Implementing the World Food Summit Plan of Action:
First Steps, Future Challenges

Background Paper prepared by FAO for the Specialized Inter-Parliamentary Conference
"Attaining the World Food Summit's objectives through a sustainable development strategy"

Rome, 29 November to 2 December 1998


1. The World Food Summit, convened by FAO from 13-17 November 1996 in Rome, was the first global gathering ever held at the level of Heads of State and Government to address the challenge of eliminating hunger and malnutrition and achieving sustainable food security for all.

2. The Rome Declaration on World Food Security and the World Food Summit Plan of Action were adopted unanimously by the 186 participating delegations, of which 112 were led by Heads or Deputy Heads of State or Government. Fifteen countries filed "reservations or interpretative statements" on specific aspects of the documents.

3. In the Rome Declaration, participants pledged their "political will and (their) common and national commitment to achieving food security for all and to an ongoing effort to eradicate hunger in all countries, with an immediate view to reducing the number of undernourished people to half their present level no later than 2015." The Declaration sets forth seven commitments which lay the basis for achieving sustainable food security for all, and the Plan of Action spells out the objectives and actions relevent for practical implementation of these seven commitments.

4. Commitment Seven stresses that governments have the main responsibility, involving all actors, to create the economic and political environment within which action can be taken to assure the food security of their citizens. Among the specific measures identified are national Food for All Campaigns to mobilize all stakeholders at all levels of society and their resources in each country. At the same time, strong regional and international cooperation is called for to support national action, and all relevant international institutions are enjoined to play their part in coordinated efforts.

5. FAO, as the convenor of the Summit, has a crucial role in promoting follow-up at all levels, and in taking action directly in the areas of its mandate. Information on FAO activities will be made available separately to participants at the Specialized Inter-Parliamentary Conference, along with the analytical documents prepared for the Summit. Section A of this paper summarizes the arrangements made for intergovernmental tracking of progress towards achieving the Summit's objectives. Section B contains a note by the Secretariat on both recent developments in and global perspectives for food security.

A. MEASURING PROGRESS THROUGH THE COMMITTEE ON WORLD FOOD SECURITY

6. The critical role of monitoring the implementation of the Plan of Action was entrusted by the Summit to the FAO Committee on World Food Security (CFS). In Objective 7.3 of Commitment Seven of the Plan of Action governments, in partnership with all actors of civil society and in coordination with relevant international institutions, working through the Committee, undertook to:

  • establish a timetable, procedures and standardized reporting formats, and a process for developing targets and verifiable indicators;
  • ensure regular monitoring of progress at national, sub-regional, regional and international levels;
  • encourage the effective participation of relevant actors of civil society; and
  • undertake, by 2006, a major broad-based assessment of implementation of the Plan of Action, with a view to reviewing progress in achieving the target of reducing the number of undernourished people to half their present level no later than 2015.

7. The CFS has met twice since the Summit took place. At its session in April, 1997, it reviewed all aspects of the World Food Summit and its follow-up, submitted a report thereon through the FAO Council to the FAO Conference, and agreed on a provisional reporting procedure to be used in 1997, the first year of implementation.

First reports

8. At its June, 1998, session, the Committee reviewed a synthesis of reports on progress in the implementation of the World Food Summit Plan of Action, prepared by the FAO Secretariat on the basis of reports received from 68 countries and the European Commission, from 14 United Nations organizations, 13 international institutions and six regional bodies. (It was pointed out that 27 additional country reports had reached the Secretariat at the time of the session).

9. In the Secretariat paper it was noted that information received from reporting countries and institutions showed a universal commitment to implementing the Plan of Action in all its dimensions. This demonstrated the full recognition of the multifaceted character of food security as expressed in the Rome Declaration. Mechanisms had been put in place, where they did not exist, to promote, co-ordinate and monitor follow-up to the Summit.

10. On the other hand, it was not possible to draw general substantive conclusions on progress. Firstly, information provided in reports on policies and programmes for pursuing food security for all showed the predominance of continuing actions already in place at the time of the Summit. New actions undertaken or envisaged as a consequence of the Summit were documented as well; however, as a rule the results of these new actions could not be observed nor analyzed, as might be expected given that reports covered the year immediately following the Summit. Secondly, the broad but heterogeneous samples of country reports would not justify the drawing of general conclusions on the substance. In addition, and given the breadth of subjects addressed in the Plan of Action, all countries had, in varying degrees, been selective, and there was generally no possibility to build a complete panorama.

11. Many reporting countries had provided highlights of major issues and objectives in implementing the Plan of Action. Food insecurity, affecting large shares or specific groups of the population, was underlined by many developing countries, with frequent emphasis on the growing food deficit and/or instability of food production. Under- and mal-nutrition, affecting in particular children but also adults, was documented, even in cases where the general food security situation was satisfactory. Poverty was universally acknowledged as a major cause of food insecurity at the household level, and human development, mainly through education and health improvement, received much attention. Conflicts, insecurity, and disasters were also referred to.

12. Pursuing policies aimed at sound macroeconomic conditions and taking advantage of international trade were highlighted by several countries; sustainable development of agriculture and food production was widely considered an essential objective, often in connection with developing the agri-food sector. Intensification of production and diversification, particularly towards animal products and fish in certain cases, was sought. Productivity improvements benefiting the poor and environmental sustainability were emphasised, calling for research and technology dissemination, access to land, inputs and credit, improved land use and water mobilisation and control. In the food chain, marketing, food quality and safety, and improved processing were frequently cited concerns. Decentralisation, and developing rural infrastructure, were also repeatedly mentioned.

Conclusions of the Committee

13. The Committee on World Food Security commended the countries and the organizations which had submitted reports, but expressed concern that a large number of countries had not done so, and urged that they submit reports as soon as possible. It reiterated the importance of taking concerted efforts to implement the Plan of Action and emphasized that in future all countries should submit timely reports in order to provide a complete picture of progress.

14. The Committee agreed that on the basis of the reports provided it was difficult to draw general conclusions on the progress in the implementation of the Plan of Action in the context of the main Summit objective of reducing by half the number of undernourished between now and the year 2015. The need was stressed to refine the format to ensure that country reports provide the relevant information required for analysis of the actions being undertaken, and for identification of practices which had proven to be successful and those which were unsuccessful.

15. The Committee agreed that the Secretariat should develop an analytical framework for preparing future reports for consideration by the Committee, and assessing progress in the implementation of the Plan of Action. It was re-iterated that future reports should show the extent to which the world is moving towards or away from the target of reducing the number of the undernourished set by the Summit.

16. The Committee requested FAO, in the framework of the interagency exercise to develop Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems (FIVIMS), to develop a consistent set of indicators to be used for a more thorough and disaggregated analysis of food security, based on sets of comparable country data. The Committee expressed appreciation for the offer made by a number of countries to make data sets and studies available to the Secretariat for possible use in future monitoring.

17. Several members from developing countries emphasised the need for continued international technical and financial support to their efforts at implementing the Plan of Action. Many delegates, mainly from developing countries, mentioned the important role of the FAO Special Programme for Food Security and of South-South co-operation. In this connection a number of delegates emphasized the need for water harnessing and water harvesting, especially in Africa, in order to develop agriculture and to reduce poverty and food insecurity. Appreciation was expressed for the assistance extended by FAO to developing countries and countries in transition in formulating agricultural strategies to the year 2010.

18. The Committee noted that food should not be used as an instrument for political and economic pressure, and the necessity of refraining from unilateral measures not in accordance with the international law and the Charter of the United Nations and that endanger food security.

19. The Committee stressed the importance of close co-operation between FAO, the World Food Programme (WFP), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), and other international organizations as well as with bilateral co-coperation institutions in the efforts to implement the Plan of Action. In this connection, the Committee welcomed the operationalization of the Administrative Committee on Coordination (ACC) Network on Rural Development and Food Security established to promote information exchange and interactive networking between United Nations agencies at all levels, and cooperation at country level through thematic groups for rural development and food security established within the United Nations Resident Co-ordinator System.

20. The Committee was informed of action undertaken to implement Objective 7.4 relating to the right to adequate food and the fundamental right of everyone to be free from hunger. It expressed appreciation for the co-operation between the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCHR) and FAO on this important subject, and commended the Office of the UNHCHR for the consultation it had convened on the Right to Adequate Food, as a concrete and practical response to Objective 7.4, as well as for the general discussion on the normative content of the right to food, in the Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, and the FAO Secretariat for its contribution to both these meetings.

21. The Committee also noted that the Commission on Human Rights had endorsed the consultation's proposal of a follow-up meeting before the end of 1998 to pursue the discussions on the contents and means of implementation of the rights related to adequate food. The Committee further noted with appreciation that the Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights would be drafting a general comment as a contribution to the clarification of the content on the rights related to food in Article 11 of the Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights.

Future reporting arrangements

22. The Committee recognized that it had to undertake, as established by the Summit, a mid-term review in the year 2006 of the progress in reducing the number of the undernourished to half their 1996 level no later than 2015. It decided to start monitoring of implementation in the year 2000, and to undertake two full cycles of reviews before the mid-term review. The Committee agreed that for the monitoring cycles before the mid-term review, the first cluster of Commitments to be reviewed will consist of those relating to "people-centred" objectives, i.e. Commitments I, II and V, and the second cluster consist of those relating to "development-centred" objectives, i.e. Commitments III, IV and VI. The relevant parts of Commitment VII would be dealt with under each of the clusters as appropriate.

23. The Committee re-emphasized that it is the implementation of the Plan of Action that is vital, and pointed out that reporting is an instrument and not a goal. In this connection, it was stressed that while the responsibility for implementation is national, the responsibility for monitoring is at the international level. It was suggested that the CFS should use innovative approaches in setting its agenda, making use, inter alia, of contributions from the FAO technical committees and regional conferences and from other international institutions as well as NGOs and other partners in preparing thematic issues.

BOX
SPECIAL PROGRAMME FOR FOOD SECURITY (SPFS)

FAO's Special Programme for Food Security (SPFS) aims at assisting Low-Income and Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) to improve their national food security through rapid increases in productivity and food production, as well as through reducing year-to-year variability of production and improving access to food through a multi-disciplinary and participatory approach on an economically and environmentally sustainable basis. Increasing the net income of farmers, rural employment, social equity and gender sensitivity are at the core of SPFS. At September 21, 1998, the Special Programme for Food Security was operational in 36 LIFDCs - 20 in Africa, 10 in Asia and the Near East, 3 in Latin America, 2 in Europe, and 1 in Oceania. In 33 LIFDCs, the SPFS was in various stages of formulation. SPFS Implementation Strategy Implementation of the SPFS follows a phased approach, i.e. a Pilot Phase and an Expansion Phase. Every country, after the request to participate in the SPFS, engages itself to establish a National Plan of Action to achieve national food security and a Plan of Operations (POO), to be implemented within the country. This POO constitutes the Pilot Phase of the Special Programme, of a duration of usually two to three years.

A. Pilot Phase

The Pilot Phase is planned and implemented by the Governments and rural communities concerned through the mobilization and training of local personnel and the supply of seeds, tools and equipment within the framework of people's participation and gender-sensitive activities.Technical and financial assistance is provided by national and international sources. This phase has four components:

  • Small-scale water harvesting, irrigation and drainage systems using rainfall, water runoff, small streams, groundwater, etc.; and agricultural land development to secure production against the vagaries of climate.

  • Intensification of sustainable plant production systems with the transfer of adequate technologies accessible to all.

  • Diversification of production, including aquaculture, artisanal fisheries, small animal (poultry, sheep, goats, pigs, etc.) production and tree crops.

  • Analysis of constraints to food security. Special attention is given to the analysis of socio-economic constraints to the extension of the pilot phase, by gender and by specific groups. The results obtained, including costs and returns to producers, at each site for each season, are quantified and analyzed to reorient operations and to provide a firm analytic basis for implementation in additional sites or for the preparation of the expansion phase of the Programme.

B. Expansion Phase

The Expansion Phase comprises the following components: 1) a food security and agricultural sector policy programme, to lift macro-level socio-economic constraints and provide an environment favourable to agricultural production, processing, marketing trade and access to food; 2) an agricultural investment component of three years, adjusted annually to overcome the physical constraints, including infrastructure, and to increase the private and public financing of agricultural activities and services, and the preparation of feasibility studies of bankable projects.

Selected results and achievements

Eritrea - Results during the 1996 crop season indicated that yields more than doubled compared to local varieties grown on neighbouring farms. The number of farmers' participating in the programme doubled compared to the previous year.

Ethiopia - Yields of teff, sorghum and wheat on demonstration farms during the 1997 cropping season were nearly double those of the control farmers. Cost-benefit analysis indicated that the value-cost ratio ranged from 2.2 to 2.5. The experience obtained from the SPFS was incorporated into the Government's extension package for its dry land production programme covering around 10,000 farmers.

China - Grain yields are calculated to have increased over 60% between 1994 and 1997. Annual per capita farmer's income more than doubled since improvement work was initiated in 1994, increasing from an average of 667 Yuan during the period 1992-94 to 1,277 Yuan in 1997. Over 650,000 farmers were trained.

Nepal - The area under irrigation increased from 10 to 42 percent and cropping intensity increased by 30 to 60 percent in 19 pilot sites growing a wide range of food crops. On-farm water management techniques and strengthened water user groups introduced in both Hill and Terai districts were effective in improving farmers' knowledge and application of efficient water use. The area under perennial irrigation increased by 15 percent in one season. Yields of wheat increased on average by 70 percent while rice yields by about 45 percent. The economic internal rate of return was calculated to vary from 47 to 89percent

Tanzania - Data for the 1996 season for SPFS pilot sites indicated yield increases for rice of 50 to 130 percent and for maize production of 118 to 165 percent in comparison to pre-SPFS yields. Livestock activities also carried out as part of the SPFS included improved chicken and goat husbandry methods and vaccination of over 14 000 chickens against Newcastle disease. Farmers' groups were strengthened.

South-South cooperation

The South-South cooperation initiative was launched by FAO in 1996 within the framework of the SPFS. Its objective is to allow the recipient countries to benefit from the experience and expertise of more advanced developing countries. The South-South cooperation approach is for the more advanced developing countries to agree to send field technicians and experts to specific recipient countries for 2 to 3 years, to work directly with rural communities of farmers involved in the Special Programme. The number of experts required is determined on a case-by-case basis, but must be sufficient to achieve a critical mass (about 100), with site coverage sufficient to represent all regions of the country. The experts and technicians are fielded in a phased manner as per requirements over the 2 to 3 year-duration mentioned above. The South-South cooperation initiative has gained a considerable momentum, and at this stage over 20 advanced developing countries have already expresses their intention to provide experts and field technicians to LIFDCs, as per the terms and conditions of such a cooperation. A South-South cooperation has been operational in Senegal since November 1996, with 61 Vietnamese experts and field technicians already working directly with the Senegalese farmers in the rural communities involved in the SPFS. Similar agreements were recently signed between China and Ethiopia and India and Eritrea. Likewise, agreements are expected to be signed soon between Morocco/Niger, Morocco/Burkina Faso, Bangladesh/Gambia, China/Mali and China/Mauritania. Moreover, South-South cooperation agreements between Egypt/Tanzania and Viet Nam/Benin are under formulation. Collaboration with International Development Partners The SPFS is a nationally-owned programme, prepared and implemented under the direct responsibility of each national government, with the technical assistance of FAO and the financial support (besides that from FAO) of bilateral and multilateral donors, development banks and other financing institutions, as well as NGOs and the private sector.

B. WORLD FOOD SECURITY TODAY AND TOMORROW

Recent developments

24. The total number of chronically undernourished people in developing countries is now estimated at 828 million for the 1994-96 period (Table 1). This figure represents a slight decline in the proportion of undernourished since the early 1990s, but also a slight increase in the number of undernourished because of the growth in total population and the changes in age composition which lead to changes in minimum requirements.


TABLE 1
Proportion and numbers of undernourished in developing countries, by region, 1992-94 and 1994-96


Region

Percent undernourished
Number undernourished (millions)



1990-92
1994-96
1990-92
1994-96

Africa, south of the Sahara

40
39
196
211

Near East and North Africa

11
12
34
42

East and South East Asia

17
15
289
258

South Asia

21
21
237
254

Latin America / Caribbean

15
13
64
63

All developing country regions

20
19
822
828


Source: FAO.

Note: Numbers do not add up to total due to omission of Oceania.


25. The table above confirms that the largest absolute numbers of undernourished people are in Asia, while the largest proportion of the population that is undernourished is in Africa south of the Sahara. The recent trends give no room for complacency, as progress in some regions was more than offset by deterioration in others. It has repeatedly been stated that these numbers are unacceptably high and must be drastically reduced. The World Food Summit Plan of Action is being implemented with the aim of cutting by half the total numbers of undernourished no later than 2015.

26. Per caput dietary energy supply (DES), the most important single indicator underlying estimates of food adequacy levels, measures the food available to each person on average in a country. It is measured in kilocalories per day. Analysis of the average DES by country reveals significant variations within regions that are hidden by the regional aggregation in Table 1. Countries with inadequate food supply, which are also generally those with higher proportions of undernourished people, are heavily concentrated in Africa south of the Sahara, with a relatively high number also in South and Southeast Asia.

27. An analysis of changes in undernourishment in individual countries from 1990-92 to 1994-96 shows that the percentage of undernourished declined in the majority of countries in all regions, while a few countries experienced substantial increases due to exceptional circumstances in the early 1990s.

28. In Africa south of the Sahara almost half of the countries experienced increases in the proportion of undernourished between 1990-92 and 1994-96. Also, in many countries which have quickly growing populations, even a lower proportion of undernourished translates into higher absolute numbers. 

29. Both in Asia and in the Near East and North Africa, more than two-thirds of the countries achieved decreasing undernourishment in percentage terms between 1990-92 and 1994-96. 21 out of 24 countries in the Latin America and the Caribbean region reduced the proportion of undernourished during the same period.

30. One important aspect of undernourishment is its close association with the people's financial capacity to purchase food. As expected, countries with higher per caput income are those with higher DES levels and lower proportions of undernourished in their populations. Of particular concern is the fact that, when seen in a longer-term perspective (based on data for the three time periods 1969-71, 1990-92 and 1994-96) and contrary to the overall tendency in the developing countries as a whole, the poorer groups of countries have not experienced any decline in the numbers and percentage of undernourished.

31. The overall economic situation has vastly improved in a large number of developing countries in recent years, but the effects of the financial crisis that initially affected Asia threaten to bring this favourable period to an end. Indeed, the crisis has already caused deeply depressed economic situations in many countries and threatens to deepen and spread. A global recession would inevitably translate into greater food insecurity for millions of people, through its negative effects on household incomes, employment and prospects for agricultural production and trade. An economic crisis would also undermine governments' financial capacity to support agricultural and rural development and negatively affect the environment for international assistance.

Global perspectives for world food security: Looking to 2015

32. FAO is currently in the process of taking a fresh look at the long-term assessment of its Agriculture: Towards 2010 (AT2010) study, mainly in order to better evaluate the prospects for progress towards the World Food Summit (WFS) target. For this reason, the time horizon of the analysis is being extended to 2015. It is too early to report in detail on this new assessment, but preliminary findings suggest that the broad dimensions of the major food and agriculture variables would not be very different from those depicted in AT2010 and in the technical documentation prepared for the WFS. 

33. In spite of unprecedented progress in technical and economic potential, the close of this century witnesses a continuing slowdown in the growth of world agricultural production while hundreds of millions of people, in particular children, continue to be chronically hungry and malnourished. The coincidence-incidence of these two tendencies does not, in any way, reflect a lack of capacity of the world as a whole to produce the additional food required to eliminate undernutrition. Rather, the persistence of hunger is due to development failures. In many low-income countries with high dependence on agriculture, this includes in particular lack of promotion of local food production and rural development. With appropriate policy reforms and institutional adjustments and with due attention to social equity, incentives can and should be provided to stimulate innovations and investments towards a sustainable path of agricultural development which would ultimately provide enough food for all. What are the prospects that progress may be made during the next 10 to 15 years? 

Insufficient improvements in average food and nutrition indicators

34. Population growth is the main determining factor for growth in aggregate food demand. The absolute annual additions to world population, which peaked at nearly 90 million persons in the second half of the 1980s, are now slowly declining, and are at present about 80 million, over 90 percent of which are in the developing countries. In parallel, the latest World Bank assessment of economic growth prospects indicates some improvement in the overall outlook of the developing countries for the next decade, though with considerable differences between countries. These prospects indicate that further improvements may be expected in the average food and nutrition indicators for the world including the developing countries as a whole, but also that the food insecurity and undernutrition problems will persist (possibly at slightly attenuated levels) in many countries.

35. Per caput food availability, in the developing countries as a whole, is expected to increase. The incidence of undernutrition in the developing countries may decline in relative terms (as a percentage of population) but, given population growth, and expected changes in population composition, if past trends continue there would be only modest declines in the numbers of undernourished from the current level of over 800 million persons. High rates of undernutrition may persist in sub-Saharan Africa, and be somewhat reduced in South Asia. Therefore, the efficiency of policies to address the issue of poverty and promote sustainable livelihoods among the vulnerable groups will be a major determining factor in the fight against undernutrition. 

Local production as main source of food in developing countries, but imports also expected to rise

36. To meet the growth in effective (i.e. as expressed in the marketplace) food demand, world agricultural production will have to grow at an annual rate of approximately 1.8 percent. Local production will be by far the main source of the increases in the total food supplies of the developing countries. For many of them, agricultural and rural development is not only essential in generating food supplies, but also to the livelihood of large numbers of rural people.

37. Nevertheless, net food imports of developing countries are expected to continue to grow. Net imports of cereals may grow from the 100 to110 million tons of recent years to more than 160 million tons by 2010 and increase further thereafter. Part of these food imports would have to be supplied as food aid.

38. The rest of the world (mainly the major exporting OECD countries) should face no major constraints in generating these additional exports of cereals (and of livestock products), given that (a) their own demand will grow very slowly in volume, and (b) part of the additional exports to developing countries will probably be offset by strongly declining exports to Eastern Europe and countries of the former USSR. This latter region will probably become a modest net exporter of cereals.

39. The group of developing countries (as currently defined) could in the longer term turn from being a net exporter of agricultural primary products into a net importer, with the consequence that they will have to pay for their food imports partly with earnings from exports of non-agricultural goods and services and higher value-added agricultural products.

40. Regarding world market prices for agricultural products, and cereals in particular, there are reasons to expect that the secular decline, in real terms, may not continue in the medium term. There will be less downward pressure on prices as the Uruguay Round Agreements are implemented leading to declining structural surpluses and lesser distorting support to agricultural production and trade. There is also an expectation that lower public stock holdings, together with geographical shifts in global stocks, may enhance the risk of higher volatility in world market prices and of reduced availabilities for food aid.

Sustainable intensification as main source of production growth

41. It is expected that about four-fifths of the projected crop production increases in developing countries will come from intensification of agricultural production with two-thirds in the form of higher yields and the remainder as a result of increased cropping intensity (more multiple cropping, shorter fallows), particularly in countries with appropriate agro-ecological environments and little or no potential to expand land in cultivation. Achievement of this yield growth depends on high priority being accorded to investment in primary agriculture and in agricultural research and extension, making a wide range of modern technologies accessible.

42. Some of the environmental and sustainability implications of the foreseen increase and intensification of agriculture are that (a) the limited agricultural land expansion need not be associated with the rapid rates of tropical deforestation observed in the past provided sustainable land use is achieved; (b) water is rapidly becoming a severe limiting factor and policies need to be introduced for effective water management, including increasing the cost to users; (c) there will be further increases in the use of agrochemicals (fertilizer, pesticides) in developing countries, though at declining rates compared with the past; and, (d) safe use of external inputs (fertilizer, pesticides and improved varieties) is indispensable for sustainable agriculture.

43. The achievement of sustainable agricultural and rural development will be critically dependent on the concerted application of a combination of appropriate policy instruments. Considerable potential exists for the efficient use of existing, and the development of new, technologies for sustainable intensification of production. With appropriate incentives that induce innovations and investments towards the full use of this potential, it should be possible to keep any trade-offs between food production growth and protection of the environment to a minimum.

Halving the number of undernourished no later than 2015 - the major challenge

44. The paragraphs above present the "most likely outcome." However, one of the major factors which it is possible to influence, and which may cause future developments to be different, would be the successful implementation of the Plan of Action adopted at the World Food Summit, which foresees achievement of the target of halving the number of hungry by no later than 2015. Present trends point to a further reduction, but not a halving, of the number of chronically undernourished by that year. Hence, a major effort will have to be made if the Summit target is to be achieved. Globally, the additional amounts of food to be produced and traded would be minor. The objective is also feasible at the national level in many countries provided that those countries experiencing widespread undernutrition accord high priority to their agricultural development and engage in a much more rigorous policy effort to enhance the access of the poor to income earning opportunities. It is also estimated that investment in agriculture in these countries should be 20 to 30 percent above what it would otherwise be.

45. Preliminary analysis suggests that, even assuming exceptionally high rates of income and demand growth as well as feasible combinations of domestic production and imports, meeting the WFS target will be extremely difficult for many countries. Typically, such countries currently have high population growth rates (over 2.0 % p.a.), low per caput calorie availability (less than 2000 Kcal per day), and a rather unequal distribution of food consumption. Efforts to overcome inequities of access to food through a broad range of poverty alleviation measures, including better access to means of production and employment, will represent a key policy problem for these countries if they are to achieve the WFS target.

46. To conclude, the world food security situation seems, by and large, to be developing along the lines of slow and uneven progress as foreseen in the FAO technical documentation for the WFS. In practice, and as far as can be determined so soon after the WFS, progress is not yet being made at anywhere near the rates required for meeting the WFS target. Unless major efforts are made to improve food supplies as well as to overcome inequities, some countries may still have an incidence of undernutrition ranging from 15 to 30 percent of their populations. It was precisely this kind of outlook, particularly the realization that undernutrition would decline at too slow a rate, that fuelled the WFS debate which led to the adoption of the target of halving undernutrition by 2015.

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