The methodological framework

In the first step of the methodology we worked with a regional climate model (PRECIS, developed by Hadley Center) in order to add small-scale detailed information of future climate change impacts to the large-scale projections of Global Climate Models.

The high-resolution climate change scenarios downscaled at the national level, in particular time series of temperature and precipitation projections to the 2030 horizon were integrated into a quantitative analysis of the livelihood effect of climate change, building on the notion of vulnerability to food insecurity and using an analytical model developed by the Agricultural Economics Division (ESA) based on rural national household datasets. The model allows characterizing vulnerability and identifying indicators associated with highest levels of vulnerability, leading to a detailed profiling of vulnerable household groups.

The third step involves using the results of the analysis of vulnerability to analyze the implications at policy level and provide recommendations for improvements in the design and targeting of policy responses that address the impacts of climate change on household food security. This phase of the project will be conducted in-country. It includes identifying what instruments should be promoted to increase households’ ability to cope with the impacts of climate change on food security and adapt to climate change and what policies, institutions and multi-level arrangements are needed to support vulnerable households.

KEY ANALYTICAL QUESTIONS

  • How does climate change affect access to food at household level?
  • How does household vulnerability to food insecurity evolve as a result of climate change?
  • How will vulnerability be distributed as a result of climate change?
  • What policy instruments to increase the resilience of vulnerable groups to deal with the impact of climate change on food security?
  • How to improve the design and targeting of policy responses to address the impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups? 
last updated:  Tuesday, January 8, 2013