The times of cheap food are over – for ever?
To feed growing populations – expected to reach 9.1 billion in 2050 – the world has to increase food production by 70 percent. And in the developing countries as a group, food production has to increase by 100 percent, representing a tremendous challenge: doubling food production under existing constraints such as the frequent occurrences of natural disasters, the negative impact of climate change, degradation of lands, scarcity of natural resources, especially land and water in the Asia-Pacific, and their competition with bio-energy crops.
In Asia, the green revolution introduced modern varieties of cereals, especially wheat and rice, expansion of irrigated areas, rapid increase of chemical fertilizer use and farm mechanization. As a result, cereal production tripled in 40 years between 1961 and 2000.
The massive increase in food production resulted in declines of world market prices for cereals in real terms by 40 percent and benefitted consumers, especially the poor. As a consequence, the proportion of hungry people in the world fell from 35 percent in 1970 to 17 percent in 2000.
However, food is no longer a cheap commodity that is easily available everywhere to everyone. Instead, food prices will continue to rise over the next 20 years, and become a source of conflict which influences social and political stability, and human security of the world, if we fail to attain needed production growth.
We need to increase investment in agriculture. We need investment in agricultural research and extension, inputs supply, infrastructure, value chain development, capacity building as well as other support services and safety nets. FAO expects that 80 percent of growth in crop production in developing countries would come from crop intensification, in particular higher yields and increase in cropping intensity. Only 20 percent of the needed additional food production will come from the expansion of arable lands.
FAO estimates that the Asia-Pacific region requires agricultural investments (both public and private sector) of US$ 120 billion annually towards year 2050. This represents a 50 percent increase in agricultural investment compared to the present level of US$ 80 billion.
Last year’s L’Aquila G8 Summit placed agriculture and food security back to the top of the priority agenda of the world community, and resulted in pledges of over 20 billion US dollars to support sustainable food production in developing countries.
This momentum should be maintained and further promoted even if food prices come down temporarily while the financial crisis eases. Indeed, the real food security problem lies in the future and on our future generations.
We have a huge task ahead of us. We need to accomplish this task. I fully believe that we can attain the goal if we are united, and work together in partnership. Young and old, rich and poor, bringing together all concerned in society and promoting a stronger sense of solidarity as we are all dependent on each other on our planet.
The target is attainable if we utilize the wisdom gained from past experiences and unite ourselves in concerted efforts. It is our duty to produce more food at an affordable price to meet the nutrient requirement of all citizens on the planet, in particular for disadvantaged sections of our societies, and for our children and future generations.
Hiroyuki Konuma
