The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD) and the Government of Andhra Pradesh are working jointly on an innovative foresight study on agroecology in the state of Andhra Pradesh, India.

The objectives of the two-year long study is first to explore the implications of various scenarios for the future of agriculture in Andhra (agroecology scenario vs conventional agriculture scenario). Second, the study aims to contribute to the state-level, national and international policy debates and research on agroecology and the future of food and agriculture.

Since 2016, the Government of Andhra Pradesh (GoAP) has engaged in the scaling-up of Climate Resilient Natural Farming, an approach to non-chemical farming based on regenerative agriculture principles. Natural farming, with its emphasis on healthy soils and landscape regeneration, intensively biodiverse productions, no synthetic pesticides or fertilizers, Self Help Groups, and farmer-centred learning, is considered part of the science, movement and practice of agroecology.

Climate Resilient Natural Farming is now practiced by about 500,000 farmers in Andhra Pradesh, with the ambition to scale to 6 million farmers by 2024. It has attracted attention and debate nationally and generated attention of a few other states in India, some foreign countries and international institutions. In this context, it is important to explore the implications of such option based on rigorous evidence and a multi-stakeholder process.

The foresight study AgroEco2050 in Andhra Pradesh intends to explore what impacts on farmer livelihoods, land use, productivities, nutrition, public finances and other aspects could be expected by 2050 if Andhra Pradesh transitions to a “Natural Farming at scale scenario”, compared to impacts of a “deepening of conventional agriculture scenario”. The methodology is based on CIRAD’s global foresight “Agrimonde: Scenario and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050”. It will be carried out using collective expertise with the quantitative tool/model “Agribiom”. An important and time-consuming data collection and modeling since the 1970s is currently being carried out by the research team in many fields (human and animal populations, GDP, land use, land and labour productivities, diets…). An interactive interface is being built to screen and discuss past evolutions and future scenarios with a stakeholder expert group (policy makers, scientists, civil society, farmers) during four workshops throughout 2020.

The study, co-constructed with policy makers of Andhra Pradesh, will support evidence-based policy decisions in the State. Its findings will also be important not just for Andhra Pradesh, but also for other Indian states and internationally.

Click here and here to read more about Natural Farming in Andhra Pradesh. 
Click here to read the impact assessment of Natural Farming in Andhra Pradesh.

Photo credit: Francisco Martinez