Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods' Adaptation Approaches (AMICAF)
Component 1: Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture (Philippines)
The first component involves the generation of spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and a robust assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture using FAO's new tool called Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (MOSAICC). MOSAICC is an integrated package of models for assessing the impacts of climate change on agriculture, including the variations in crop yields and their effects on national economies.
Component 1 uses three modules of MOSAICC and a newly developed economic model.
The Climate component (a MOSAICC module) facilitates the preparation of statistically downscaled climate data using an adaptation of a portal developed by the EU ENSEMBLES project. Local partner: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services (PAGASA). Model partner: Santander Meteorology Group, University of Cantabria.
The Hydrology component (a MOSAICC module) estimates water resources under future climate conditions and uses STREAM, a grid-based precipitation-runoff model, to simulate the discharge rate in large catchment areas. Local partner: University of the Philippines - National Institute of Geological Sciences (UPNIGS). Model partners: Water Insight and Wageningen University.
The Crops component (a MOSAICC module) simulates crop yields under future climate change and technological progress scenarios. It uses WABAL (crop specific water balance model), the industrial version of FAO's AgroMetShell. Local partner: Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice).
The Economy component makes use of a newly developed Provincial Agricultural Market (PAM) Model to evaluate the economic impacts of future crop yields and water resources projections. Local partner: National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA).
MOSAICC with Provincial Agricultural Market (PAM) Model