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1. assuming a continuation of the present level of action and policy environment ('status quo')

2. assuming sustained environmental campaigns and a heightened role for conservation than is currently the case ('better')

3. assuming specified deterioration in policy and action related to conservation ('worse')

Scenario/driving forces

Protected areas

Production Forestry sector

Community management

'Status quo'

Increase in area under nominal protection

Management of most PA will remain weak and 'paper parks' will proliferate.

Funding requirements climb and may not be met

Need for additional commitment to training, extension and other services

Significant opportunities to 'capture' biodiversity in PA possibly based on existing or new reviews may be missed.

Category VI will slowly become more common.

Conflicts with local communities will proliferate

Forest exploitation continues

Some improvements to forestry practices reduce impacts on productions forests.

* '(conflict with rural communities will continue.

Conservation areas still perceived as 'islands'.

Industrial plantations may reduce pressure on natural forests.

Economic development may reduce pressure on NTFP

Forest department culture continues to be largely focused on production issues.

Forestry policy and legislation continues to exclude local communities

Minor policy or legal changes lead to only modest conservation and community development gains.

Illegal forest colonisation continues to follow logging operations.


Sustained and equitable economic growth

Switch to secondary and tertiary economic activities


Growth in NGO activity

Media receptive to environmental concerns

International obligations, e.g. CBD

Increase in PA networks, based on existing or new scientific studies

PA network design improves

Nature of some Pas will change to accommodate people's needs more and Category VI sites become common; bioregional management developed

Considerable increase in costs, reflecting higher investments in staffing, etc..

Urgent need to address staffing and training requirements

Management of existing PA will improve

Conservation integrated into other sectors.

Much improved management and strict environmental standards will reduce logging impacts.

All logging in natural forest may be banned

Industrial forestry shifts to plantations.

Plantations will be based on mixtures or mosaics with natural forest/agriculture

International pressures (e.g. certification will augment internal demands for conservation.

Forest Department culture changes to accommodate broader vision.

Government policy shifts from industrial forestry/national economy focus towards a conservation/rural development focus.

Substantial increase of proportion of forests under community management

Effective representation of local communities

Informal community management legitimised and form basis for transition strategies


Economic collapse


Social upheaval

International trade war

Collapse of tourism industry

Rural poverty

Inequitable land distribution

Some increase in area covered expected but existing scientific work ignored so biodiversity representation will remain patchy.

Effectiveness will drop away as inadequate legal, administrative support provided by government

PA will cease to have conservation value, paper parks will proliferate, encroachment will increase

Down stream impacts will increase e.g. poorer water security, diminishing NTFP

Strict protection models based on a top-down approach will continue to be the norm.

Increased conflict with local communities

Increased conversion of natural forests to other land uses.

Impacts of logging natural forests not stemmed

Priority conservation areas lost.

Conflict with local communities.

Failure to meet development needs of local communities.

Forest Department culture remains focused on narrow vision.

Forestry overwhelmed by external macro-economic and international factors, community forest management marginalized.

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