering, the damaging consequences of hunger and malnutrition on human productivity are increasingly documented and understood. Recent evidence demonstrates that hunger can have severe negative effects on the economic growth rates of countries with a high prevalence of undernourishment. FAO’s work on the links between hunger and economic growth suggests that for sub-Saharan Africa the economic cost of hunger and malnutrition is high. Over the period 1960 to 1990, countries in the region could have attained an average per-caput GDP level of US$ 2 200 by 1990 in the absence of undernourishment. Instead, the region’s average GDP per capita in 1990 was just US $800 per year.

B. FOOD EMERGENCIES

13. A large number of countries and people continue to be affected by food emergencies. As of early September 2003, the number of countries facing serious food shortages requiring international assistance stood at 38. Twenty-two of these were in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Latin America and 2 in Europe. In many of these countries, the food shortages are compounded by the impact of the HIV-AIDS pandemic on food production, marketing, transport and utilization.

14. Although adverse weather conditions are behind many of the emergency situations, human-caused disasters are also a major factor. Civil strife or the existence of internally displaced people or refugees are among the reasons for more than half of the reported food emergencies in Africa, as well as both instances in Europe. The proportion of food emergencies that can be considered human-made has increased over time. Indeed, conflict and economic problems were cited as the main cause of more than 35 percent of food emergencies between 1992 and 2003, as compared to around 15 percent in the period from 1986 to 1991.

15. Other factors can contribute to food emergencies. The international price crisis which for three years has stricken the coffee sector has sharply curtailed the purchasing power of the people employed in the sector and has been a major cause of increased food insecurity, in particular in some countries of Central America.

16. The recurrence and persistence of emergencies often compound the severity of their impact. Thus, thirty-three countries experienced food emergencies during more than half of the years of the period 1986-2003. In particular, many conflict-induced complex emergencies are persistent and turn into long-term crises. No less than 8 countries suffered emergencies during 15 or more years of the period 1986-2003 and, in all instances, war or civil strife was a major factor behind the emergencies.

C. FOOD AID

17. Food aid in cereals fell to 7.4 million tonnes in 2001/02 (July to June), 2.3 million tonnes (or 23 percent) below 2000/01 and the lowest level recorded since 1998/99 (Annex, fig. 5). The decline concerned nearly all recipient regions. The top 5 recipients of cereal food aid in 2001/02, in terms of volumes of shipments, were Korea, DPR, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and the Philippines. The first three also topped the list in the previous year.

18. Cereal food aid has been characterised by relatively large annual fluctuations but has tended to decline relative to the level of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Larger overall shipments were recorded in 1998/99 and 1999/2000, mainly due to major shipments to the Russian Federation. Also in per caput terms, shipments have declined substantially relative to the early 1990s (Table 2). Disregarding exceptionally large shipments to the Russian Federation in certain years, Africa remains the largest recipient in per caput terms, albeit at levels well below those of a decade ago.

Table 2: Per caput shipments of food aid in cereals (in grain equivalent) (kg per capita)

Note: years refer to the 12-month period July/June.
Source: WFP.

III. CURRENT AGRICULTURAL SITUATION

A. CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

19. The rate of growth of global crop and livestock production has slowed down in each of the last three years, following the strong output growth recorded in 1999 (Annex, fig. 6). The slow rate of growth in 2002 of less than 1 percent at the global level implies a reduction in output in per caput terms. Global output growth in each of the three years 2000-02 was below the average of each of the three preceding decades. This pattern applies to both the developed and the developing country groups. However, the trend towards lower agricultural output growth over the last few years, both in absolute and per caput terms, is more clearly discernable for the developing country group.

20. The trend towards lower agricultural output growth in the developing countries is essentially accounted for by Asia and the Pacific (Annex, fig. 7), and more specifically China, where the very high rates of agricultural output growth recorded since the beginning of the economic reform process in the late 1970s have been tapering off in recent years. China has indeed attained very high levels of per capita food consumption which is expected to slow down growth in demand for food products in the future.

21. Sub-Saharan Africa has likewise recorded lower growth in agricultural output over the last three years. This follows relatively favourable rates of output growth during most of the 1990s. In 2002, the provisional data point to stagnant levels of production. Latin America and the Caribbean has experienced relatively favourable growth rates of production over the last 5-6 years, averaging around 3 percent per year, in line with the earlier part of the 1990s and above the lower rates of the 1980s. In the Near East and North Africa, agricultural performance continues to be characterized by very pronounced fluctuations due to the climatic conditions of numerous countries in the region. After three years of consecutive declines in output for the region as a whole, the provisional estimates suggest some recovery in levels of production in 2002.

22. Long term trends in per caput food production provide an indication of the contribution of the sector to food supplies in the developing country regions (Annex, fig. 8). Over the last three decades, Latin America and the Caribbean and, in particular, Asia and the Pacific have seen sustained growth in per caput food production. In the Near East and North Africa, the increase has been much more limited, amid pronounced fluctuations. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that has not seen increases in per caput food production over the last three decades; indeed, after a pronounced decline in the course of the 1970s and early 1980s, per caput food production has stagnated and is still at the level of two decades ago.

B. WORLD CEREAL SUPPLY SITUATION

23. Cereals provide 48 percent of global calorie intake (in 2001) and 53 percent in the developing countries, although the share has been declining steadily. However, the share of calorie intake provided by cereals differs significantly between countries and regions in the developing countries, ranging from around 60 percent in East and South East Asia and South Asia, to around 47 percent in sub-Saharan Africa and 33 percent in South America.

24. Since the strong increase in 1996, global cereal production has been stagnating. Global utilization, on the other hand, has been continuing on an upward trend and has been exceeding production by significant amounts since the 2000/2001 marketing year (Annex, fig. 9). FAO’s latest forecasts for global cereal production in 2003 and the first forecast for utilization in 2003/04 indicate that output will remain below the expected level of utilization. In 2004, stocks will have to be drawn down for the fourth consecutive year.

25. As in the previous seasons, lower stocks in China account for the bulk of the reduction in world stocks (Annex, fig. 10). Of the overall decline in cereal stocks since 1999, China alone accounted for around 70 percent, as a result of deliberate policies to downsize cereal inventories through exports.

C. INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICE TRENDS

26. Agricultural commodity prices peaked in the mid-1990s, and then tended downwards during the second half of the decade, although prices for some commodities began to recover during 2001 and 2002 (Annex, fig. 11). In general, agricultural commodity prices during the second half of the 1990s were influenced mainly by supply responses to previously high prices and prices of close substitutes, the Asian financial crisis, which undermined economic growth prospects and lowered demand in many countries, and the continuing support to production and exports by a number of developed countries.

27. The sharpest price decline has been that of coffee. Significant oversupply on world markets, mainly due to expansion of planted area in Vietnam and the devaluation of the Brazilian real, led to further sharp price declines in 2001, bringing average prices for the year to around a third of the peak level in 1997. The prolonged period of low prices resulted in supply reductions which have since contributed to some recovery in prices, even though they remain depressed.

28. Lower international prices have moderated the food import bills of developing countries, which, as a group, are net food importers. However, although the lower international prices of basic foods have brought short-term benefits to net-food importing developing countries, lower international prices can also provide a disincentive to domestic food production in developing countries with important food security implications in the longer run.

29. At the same time, while a number of net food importing countries have benefited from lower prices of food imports, many agricultural exporting countries experienced negative effects on their ability to generate export earnings, especially developing country exporters of agricultural raw materials, beverages and other tropical products.

30. The negative effect of lower prices on agricultural export revenues can be particularly severe for countries that rely on exports of a small number of agricultural commodities for a large share of their export revenues, as is the case for many developing countries. The high dependence on only a few export commodities makes the overall economies of these countries extremely vulnerable to market conditions for these commodities. Large fluctuations in export proceeds, in their turn, are likely to have negative impacts on income, investment, employment and growth.

31. As many as 43 developing countries depend on one single agricultural commodity for more than 20 percent of their total export revenues and more than 50 percent of their agricultural export revenue. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean. The most important export commodities for these countries are coffee, bananas, cotton lint and cocoa beans. As table 3 illustrates, both the overall and the agricultural export performance of these 43 commodity-dependent countries has been significantly poorer than that of the rest of the developing countries.

Table 3: Trends in agricultural exports of top 43 countries with the highest single agricultural commodity-dependence

¹ The group includes developing countries which depend on one single agricultural commodity for more than 20 percent of their total export revenues and more than 50 percent of their agricultural export revenues.
² World exports include intra-EU trade.
Source: Computed from FAOSTAT.

D. AGRICULTURAL TRADE

32. After a relatively strong expansion in the mid-1990s, the value of global agricultural exports has been declining from 1997 to 2001 (Annex, fig. 12), with the decline affecting both developed and developing countries. Throughout the 1990s, the share of agricultural trade in total merchandise trade has continued the long-term downward trend, as agricultural trade has expanded more moderately than for manufactured goods, and now stands at 7 percent, compared to around 25 percent in the early 1960s (Annex, fig. 13). For the developing countries, the share of agricultural exports in total merchandise exports has dropped from almost 50 percent in the early 1960s to only 7 percent in 2001.

33. Until the early 1990s, the developing countries recorded an agricultural trade surplus in most years. This traditional agricultural trade surplus position of the developing countries has been shrinking over time, and throughout most of the last decade their agricultural exports and imports have been roughly in balance (Annex, fig. 14). FAO’s outlook to 2030¹ suggests that, as a group, they will become net agricultural importers and projects a developing country agricultural trade deficit of US$ 18 billion (in US$ of 1997/99) in 2015, rising to US$ 35 billion in 2030. The trend towards a widening agricultural trade deficit is even more pronounced for the group of least developed countries. The group, became net importers of agricultural products as early as the mid-1980s and their agricultural trade deficit has been widening so rapidly that already by the end of the 1990s imports were more than twice as high as exports. The outlook to 2030 suggests that the agricultural trade deficit of the least developed countries will continue to widen and could quadruple by that year.

34. Both policy and market factors have been driving these trends in the agricultural trade position of developing countries. On the policy side, barriers to trade and domestic support to agricultural production in many developed countries have restricted agricultural exports of developing countries. By holding down world commodity prices, these policies have hampered the development of agriculture in developing countries, where less government support to agriculture is available. On the market side, growth in developing country agricultural exports has been limited by sluggish and largely saturated demand in developed countries. This has particularly been the case for tropical products such as coffee, cocoa and tea.

35. Nevertheless, quite different agricultural trade positions are found in the different developing country regions. In particular, Latin America and the Caribbean has seen a widening of its agricultural trade surplus, starting around the mid-1990s. At the same time, Asia and the Pacific has become a net agricultural importer, while the significant structural deficit of the Near East and North Africa has shown no signs of diminishing.

E. FISHERIES: PRODUCTION, UTILIZATION AND TRADE

36. Fisheries play an important role in the world food economy. More than 30 million fishers and fish farmers gain their livelihoods from fisheries. Globally, fish provide about 16 percent of animal proteins consumed, with variations from an average of 30 percent in Asia to approximately 20 percent in Africa and around 10 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean. Developments in world supply of fisheries over the last decade have been overshadowed by trends in China, which has sustained very strong growth in fish production, in particular aquaculture, and has become the world’s largest fish producer.

37. Total fishery production in 2001 was reported to be 130.2 million tonnes, of which 37.9 million tonnes from aquaculture (Annex, fig. 15). World capture fisheries production declined from 95.4 million tonnes in 2000 to 92.4 million tonnes in 2001 (Annex, fig. 16). Most of the fluctuations in capture production in recent years have been due to variations in catches of Peruvian anchoveta, which are driven by climatic conditions (i.e. el Niño). Excluding anchoveta, global capture production has remained fairly stable since 1995. In 2001, China was the leading producer country with 16.5 million tonnes, representing a decrease of 2.7 percent compared to 2000. China was followed by Peru (8.0 million tonnes), the USA (4.9 million tonnes), Japan (4.7 million tonnes) and Indonesia (4.2 million tonnes).

38. World aquaculture production has been increasing rapidly in recent years and now accounts for almost 30 percent of total fisheries production (Annex, fig. 17). Most of the expansion has been attributable to China, which is now responsible for more than two-thirds of total aquaculture production in volume terms (26.1 million tonnes in 2001).

39. In 2001, about 38 percent (live weight equivalent) of world fish production entered international trade. Developing countries supplied slightly more than 50 percent of exports, with the first 8-9 exporters accounting for two-thirds of the developing country total. The developed countries absorbed more than 80 percent of total world fisheries imports in value terms (Annex, fig. 18). Japan and the USA together accounted for as much as 45 percent of total world imports of fisheries products. The importance of fisheries exports as a foreign currency earner for developing countries has increased significantly. Today, net exports of fisheries products from developing countries far exceed export earnings from major commodities such as coffee, bananas, rubber.

40. In 2001, an estimated about 31 million tonnes of world fishery production was reduced to meal, with the remaining 99 million tonnes going to human consumption. In per caput terms, while total supplies of fish for food from capture have been stagnating in recent years, per caput supplies from aquaculture have increased strongly (Annex, fig. 19). This is particularly so in China, where per caput supplies from aquaculture have increased to the point of providing slightly more than 75 percent of total per caput fish supplies for food, as compared to only 18 percent in the rest of the world.

F. FORESTRY

41. World roundwood production in 2002 reached an estimated 3 380 million cubic metres, about 1.1 percent above the level of the preceding year. Total roundwood production has been stagnant over the last decade, with production in 2002 at about the level of a decade earlier (Annex, fig. 20). The greater part of global wood production is burned as fuel. Of total roundwood production in 2002, 53 percent was wood fuel and the remaining 47 percent industrial roundwood. The vast majority of wood burning occurs in developing countries, where often wood is the most important source of energy. On the other hand, the larger part of industrial roundwood production continues to be accounted for by the developed countries which provide more than 70 percent of the total, although the share of developing countries has increased over time.

42. The developing countries accounted for 2 015 million cubic metres, or 60 percent of total roundwood production in 2002 (Annex, fig. 21). However, in the developing countries almost 80 percent of roundwood production consists of wood fuel, production of which is continuing on an upward trend. Developing country production of industrial roundwood increased relatively strongly until the mid-1990s but has declined marginally from the level of 1995.

43. In the developed countries, industrial roundwood accounts for approximately 85 percent of roundwood production, while wood fuel production is of relatively marginal importance and is decreasing. Also, developed country production, following a significant decline in the early 1990s, is still well below the peak levels of 1989-90.

44. Based on the The Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000 the net annual average loss in global forest cover from 1990 to 2000 has been estimated at 9.4 million hectares or 0.2 percent of total forest cover (Table 4). The largest percentage losses were in Africa and South America.

Table 4: Global forest cover

Source: FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000.

IV. RESOURCES TO AGRICULTURE

A. EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE

45. Measured in constant 1995 prices, external assistance to agriculture declined in 1999, following increases in the three preceding years (Annex, fig. 22). Data for 2000 suggest stagnant levels of external assistance to agriculture in that year. Most of the decline in 1999 was due to lower levels of multilateral assistance. Overall, multilateral assistance has been fluctuating more over the last few years, while bilateral assistance has remained relatively more constant.

46. The longer term trends in external assistance to agriculture reveal a very significant decline in real terms from the early 1980s (with a peak in 1982) to the early 1990s (Annex, fig. 23). From 1993 onwards, external assistance to agriculture has fluctuated around levels close to half of those recorded over the period 1982-86. Both bilateral and multilateral assistance have contributed to the significant contraction in levels of assistance compared with those of the former part of the 1980s. On the other hand, the share of concessional assistance in the total has tended to increase somewhat, reaching more than 80 percent in 2000.

47. When measured in terms of amounts per agricultural worker, external assistance to agriculture has declined very significantly since the early 1980s (Annex, fig. 24). The decline has been particularly severe in sub-Saharan Africa, where external assistance per person employed in agriculture is only around a quarter of the peak level in 1982. There are significant differences in assistance per agricultural worker among the developing country regions, with levels in Latin America and the Caribbean vastly exceeding those of the other regions. Moreover, external assistance to agriculture does not tend to reach the neediest countries in terms of the prevalence of undernourishment. Indeed, external assistance per agricultural worker is higher in the countries with the lowest prevalence of undernourished people in the population (Annex, fig. 25).

B. AGRICULTURAL CAPITAL STOCK

48. Capital stock in agriculture is an important determinant of agricultural labour productivity and of farm incomes.² FAO has prepared estimates of capital stock in agriculture, using physical data on livestock, tractors, irrigated land and land under permanent crops, etc. as well as the average prices for the year 1995. This data enabled the derivation of Capital Stock in Agriculture. The annual change in the latter is taken to reflect investment in agriculture.

49. Relating capital stock in agriculture to the number of economically active people in agriculture provides an indicator of the degree of capitalization of the sector (Annex, fig. 26). Agricultural capital stock per agricultural worker differs very significantly among the developing country regions, with levels in Latin America and the Caribbean and in the Near East and North Africa well above those in sub-Saharan Africa and in Asia and the Pacific. Also, when looking at the longer-term trend, since 1975 agricultural capital stock per agricultural worker has increased relatively significantly only in Latin America and the Caribbean, while only limited increases have occurred in the Near East and North Africa and Asia and the Pacific. The most worrisome feature is the slow, but seemingly inexorable, decline in capital stock per agricultural worker in sub-Saharan Africa.

50. Relating capital stock per agricultural worker to prevalence of undernourishment shows that countries with the lowest incidence of undernourishment have the highest level of capital stock per agricultural worker and have seen the largest increase in agricultural capital stock per worker over the past 25 years (Annex, fig. 27). By contrast, countries where more than 35 percent of the population is undernourished have the lowest levels of capital stock per worker and have even experienced a decline over the past 25 years.³

V. SUMMARY

51. This document highlights a number of positive and negative features in the state of world food and agriculture. Some of the major features include:

• The number of undernourished people in the world remains stubbornly high, at an estimated 842 million people in 1999-2001. Not only has past progress in reducing these numbers been unacceptably slow and extremely uneven across countries and regions, the most recent estimates suggest that the declining trend in the number of undernourished people may have reversed in recent years. Indeed, in the developing countries, the number of undernourished people is estimated to have increased by 18 million between 1995-97 to 1999-2001.
• At the same time, a large number of countries and people worldwide continue to be affected by food emergencies. Many of these are attributable to unfavourable climatic conditions and natural events, but an increasing number are also determined by human-caused disasters.
• Although food security is much more than a food production problem, the agricultural sector can nevertheless provide an important and, in some cases, indispensable contribution to reducing both food insecurity and poverty. Analysis of agricultural production data over time reveal sharp differences in the contribution of the agricultural sector in different countries and regions. In particular, sub-Saharan Africa is the only developing country region that has not seen an increase in per caput food production over the last three decades.
• International commodity price trends continue to pose economic development problems for many exporters of agricultural commodities, especially for those developing countries which are highly dependent on exports of just a few agricultural commodities.
• In spite of the presumed comparative advantage of many developing countries in agriculture, the net agricultural trade position of the developing countries, and particularly the least-developing countries, has worsened over time. This trend looks likely to continue. In this regard, it is important to emphasise the role of the on-going WTO negotiations on agricultural trade in the context of the Doha Round. The outcome of these negotiations may play a critical role for enhancing the contribution of trade in agricultural products to economic development in many developing countries.
• The inadequacy of resource flows to the agricultural sector is underlined both by the low levels of external assistance to agriculture, as compared to past levels, and by the very slow increase, and in some cases even decline, in capital stock per worker in the agricultural sector in some of the developing country regions. Increased resource flows to and investments in the sector, appear indispensable.

52. Projections to 2015 and 2030 suggest that progress in improving nutrition and reducing undernourishment will continue, but at a rate below what is needed to meet the World Food Summit target and the Millennium Development Goal of halving hunger in the world by 2015. The projections also underline the unevenness of the expected progress and in particular points to the urgency of addressing the problems of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Without decisive action in this regard, approximately 40 percent of the total number of undernourished could be concentrated in this region by 2030, compared to only 25 percent today.

ANNEX: THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE IN FIGURES

Fig. 1: Undernourished population by region, 1999-2001 (millions)

Fig. 2: Percentage of population undernourished, by region, 1999-2001

Fig 3: Trend in percentage of population undernourished in developing countries

Fig. 4: Trend in number of undernourished people in developing countries

Fig 5: Recipients of food aid in cereals (in grain equivalent)

Note: years refer to the 12-month period July/June.
Source: WFP.

Fig 6: Changes in crop and livestock production
Annual percentage change

* Provisional data.

Fig 7: Changes in crop and livestock production by region
Annual percentage change

Note: Includes South Africa.

* Provisional data.

Fig 8: Long-term trend in per caput food production by developing country region (index 1989-91 = 100)

* Provisional data.

Fig 9: World cereal production and utilization

* Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.
** Forecast.

Fig 10: World cereal stocks* and stocks-to-utilization ratio

* Stock data are based on aggregate carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
** Forecast.

Fig 11: Commodity price trends

* 4 month average, January-April.

** 6 month average, January-June.

Fig 12: Annual change in US$ value of global agricultural exports (percentage change)

Fig 13: Global agricultural exports
(US$ and percent of total merchandise exports)

Fig 14: Agricultural imports and exports by region (in value and as share of merchandise exports and imports)

Fig 15: Total fishery production - World and China

Fig 16: Capture fishery production - World and China

Fig 17: Aquaculture fishery production – World and China

Fig 18: Exports and imports of fishery products developed and developing countries

Fig 19: Per caput fish supply from capture and aquaculture
-World and China

Fig 20: Roundwood production, World

Fig 21: Roundwood production, developed and developing countries

Fig 22: Commitments of external assistance to agriculture by main recipient regions (at constant 1995 prices)

Fig 23: Long-term trend in external assistance to agriculture, 1974-2000
(at constant 1995 prices)

Fig 24: External assistance to agriculture per agricultural worker
(in constant 1995 prices)

Fig 25: External assistance to agriculture per agricultural worker according to prevalence of undernourishment, 1998-2000 (in constant 1995 prices)

Fig 26: Agricultural capital stock per agricultural worker, by region
(US$ of 1995 per agricultural worker)

Note: Sub-Saharan Africa does not include South Africa.

Fig 27: Agricultural capital stock per agricultural worker in developing countries by prevalence of undernourishment in 1998-2000 (US$ of 1995 per agricultural worker)

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¹ FAO, World agriculture towards 2015/30, Summary Report, Rome 2002.

² The capital stock in agriculture refers to replacement value in monetary terms (at the end of the year) of tangible fixed assets produced or acquired (such as machinery, structures, livestock, land improvements) for repeated use in agriculture production process.

³ For a further discussion of this, see: FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2002, Rome 2002.