GFPM models the flow of wood from roundwood through intermediate products to final products such as paper and sawnwood, as shown in Figure C1.
Figure C1. Wood/non-wood material flows
Every effort was made to use FAO data in the development of the model. However, in some cases these data are not consistent across products, e.g., where the data on the volume of commodities produced from industrial roundwood imply (based on the model's input-output coefficients) that not enough industrial roundwood is produced in the region to support the given production of downstream commodities.
In calibrating the current version of the GFPM for the base year, priority was given to having plausible input-output coefficients. When adjustments in data were needed, changes were made to the data considered least reliable. Relative data reliability was assessed as follows (from highest to lowest reliability):
1. trade data for all commodities
2. production data for newsprint, paper and paperboard
3. production data for sawnwood, plywood and veneer, particle board, and fibreboard
4. production data for industrial roundwood.
Input-output coefficients were set according to industry experts' judgement, seconded by official statistics. Attention was also given to the effect of the input-output coefficients on manufacturing costs, which are the costs of non-fibre inputs in different regions.
Some of the largest adjustments in production were required for woodpulps. Accordingly, the capacity data for wood pulps in the Capacity--2 sheet of the model was set to be at least equal to estimated production and a large number, such as 999999 was entered as an upper bound, as a reminder that there are problems with the official statistics for these commodities. For other fibre pulp and waste paper (which are supply commodities), production was estimated without an upper bound in the Supply sheet.
In order to check the reliability of production statistics, estimated production was derived from product production. Consumption of different pulp types was derived from the production of paper and the input-output coefficients. Consumption of industrial roundwood (sawlogs and pulpwood) was then derived from the production of solid wood products and pulp. Finally, production of industrial roundwood was computed as:
PRODUCTION = CONSUMPTION + EXPORTS - IMPORTS (1)
For example, Table C1 shows how fibre inputs are estimated from data on paper production and input-output coefficients. Then, in Table C2, pulp production is obtained from estimated pulp consumption and data on imports and exports. Thirdly, industrial roundwood consumption is estimated in Table C3 from estimated data on pulp production and statistics on sawnwood and panel production. Finally, the production of industrial roundwood is estimated in Table C4 from the consumption estimate and import-export statistics.
Estimates of industrial roundwood production derived in this way were compared with production statistics for all countries in the Asia-Pacific region and the major producer countries elsewhere. Where large discrepancies occurred, the input-output coefficients were re-examined or the production estimates were used in preference to the production statistics, until a reasonable compromise between the recorded statistics and the internal consistency of the model (with sensible input-output coefficients) could be found.
Table C1. Fibre needed for producing paper in Asia in 1994
Input Code |
Output Code |
Manufacturing Coefficient |
Output Quantity (000MT) |
Required Input (000MT) |
87 |
91 |
0.08 |
727 |
58 |
88 |
91 |
0.02 |
727 |
15 |
89 |
91 |
0.58 |
727 |
422 |
90 |
91 |
0.45 |
727 |
327 |
87 |
92 |
0.03 |
7,734 |
232 |
88 |
92 |
0.20 |
7,734 |
1,547 |
89 |
92 |
0.59 |
7,734 |
4,563 |
90 |
92 |
0.34 |
7,734 |
2,630 |
87 |
93 |
0.02 |
18,442 |
369 |
88 |
93 |
0.09 |
18,442 |
1,660 |
89 |
93 |
0.70 |
18,442 |
12,909 |
90 |
93 |
0.35 |
18,442 |
6,455 |
Note: Bold characters = input data.
Table C2. Required production of pulp in Asia in 1994
Input code |
Input Used (000MT) |
Imports (000MT) |
Exports (000MT) |
Production (000MT) |
87 |
659 |
93 |
0 |
566 |
88 |
3,221 |
1,384 |
15 |
1,852 |
89 |
17,894 |
25 |
4 |
17,873 |
90 |
9,411 |
2,114 |
21 |
7,318 |
Note: Bold characters = input data.
Table C3. Consumption of industrial roundwood in Asia in 1994
Input Code |
Output Code |
Manufacturing Coefficient |
Output (000MT) |
Required Input (000CUM) |
Input Used (000CUM) |
81 |
83 |
1.75 |
25,162 |
44,034 |
|
81 |
84 |
2.00 |
18,030 |
36,060 |
|
81 |
85 |
1.40 |
1,723 |
2,412 |
|
81 |
86 |
1.60 |
1,837 |
2,939 |
|
81 |
87 |
2.10 |
566 |
1,189 |
|
81 |
88 |
3.00 |
1,852 |
5,556 |
92,190 |
Note: Bold characters = input data.
Table D4. Production of industrial roundwood in Asia in 1994
Input Code |
Consumption (000CUM) |
Import (000CUM) |
Export (000CUM) |
Production (000CUM) |
81 |
92,190 |
4,587 |
2410 |
87,612 |
Note: Bold characters = input data.
The manufacturing cost of each commodity in each country and territory is calculated from its price, the prices of its constituent commodities, and the input-output coefficients. In the GFPM model, the following input-output relations represent the manufacturing activities (see Figure C1 above):
· Industrial roundwood is used to produce sawnwood, veneer/plywood, particleboard, fibreboard, mechanical pulp, and chemical pulp.
· Mechanical pulp, chemical pulp, other fibre pulp and waste paper are used to produce newsprint, printing & writing paper, and other paper & paperboard.
Fuelwood and other industrial roundwood are not manufactured and thus, are not present in the manufacture worksheet.
The formula for calculating manufacturing cost is:
(2)
where Cmanufactured-good is the manufacturing cost per unit, Pmanufactured-good is the price of manufactured good, Pi is the price of the ith input good, and _i is the ith input-output coefficient (the amount of input-good i to produce one unit of output). Input goods can be other manufactured goods (e.g., pulp) or raw materials (e.g., industrial roundwood).
Table C5 shows the calculation for manufacturing costs of newsprint paper, printing & writing paper and other paper & paper board in the Asia region in 1994. Prices of inputs and outputs are world averages of unit values of imports and exports, obtained from FAO statistics.
Table C5. Example of manufacturing cost computation in Asia in 1994.
Input Code |
Output Code |
Input Price ($US/MT) |
Output Price ($US/MT) |
Manufacturing Cost ($US/MT) | |
87 |
91 |
0.12 |
348 |
||
88 |
91 |
0.27 |
471 |
||
89 |
91 |
0.11 |
859 |
||
90 |
91 |
0.41 |
118 |
486 |
174 |
87 |
92 |
0.04 |
348 |
||
88 |
92 |
0.30 |
471 |
||
89 |
92 |
0.20 |
859 |
||
90 |
92 |
0.37 |
118 |
834 |
464 |
87 |
93 |
0.07 |
348 |
||
88 |
93 |
0.20 |
471 |
||
89 |
93 |
0.30 |
859 |
||
90 |
93 |
0.44 |
118 |
735 |
307 |
Note: Bold characters = input data.
It is important to note that, as currently specified, the GFPM uses world trade prices for the calculation of the value of outputs and the cost of inputs. Consequently, because all countries and territories face these same costs, it is purely the difference between input-output coefficients which lead to differences between manufacturing costs in different countries and territories