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Press Release 98/14
UN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION (FAO) SAYS WORLD
CEREAL STOCKS REMAIN BELOW SAFE LEVELS FOR THIRD CONSECUTIVE
YEAR AND URGES CONTINUED CLOSE MONITORING OF SITUATION
Paris, March 4 -- Despite reports of better than
expected cereal harvests at the end of last year, world food
security in the coming 1998/99 season will again depend on a
good and above-trend cereal crop in 1998 for the third
consecutive year, an unusual occurrence in the last 20
years,"said the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
in a special Food Update released today at the Salon de
l'Agriculture in Paris.
"Overall crop conditions are satisfactory so far, but the
area sown to winter wheat in the United States and the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is lower than last
year. In the northern hemisphere, good wheat crops are
anticipated in western Europe, North Africa and India,"
according to the Update, "but conditions are unfavorable in
China, Pakistan and parts of eastern Europe."
Rice plantings and yields in southeast Asia have been
reduced by El Niño. A severe drought considered to
be the worst in half a century, reduced food production and
exacerbated forest fires in Indonesia and devastated crops
in Papua New Guinea resulting in severe food supply problems
in the country, said the Update, adding: "Fortunately, the
threat of El Niño-related drought appears to be
receding in southern Africa while the negative effect on
coarse grains output in Latin America has been less than
anticipated."
The Food Update called for continued "close monitoring,
because any deterioration in prospects for 1998 crops could
result in price rises with serious consequences for the food
security of many Low-Income Food-Deficit countries,
particularly those which depend on imports to meet a large
part of their food requirements."
Total aggregate carryover stocks of cereals stood at 290
million tonnes in 1997 and FAO projections for 1998
anticipate stocks to reach only 295 million tonnes,
representing 15.7 percent of world cereal consumption
against the minimum safe level of 17-18 percent.
On meat production, the Update said, "production in 1998
is expected to expand vigorously, driven by continued low
feed prices which should boost the poultry and pork
sectors." While sheep meat production is expected to rise in
line with increased herds, the Update said little growth in
bovine meat output is forecast, as many important producers
will enter a phase of herd rebuilding that will limit
slaughtering.
FAO estimates a record production of oilseeds for
1997/98, but expects international prices of oilseed
products to remain at relatively high levels compared to the
early 1990s.
According to the Update, Asia's financial turmoil will
have relatively small consequences for global food markets
with some exceptions. Imports of meat products in the region
are likely to be most affected with bovine meat topping the
list. The region's financial crisis could also contribute to
aggravating the food situation through reduced import
capacity and domestic price rises due to currency
devaluations in some countries in the region.
"With cereal production in developing countries estimated
to have fallen by 17 million tonnes in 1997 from the
previous year, the number of countries facing food
emergencies have increased to a near record number" said
Abdur Rashid, Head of FAO's Global Information and Early
Warning System. The Food Update concludes that the current
El Niño phenomenon pushed the number of countries
facing food supply problems to 37, up from 31 a year ago,
listed below:
Afghanistan, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Republic of
Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, El Salvador, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, The Gambia, Georgia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras,
Iraq, Kenya, Korea, D.P.R. (North Korea), Laos, Liberia,
Mauritania, Mongolia, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Niger, Panama,
Papua New Guinea, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia,
Sudan, Tajikistan, Tanzania and Uganda.
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For further information, please contact:
At Salon de l'Agriculture
Mr. Gilles Hirzel/Ms. Lilliane Kambirigi
Tel.: (Cellular) 00 33 6 80 75 45 43
In Rome:
Pierre Antonios
Tel.: (396) 5705-3473
Fax: (396) 5705-3699
For additional information on the world food
situation, please visit FAO's home page on the Internet at:
"http://www.fao.org"
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