[Welcome, everybody !! This is the first message posted in Conference 2, which is expected to run until 25 June. We hope the conference will be interesting, constructive and enriching......The Moderator]

This is Dag Lindgren. I am a professor of Forest Genetics in northern Sweden.

Rotation time:
It is possible that many developing countries have one advantage for the application of radical biotechnology over many developed countries from one aspect, i.e. the often short rotation time. Forests around me have rotation time in the magnitude of a century. If genetics of such trees is changed, it may have consequences which do not become evident for many decades. I have trust in conventional forest tree breeding, the improved trees we plant will not be that different from "the best" of existing mature trees. But maybe conventional breeding progress offers sufficient opportunities for progress per forest rotation time, more dramatic progress than is possible with efficient conventional breeding could make the progress less safe because of lack of relevant field experience. There may be uncertainties on the effects of radical biotech because of our long rotation time. As reproduction is a strong force (the basis for evolution), there are reasons for suspicions about the reliability of claims of sterile ("safe", "terminator genes") trees unable to transfer their genes (and thus confining the genetic change to the planted forests), when then second half of the rotation time has not been seen.

Specific changes in end products (e.g. in wood quality) are of much interest only for short-rotation crops. For long-rotation forests the future market seems too uncertain (in particular considering that competing short rotation crops may achieve similar targets faster). Plans covering many decades have limited trust-worthiness, so even to carry out long term experiments with "new brave trees" will have its difficulties. Also species like Pinus radiata and Pinus taeda may have problematic long rotation time. Working with ten year rotation crops, the rotation time appears less problematic. Tests over a rotation period can be made, and will probably be brought to an end once initiated. Investments in breeding efforts of short rotation crops are more profitable and able to draw capital compared to long rotation crops, there the driving forces for tree improvement usually are more complex. As the rotation time of planted forests is often shorter in developing countries, the room for "radical" biotech may be larger in developing warm countries than in developed cool countries.

Dag Lindgren
Professor- Forest Genetics
Dept of Forest Genetics and Plant Breeding
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Umeå, Sweden
[email protected]

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