Pakistan
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Geography, climate and populationGeography Pakistan, with a total area of 796 100 km2, is located in Southern Asia (Table 1). It is bordered by India in the east, China in the north-east, Afghanistan in the north and north-west, Iran in the south-west and the Arabian Sea to the south. Pakistan is divided into four provinces, namely the Punjab, Sindh, North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Balochistan. The geography of Pakistan is a profound blend of landscapes varying from plains to deserts, forests, hills and plateaus and ranging from coastal areas of Arabian Sea in the south to the mountains of the Karakoram Range in the north. Pakistan geologically overlaps both with the Indian and the Eurasian tectonic plates where its Sindh and Punjab provinces lie on the northwestern corner of the Indian plate, while Balochistan and most of the NWFP lie within the Eurasian plate which mainly comprises the Iranian plateau, some parts of the Middle East and Central Asia. Pakistan is divided into four broad geographic areas:
The major land use is agriculture and rangelands. In 2008, the total cultivated area was estimated at 21.2 million hectares of which 21.3 million ha (96 percent) consisted of annual crops and 0.9 million ha (4 percent) consisted of permanent crops. Climate Pakistan lies in the subtropical arid zone and most of the country is subjected to a semi-arid climate. Based on physiographic factors and causes of diversity in climate, the country has been classified into four major climatic regions: i) the marine tropical coastland; ii) the sub-tropical continental lowlands; iii) the sub-tropical continental highlands; and iv) the sub-tropical continental plateau (ADB, 2003). Water will remain a critical and limiting resource for sustained economic development of the country. Linked to water and based on physiography, Pakistan has been divided into ten agro-ecological zones in 1980, which are still valid as broad regions: i) Indus Delta; ii) southern irrigated plain; iii) sandy desert; iv) northern irrigated plains; v) Barani (rainfed) areas; vi) wet mountains; viii) western dry mountains; ix) dry western plateau; and x) Sulaiman Piedmont (Ahmad, 2004a). June is the hottest month in the plains and July in the mountainous areas, with temperatures over 38°C, while the mean monthly minimum is only 4°C in December/January. Average annual precipitation is estimated at 494 mm, but is uneven over the country. It varies from less than 100 mm in parts of Balochistan and Sindh provinces to more than 1 500 mm in the foothills and northern mountains of Punjab and NWFP. The mean Rabi season rainfall (October to March) varies from less than 50 mm in parts of Sindh province to more than 500 mm in the NWFP. The mean Kharif season rainfall (April to September) varies from less than 50 mm in parts of Balochistan to more than 800 mm in the northern Punjab and NWFP. About 60 percent of the rainfall in the monsoonal climate is received during July to September. The extreme variability in seasonal rainfall has direct impacts on river flows which have rather larger variability during the Rabi and the Kharif seasons. In the northern areas, at altitudes of more than 5 000 m, snowfall exceeds 5 000 mm/year and provides the largest resource of water in the glaciated zone. Around 92 percent of the country’s area is classified as semi-arid to arid, facing extreme shortage of precipitation. Most of the irrigated area is classified as semi-arid to arid in climate. The reference crop evapotranspiration varies from 1 150 to 1 800 mm/year (Ahmad, 2008a). Population In 2008, the total population is 177 million, of which around 64 percent is rural (Table 1). Average population density is 222 inhabitants per km2, but the population is mainly concentrated in the Indus plain. The population density in the Balochistan Plateau is extremely low due to mountainous terrain and scarcity of water. Average annual population growth during the period 1998-2008 is estimated at about 2.3 percent. In 2008, access to improved drinking water sources reached 90 percent (95 and 87 percent for the urban and rural population respectively). Sanitation coverage was 45 percent (72 and 29 percent for urban and rural population respectively). Economy, agriculture and food securityIn 2009, GDP was US$161 990 million of which agriculture accounted for 22 percent (Table 1). In 2008, the total population economically active in agriculture is estimated at 24.9 million inhabitants, amounting to 40 percent of the economically active population. About 28 percent of the population economically active in agriculture is female and 72 percent is male. The roles of men and women are sharply defined in the society, but women are actively involved in farming practices. Women are largely responsible for livestock production and maintenance, picking cotton, transplanting rice, harvesting and threshing other crops. In 2007, the overall unemployment rate of the country is 5.2 percent of the total labour force, out of which 4.7 percent of rural labor force and 6.3 percent of urban labour force is unemployed. There is an increase in severely food insecure people, from 23 percent in 2005-06 to 28 percent in 2008. Food security in 2007-08 had significantly worsened as a result of food price hike. Total number of households falling into this category in 2008 was estimated to be 7 million, which is equal to about 45 million people. In relative terms, the increase is more pronounced in rural areas, where food expenditure rose by 10 percent and total expenditure by 4 percent (GoP, 2008b). Exports of food group account for 13.2 percent of total exports, or US$2 050 million. It contributes 26.1 percent to the overall export growth. Within the food group rice, accounting for 60 percent, has registered an impressive growth of 28.5 percent. Pakistan clearly benefited from the unprecedented rise in the international price of rice. Since Pakistan is a net exporter of rice, it is likely to benefit from the elevated international price of rice in coming years. This will also encourage farmers in Pakistan to grow more rice and benefit from the current hike in the international price of rice. Other important components of the food group, which registered impressive growth, include fruits, oilseeds, nuts and kernels, meat and fish. Within the food group, more than 67 percent increase of imports is attributed to wheat alone, followed by 47 percent from edible oil (GoP, 2008a; GoP, 2008b). Water resources and useWater resources Pakistan can be divided into three hydrological units:
The river basins outside the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS), the Makran coast and the Karan closed basin, are flashy in nature and do not have a perennial supply. They account for a total flow inferior to 5 km3 per year. The long-term average annual precipitation for Pakistan is 494 mm, representing 393.273 km3 (Table 2). Precipitation in 2008 was 278 mm. Internally produced surface water is 47.4 km3/year, whereas internally generated groundwater is 55.0 km3/year. Taking into account the overlap between surface water and groundwater, the internal renewable water resources are estimated at 55 km3/year, which equals the total amount of groundwater resources. Some of the groundwater drains directly into the sea, while the rest feeds the base flow of the river system which is estimated at 47.4 km3/year. Glacier melt, snowmelt, rainfall and runoff constitute the river flows. The Indus basin has a total drainage area of 1.06 million km2, of which 56 percent lies in Pakistan, and the other 44 percent in China, Afghanistan and India. Because of the importance of irrigation in the Indus plain, the water balance of the Indus basin has been carefully studied, which is not the case for the other basins. Therefore most of the results found refer only to the Indus basin. The mean annual inflow into the country through the western rivers (the Indus, including the Kabul tributary, the Jhelum and the Chenab) amounted to 170.27 km3. The mean annual natural inflow into the country through the eastern rivers (the Ravi, the Beas and the Sutlej) is estimated at 11.1 km3, but this is reserved for India, according to the 1960 Indus Water Treaty. Given the seasonal nature of the Himalayan runoff, roughly 85 percent of the annual flows are in the Kharif season (summer), and only 15 percent in the Rabi season (winter). The Indus Basin has a large groundwater aquifer covering a gross command area of 16.2 million ha. In 2005, total dam capacity is estimated at 23.36 km3 (Table 2). Currently, there are 3 large hydropower dams and 50 smaller dams (but with a height of more than 15 m) in the country, while 11 smaller dams are under construction. The designed live storage capacity of the 3 large hydropower dams in the Indus basin is 22.98 km3 (Tarbela 11.96 km3, Raised Mangla 10.15 km3, which includes recent raising of 3.58 km3, and Chashma 0.87 km3). The current live storage capacity of these 3 large hydropower dams is 17.89 km3, representing an overall loss of storage of 22 percent (WB, 2005). Pakistan can barely store 30 days of water in the IBIS. Each km3 of storage capacity lost means one km3/year less water that can be supplied with a given level of reliability. There is an urgent need for storage just to replace capacity that has been lost due to sedimentation. Given the high silt loads from the young Himalayas, two large reservoirs are silting rapidly. In 2008, due to the raising of the Mangla dam, the loss due to sedimentation was recovered (WB, 2005). The designed live storage capacity of 50 small dams is 0.383 km3. The information related to sedimentation and loss of live storage of small dams is not available. Therefore, it was assumed that on an average 25 percent of the live storage of these small dams have been lost due to sedimentation, leading to a current live storage capacity of these small dams of 0.287 km3. There are more than 1 600 mini dams (with a height of less than 15m), which were constructed for small-scale irrigation purposes, but the capacity of these mini dams is very little as a mini dam is normally constructed for an individual farmer. The information on the live storage capacity of mini dams is not available and it is also negligible compared to small dams. According to certain estimates, the total designed capacity of these mini dams would be in the order of 0.036 km3. Pakistan has a hydroelectric potential of about 50 000 MW, when the whole of Chitral as well as Skardu gorges are comprehensively assessed. The Indus River and its tributaries are the main source of water. Its main gorge, between the Skardu and Tarbela, has a potential of almost 30 000 MW. These include Bashan (4 500 MW), Disso (3 700 MW), Banjo (5 200 MW), Thicket (1 043 MW), Paten (1 172 MW), Racicot (670 MW), Yuba (710 MW), Hugo (1 000 MW), Tunas (625), and Sakardu or Kithara (possibly 4 000 to 15 000 MW). Almost 20 000 MW potential is available on various sites on the rivers: Swat, Jhelum, Neelam, Punch and Kumar (Qazilbash, 2005). In 2000, total wastewater produced was estimated at 12.33 km3 while treated wastewater was estimated at 0.145 km3. Water use In 2008, total water withdrawal is estimated at 183.4 km3, of which surface water withdrawal accounts for 121.8 km3 (66.4 percent) and groundwater withdrawal accounts for 61.6 km3 (33.6 percent). This refers to the IBIS mainly, the withdrawal outside the IBIS being extremely small (GoP, 2008a) (Table 2 and Figure 1). In 2008, water withdrawal by agriculture is estimated at 172.4, or 94 percent of the total water withdrawal. Municipal and industrial water withdrawal are estimated at 9.7 km3 and 1.4 km3, respectively (Figure 2) (GoP, 2008a; Zakria, 2000). Most summer rains are not available for crop production or recharge to groundwater because of rapid runoff of torrential showers. The overall irrigation efficiency in the IBIS is 40 percent (canal efficiency 75 percent, conveyance efficiency 70 percent and field application efficiency 75 percent). The water lost during conveyance and application largely contributes towards recharging groundwater. In some areas, development appears to have reached the point where groundwater is being mined. Most urban and rural water is supplied from groundwater. Over 50 percent of the village water supply is obtained through hand pumps installed by private households. In saline groundwater areas, irrigation canals are the main source of municipal water. Groundwater is pumped using electricity and diesel fuels. There are currently one million tubewells in the country, of which 87 percent are operated by diesel. Power failures, extended load shedding and poor supply of electricity are the major reasons for slow growth of electric tubewells compared to the diesel-operated tubewells (Ahmad, 2008b). Information on the use of treated wastewater and desalinated water is not available, it is however a minor fraction of the total. Sewage water from urban areas is used by farmers in the peri-urban areas for raising fodders and vegetables. Farmers are also reusing the drainage water during the periods of water scarcity for supplementing canal water supplies, but data are not available. International water issues Under the Indus Water Treaty (1960) between India and Pakistan, all water of the eastern rivers, i.e. the Sutlej, Beas and Ravi rivers taken together, shall be available for the unrestricted use of India. The three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) and all water while flowing in Pakistan of any tributary, which in its natural course joins the Sutlej main or the Ravi main after these rivers have crossed into Pakistan, shall be available for the unrestricted use of Pakistan. This flow reserved by treaty is estimated at 11.1 km3/year. As well, there is a development potential to compensate for the perpetual loss of the eastern waters. This Treaty helped to resolve the issues between the two countries and allowed Pakistan to have large investments in the Indus Basin Project (IBP) during 1960s to construct a network of canals and barrages to divert waters of the western rivers to the command of the eastern rivers as replacement works. However, in the last few years Pakistan had objected India for the developments of hydropower projects on the western rivers, Chenab and Jhelum. Irrigation and drainage developmentEvolution of irrigation development Considering land and water resources, the irrigation potential is estimated to be equal to the cultivable area, or 21.3 million ha. In 2008, the area equipped for irrigation in Pakistan is estimated at 19.99 million ha (against 15.73 million ha in 1990). The total water managed area in Pakistan is estimated at 21.20 million ha (against 16.96 million ha in 1990), and can be divided according to the following classification (Table 3):
Apart form these water managed areas, some attempts have been made to develop water harvesting, which is known in Pakistan as Khushkaba, though it is not possible to quantify this area. In 2008, out of the 19.27 million ha of full control irrigation schemes, 6.91 million ha are commanded by surface water (canals), 4.13 million ha are commanded by groundwater (wells, tubewells), whereas 7.96 million ha are commanded by both surface water and groundwater. Only 0.27 million ha are commanded by non-conventional sources of water (Figure 3). Surface irrigation is the only irrigation technique used. In 2008, the entire area equipped for full control irrigation was actually irrigated. In 2008, small schemes (< 100 ha) cover 21.4 percent of the total area equipped for full control irrigation, medium size schemes (100-25 000 ha) 2.3 percent and large schemes (> 25 000 ha) 76.3 percent (Figure 4). The Indus Basin Irrigation System Although irrigation takes place in other areas of Pakistan, information on the history and development of irrigation generally refers to the IBIS, where more than 95 percent of the irrigation is located. The 4000 year old Indus civilization has its roots in irrigated agriculture. Canal irrigation development began in 1859 with the completion of the Upper Bari Doab Canal (UBDC) from Madhopur Headworks (now in India) on Ravi River. Until that time, irrigation was undertaken through a network of inundation canals, which were functional only during periods of high river flow. These provided water for Kharif (summer) crops and residual soil moisture for Rabi (winter) crops. The last inundation canals were connected to weir-controlled supplies in 1962 with the completion of the Guddu Barrage on Indus River (barrages in the IBIS are constructed to divert river water into canals and the storage capacity is insignificant). UBDC was followed by Sirhind Canal from Rupar Headworks on Sutlej in 1872 (also in India) and Sidhnai Canal from Sidhnai Barrage on Ravi in 1886. The Lower Chenab from Khanki on Chenab in 1892, and Lower Jhelum from Rasul on Jhelum in 1901 followed suit. Lower and Upper Swat, Kabul River and Paharpur Canals in NWFP were completed during 1885 to 1914. In the beginning of the 1900s, it became apparent that the water resources of the individual rivers were not in proportion to the potential irrigable lands. Ravi River, serving a large area of Bari Doab, was deficient in supply while Jhelum had a surplus. An innovative solution was developed in the form of the Triple Canal Project, constructed during 1907-1915. The project linked the Jhelum, Chenab and Ravi rivers, allowing a transfer of surplus Jhelum and Chenab water to the Ravi. The Triple Canal Project was a land-mark in integrated inter-basin water resources management and also provided the key concept for the resolution of the Indus waters dispute between India and Pakistan in 1960. The Sutlej Valley Project, comprising four barrages and two canals, was completed in 1933, resulting in the development of the unregulated flow resources of the Sutlej River and motivated planning for the Bhakra reservoir (now in India). During the same period, the Sukkur Barrage and its system of seven canals serving 2.95 million ha in the Lower Indus were completed considered as the first modern hydraulic structure on the downstream Indus river. Haveli and Rangpur from Trimmu Headworks on Chenab in 1939 and Thal Canal from Kalabagh Headworks on Indus were completed in 1947. This comprised the system inherited by Pakistan at the time of its creation in 1947. At independence, the irrigation system, conceived originally as a whole, was divided between India and Pakistan without considering the irrigated boundaries. This resulted in the creation of an international water dispute in 1948, which was finally resolved by the enforcement of the Indus Water Treaty in 1960 under the aegis of the World Bank. The Indus Basin Project (IBP) including Mangla dam, five barrages, one syphon and eight inter-river link canals, was completed during 1960-71, while Tarbela dam started partial operation in 1975-76. After the partition, Kotri, Taunsa and Guddu Barrages were completed on the Indus River to provide controlled irrigation to areas previously served by inundation canals. The Taunsa Barrage was completed in 1958 to divert water to two large areas on the left and right banks of the river making irrigated agriculture possible for about 1.18 million ha of arid landscape in Punjab Province. Presently rehabilitation and modernization of the barrage is in progress. Also, three additional inter-river link canals were built prior to the initiation of the IBP. As a result of these extensive developments Pakistan now possesses the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system. It commands 14.87 million ha (2008) and encompasses the Indus River and its tributaries including three large reservoirs (Tarbela, Mangla, and Chashma), 23 barrages / headworks / siphons, 12 inter-river link canals and 45 canals commands extending for 60 800 km with communal watercourses, farm channels, and field ditches covering another 1.6 million km to serve over 90 000 farmers’ operated watercourses. In the Indus system, river water is diverted by barrages and weirs into main canals and subsequently branch canals, distributaries and minors. The flow to the farm is delivered by the watercourses (there are over 107 000 watercourses) which are supplied through outlets (moghas) from the distributaries and minors. The mogha is designed to allow a discharge that self-adjusts to variations in the parent canal. Within the watercourse command (an area ranging from 80 to 280 ha), farmers receive water proportional to their land holding. The entire discharge of the watercourse is given to one farm for a specified period on a seven day rotation. The rotation schedule, called warabandi, is established by the Provincial Irrigation and Power Department, unless the farmers can reach a mutual agreement. Role of irrigation in agricultural production, the economy and society All cotton, rice, sugarcane, fodder, maize grain, fruits, vegetables, freshwater fisheries, dairy livestock are grown under irrigated conditions, and 90 percent of wheat area is irrigated. Rest of the crops like coarse grains, pulses, groundnut, sorghum and millets are normally grown under rainfed farming and spate irrigation. Around 10 percent of the wheat area is under rainfed farming, but this contributes only 5 percent of wheat production. Wheat, pulses and coarse grains are grown under spate irrigation. Recession agriculture is also practiced around the rivers and streams during floods when water flows to the surrounding areas and after receding of floodwater crops are grown. In 2008, total harvested irrigated cropped area was estimated at 21.45 million ha (Table 3 and Figure 5). The major irrigated crops in the country are wheat, rice, sugarcane, cotton and fodder. These crops constitute almost 78 percent of the total harvested area and consume 82 percent of the total available water resources. The area under these crops is 16.60 million ha, of which 7.33, 2.52, 1.24, 3.05 and 2.46 million ha for wheat, rice, sugarcane, cotton and fodder, respectively (GoP, 2008a). Full control irrigated agriculture provides 90 percent of wheat and small grains besides nearly 100 percent of sugarcane, rice, cotton, fruits and vegetables, whereas the Barani (rainfed) and Sailaba (spate irrigation) areas contribute only 10 percent of wheat and a portion of small grains and pulses. It also provides milk, meat and fuel wood in addition to crops (Ahmad, 2004a; Ahmad, 2004b; Ahmad, 2008a; GoP, 2008b). The average yield of irrigated wheat, rice, sugarcane, cotton and fodders is 2.5, 2.2, 51.5, 0.65 and 22.4 tons/ha respectively (GoP, 2008a). In 2008, the average cost of irrigation development in public schemes was estimated at US$1 300/ha, while the cost of drainage development was estimated at US$2 650/ha. The average cost of operation and maintenance (O&M) is US$65/ha per year. The average cost of sprinkler and irrigation for on-farm installation is US$1 500/ha and US$1 750/ha respectively. Status and evolution of drainage systems When the IBIS was developed, the drainage needs were initially quite minimal. Water tables were deep and irrigation water supplies were too low to generate much groundwater recharge and surface water losses. Whatever little drainage was required, could readily be accommodated by the existing natural drainage. The drainage needs, however, increased over time as more irrigation water was diverted and water table rose to harmful levels causing waterlogging and salinity. The drainage systems have been mostly developed over the last 30-40 years (Bhutta and Smedema, 2005). Drainage and reclamation programmes aiming at mitigating waterlogging and salinity, especially in areas where water table lies 0-1.5 m depth, have been assigned priority. Under the Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARPs), a disastrous area of 1.97 million ha (with a water table of 0-1.5 m) was reclaimed through rehabilitation of existing drains and investments for the new drainage schemes. Surface drains were also constructed in areas faced with surface runoff resulting from rainfall or excess irrigation. To encourage private sector participation in drainage, SCARP tubewells were transitioned from public to private sector. Tile drainage was given due attention. The current situation of waterlogged area shows that the disastrous area (with a water table of less than 1.5 m deep) constitutes 12 percent of total irrigated area. About 1.06 million ha of disastrous area has already been covered under various SCARPs. During the current decade, an area of 1.21 million ha was reclaimed under drainage projects such as LBOD, RBOD-I, II and III, Drainage-IV and the National Drainage Programme through installation of 1 260 drainage wells, transitioning of 5 000 public tubewells, construction / rehabilitation of 2 200 km of open drains, and laying of tile drainage system in an area of 146 500 ha (MTDF 2005). In 2008, the total drained area, all equipped for irrigation, was estimated at 15.14 million ha. Water management, policies and legislation related to water use in agricultureInstitutions Water is a federal subject, for which the following federal institutions are responsible:
Irrigation and drainage are the provincial subjects. The Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authorities (PIDAs) are the custodians of the irrigation networks and are in association with the Area Water Boards (AWB), as these are formed, supposed to carry out not only the O&M and the distribution of water within the province, but also design and develop new irrigation and drainage schemes. The experiment of PIDAs is still in its infancy and Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs) are still active as the responsibility and authority is not yet transferred to the AWBs. The Farmers’ Organizations (FOs) were registered during the early 20th Century. In the Institutional Reforms in water sector, the Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authority Acts provide the authority to the PIDAs to form and register the FOs at the distributary canal level. The FOs have been established in the selected AWBs in provinces. The FOs have the responsibility to collect the water fee. In addition to the FOs, the first Water Users Associations (WUA) were created in 1981 under the World Bank-supported “On-Farm Water Management Programme”. These were formed at the watercourse level, with a primary objective of rehabilitating the watercourses. Till today around 80 000 WUAs have been formed and they participated in the rehabilitation and lining of the watercourses. Environment institutions have been established within most of the organizations in addition to the federal and provincial Environmental Protection Agencies (EPAs) to address issues related to field level activities. The regulatory and legal aspects of pollution control are being implemented by the EPAs. Water management The government of Pakistan has undertaken a “National Project on the Improvement of Watercourses” to improve 88 000 watercourses at a cost of Pakistani Rupees 66 billion (about US$0.8 billion in 2009) and cost sharing of 70:30 percent, where 70 percent is contributed jointly by the federal and provincial governments and 30 percent by the farmers. The federal government is also funding a “National Programme for Water Conservation for Productivity Enhancement using High Efficiency Irrigation System” since 2007, where subsidy of Pakistani Rupees 90 000/ha (US$1 070/ha in 2009) is provided jointly by the federal and provincial governments and the rest by the farmer. Service and Supply Companies have been registered from the private sector to provide turn-key basis installation of sprinkler and drip irrigation systems. Recently, this project has been transferred to PARC due to extremely slow progress. The public sector operates the irrigation systems above the moghas (turnout). Each season, the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) of the Federal Government estimates water availability for the following season. The Provincial Irrigation Departments (PID) inform the WAPDA of provincial water demands at specific locations. The WAPDA releases water from the reservoirs to meet demands as closely as possible. The limited reservoir capacity of the systems does not allow the full regulation of rivers for irrigation. Groundwater is providing flexibility to farmers to irrigate their fields at peak demand due to scarcity of water and shortages imposed due to fixed rotation and continuous flow irrigation system, which is quite rigid to meet crop water demand. The water distribution system is based on a rotation schedule, called Warabandi (7-10 days rotation), and water is supplied to farmers on fixed rotation in a time equitable manner, but there is inequity due to inefficiency in conveyance of water (Ahmad, 2008a). In March 1991, an agreement was reached between the provinces on the apportionment of the Indus water to replace a much older agreement. The new agreement has released the provincial canal systems from the need to be in operation all the time so as to protect or establish future rights. Now that the supplies have been apportioned, including the formula for sharing any surplus river flows, the provincial systems are free to move toward more efficient water use. Finances Operation and maintenance (O&M) expenditure is collected by levying water charges and/or drainage taxes. In Punjab and NWFP, water charges are assessed by Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs). In Sindh and Balochistan, they are assessed by the Provincial Revenue Department (PRD). Water and drainage charges are not linked to O&M needs. They are collected in all regions by PRD, and are deemed to be part of the provincial revenues. The gap between O&M expenditures and recoveries through water charges is high (44 percent) and increasing. The difficulties faced in cost recovery have resulted in very poor O&M which, together with deliveries at less than the designed levels and illegal diversion, has led to major inequalities in the distribution of water. In reality, water often does not reach the tail-end users, which can partly explain the increasing groundwater extraction. The FOs have the responsibility to collect the water fee and keep 40 percent of it for the purposes of O&M at the distributary canal level and deposit 60 percent of it to the AWB for upstream O&M. The IBIS is the largest infrastructural enterprise accounting for about US$ 300 000 million of investment (at current rates). Policies and legislation The Draft National Water Policy is still in the process of approval since 2005. The Pakistan Water Strategy was prepared during 2001, which is the basic document for water development and management in the country. There is also no formal Agriculture Policy, although policy decisions have been made on a case to case basis. The only approved Integrated Water Resources Management Policy is for Balochistan province. The 1967 Land Reform Act established a register of rights which is a cadastral register for land and water rights. Environment and healthWater quality of the Indus River and its tributaries is excellent. Total dissolved solids (TDS) range between 60-374 ppm (parts per million), which is safe for multiple uses (Bhutta, 1999; PWP, 2000). TDS in the upper reaches range between 60 ppm during high-flow to about 200 ppm during low-flow. Water quality deteriorates downstream but remains well within permissible limits, with TDS in the lower reaches of the Indus (at Kotri Barrage) ranging from 150 to 374 ppm. TDS of some of the tributaries such as Gomal River at Khajuri, Touchi River at Tangi Post and Zhob River at Sharik Weir range between 400 to 1 250 ppm (IWASRI, 1997). The groundwater is marginal to brackish in quality in 60 percent of aquifer of IBIS. The groundwater quality in the area outside the IBIS is varying, depending on recharge (Ahmad, 2008a; Ahmad, 2008b). Indiscriminate and unplanned disposal of effluents (including agricultural drainage water, municipal and industrial wastewater) into rivers, canals and drains is causing deterioration of water quality in the downstream parts. In 1995 around 12.435 km3/year (9 000 million gallons/day) of untreated water were being discharged into water bodies (Ahmad, 2008b). It was estimated that 0.484 and 0.345 km3/year (350 and 250 million gallons/day) of sewage was produced in Karachi and Lahore metropolitans and most of it was discharged untreated into water bodies. The polluted water is also being used for drinking in downstream areas causing numerous water borne diseases. Quality of groundwater varies widely, ranging from < 1 000 ppm to > 3 000 ppm. Around 5.75 million ha are underlain with groundwater having salinity < 1 000 ppm, 1.84 million ha with salinity ranging from 1 000 to 3 000 ppm and 4.28 million ha with salinity > 3 000 ppm. In addition to TDS, there are quality concerns in terms of sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) and residual sodium carbonate (RSC) (WAPADA 2006). Use of pesticides and nitrogenous fertilizers is now seriously affecting shallow groundwater and entry of effluents into rivers and canals is also deteriorating the quality of freshwater. Almost all shallow freshwater is now polluted with agricultural pollutants and sewage (Ahmad, 2008a; Ahmad, 2008b). Investments in drainage have been significant during the last two decades, though waterlogging still affects large tracts of land. Soil salinity and sodicity also constrain farmers and affect agricultural production. These problems are further exacerbated by the use of poor quality groundwater (Kijne and Kuper, 1995). In fresh groundwater areas, excessive pumping by tubewells leads to mining and redistribution of groundwater quality (WRRI, MONA and IIMI, 1999). Waterlogging in the IBIS has been high in the 1990s due to heavy floods while droughts in early years of the current decade have resulted in lowering of the water table and in reduction of the waterlogged area. The overall analysis depicts that there is no change in waterlogging. Currently, the waterlogged and saline areas are around 7 million ha. During the late 1990s most of the SCARP tubewells were abandoned and farmers were provided support to install shallow tubewells (Zaman and Ahmad, 2009). Climate change is also expected to have significant impacts on agriculture. Potential impacts include vulnerability of crops to heat stress, possible shifts in spatial boundaries, of crops, changes in productivity potentials, changes in water availability and use, and changes in land use systems. Even a fractional rise in temperature could have serious adverse effects, such as considerable increase in growing degree days (GDD, which is a measure of heat accumulation used to predict the date that a flower will bloom or a crop reach maturity). This could not only affect the growth, maturity and productivity of crops, but would also require additional amount of irrigation water to compensate the heat stress (Afzal, 1997). The quality of shallow and deep groundwater has adverse impacts on human and animal health. Around 25 percent of all illnesses diagnosed at public hospitals and dispensaries are gastro-enteric and 40 percent of all deaths, 60 percent of infants’ deaths are due to infections and parasitic diseases, most of them are waterborne. The most common diseases are diarrhea, dysentery, typhoid, hepatitis, kidney stones, skin disease and malaria. HIV is not currently a dominant epidemic in Pakistan. However, the number of cases is growing. WHO estimates indicated that the number of HIV/AIDS cases were around 97 000 ranging from the lowest estimate of 69 000 to the highest estimate of 150 000. The overall prevalence of HIV infection in adults aged 15 to 49 is 0.1 percent. The majority of cases go unreported due to social taboos about sex and victims’ fears of discrimination. On the other hand, over 900 individuals receive free HIV medicines and tests from nine public and three private sector facilities (WHO, UNAIDS and UNICEF, 2008). Prospects for agricultural water managementThe prospects for agricultural water management are:
The population is increasing at a higher growth rate and therefore the agriculture sector has to grow at a rate of over 4 percent per year. This target will be achieved through the improvement of the performance of existing irrigation schemes and enhanced productivity because new water resources are harder to make available in the near future, as the development of large dams would require at least 10 years. The future growth in agriculture would also have direct impact on groundwater and surface water streams, due to expanded use of chemicals. The consumer diet is also changing in terms of increased use of dairy products, meat, fruits and vegetables. The sector will face these challenges and policy support is needed so that agriculture is converted into profit-oriented enterprise in the future. Main sources of informationAsian Development Bank [ADB]. 2003. Preparing for decisions on land use & forestry, Pakistan Report. 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Ahmad, S. 2008a. Keynote Address, paper presented in national conference on “Water Shortage and Future Agriculture in Pakistan – Challenges and Opportunities”. Proceedings of the National Conference organized by the Agriculture Foundation of Pakistan. August 26-27, 2008, Islamabad, Pakistan Ahmad. S. 2008b. Scenarios of surface and groundwater availability in the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) and planning for future agriculture. Paper contributed to the Report of the Sub-Committee on “Water and Climate Change” Taskforce on food security 2009, Planning Commission of Pakistan. Bhutta, M.N. 1999. Vision on water for food and agriculture: Pakistan’s perspective. Regional South Asia Meeting on Water for Food and Agriculture Development. New Delhi Bhutta, M.N. and L. K Smedema 2005. Drainage and salinity management. Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy Background Paper # 15 March, 2005 FAO. 1997. Irrigation in the Near East Region in figures. FAO Water Report No. 9. Rome. 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Salinity & Reclamation Directorate, SCARP Monitoring Organization (SMO). WAPDA, Lahore, 2006. World Bank [WB]. 2005. Country Assistance Strategy. Pakistan’s economy running dry. World Bank, Pakistan Resident Mission, Islamabad. WB. 2008. Taskforce on food security. World Bank 2008. WHO and UNICEF. 2006. Meeting the MDG drinking water and sanitation target, the urban and rural challenges of the decade. World Health Organization and United Nations Children’s’ Fund, 2006. WHO, UNAIDS and UNICEF. 2008. Epidemiological Fact Sheet on HIV and AIDS Core data on epidemiology and response Pakistan 2008 updates. World Health Organization, United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and United Nations Children’s’ Fund, 2008. WRRI, MONA and IIMI. 1999. Spatial analysis of the groundwater in SCARP areas. A Case Study of the MONA Unit. Water Resources Research Institute, MONA Reclamation Experimental Project and IIMI, Islamabad. Zakria, V. 2000. Water and environment sustainability. 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