FAO's activities in relation to the 1997/98 El Niño

Since mid-1997 FAO has been intensively monitoring and alerting the international community of the impact on agriculture, forestry and fisheries of serious weather anomalies around the world which are believed to be affected by the current El Niño phenomenon. In several parts of the world severe weather disturbances have already had far reaching repercussions on national crop production, food supply situation, livestock, fisheries and forestry.

FAO has undertaken a number of measures to ensure that the international community is kept continually informed of developments related to El Niño and the possible impact it could have on global, national and household food security. The Organization works in close collaboration with governments, donors, NGOs and other humanitarian agencies to alleviate the adverse effects of weather anomalies associated with El Niño.

FAO'S ROLE IN MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF EL NIÑO

FAO continues to be actively involved in helping countries to prepare for and respond to the adverse impact of El Niño. In a number of countries the Organisation has increased awareness among Governments of weather hazards to allow more location specific impact scenarios to be developed. It has also strengthened ongoing development activities that have an additional preventative relevance in the light of current and future weather anomalies and El Niño. Examples of measures promoted by FAO include:

• support to well construction and small-scale irrigation development programmes in Southern Africa and Central America;
• development of drought and cyclone-resistant cropping patterns and farming and fishing practices for South Asia, the Sahel, eastern and southern Africa and the Caribbean;
• support for the preparation of a disaster preparedness strategy for the member countries of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in Eastern Africa;
• provision of information and direct assistance to member countries on appropriate forestry policy and planning, forest management and land use decision making, environmentally sound logging, fire control, etc.;
• support to flood prevention through integrated watershed development programmes in eroded, mountainous regions, and support for the design and management of strategic food security reserves.

Specific country, regional and global level activities include:

Crop and Food Supply Monitoring

Since the onset of the current El Niño, FAO through its Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), has intensified the monitoring of weather developments and crop prospects in all parts of the world. The System has issued several special reports on the impact of El Niño on crop production in Latin America, Asia and Africa. FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions were fielded in March 1998 to Indonesia, which has been seriously affected by drought and in April 1998 to Angola, Mozambique and Zambia, where localized crop losses were caused by weather anomalies.

On 23 April 1998 the Director-General of FAO approved jointly with the Executive Director of WFP an Emergency Operation for US$ 88 million for 4.6 million most affected people in Indonesia.

For Central America, FAO assisted the Regional Unit for Technical Assistance (RUTA) in the evaluation of crop losses caused by El Niño in the sub-region.

Emergency Agricultural Rehabilitation

Since the onset of El Niño induced disasters, FAO's Special Relief Operations Service (TCOR) has fielded a number of missions to countries affected by serious weather anomalies in Central America, Eastern Africa, Asia and the Pacific Rim, to assess needs for essential agricultural inputs to restore production as well as immediate rehabilitation and preparedness interventions.

For the period April 1997-April 1998 floods were reported in 41 countries, drought/dry spell in 22 countries and major forest fires in two countries (Indonesia and Brazil). In all cases FAO liaised with its country offices to obtain necessary assessment of situation and needs. The most recent assessment of the need was carried out in Indonesia where FAO estimated emergency input requirements at US$18 million. Donors were approached for funding of immediate remedial measures when necessary, and on the basis of the magnitude of the disaster and expressed needs for international assistance. Emergency interventions following El Nino induced disasters are currently being carried out in several countries.

Impact on Livestock

El Niño-related drought has had a considerable impact in Asia, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines, which may trigger above normal livestock slaughter, with depressing effects on prices. Reduced output of feed grains due to drought, coupled with severe foreign exchange constraints, might also result in a downsizing of the intensive poultry and pig industries.

Apart from direct livestock losses due to heavy, unseasonable and heavy rainfall and floods attributed to the current El Niño in Eastern Africa (notably Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia), they also provided ideal conditions for breeding of insect vectors of animal and human diseases. The most serious consequences of this has been an epidemic of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) across most parts of Kenya and Somalia, which has resulted in extensive death and illness. Large parts of neighbouring Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, southern Sudan and southern Ethiopia also remain at serious risk of the epidemic. Livestock disease and loss, will inevitably result in a fall in food security and the welfare and incomes of large numbers of people dependent on livestock and livestock products. In addition, direct trade will also be affected as some important markets have placed embargoes on these products due to fears of RVF infection.

Impact on Forests and Natural Vegetation

One of the greatest El Niño-related threats to forests and natural vegetation is the increased risk of wildfires, due to drought conditions. Drought raises the flammability of vegetation, increasing the number of fires, the area burned and the intensity of burning.

Forest fires in critical watershed areas may have significant effect upon agricultural production on lands downstream. Given the link between forests and food security, the increased risk of wildfires and resulting forest damage associated with El Niño has a potential impact upon national and household food security.

Forest fires have a direct effect on the emission of greenhouse gas by increasing CO2 concentration thus contributiong to global warming. Fires also reduce biological diversity, destroy wood and other forest commodities and emit smoke harmful to human health and inhibiting air traffic, etc.

Specific FAO activities on the sector include:

• Monitoring the global situation with respect to forest fires
• Preparation of a Consultation on Public Policies Affecting Forest Fires, scheduled for October 1998 at FAO, Rome. Agenda of the Consultation will include: Four regional studies analyzing the main socio-political causes of forest fires and on measures/actions required to prevent and reduce their impacts, prepared by identified Resource Persons, in collaboration with experts from the regions concerned. Regions proposed to be covered: the Americas/Caribbean; Asia/Pacific; Africa; the Mediterranean);
• A study to identify better means to integrate national and global policies for fire prevention i.e. early warning about adverse weather patterns such as El Niño that have direct implication on prevailing environmental conditions which exacerbate fires;
• Collaboration with UNEP and other international agencies concerned with emergency response to forest fires;
• Long-standing provision of technical information on training on forest fire prevention and control.

Impact on Fisheries

The area off the western South America is one of the major upwelling regions of the globe, producing 12 to 20 percent of world total fish landings. This is one of the areas being most severely affected by the current El Niño event. Rising coastal sea temperatures and weakening in the upwelling process has caused severe decline in biomass and total production of small shoaling pelagics, which are otherwise readily available in the area, particularly off Ecuador, Peru and Chile. Stocks of Peruvian anchoveta have declined off Peru and Chile and are bound to diminish further before the end of the current event. Recruitment failure with at least two consecutive year classes being much lower than "normal", poor somatic growth and a possible increase in fishing and natural mortality are the main direct causes for this decline. The recovery in stocks of Peruvian anchoveta towards the end of the year and in future years depends largely on how the environmental conditions will change and how fisheries are managed. In the same area, as important sardine stocks were already declining long before recent events, prospects of a recovery are likely to have deteriorated due to the 1997-98 El Niño. Catches of horse mackerel are also much lower than in previous years, particularly affecting fishing off Chile. This is mostly due to an off-shore and polarward displacement of existing concentrations. Catches of other small and mid size pelagics and coastal demersals are also being affected throughout the eastern Pacific.

Although the current El Niño has resulted in a reduction in landings of abundant and common fish species and reduced shrimp culture activities due to heavy rain and flooding in some areas, catches of other more tropical pelagic species such as dolphin fish, tropical sharks and tunas have increased. In addition, total production of some wild shrimp stocks and shellfishes are also increasing due to warmer temperatures in the area.

FAO continues to monitor the situation on a regional and global basis, and has been in contact with the CPPS (the "Comision Permanente del Pacifico Sur", a regional body covering the SE Pacific, the area most severely hit by El Niño) regarding the possibility of supporting or co-sponsoring an International meeting on current El Niño to be organized by them in Guayaquil, Ecuador, in November 1998.

REPORTS ISSUED BY FAO ON EL NIÑO

The impact of El Niño on Crop Production in Latin America: GIEWS Special Reports August and November 1997

The Impact of El Niño and other Weather Anomalies on Crop Production in Asia: GIEWS Special Report September 1997

Special Features on the impact of El Niño on Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry in Food Outlook November/December 1997.

The impact of El Niño and other Weather Anomalies on Crop Production in Southern Africa: GIEWS Special Report November 1997.

El Niño Southern Oscillation Primer (ENSO): by SDRN, FIRM and SADC February 1998.

Heavy rains attributed to El Niño cause extensive crop damage in parts of Eastern Africa: GIEWS Special Report, 5 February 1998.

The continuing impact of El Niño on crop production in Latin America: GIEWS Special Report 9 February 1998.

Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Indonesia: FAO/WFP Special Report, 17 April 1998.

Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Angola: FAO/WFP Special Report.

Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Mozambique: FAO/WFP Special Report (to be issued in late May 1998.

Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Zambia: FAO/WFP Special Report (to be issued in late May 1998).

AWARENESS BRIEFINGS ORGANISED/ PARTICIPATED IN BY FAO ON EL NIÑO

Briefing of Permanent Representatives to FAO: 17 October 1997

FAO press briefing: 5 November 1997

Briefing for Conference Delegates: 11 November 1997

FAO participation in the Inter Agency Task Force on El Niño convened by IDNDR: 18 November 1997.

First SARCOF meeting held in Zimbabwe, 8-12 September 1997 FAO/WFP meetings with the EU and USAID on contingency planning for El Niño related drought in Southern Africa, 6 December 1997.

FAO also provided invaluable information on the current El Niño phenomenon to the international community through a number of radio and media interviews.

For more information, please contact:
Abdur Rashid, Chief, Global Information and Early Warning Service FAO,
Telex 610181 FAO I; Fax: 0039-6-5705-4495,
E-Mail (INTERNET): GIEWS1@FAO.ORG 

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