Изменение климата

Definitions

Adaptation: Process of adjustment to actual or expected climate change and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate change and its effects. (Worldbank)

Adaptive capacity: Adaptive capacity: Ability of systems, institutions, humans, and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, take advantage of opportunities, and respond to consequences of climate impacts.

Adaptation measures:

Agrometeorology:

Agricultural drought: 

Climate change: A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (for example, using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

Climate finance:

Climate resilience:

Climate risk: ’The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain (...). Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard (...).’ (IPCC 2014a, p. 40)

Climate services:

Climate rationale:

Earth Observation (EO):

Early Warning System:

End User:

Exposure:

Extreme heat event: Three or more days of above-average temperatures, generally defined as passing a certain threshold (for example, above the 85th percentile for average daily temperature in a year).


Extreme weather event: Event that is rare at a particular place and time of year. Definitions of rare vary, but an extreme weather event would normally fall in the 10th or 90th percentile of a probability density function estimated from observations. The characteristics of extreme weather vary from place to place in an absolute sense. When a pattern of extreme weather persists for some time, such as a season, it may be classified as an extreme climate event, especially if it yields an average or total that is itself extreme (for example, drought or heavy rainfall over a season).

GEF: Global Environmental Facility

Hazard: The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources.

LDCF: Least Developed Country Fund

LTO: Lead Technical Officer

Monitoring:
 
Modulation:

M&E: Monitoring and Evaluation system
 
MIS: Management Information Systems

Mitigation measures:
 
NAPA: National Adaptation Programme of Action

Projected climate change:

PPG: Project Design

PIF: Project Identification Stage

PIR: Project Implementation Reviews

Rapid-onset event: Event such as cyclones and floods which take place in days or weeks (in contrast to slow-onset climate changes that occur over long periods of time).

Resilience: Capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event, trend, or disturbance by responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity, and structure while maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation.

SCCF: Special Climate Change Fund

Screening:

Slow-onset climate change: Changes in climate parameters—such as temperature, precipitation, and associated impacts, such as water availability and crop production declines—that occur over long periods of time (in contrast to rapid-onset climate hazards, such as cyclones and floods, which take place in days or weeks).

Stressor: Event or trend that has important effect on the system exposed and can increase vulnerability to climate-related risk.

Vulnerability: Propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected.

Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.

 

 

 

Weather forecasting: Refers to appropriate climate information distribution through an efficient delivery system that can alert food officials to assure food and water security long before the actual natural hazard sets in. 

Risk screening process

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Risk Classification

Very high risk: The outcome of the project will be jeopardized by climate change, with a potential for severe impacts of significant irreversibility. Climate-related risks are likely to result in financial, environmental, and social disruption and/or systemic failures. Adaptation limits may be reached, or significant loss and damage will occur. An in-depth climate risk/impact assessment is mandatory for all very high risk projects in order to adequately identify measures to reduce risks. Measures to manage or reduce climate risks should be identified and applied. 

High risk: The project area and interventions are highly likely to be impacted by climate change. Project outcomes may be undermined by climate change, and adaptation measures may not be readily available. Financial, environmental and social disruption and/or systemic failures cannot be excluded. Incorporation of climate risk management activities are likely to increase resilience and adaptive capacity of households, infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems. An in-depth climate impact/risk assessment is highly recommended in order to adequately identify measures to reduce risks. Measures to manage or reduce climate risks should be identified and applied.

Moderate risk: Impact from climate change may occur, but will be limited in space and time, transient or manageable. Financial, environmental and social disruption and/or systemic failure is unlikely. The system has the capacity to manage volatility, shocks, stressors or changing climate trends. The project is expected to be moderately sensitive to climate risks and thus requires a basic integration of climate issues to be undertaken to ensure that the risks identified are fully understood and addressed during the project design phase. This process should result in practical adjustments under the project to reduce losses and damages from climate hazards to target groups and interventions and capitalize on the opportunities to strengthen local risk-management capacities. In order to effectively identify appropriate adjustments, further assessment of climate risks can be carried out at subsequent stages of project development and should be monitored throughout project development implementation.

No/Low Risk: No or low impact from climate change is expected based on the best available information. Financial, environmental and social impacts and/or systemic failure appears very unlikely. The project is not likely to be vulnerable to climate risks and impacts and thus voluntary measures could be incorporated into the project during design and implementation phases based on the screening recommendations. No assessment is required, but it is recommended to monitor risk throughout the project development.

Modulation of climate risk: The modulation of climate risk from weather-related natural hazards. The modulation of risk by the project can be determined as “High”, “Moderate” or “Low” as defined below:

 

High modulation: The modulation of climate risk by the proposed project interventions is fully adequate and effective in addressing the identified climate risks. All interventions and resilience measures are fully informed by evidence of current and future climate risks and modulation measures have been integrated to the highest possible extent.

Moderate modulation: The modulation of climate risk by the proposed project interventions is recognized but not fully adequate. While resilience and modulation measures are present in the current interventions, further measures could be taken to fully modulate the climate risks identified. 

Low modulation:
The modulation of climate risk by the proposed project interventions is insufficient or not present in the current proposal. If further resilience and modulation measures are not considered, the project is at risk of failing to address climate implications on project implementation and the implications may undermine the results of the project.
 

Agrometeorology

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Agrometeorology:

Agricultural drought: 

Climate services:

End User:


Exposure:


Extreme heat event: Three or more days of above-average temperatures, generally defined as passing a certain threshold (for example, above the 85th percentile for average daily temperature in a year).

Extreme weather event: Event that is rare at a particular place and time of year. Definitions of rare vary, but an extreme weather event would normally fall in the 10th or 90th percentile of a probability density function estimated from observations. The characteristics of extreme weather vary from place to place in an absolute sense. When a pattern of extreme weather persists for some time, such as a season, it may be classified as an extreme climate event, especially if it yields an average or total that is itself extreme (for example, drought or heavy rainfall over a season).

Hazard: The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources.

Monitoring:
 
Modulation:

Projected climate change:

Rapid-onset event: Event such as cyclones and floods which take place in days or weeks (in contrast to slow-onset climate changes that occur over long periods of time).

Slow-onset climate change: Changes in climate parameters—such as temperature, precipitation, and associated impacts, such as water availability and crop production declines—that occur over long periods of time (in contrast to rapid-onset climate hazards, such as cyclones and floods, which take place in days or weeks).

Stressor: Event or trend that has important effect on the system exposed and can increase vulnerability to climate-related risk.
Vulnerability: Propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected.
Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.

Weather forecasting: Refers to appropriate climate information distribution through an efficient delivery system that can alert food officials to assure food and water security long before the actual natural hazard sets in. 

Weather advisories: