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Appendix One: Using the model to evaluate financial performance

Introduction

A technical research team has been established to evaluate the economics of different levels of branch road (or skid trail) density in forests within different regions within Indonesia. The regions which will be examined are:

1.

Sumatera and Sulawesi;

2.

Kalimantan Barat;

3.

Kalimantan Tengah;

4.

Kalimantan Timur;

5.

Maluku; and

6.

Irian Jaya


You have been picked as a member of this team and have been asked to prepare a short presentation on the optimal level of roading density in one of the above regions. The following pages contain all of the information which will be required to investigate each of these regions. The following sheets (BACKGROUND DATA) contain information about capital and operating costs for typical HPHs in each of the regions, current roading costs and density and production levels and prices.

Other members of the team will be assisting you with this task, so you do not have to calculate the profitability of HPHs in all the regions. Your contribution to the team's work will be to complete the following tasks:

1.

read the background data and enter the necessary changes into the Forest Concession Model for your chosen region(s).

2.

calculate the IRR of a typical HPH in this region and examine the effect of different skid trail densities on IRR (by altering the planned level of branch road density on page 8 of the model); and

3.

prepare a short presentation of your results showing the profitability of HPHs in your region and explaining the optimal level of skid trail density.


BACKGROUND DATA (SHEET 1 OF 7)

Concession details

Region

Sumatera and Sulawesi

Kalimantan Barat

Kalimantan Tengah

Kalimantan Timur

Maluku

Irian Jaya

Concession size

130,000

180,000

200,000

200,000

200,000

200,000

Time to 2nd cycle

15

15

15

15

25

25

Total area - virgin

45,000

60,000

75,000

75,000

125,000

125,000

Total area - 2nd

60,000

80,000

100,000

100,000

50,000

50,000

First year of investment

1997

1997

1997

1997

1997

1997

Yield - virgin

35

40

50

50

50

30

Yield - 2nd

20

20

35

35

35

15


BACKGROUND DATA (SHEET 2 OF 7)

Planning and surveying costs

Region

Sumatera and Sulawesi

Kalimantan Barat

Kalimantan Tengah

Kalimantan Timur

Maluku

Irian Jaya

20 year plan

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

0

0

Village dev diagnostic survey

4

3

1.5

1.5

1.5

2

EIA (AMDAL)

0.75

0.75

0.75

0.75

0

0

Aerial photography

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0

0

Length of boundary

30

40

50

50

0

0


BACKGROUND DATA (SHEET 3 OF 7)

Camp investment (US$ 000)

Region

Sumatera and Sulawesi

Kalimantan Barat

Kalimantan Tengah

Kalimantan Timur

Maluku

Irian Jaya

Buildings

450 (new)
20 yrs

500 (new)
20 yrs

530 (new)
20 yrs

530 (new)
20 yrs

350 (existing) 10 yrs

350 (existing) 10 yrs

Electricity

8 (existing)
10 yrs

8 (existing)
10 yrs

8 (existing)
10 yrs

8 (existing)
10 yrs

4 (existing)
5 yrs

4 (existing)
5 yrs

Gen set

8 (existing)
10 yrs

8 (existing)
10 yrs

8 (existing)
10 yrs

8 (existing)
10 yrs

4 (existing)
5 yrs

4 (existing)
5 yrs

Water supply

8 (existing)
10 yrs

8 (existing)
10 yrs

8 (existing)
10 yrs

8 (existing)
10 yrs

4 (existing)
5 yrs

4 (existing)
5 yrs

Comms equipment

16 (existing)
10 yrs

16 (existing)
10 yrs

16 (existing)
10 yrs

16 (existing)
10 yrs

8 (existing)
5 yrs

8 (existing)
5 yrs

Workshop equipment

84 (existing)
10 yrs

84 (existing)
10 yrs

84 (existing)
10 yrs

84 (existing)
10 yrs

42 (existing)
5 yrs

42 (existing)
5 yrs

Other equipment

34 (existing)
10 yrs

34 (existing)
10 yrs

34 (existing)
10 yrs

34 (existing)
10 yrs

17 (existing)
5 yrs

17 (existing)
5 yrs


BACKGROUND DATA (SHEET 4 OF 7)

Replacement capital requirements (US$ 000)

Region

Sumatera and Sulawesi

Kalimantan Barat

Kalimantan Tengah

Kalimantan Timur

Maluku

Irian Jaya

Renovate camp

-

-

-

-

700 in yr 11
20 yr life

700 in yr 11
20 yr life

Utilities

39 in yr 11
15 yr life

39 in yr 11
15 yr life

39 in yr 11
15 yr life

39 in yr 11
15 yr life

39 in yr 6
15 yr life

39 in yr 6
15 yr life

Comms equipment

25 in yr 11
15 yr life

25 in yr 11
15 yr life

25 in yr 11
15 yr life

25 in yr 11
15 yr life

25 in yr 6
15 yr life

25 in yr 6
15 yr life

Workshop equipment

127 in yr 11
15 yr life

127 in yr 11
15 yr life

127 in yr 11
15 yr life

127 in yr 11
15 yr life

127 in yr 6
15 yr life

127 in yr 6
15 yr life

Other equipment

51 in yr 11
15 yr life

51 in yr 11
15 yr life

51 in yr 11
15 yr life

51 in yr 11
15 yr life

51 in yr 6
15 yr life

51 in yr 6
15 yr life


BACKGROUND DATA (SHEET 5 OF 7)

Roading

Region

Sumatera and Sulawesi

Kalimantan Barat

Kalimantan Tengah

Kalimantan Timur

Maluku

Irian Jaya

Maintenance cost of existing branch roads

0

0

0

0

0

0

Length of existing roads

     Corridor

60

100

100

100

100

100

     Main

180

240

300

300

150

150

     Branch (skid trail)

600

800

1000

1000

500

500


BACKGROUND DATA (SHEET 6 OF 7)

Prices, IHH and yields

Region

Sumatera and Sulawesi

Kalimantan Barat

Kalimantan Tengah

Kalimantan Timur

Maluku

Irian Jaya

Proportion of each species

     Meranti

50

60

70

70

70

30

     Rimba C

40

20

15

15

15

65

     Kayu Indah

20

20

15

15

15

  5

Price

     Meranti

120

100

100

100

100

90

     Rimba C

100

80

80

80

80

80

     Kayu Indah

120

80

80

80

80

80

IHH

     Meranti

11

11

11

11

11

10

     Rimba C

7

7

7

7

7

4

     Kayu Indah

14

14

14

14

14

14


BACKGROUND DATA (SHEET 7 OF 7)

Other information

For Irian Jaya and Maluku, add US$ 516,000 as other operating costs in year 2006 in Financial Table II, to reflect the cost of preparing another 20 year plan (RKPH) in this year, plus EIA (AMDAL), aerial photographs, and boundary marking.

Add the following travelling distances into Calculation Table V:

Sumatera:

Road = 60 km;

River = 100 km

Other areas:

Road = 100 km;

River = 200 km

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