PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

General Introduction

Standpoint 1: It is difficult for China to supply the foods needed in the future by depending mainly on its own resources.

Standpoint 2: China is able to solve the contradiction between the food demand and the foods supply by depending mainly on its own agricultural resources and endeavors.

China is a big country with 1/5 of world population. While the land, water and plant nutritional resources are very limited, its population is going on increasing. Whether China can supply the foods needed in the future by depending the limited resources is the very question that has been attentively focused by the experts from China and world since the middle 1990s. To the question, there are 2 diametrically different answers:

It Is Difficult for China to Supply the Foods Needed in the Future by Depending Mainly on Its Own Resources;

China Is Able to Solve the Contradiction between the Food Supply and Food Demand in the Future by Depending Mainly on Its Own Resources and Endeavors. (page home)

Standpoint 1: It is difficult for China to supply the foods needed in the future by depending mainly on its own resources.

Mr. Lyst Brown, the director of the America’s World Observation Institute, representing his side, believe: “If China (referring to Mainland China, same as below) continue the process of modernization, it is almost definite that China will follow the Japan and South Korea’s models: s to import more and more grain. The great demand of imported grain will soon outnumber the total exported grain available from the international markets at the present prices; and change the grain markets from buyers’ markets into sellers’ markets. Under the condition of globalization of international economy, the rising in Chinese grain prices will result in the rising in international grain prices, the shortage of Chinese cultivated lands will lead to the shortage of world’s cultivated lands; the Chinese water shortage will affect the world as well.” The standpoint is based on:

1. Chinese population is estimated to reach up 1.5 billion in the year of 2017 and 1.66 billion in the peak explosion year of 2045;

2. The development in economy will in large scale improve the citizens’ food structures, which require the large-scale increase in the consumption of sugars, vegetable oils, wines, meat, eggs, milk, fishes and indirect grain consumption. The average personal grain consumption will increase from the present 300 kilograms per year to more than 400 kilograms in the future;

3. The increase in both population and average personal grain consumption will increase the total grain consumption from 0.346 billion tons in 1990 to the estimated 0.479 billion tons in the year of 2040;

4. If China follows Japan and South Korea’s roads of industrialization, half of the present farmlands in Mainland China will be no longer existing due to the occupation which are unavoidable in the developments of industry, with the construction of transportation facilities, the urbanization and the construction of residences. The average personal grain fields will fall from the 0.08 hectares in 1990 to the 0.03 hectares in 2030, and so does the multiple cropping index;

5. "At present, most regions in China are bewildered by the inadequacy of water resources; and the water demand has outnumbered the water supply of the existing rivers and water-reserving stratums. The estimated water demand in future China will increase rapidly. China will have to face the difficulties of the large scale of land occupation and the industrial and living water consumption out of the irrigation water; if China continue the high-speed industrialization."

6.The consumption of chemical fertilizers in China has, at present, topped the world's level, while the grain yield-raising effects are far poorer than those in the United States of America, furthermore, in the coming years, China will not possibly have a big increase in the investments of the production of chemical fertilizers; together with soil-erosion, decrease of organic matters in soil and air pollution, these facts all of which will make it impossible to significantly increase the 2 major investments of irrigation projects and fertilizer production , which  had , in the past decades, obviously raised the grain yields. In fact, the investment in the irrigation projects is probable to decrease.

7. The decreases in both cultivated lands and irrigation capacities and the limitations of the fertilizer consumption and the yield-raising effects will the result in the fall in Chinese grain yields. To estimate conservatively, in the year of 2030, Chinese grain yield will decrease by at least 20%, that means a fall from the 0.34 billion tons in 1990 to the estimated 0.272 billion tons in 2030;

8. Under the circumstances, the food supply will not meet the food demand by the shortage of up to 0.207 billion tons, even we keep the average personal demands from increasing; the estimated 0.207 billion tons of food supply gap is approximately equal to the total exported grains in the world in the year of 1994.

9. If we further take the consumption demands of cattle and family-raised livestock by the new rich population of sever hundred millions in consideration, then the total demands over grains will top up to 0.614 billion tons and the grain shortage will reach up to 0.396 billion tons, times as much as the present total exported grains in the world;

10. The gigantic grain shortage will have to be made up by the imported grain, and the great demand over the imported grain will increase, in high degree, the world grain prices. (page home)

Standpoint 2: China is able to solve the contradiction between the food demand and the foods supply by depending mainly on its own agricultural resources and endeavors.

Many experts, both in China and from outside China share their findings in analyzing Chinese population and foods demand in the future with Mr. Lyst Brown; but they have different estimations about China's food supply capacity from that of Mr. Lyst Brown: They believe that though it is very harsh for Chinese food supply conditions, there will be considerate grain's yield-raising capacities, which, through China's own efforts, will in general, meet the foods demand by the estimated 1.6 billions people.

1. The existing China's cultivated land area is 0.133 billion hectares, but not the 90.8 million hectares which Mr. Lyst Brown used as his supporting figure. The situation would be assuring if we, from now on, protect the existing cultivated lands attentively and carefully together with the potential land area of 446.7 thousand hectares to be developed; we estimate that in the process of the industrialization and urbanization, the land occupation by them is approximately equal to the newly-developed land areas; thus we can keep 0.123 billion hectares in existing. Divided by the estimated 1.6 billion people in future China, the average personal 0.077 hectares of cultivated land areas are far above those of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province;

2. According to the researching results, the present 155% Multiple Cropping Index of cultivated lands in China is potentially probable to be increased up to 160-170%, 1% of which is equal to an increase of 1.333 million hectares of seeded areas;

3. Thirds of the present cultivated lands in China are of low yields with an unit yield rate of 3.6 tons per hectare and rice yield of 4.35 tons per hectare; while average unit yield in developed countries is 5.93 tons per hectare with the corn yield of 6.42 tons per hectare. Therefore there is hidden with a great potential to raise the unit grain yield rate.

4. The water resources' shortage is existing, and so is the water waste and the low water utilization efficiency; the effective utilization rate of the irrigation water is as low as 40%; so through the all-sided measures including the construction of water conservancy and the adoption of water-saving, it is absolutely possible to get an increase of 10-20% in water utilization rate. Combining with the water exploration and inter-basin water diversion, we can aim at an irrigation area of 52 million hectares in the year of 2000, which is to be eventually increased to 67 million hectares; the present recycling rate of industry-consumed water remains low at 30% compared with the high 70% in developed countries. Similarly, the potential to raise recycling rate is great.

5. The major reasons why the benefits from the applications chemical fertilizers in China is comparatively low are that the organic fertilizers make up too low proportions; the potash fertilizers are not fully used among the mineral fertilizers. Through the increasing of organic fertilizers utilization and the conduction of balance fertilization, we can, to high extent, improve the effects out of the application of chemical fertilizers.

6. Combining the analyses of different factors, we can foresee the a grain yield of 0.696-0.7 billion tons in the middle 2020s, which can feed 1.548 billion people on the basis of 450 kilograms per person and on the condition that cultivated lands are intensively-invested and the bumper harvest year is met. If considerately-invested and meeting a regular yield, the total grain yield would be 0.666-0.75 billion, which can feed only 1.48 billion people. When low-invested and meeting a yield-falling year, it would be 0.639-0.648 billion tons, which can feed 1.42 billion people. The gap between the grain yield and the estimated grain consumption will be as much as 0.05 billion tons.

7. The greatest potential grain yield out of China's agricultural resources: supposing the biggest seeded area of 0.193 billion hectares with the grain-yielding area of 0.14 billion hectares and an irrigated land of 0.069 billion hectares and an unit yield of 0.66 billion tons per hectare; the total grain yield can reach up to 0.64 billion tons, which is expected to feed 1.66 billion people on the basis of 500 kilograms' grain consumption per person.

8. According to the analyses over the balance between the demands for foods and the foods supply and the need to adjust grain varieties, the future China's imported grain will have to be controlled below 30-50 million tons, which makes up less than 10% of China's total grain yield. The measure is both necessary and feasible. (page home)