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| I. | WORLD FOOD SECURITY TRENDS | 1 |
| II. | FOOD SECURITY TRENDS, PROSPECTS AND ISSUES IN THE EUROPE REGION | 3 |
| 1. | Overall food security situation and prospects | 3 |
| 2. | Food security prospects for the Traditional Market Economies (TME) | 5 |
The nature of the food security problem
| 5 | |
Food security prospects for the Traditional Market Economies (TME) sub-region
| 5 | |
The contribution of the sub-region to world food supplies
| 6 | |
| 3. | The causes and nature of food insecurity in the transition economies | 7 |
Food security prospects in the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC)
| 8 | |
Food security prospects in the Baltic States and the Commonwealth of Independent States
| 9 | |
| 4. | The role of the region in global food security | 10 |
The region's contribution to the export prospects of the developing countries
| 11 | |
The effects of trade liberalisation
| 11 | |
Official Development Assistance (ODA), food stocks and food aid
| 12 | |
Trade liberalisation and food stocks: implications for food aid and food price stability
| 12 | |
| 5. | World Food Summit and regional goals for food security | 13 |
| III. | ACTIONS TO ADDRESS REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY | 14 |
| 1. | Ensuring the political and economic environment for food security | 15 |
Basis for action
| 15 | |
Objectives
| 15 | |
Actions to be taken
| 15 | |
| 2. | Securing sustainable safety nets and social support systems for the food insecure | 16 |
Basis for action
| 16 | |
Objectives
| 16 | |
Actions to be taken
| 16 | |
| 3. | Ensuring the availability of adequate food supplies | 17 |
Basis for action
| 17 | |
Objectives
| 17 | |
Actions to be taken
| 18 | |
| 4. | Strengthening the role of Europe in improving global food security | 19 |
Basis for action
| 19 | |
Objectives
| 19 | |
Actions to be taken
| 19 | |
| Table 1 | 21 | |
| Table 2 | 24 | |
1. The Committee on World Food Security expressed its wish to
benefit from the perspectives of the Regional Conferences on the
major, regionally specific, issues, policies and actions for regional
and global food security, as their contribution to the World Food
Summit Plan of Action. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate
Regional level discussions on food security in Europe and the
region's role in global food security. Similar papers have been
prepared for the other Regional Conferences to be held in the
course of 1996.
2. Over the past three decades, world food production has grown
faster than population. Per caput food production is today about
18 percent above that of 30 years ago. Food availabilities for
direct human consumption are equivalent to some 2 700 Calories
per person per day, up from 2 300 Calories 30 years ago.
At the one extreme, in Western Europe per caput food availabilities
stand at some 3 500 Calories and in North America at some
3 600. At the other extreme, average per caput food availabilities
are only 2 300 Calories in Africa.
3. Despite the considerable progress achieved in increasing
per caput food supplies, more than 800 million people in the developing
countries were undernourished in the early 1990s. Millions more
suffer debilitating diseases related to micro-nutrient deficiencies
and to contaminated food and water. Every day, one out of five
people in the developing world cannot get enough food to meet
their daily needs; in 17 African countries, two or three out of
five people do not have adequate food. The regions of Western
Europe, North America, Near East and Latin America and the Caribbean
had the lowest percentage of undernourished. The largest numbers,
though declining, are to be found in Asia but those in Africa
have been increasing in total and, in many countries, as a proportion
of the population.
4. In addition to the chronically undernourished, civil
strife and wars have adversely affected millions of people. Although
food assistance is provided to ease their plight, the per person
amount provided is too often insufficient for good health. The
sharp reduction in food aid availability over the past three years
has reduced the capacity to face crisis situations.
5. To bring each undernourished person to his or her respective
energy requirement level (2 200 Calories/day) would require,
on average, an additional 570 Calories/day. This is obviously
an underestimate of any realistic estimate to eliminate undernourishment.
World food consumption in 1990-92 was short of such needs by about
3 percent. In more concrete terms, given that cereals represent
around 60 percent of the calorie supply of the population of the
developing countries, the gap in cereals would represent about
30 million tons of grains (to be compared with about 9-12 million
tons of food aid in recent years). The food gap varies widely
between regions, ranging from negligible in some Western industrialised
countries to about 5 percent in the low-income food-deficit countries
(LIFDCs), 10 percent in Africa and close to 5 percent in the developing
countries as a whole.
6. The prospects for the future, as they emerge from FAO's
World Agriculture: Towards 2010 study (1995) (AT2010),
indicate that trends towards increasing per caput food supplies
in most developing countries will continue. For the developing
countries as a whole, average per caput food supplies are expected
to reach 2 730 Calories in the year 2010 - a substantial
increase from 2 520 in the years 1990-92.
7. Despite such progress, the number of undernourished
in the developing countries by the year 2010 is still projected
to be between 700 to 800 million. The two regions expected to
have the largest number of undernourished remain South Asia and
Africa. However, while in South Asia their number is forecast
to diminish sharply, bringing their share of the total population
close to the 12 percent average of developing countries as a whole,
in Africa the number of undernourished is projected to increase
by about 100 million to over 300 million, mostly in the LIFDCs.
8. The forecast level of undernutrition would exist alongside
increasing food imports in the developing countries. Net cereal
imports are projected to expand from the nearly 90 million tons
of 1989-91 to some 162 million tons in the year 2010; and the
aggregate cereal self-sufficiency ratio to decline from 92 percent
to 90 percent. Although the largest increases are foreseen for
the Near East and North Africa (33 million tons) and Latin America
and the Caribbean (15 million tons), only a small number of countries
in these regions currently face serious foreign exchange shortages.
9. The near doubling in the net cereal trade deficit (from
27 to 50 million tons) foreseen for Africa, on the other hand,
is more ominous given the precarious balance of payments situation
in many of the countries in the region and the unfavourable prospects
for many of them, especially those that must continue to finance
their growing food import requirements from agricultural export
earnings.
10. The above prospects for a protracted incidence of undernutrition
for hundreds of millions of people would be the likely consequence
of a 'business as usual' approach. By contrast, therefore, all
efforts must be mobilised to reduce the incidence of undernutrition
and malnutrition as fast and on as broad a geographical scope
as possible, so as to achieve by the year 2010 a better outcome
than that forecast in the AT2010 study.
11. The additional amount of food that would be required
to increase the per caput consumption of the projected 700-800
million undernourished to the level of average requirements for
a healthy life is small relative to the requirements of world
populations. Therefore the issue is not only whether the world
as a whole could produce such additional amounts of food, but
even more how to ensure that the countries with the largest concentration
of undernourished improve their access to food for all. This would
require substantial increases in food import capacity, international
food assistance, incomes and food production in those countries
projected to have low food supplies and high undernutrition in
2010. For the developing countries in this class, per caput food
supplies are projected to be 2 360 Calories in 2010. If none
of them were to have less than 2 700 Calories by then (which,
assuming current income and food assistance, would bring the incidence
of undernutrition of the developing countries to a more moderate
6 percent, or 330 million people), their food supplies would need
to grow at 3.5 percent rather than the projected 2.7 percent annually.
This would require a 10-12 percent increase in the world production
growth rate from what is currently projected to 2010 (1.8 percent)
to 2.0 percent annually. But where the additional food would come
from is of greater importance. For those countries and regions
with high rates of undernourishment, the task would represent
a great challenge for both themselves and the world community.
For example, if the food were to come from the region itself,
African production growth would have to be at 4.0 percent per
annum for 20 years, notwithstanding increased commercial or concessionary
imports, instead of 2.0 percent during 1970-90 and 2.9 percent
projected to the year 2010. Such a target may not be sustainable,
economically or environmentally.
12. Raising world food production, primarily where natural
conditions make it compatible with sustainability of the natural
resource base; ensuring satisfaction at moderate cost of the growing
food needs; raising and distributing incomes to enable the largest
numbers to provide for their food needs; providing food assistance
to poor and vulnerable population groups; and ensuring stability
of food supplies and access, are the objectives which all countries,
regions and the international community, have to strongly pursue
to prevent dire predictions from materialising.
13. Universal food security has been a priority objective
in the European region for decades. Food supplies in the region
on a per person basis were over 3 000 Calories on average
per day by 1960, and exceeded 3 400 by 1990, an amount considered
by nutritionists to be abundant to excessive. But large differences
exist within the region. The long existing political and economic
divide between market and centrally planned economies has given
way in the early 1990s to the distinction between traditional
market economies (TME) and countries in transition (CIT) towards
a market economy. In the wake of the collapse of the central planning
system, the latter economies experienced economic, political and
social upheavals resulting in drastic declines in economic activity
and disruptions in the productive sectors. The violent conflicts
that have accompanied the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia
and the former USSR have added their toll to the economic hardships
and food insecurity generated by the breakdown of the old systems.
14. For most of the CIT the first half of the current decade
saw a decline in the food supply per person. Most of these countries
could not maintain adequate food security safety nets during the
transition. Moreover, relatively high unemployment and budgetary
pressures in Western European countries have led to reviews of
the social safety nets that have been maintained over the years.
15. Looking to the future, the regional population growth
rate is expected to continue declining and in several countries
even population levels will decline. By the year 2010 the region's
population will be slightly above present levels. The decline
in entrants to the labour force and the increase in the number
of the elderly will lead to a rising dependency ratio. Population
trends thus imply little scope for overall increases in the quantity
of food needed to satisfy nutrition requirements. Moreover, an
adequate diet can be maintained with food supplies per person
declining from the high regional average levels reached during
1990-92.
16. However, the regional economy will be expanding, and
incomes will be rising. In response, average calorie intake may
still remain at a level that is in excess of nutritional requirements.
Rising incomes are expected to continue to stimulate gradual changes
in the composition of the food basket, which will probably mobilise
more sophisticated processing methods and abundant primary food
products. Nevertheless, a declining share of income will need
to be allocated for food, and ensuring food for all will be a
relatively easy task for the region, especially for the TME. However,
the transition countries face a much more difficult task, and
some of them will have to postpone the goal of universal food
security for years.
17. The annual rate of growth in food production in the
region has slowed over time, from 1.7 percent in the 1970s to
1.3 percent in the 1980s and -3.1 percent between 1990 and 1995.
The quantity of food produced in 1989 has not been equalled during
the first half of the 1990s. For TME, food production declined
by an average annual rate of -0.8 percent in the 1990-1995 period.
For the same period, a sharp decline in food production took place
in the countries in transition, and especially those formerly
in the USSR, where food production declined by an average annual
rate of -6.8 percent. Production of cereals for the period 1990-1994
declined at an average annual rate of -1.9 percent, -5.8 percent
and -7.5 percent for the TME, Central Eastern European Countries
(CEEC) and those in the former USSR respectively. In the transition
countries, the livestock sector experienced a near-collapse. In
the Baltic States and countries in the Commonwealth of Independent
States (BS and CIS), stocks of cattle and pigs declined by 22
and 37 percent respectively, between 1989 and 1995 while for CEEC,
the corresponding figures were 14 and 10 percent.
18. The distinction between TME and CIT is bound to be
transitory. Several of the latter have already achieved significant
steps on the reform path; many however are facing serious difficulties
in transforming their economic and political systems. For those
countries, the path to recovery will be longer and more tedious,
and their food security situation in the medium term will continue
to be a cause for concern. In view of the present differences
in the food security situation within Europe, the prospects for
the Region are considered for three groups of countries, TME,
CEEC, and BS and CIS.
19. For the TME, dietary energy supplies (DES) are estimated
to be 3 480 Calories per caput per day. Despite the high
average food consumption of these countries, pockets of food insecurity
are found in all of them, even the most developed ones. Most of
these countries have developed a broad range of safety nets, including
income support, unemployment relief, basic health services and
direct food assistance programmes, with often significant participation
by civil organisations. Such measures and programmes render food
insecurity a marginal problem, limited to such groups as the elderly
on fixed incomes, and the chronically unemployed who fall outside
of the social safety nets.
20. In some of the TME, existing social security and safety
net systems have been downsized under pressures for fiscal austerity,
while in others they are under review and may be adjusted accordingly.
Those adjustments take place in the face of the changing character
of unemployment from cyclical to structural. The need for restructuring
and modernization of the industrial, and increasingly of the services
sector under escalating competitive and deregulation pressures,
results in the release of significant portions of the labour force,
and especially the unskilled or low skilled workers. Despite the
generally continuous (albeit uneven) economic growth, unemployment
remains stubbornly high.
21. Food security concerns relate also to the quality characteristics
of the foods in the market, food safety, and sometimes the deterioration
in the nutritional quality of diets due to changing lifestyles
and increased dependence on processed foods. Such problems, although
more pronounced among the poorest, affect all strata of society.
Deterioration of the nutritional content of diets can also take
the form of inadequately balanced or excessive food consumption,
with associated obesity and other health consequences. Excessive
food consumption draws heavily on primary agricultural production,
thus adding the individual and social costs of unhealthy nutrition
to those of food resource wastage.
22. Population growth in the sub-region is expected to
slow from 0.6 in 1990-1995 to 0.3 between 1995 and 2010 and further
to 0.1 between 2010 and 2025. For a number of countries in the
sub-region population will peak in early 2000 and will start declining
thereafter. The composition of the population is also changing.
The dependency ratio will decline from 50.8 in 1995 to 50.1 by
2010 and subsequently increase by 2025. There will be an increase
in the weight of the "over 65" cohort. Projected population
figures and dependency ratios, may underestimate the actual population
in the region since they do not take into account the significant
migratory movements towards the sub-region from CIT and developing
countries. Such movements are likely, at least partly to counter-balance
the effects of an increasing dependency ratio and increase the
projected entry into the labour force. Nevertheless, trends imply
little need for increasing the overall quantity of food needed
to satisfy nutrition requirements and that adequate diets per
person can be maintained with food supplies per caput declining.
23. The sub-region's income (real GDP) is expected to continue
growing at a rate of 2.4 percent per caput between 1995 and 2010.
Increasing real income should eventually reduce unemployment,
as skills demanded by the restructured industrial and service
sectors are matched to those available in the labour force. Increases
in income mean that average Calorie intake may still remain at
a level that is in excess of nutritional requirements. Rising
incomes will cause shifts in the diets of the population in the
sub-region towards more processed foods, fruits and vegetables
and vegetable oils. The share of the household budget devoted
to food is expected to decline further.
24. The population and income dynamics call for little
if any increases in the overall quantity of food needed to satisfy
consumption requirements, and the region will have a fairly easy
task in providing food security for all. Even where public social
support has declined, activities by non-governmental groups and
charitable organisations have been effective in complementing
public programmes and are expected to continue doing so in the
future.
25. The sub-region has traditionally been a net importer
of food. For cereals, a major food item imported by developing
countries, the sub-region has been a net exporter since the mid-1980s,
with net exports of 19.8 million tonnes in 1994. The longer term
net contribution of the sub-region to global food availability
is a confluence of three major trends: population dynamics, income
growth, and trends in agricultural production and productivity
in the region. From the point of view of developing countries
and especially LIFDCs, the sub-region's net export position on
basic food items (mainly cereals) is of importance as is the sub-region's
role as an importer of food from the developing countries.
26. In terms of demand for cereals, some changes in the
demand for feedgrains may be forthcoming, following dietary shifts
especially between different kinds of meats. In addition, the
sub-region's demand for domestically produced cereals may grow
at the expense of imported substitutes. Nevertheless, the overall
demand for cereals is expected to increase by only 13.5 percent
between 1988-90 and 2010.
27. On the supply side, reforms in the policies of the European Union (EU) will have a major impact. Such reforms are the result of both internal pressures to control agricultural expenditures as well as of obligations undertaken under the Uruguay Round Agreement. In 1992, substantial reforms in the Common Agricultural Policy were initiated towards a support policy decoupled from production. The agreed reduction in the volume of EU subsidised exports is also an important factor arising from the Uruguay Round Agreement.
28. The combined effects of lower domestic support prices,
set-aside programmes, environmental considerations and slower
productivity growth, could lead to a reduction in net exports
of over 20 percent between 1988-90 and 2010. Depite lower exports,
the types of policies followed to reduce overproduction (set-aside
programmes) could preserve the ability of the sub-region to increase
production in cases of tight world market supplies.
29. The production potential in the sub-region will also
depend on the environmental policies concerning agriculture of
the countries in the sub-region. Many of them, especially in Western
Europe, are increasingly taking measures to overcome the more
serious threats to the environment coming from agriculture. They
have, for example, taken marginal land out of production; reduced
or banned the use of mineral fertilisers and residual pesticides
on sensitive watersheds vulnerable to groundwater contamination;
tightened the controls on waste disposal from intensive livestock
units, and so forth. The sensitivity of civil society on such
issues, and the technical and economic capacity to implement environmentally-benign
practices and to bear the possible costs, make this trend likely
to continue. Direct payments and cost compensation for the adoption
of environmentally-friendly practices are increasingly important
in the TME of Europe, but their effects on the production potential
of the region have not been identified.
30. Although there are large differences between the CEEC
and those in the former-USSR regarding the nature of and prospects
for food security, the sub-regions share some common characteristics.
The economic and social upheavals following the collapse of central
planning, and the ensuing deep economic recession are at the root
of the deterioration of all basic dimensions of food security
(availability, stability and access) in the transition countries,
and of the degradation of basic social amenities. The problem
has appeared most severe in regions affected by war and civil
strife.
31. The economic crisis caused sharp reductions in disposable household incomes, and the quasi disappearance of social safety nets and the social protection and services provided by state and collective enterprises. Large-scale unemployment, and income adjustments lagging behind inflation for many employees and pensioners have created sizeable vulnerable groups.
32. The factors that led to declining agricultural and
food output are a combination of transitory short-term upheavals
and longer-term adjustment towards the market path. The latter
set of adjustments may imply an intersectoral allocation of resources
under market conditions that differ substantially from the previous
centrally-planned allocation.
33. For agricultural producers, the breakdown of state
marketing and distribution channels without a prompt emergence
of private channels, meant difficulties in securing inputs as
well as outlets for marketed surplus. The continuation of monopolistic
structures up- or downstream, and the control of food prices at
retail level, created in several countries a price-cost squeeze
that greatly reduced producer profit margins. The effects of lower
profit margins on incentives were exacerbated by an uncertain
institutional framework: uncertain property rights, inefficient
forms of redistribution of collectively owned land, hesitations
at dismantling large-scale collective agricultural enterprises
and/or at creating the conditions for a market for land or land
use entitlements. All those factors have prevented the emergence
of new, sustainable production structures and discouraged investment
and the re-capitalisation of the sector.
34. With few exceptions, headcounts below the poverty line
in transition countries range from 20 to 40 percent of the population.
With declining incomes and despite the shift to lower quality
foods, the national average share of food in household expenditures
rose sharply, in many cases reaching above 70 percent, and much
more for the poorer strata. For ten countries for which data are
available, average dietary energy supplies (DES) declined from
a range of 2 500-3 600 Calories (1989) to 1 600-2 700
Calories (1993 or 1994), a decline of 6 to 37 percent in individual
countries.
35. Finally, the armed conflicts that developed in several
zones have led to the provision of humanitarian assistance to
millions of people in the former Yugoslavia and the former USSR.
36. On the basis of low per caput GDP and continuing deficits
in basic food commodities, nine (previously 12) countries in transition
are currently classified as LIFDCs. For 1994/95, the total estimated
import requirements for the 12 LIFDCs for cereals were projected
at 7.3 million tonnes of which allocated, committed or shipped
food aid was 2.1 million tons, compared to 7.8 million tons of
commercial purchases and 1.8 million tons of food aid in 1993/94
.
37. The population in the CEE sub-region is expected to
increase slightly between 1995 and 2010 (average annual growth
rate of 0.1 percent). The dependency ratio is expected to decrease
until sometime between 2010 and 2025 and increase thereafter.
38. The overall prospects are for economic recovery in
the sub-region; the first signs of a sustainable recovery are
present. Almost all of the CEEC reported positive growth in 1994
(3.7 percent on average) and were expected to grow by another
4 percent in 1995. Real GDP is projected to recuperate "transition
losses" and return to its pre-reform level by 2010.
39. An almost constant and ageing population will imply
little need for further increases in per caput calorie intake
over the already high pre-reform level. Nevertheless, FAO projects
3 400 Calories per caput per day in the year 2010, more than
is necessary on nutritional grounds. Income growth and price reforms
in the CEEC are expected to cause shifts in the diets away from
red meats and pork and towards poultry, more vegetable oils etc.
40. Cereals consumption per caput is also expected to return to the same level as in the pre-reform period. Some of the recent declines in livestock production are expected to be permanent reflecting changes dictated by market forces rather than as a result of short-term shocks. More efficient use of feed in livestock production and seed, and lower post-harvest losses will moderate the demand for cereals.
41. On the other hand, it is assumed that continuation
of market reforms in the CEEC will bring about large changes in
agricultural production and productivity. Under such a scenario
the CEEC could become net exporters of cereals by the year 2010
of over five million tonnes compared to their net imports of 2.1
million tonnes in 1988-90. The value of net food exports could
double during the same period with livestock products accounting
for about half of net food exports in the year 2010. There are
strong signs of recovery of the agricultural sector from the crisis
of the early reform years in a number of those countries. Some
of the CEEC have increased their cereals export surpluses, while
the sub-region as a whole is expected to produce an exportable
surplus in 1995-96.
42. The vigour of the agricultural sector recovery depends
on the continuation of reform efforts in those countries. Significant
steps forward have been made to date, but important reforms are
yet to be completed. Addressing institutional constraints is essential.
A secure system of land property rights, and mechanisms for land
lease and sale are required to facilitate the emergence of viable
market-oriented farms. Such reforms should be accompanied by re-organisation
and privatisation of the upstream and downstream sectors and by
the removal of monopolistic or oligopolistic situations. Improvements
in the flow of and access to market information, and in the business
management and technical skills of farmers so that they can deal
with competitive market-oriented farming, are important tasks
which may require the cooperation of government, the private sector
and farmers' organisations.
43. Agricultural recovery may be hampered by environmental
problems. The inheritance of decades of environment-insensitive
policies has left profound scars, and land degradation, large
scale water management disasters, as well as contamination of
agricultural resources and products by airborne and other pollutants,
are serious in several countries.
44. Growth in the overall economy and the agricultural sector won't automatically solve the food insecurity problem. Unemployment in the sub-region is high, with long-term unemployment (more than 12 months) at about 40 percent. In general, the social consequences of the crisis are expected to follow income growth with a substantial lag. The importance of incorporation of safety nets in the adjustment programmes cannot be overstated.
45. According to the latest UN population assessment (1994),
the population in the sub-region is expected to increase from
292 million in 1995 to 305 and 316 million in 2010 and 2025 respectively.
For some large countries in the region the population will decline,
and the average annual rate of growth between 1995 and 2010 is
expected to be 0.3 percent. The dependency ratio will continue
decreasing, reaching the lowest point around the year 2020 and
increase afterwards.
46. The recent overall growth performance of the region
has not been encouraging. The recession that started in the first
reform years and which saw real GDP for the sub-region decline
by a cumulative 48 percent, has not yet shown clean signs of reversal,
with a decline of around 10 percent for 1994. Lower income growth
and the demise of the export sector have resulted in a diminished
ability to import food. Thus, despite declines in production of
cereals and meat, food imports to the sub-region declined from
US$ 15.3 billion in 1990 to US$7.9 billion in 1994. Cereals imports
declined from 33 million tonnes in 1990 to 6.8 million tonnes
in 1994 also due to the near collapse of the livestock sector.
Some countries in the sub-region are likely to face a difficult
task in trying to achieve food security for all by the year 2010.
47. On the assumption that substantial economic reforms will be implemented the sub-region is expected to recuperate " transition losses" in real GDP by 2010, which would provide a favourable environment for food security. With few exceptions, the reform process in the sub-region has been hesitant and uncertain and occurs amidst serious social and political contradictions and conflict. The absence of coherent policies for macro-economic stabilisation has given rise to high inflation rates making difficult any form of production planning.
48. Reforms in the agricultural sector may result in the
sub-region recovering by 2010 the 1988/1990 level of cereals production,
and per caput utilisation may return to the high pre-reform levels.
The latter is due to the lower consumption of cereals and livestock
products, a smaller livestock sector and improvements in the efficiency
of feeding, and lower post-harvest losses. Overall, the sub-region
could be almost self-sufficient by 2010. As in the case of CEEC,
environmental problems could impede agricultural recovery in the
sub-region.
49. In addition to the general economic decline as a major
cause of food insecurity, an additional factor in the sub-region
is the high market fragmentation caused partly by the breakdown
of the marketing and distribution system. As a result, supplies
have become erratic especially in urban areas and local shortages
have emerged. Availability of existing supplies is also affected
by high transport and storage/distribution losses. A considerable
part of domestic trade occurs in the form of barter and informal
arrangements. Obstacles to market integration exist due to a web
of local laws and regulations governing food trade.
50. The proliferation of informal production in many areas
makes an accurate assessment of the food security situation difficult.
Nevertheless, in many countries, given the danger of drastic declines
in availability and access conditions, continuous monitoring of
the poverty and food security situations are essential as are
appropriate measures to check unemployment, provide access to
productive assets and land, restore health and social services
for the poor, and facilitate access to food by the vulnerable
groups.
51. Improving global food security will depend to a considerable
degree on the performance of world food and commodity markets
and more generally on the overall macroeconomic and trade environment
within which policies and programmes that improve food security
will be implemented. The region can be an important force influencing
the performance of those markets. The European region is a major
supplier of food to the developing countries on commercial or
concessional terms, holds a large share of the world's food stocks,
is an extremely important market for agricultural exports from
developing countries and a major source of development assistance.
52. With few exceptions (for example fruits and vegetables)
developing countries are exporting low income-elasticity agricultural
products to the mostly saturated markets of Western Europe. As
a result, demand for products such as tropical fruits and beverages
grow slowly from a high base. Conversely, a more significant growth
in demand for tropical products could be expected by the transition
economies as their incomes grow, although by 2010 the per caput
consumption in those countries would still be low compared to
levels in Western Europe.
53. For tropical agricultural products, tariffs are already
generally low. Thus, although reductions to be implemented by
WTO members from developed countries are substantial (43 percent
on average), their effect on the export earnings of developing
country exporters will be small. However, there is scope for further
liberalisation in this area, e.g. domestic taxes in some importing
countries, if eliminated, could boost market prices of some tropical
products considerably. FAO's assessment of the impact of the Uruguay
Round Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) points to some gains for
developing countries as a whole. As a result, agricultural exports
are expected to grow modestly faster than imports (compared to
the situation of no liberalisation), resulting in an improvement
of their agricultural trade balance by US$ 1.9 billion in
the year 2000, of which US$ 0.8 billion will be due to the
AoA itself.
54. An important issue for some countries trading with
Europe is the loss of preferential margins under trade liberalisation.
The FAO has assessed that the potential value of preferences for
agricultural commodities given by the EU, Japan and the United
States was some US$ 1.9 billion in 1992, and would fall by
US$ 0.7 billion after the reduction of Most Favoured Nation
(MFN) rates following the AoA. On a commodity basis, the main
losses affect fruit and nuts, tea and coffee exporters.
55. Trade and environmental policies may lead to conflicting
positions as to how environmental concerns are addressed. Duties
or other import restrictions to compensate for a loss of competitiveness
due to high domestic environmental standards would reduce access
by exporters. Value preferences enforced by importing countries
on Production and Processing Methods followed by exporting countries,
e.g. to protect global commons, may be difficult to distinguish
from disguised protectionism. Proliferation of unilateral measures
would reduce the transparency of trade rules. Multilateral approaches,
along the principles laid down by the United Nations Conference
on Environment and Development (UNCED), are needed to avoid the
misuse of environmental policies in international agricultural
trade, although the considerable regional and local differences
in environmental conditions within and among countries pose a
particular challenge to the design and implementation of such
approaches.
56. The countries of Western Europe (the EU plus the European
Free Trade Agreement ((EFTA) countries) contributed to Official
Development Assistance (ODA) to developing countries by on average
some US$ 33.5 billion per annum (in the 1992-1994 period),
compared to US$ 30 billion during the 1989-1993 period. For
1992-94 this contribution amounted to more than half of the total
ODA by OECD to developing countries.
57. The economic shocks of the post-communist transformation have triggered ODA resource flows to the economies in transition, which received some US$ 7.2 billion in 1993 and a further US$ 7.5 billion in 1994 from the DAC countries. The corresponding amount to developing countries was US$ 59.2 billion in 1994.
58. The foreign assistance budgets of donor countries have
come under increasing stress in their efforts to respond to the
growing needs of both developing countries and from those within
the region. Pressures in developed countries to reduce ODA, stemming
from internal budget considerations, are a cause for concern and
so is the reported decline of ODA going to agriculture of developing
countries.
59. The European region has been a major provider of food
aid. Between 1990 and 1995 the region provided an average of 4090
thousand tonnes of food aid (mainly cereals). A recent development
in the region regarding food aid is that the former centrally
planned economies, which had been sporadic recipients of food
aid up to 1989, in 1993 absorbed 41 percent of global food aid
deliveries. In the 1990-94 period, European Currency Unit (ECU)
2.2 billion worth of food aid was supplied by the G-24 countries
to the CEEC and ECU 5.5 billion to the BS and CIS. In addition,
transition countries have absorbed 27.5 percent of all food aid
(cereals and non-cereals) provided by European countries during
the 1990-1995 period. To the extent that food aid flows in the
past have been related to the disposal of surplus production,
the reduction in Government intervention in agricultural markets,
and in particular reduced public stock-holding in exporting countries,
might be expected to lead to reduced availabilities for aid. Grain
stocks held by the Western Europe sub-region amounted in 1991-1995
to approximately one-third of those held by major exporters.
60. The consequences of the Uruguay Round for food aid
flows from the region are expected to be mixed, and on balance
should not have much impact. Under the Agreement bona fide
food aid is exempt from the prohibition on export subsidies or
export subsidy reduction commitments. In addition, food aid could
become the only GATT-legal outlet for countries with agricultural
surpluses now that limits on the volume of subsidised exports
are in place.
61. The effects on market stability of a reduction in the
level of public stocks depends on the response of private stockholding.
Work at FAO suggests that the degree of replacement of public
from private stocks will be in the order of 40 percent, implying
a lower level of total stocks in the future. However, the larger
share of private in total stocks will make stockholding more responsive
to market needs.
62. The World Food Summit (WFS) draft Policy Statement
calls on all parties to reaffirm their commitment to policies
that will ensure the availability and stability of adequate food
supplies as well as access to an adequate diet for all. The WFS
draft Global Action Plan stresses the need for each region, sub-region
and country to choose its own strategy for attaining food security
since individual circumstances vary so widely.
63. Although the region is closer to the goal of food security
than any other, after the late 1980s it is characterised by an
extreme duality. While in some countries food insecurity was and
remains a marginal problem limited to pockets of the population,
in others, progress in the food security situation has tended
to slow and in some cases sharp declines have been observed. Due
to its economic importance, the region will continue to play an
important role in both reducing undernutrition in the world and
in contributing to a steady growth in the world economy and in
the developing countries in particular, sufficient to generate
employment and incomes.
64. Prominent in the region's concerns are the food security
problems and related difficulties faced by the economies in transition.
A prolongation of adverse conditions in those economies, increases
the risk of halting the pace of, or even reversing the economic
reforms necessary for sustained growth. Failure to revive productive
capacity in those economies and to create incomes and employment
will mean increasing the number of people vulnerable to food insecurity
and will prevent governments from putting in place the necessary
social safety mechanisms necessary to assist them. Continuing
dependence of those economies on foreign assistance will divert
scarce resources from other needy areas of the world.
65. In the CIT, food insecurity is the result of a deep
and prolonged recession following the collapse of the central
planning system and the initiation of market reforms. Economic
contraction resulted in mass unemployment and the collapse of
social safety nets and social support systems increasing the share
of the population with limited ability to access food. The breakdown
of marketing and distribution channels created local food shortages
and erratic supplies. Food supplies in some of the countries in
transition were negatively affected both by the near-collapse
of the agricultural sector as well as the sharp decline in the
export sectors that prevented imports of food to make up for the
production shortfalls.
66. Although transitional problems are not simply agriculture-sector
specific, it is imperative that the agricultural sector of the
economies in transition gets on the road to recovery both in order
to ensure food security of their populations and to stimulate
growth and improve wellbeing in the rural sectors and to stem
excessive and premature urbanisation. This is particularly true
for countries in which agriculture has a large share in economic
activity, exports and employment where agricultural growth can
be crucial for overall economic recovery.
67. Given the economic significance of the region, individual
country policies aiming at domestic targets influence food security
in the rest of the world through trade, investment and aid links.
A prosperous and growing region can be a major outlet for exports
from developing countries while at the same time providing resources
that contribute to the development and food security efforts of
those countries. The lowering of import barriers and the lowering
of domestic support called for under the AoA makes the potential
for expanded agricultural exports by developing countries even
stronger.
68. Western European countries in the region have in the
past been supplying a significant part of the cereals imported
by developing countries. In Western European countries, policies
towards agriculture have permitted producers to operate at a high
level of productivity, and to meet internal and external commercial
and concessional demand generally at declining real prices. Despite
the declines in agricultural support under the AoA, and possible
measures to contain negative environmental consequences from intensive
agriculture, countries in Western Europe are expected to continue
to be large exporters.
69. There is a great potential for the countries in transition
to reverse their current import status and turn into net exporters
by the year 2010. This potential can be unleashed through the
proper policy reforms which will revitalise the economy in general
and the agricultural sector in particular. With sustainable overall
growth, today's transition countries can become significant markets
for developing country products and providers instead of recipients
of financial and food aid. In addition to the much needed peace
and political stability, a stable macroeconomic environment is
necessary for investment and growth of all productive sectors.
For agriculture, the strengthening and expansion of institutional
reforms establishing a stable system of property and access rights
to resources appropriate for a market economy is a priority. Removing
obstacles to inter-regional trade movements will make the calculations
of costs and returns to farming much easier, and will prevent
the emergence of food shortages. Reforming the sectors up and
downstream to agricultural production away from monopolistic situations,
will greatly improve incentives to producers.
[The following text is provided to facilitate discussion in
the Regional Conference
on the targets and priority actions for food security within
the region and globally].
70. Pursuing the broad social, economic and human development
objectives through actions agreed at conferences already convened
during the 1990s will provide a more favourable overall environment
for making progress towards the goal of universal food security.
The countries of the European region therefore reaffirm their
commitment to the ideals, objectives and actions agreed at the
following conferences that will ease the task of ensuring food
for all, at all times: the World Summit for Children (1990); the
Conference on the Nutritional Rights of Man (Barcelona Declaration,
1992); the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
(UNCED, 1992); the FAO/WHO International Conference on Nutrition
(ICN, 1992); the Final Act of the General Agreement on Tariffs
and Trade (Uruguay Round, 1994); the United Nations Conference
on Population and Development (1994); the World Summit for Social
Development (Copenhagen Declaration, 1995); the Fourth World Conference
on Women (1995); the International Conference on Sustainable Contributions
of Fisheries to Food Security (Kyoto Declaration, 1995). The actions
to be agreed at the forthcoming Fourth Technical Conference on
Plant Genetic Resources will also help ensure universal food security.
71. The relationship between peace and food security is well understood by the citizens of Europe. The political and economic environment throughout Europe, so conducive to the goal of universal food security for 45 years, continues to be generally so for the TMEs, but could not be sustained by the other countries of the region. Since the initiation of the reform process, some countries in transition have achieved significant advances in macroeconomic stabilisation, economic liberalisation and openness, which have to be consolidated. But difficult, essential tasks remain in the majority of countries where structural and institutional reforms have proceeded very slowly, and inconsistently, not creating the enabling environment required for private sector emergence and efficient development. Wars and civil strife have contributed to the displacement and destitution of large numbers of people in the region and have caused the destruction of large parts of the productive base of the economies in the countries involved.
| 72. | a) | To achieve and maintain peace in present and potential war-torn areas, and ensure their reconstruction and rehabilitation; |
| b) | To ensure the political and social stability necessary to establish and strengthen confidence and support for universal food security; and | |
| c) | Promote a stable macroeconomic environment conducive to investment and sustainable growth, job creation, poverty alleviation and food security; |
at the national, sub-regional and regional levels, governments,
in cooperation with civil society and regional and international
organisations, will:
| 73. | a) | Implement peace initiatives that will put an end to ongoing conflicts and maintain the capacity to prevent new ones from erupting; |
| b) | Take coordinated emergency action to alleviate the hardships faced by victims of war and civil strife, including food aid and essential inputs for producing food; | |
| c) | Assess the need for the rehabilitation of the food system as part of the overall reconstruction and rehabilitation assessment, and coordinate the implementation of the agreed plan of action; | |
| d) | Embrace monetary, fiscal and trade policies that encourage savings and investment, promote sustainable growth in the production of goods and services, and reduce unemployment or under-employment of human resources, and, thereby, improve access to food; | |
| e) | Safeguard the basic rights of employees, including to earnings and salaries that enable them to purchase a nutritionally adequate food basket; and | |
| f) | Pursue and strengthen human-centred economic and social reforms that balance growth with social objectives. |
74. The social support systems in Europe which inter
alia provide access to food for those who are unable to find
work or who are unable to work range from excellent to totally
inadequate. In a few countries the level of support appears to
be higher than necessary to have access to a healthy diet. The
TMEs have been able to maintain their systems, although many of
them are seeking more cost effective ways of providing support,
and in some of these countries the systems do not yet ensure adequate
access to food for all those in need of assistance. Social protection
systems have come under severe stress in most transition countries
and food insecurity has gained ground in many of them, where the
deterioration of entitlements and public social services and safety
nets is widespread.
75. To ensure access to a nutritionally adequate diet for
those unable to produce or procure sufficient food.
at national, sub-regional and regional levels governments,
in cooperation with civil society and regional and international
organisations, will:
| 76. | a) | Identify, monitor and map the location of those who are undernourished or malnourished, using universally agreed minimal dietary energy standards; |
| b) | Assess the adequacy and efficiency of social support systems that deliver benefits to the vulnerable, and, as necessary, modify them so that all in need have access to a diet that will permit them to lead a healthy and productive life; | |
| c) | Share experiences in ensuring access to food for those with limited incomes, so as to improve efficiency and cost effectiveness of social support systems in ensuring access to a minimally adequate diet; | |
| d) | Promote nutritional education and communication activities to raise awareness of the links between diet and good health and reduce excessive, health-deleterious food consumption; and | |
| e) | Protect vulnerable groups during the economic restructuring process, and provide technical assistance, advice and funding for special relief programmes to assist the undernourished, especially those in the low-income countries. |
77. The amount of food needed to meet future regional demands
will increase slowly, especially after the short-term surge associated
with the resumption of economic growth in the transition countries.
The task of ensuring the availability of adequate food supplies
for the regional population therefore should not present a serious
problem. Instead, the region has the potential to become a more
important source of food for the rest of the world, as well as
a more important market. At present it is easier for food to move
within the European Union (EU) than between the EU and non-EU
members. Agreement has been reached on a scheduled reduction in
food trade barriers and in export subsidies on food products,
but new agreements will have to be negotiated before they will
be eliminated. The food system is highly developed in the TMEs,
especially in those who are members of the EU, where the level
of productivity is extremely high and massive quantities of food
are traded. On the other hand, the agricultural and food production
capacity in most transition countries has been severely reduced
and a massive recapitalisation of the sector is required. Here
the potential for productivity and trade gains are larger; those
who become members of the EU are likely to increase productivity
and trade before those who do not. However, support to food producers
has been reduced in most countries, especially in a number of
the CIT. Measures to protect the environment are being implemented
in a number of countries, but remain to be adopted in others.
| 78. | a) | To ensure the availability of adequate food supplies to meet regional needs and to contribute to food supplies and markets for the rest of the world; and |
| b) | To rehabilitate and achieve sustainable management of the natural resources and sustainable agricultural development. |
at the national, sub-regional and regional levels governments,
in cooperation with civil society and regional and international
organisations, will:
| 79. | a) | Reduce, harmonise and eventually remove the barriers to regional food trade, including the subsidies on food exports; |
| b) | Maintain adequate incentives for food producers to earn a fair return to labour and management, and to invest in productivity-enhancing, environmentally- friendly technology; | |
| c) | Harmonise producer and food price support systems so as to promote efficiency in the production of food within and beyond the region; | |
| d) | Support the maintenance or establishment of efficient systems to provide services to food producers, to produce and distribute inputs to them, and to market, transport, process and distribute food to consumers; | |
| e) | Formulate food reserves policies and encourage the maintenance of food reserves sufficient to ensure the role of reliable supplier; | |
| f) | Maintain health and quality control of food products, and provide training as necessary in meeting health and quality standards necessary for products to enter national, sub-regional, regional and international markets; | |
| g) | Maintain support for food and agricultural research, and establish cooperation mechanisms for rebuilding agricultural research systems and capabilities in CIT through collaboration with public and private research institutions of other countries in the region; | |
| h) | Pursue where necessary the restructuring of land ownership and control, complete the necessary legal reforms governing rights and equitable access to land ownership and use, and facilitate market-based land transactions; | |
| i) | Assess the extent and forms of environmental degradation of agricultural natural resources, and ensure the necessary action to improve the quality of the environment and the sustainability of agricultural and rural development; and | |
| j) | Strengthen the capacity to assess the impact of sector-specific policies and actions and developments in international food markets on food security within the region and beyond. |
80. The policies and actions of the European countries
have had, and will continue to have, a major influence on the
ability of the rest of the world to reach the goal of universal
food security. The region includes the countries which devote
the largest share of national income to development assistance,
and which stand ready to share their experience at home and abroad
in ensuring access to food for all, the availability of adequate
food supplies and in promoting stability of food supplies. In
addition, large quantities of food aid and assistance are provided
to those in need who live within or outside the region. The agricultural
and trade policies of the countries of the region directly affect
global food availability and global price stability. The ability
of developing countries to export to markets in the region affects
their development prospects and their ability to import food.
The region will continue to be a major source of food supplies
for developing countries both in commercial and concessional terms,
the single most important market for their agricultural exports,
and a major source of development assistance and other finance.
Narrowing the barriers to food trade between the region and the
rest of the world, and eliminating export subsidies on food, will
facilitate the task of reaching the goal of universal food security.
| 81. | a) | To create a global macroeconomic and international trade environment conducive to food security throughout the world; and |
| b) | To contribute towards making the world food market a stable and dependable source of supplies, including during periods of emergency. |
at the regional and international levels governments, in cooperation
with civil society and regional and international organisations,
will:
| 82. | a) | Coordinate macroeconomic policies so as to promote a favourable economic climate for sustained progress towards universal food security; |
| b) | Reduce and eventually eliminate food trade barriers, subsidies on food exports and internal taxes on imported agricultural commodities; | |
| c) | Maximise the efficiency of ODA in promoting food security, agricultural productivity and overall development in developing countries, with priority to be given to the LIFDCs, including assistance in gaining access to technological advances; | |
| d) | Monitor closely developments in the world food markets and in developing countries, and ensure at all times the adequacy of food stocks; | |
| e) | Maintain WTO-compatible public sector food security reserves and avoid policies which discourage stockholding by the private sector; | |
| f) | Guarantee timely, sufficient and adequate food aid, agricultural inputs or other forms of assistance to those countries that may be adversely affected by calamities and emergencies; | |
| g) | Provide support to compensatory financing and other mechanisms which would ensure greater price stability and better terms of trade for developing country exports; | |
| h) | Develop clear rules related to food quality and safety and prevent such rules from becoming instruments for protection, and contribute to multilateral action for the improvement of procedures and agreements on standards and measures for food safety and in the protection of human health and animal welfare; and support private and public sector actions to improve and strengthen food control procedures and marketing standards; | |
| i) | Support the activities of the international research centres performing research relevant to food and agriculture; establish cooperation between research centres in the region and those in developing countries; and | |
| j) | Pursue or promote multilateral negotiations on the role of environmental considerations in trade policies. |