BSE: Impact on Global Meat Markets

16/10/01


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Table of Contents

BSE: Impact on Global Meat Markets

.... Beef Trade Stumbles to a Halt

The World Meat Economy: Influencing Factors

WORLD FOOD MODEL

History Revisited: 1996 FAO BSE Simulation Results

What actually happened?

Drop in EU Beef Consumption: More Acute in 2001 than 1996

EU BSE Price Shocks

Potential market impacts: Scenario 1 assumptions

PPT Slide

Consumption effects of the BSE Crisis ( % change with respect to baseline scenario)

Trade Impact of the BSE Crisis ( % change with respect to baseline scenario)

World Price Effects of the BSE Crisis ( % change with respect to baseline scenario)

Meat and bone meal MBM use in EU

Meat and bone meal MBM use in EU

Conclusions

More General Consequences: Policy Implications-- 3 million tonnes of beef in EU intervention stocks?

Other Consequences: Unmeasured but with a Cost

Author: John C. Baize

Email: Nancy.Morgany@fao.org

Home Page: http://www.fao.org/AGA/AGAP/FRG/FEEDSAFETY/feedsafety.HTM