Evidence and impacts of climate variability in the project target regions
The impacts of climate change are of particular concern in Bangladesh, where large parts of the population, especially small farmers and fishermen, are chronically exposed and vulnerable to a range of natural hazards, the number and intensity of which are steadily increasing. Due to climate change average temperature in the country is predicted to increase 1°C by 2030 and 1.4 °C by 2050. Though Monsoon precipitation is likely to increase 6.8 % by 2050, but changes in its temporal and spatial distribution pattern are going to have worst impact on agriculture production.
Impacts of climate variability on agriculture and consequences on other sectors are already evident in the North-West (Barind tract) and coastal regions. Both regions are highly susceptible to current climate variability and anticipated future climate change. As a result of climate change significant future yield reductions are very likely. A number of other factors, such as limited access to agricultural markets and stagnating or declining income in certain areas would contribute to an enhanced risk of food insecurity. Limitations of existing coping strategies to future climate change would make the livelihoods activities more vulnerable. Respective adaptation and disaster risk management options have to be identified, tested and integrated into comprehensive national food security strategies and policies, in order to enhance food security under a changing climate and related disasters.
Characterists in the NW region (Barind tract)
- average rainfall 1400-1500 mm/year (80% during monsoon- June to September)
- drought-prone area with frequent severe droughts causing substantial reduction in food production, e.g. 1997 drought: 1 million tons of food grain (mainly T.Aman) lost, entailing a loss of around US$ 500 million.
- periodical droughts associated with late arrival or early withdrawal of monsoon rains, as well as intermittent dry spells coinciding with critical stages of T. Aman rice affect wide range of crops (e.g. broadcast and transplanted Aman, Aus, jute)
- other associated: groundwater depletion due to excessive irrigation, drinking water scarcity etc.
Characteristics in the Southern coastal zone
- extreme vulnerable to cyclonic storms and related heavy rains and storm surges, peak cyclone intensity projected to increase by 5-10% and rainfall by 20-30% due to climate change
- 85% of population depends on agriculture (63% nationally)
- adverse effects of cyclones, coastal flooding and salinity on agriculture, livestock and fishery sectors in all seasons
- ~1.2 million ha arable land affected by soil salinity, tidal flooding, direct inundation by saline water and movement of saline ground water during dry season. Inundation of brackish water for shrimp farming is key cause for secondary salinization of coastal lands. The severity of salinity problem has increased and is expected to further increase due to sea level rise along with enhanced coastal flooding.