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El Niño is a local warming of surface waters
which takes place in the entire equatorial zone of the central
and eastern Pacific Ocean off the Peruvian coast and which affects
the atmospheric circulation world-wide. La Niña refers
to the "cold" equivalent of El Niño.
Current ENSO condition
and forecast (26 October 2009; updated every Tuesday)
We are having a weak to moderate
El Niño condition .
Strong: +1.5°C
and more; Moderate: +1.0°C and more; Weak: +0.5°C
and more above average SST.
(figures from NOAA CPC and
IRI)
According to multi-model seasonal forecasts,
in the next couple of months, above-normal temperature
is likely in the Mediterranean, much
of Africa, northern South America and Southesast Asia.
(compiled by Hideki Kanamaru,
climate change group of FAO/NRC)
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Typical ENSO-related temperature and precipitation patterns can
be found on NOAA CPC web sites: El Niño: map,
discussion;
La Niña: map,
discussion.
They can be summarized in the following table.
El Niño
| Both seasons |
| Drier than normal |
northern Australia, Indonesia,
the Philippines |
| December-Januray-February |
| Drier than normal |
southeastern Africa, northern Brazil |
| Wetter than normal |
west coast of tropical South America (coastal
Ecuador, northwestern Peru) , Gulf of Mexco, southeast and southwest
coast of the US, South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina),
equatorial eastern Africa |
| Warmer than normal |
western Canada, Alaska, northeast US, southeastern
Asia, southeastern Africa, Japan, southern Alaska, western/central
Canada, southeastern Brazil, southeastern Australia |
| Cooler than normal |
Gulf coast of the US |
| June-July-August |
| Drier than normal |
northwest India, eastern Australia
|
| Wetter than normal |
northwest US (mountains), central Chile |
| Warmer than normal |
west coast of South America, southeastern
Brazil |
La Niña
| December-Januray-February |
| Drier than normal |
southeastern US, west coast of
tropical South America (coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru),
equatorial eastern Africa |
| Wetter than normal |
Indonesia, Malaysia, northern Australia,
southeastern Africa, northern Brazil |
| Warmer than normal |
southeastern US |
| Cooler than normal |
Alaska, western Canada, northern Great Plains,
western US, southeastern Africa, Japan, southeastern Brazil |
| June-July-August |
| Drier than normal |
South America (southern Brazil to central
Argentina) |
| Wetter than normal |
the Philippines, northwest India, southeastern
Australia |
| Cooler than normal |
India, southeastern Asia, west coast of South
America, portionsl of Central America |
Current ENSO conditions and forecasts:
General ENSO information:
Seasonal forecasts:
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