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CONCLUSION

Long-term scenarios for food supply, demand, and trade as predicted by the IMPACT model developed by IFPRI 1998 indicate that world cereal and livestock prices will decline much more slowly than in the past several decades, even if the crisis continues. The stronger price structure is the result of the continuing, gradual slowdown in the rate of growth in both production and consumption. The growth in cereal trade remains strong in all three scenarios, and Asia's role as a major player in cereal and livestock markets in the coming decades is not likely to be threatened by the current crisis. But at the same time the crisis is expected to have a devastating effect on Asian food security.

The extremely complex world we live in makes it near impossible to predict the future for a small but significant sector such as the livestock sector. However there are clear paths along which animal production should, and possibly may, move as surely as we move beyond 2000.

Among the signposts:

· Protection of the environment is critically important and the " I want it but not in my backyard " attitude is counterproductive. The true cost of production, including the environmental cost must be factored into the cost of production.

· Diversified research and development is vital. Local control and input is important as it encourages local ownership and respects diversity. As various technologies develop and are adapted to a variety of conditions local people are empowered to develop their own solutions locally.

· Progress can be expected in the integration of the industrial and mixed systems. Education and hard work over a long period of time are the essential ingredients.

· Information gathering and sharing will be vitally important. From a purely technical point of view systems must be developed for meaningful data collection leading us to understand what is happening and also understanding what might happen, putting us all in a better position to predict the future. Decisions are always better if based on good information. The Internet offers the opportunity for greater information sharing but accuracy and honesty issues must be attended to.

· There will be a need to encourage innovation, flexibility, and accountability and listening to the people working near the grass roots. Innovation is important, as solutions to existing problems will be found with yesterday's solutions in mind.

· Long-term views must prevail over the quest for short-term gains. There are some encouraging developments, for example in March 1998 the US Federal Drug Administration approved a spray containing 29 types of bacteria isolated from the gut of mature chickens. These are the bacteria that chicks normally receive from their mothers but that hatchery-born chicks lack. Not only does the spray of "good" bacteria protect the chicks from pathogenic bacteria, simply by occupying the niches where the pathogenic bacteria would otherwise lodge (competitive exclusion), but it discourages antibiotic use. This is a positive move in reversing one of the profit-driven mechanisms that threaten the livestock industry's future in the industrialised arena.

· There is a need to develop the concept of Area Wide integration. This is, in my opinion, an important and useful FAO initiative. AWI is a total concept involving issues such as: equity, economics, environmental controls, externalities, government policy, nutrient balance, sustainability, human and animal health, etc. The health issues are just a small but important element of the total AWI concept. The concept of Area Wide Integration (AWI) does afford the opportunity to consider the epidemiology and economics of diseases when designing the system. As mentioned earlier, Hendra and Nipah viruses are probably endemic in fruit bats and since fruit bats are migratory it is hard to imagine that AWI per se could have stopped the expansion of this apparently chance occurrence of the bat virus and a pig. Although difficult to prove, until more information becomes available, it is possible that the concentration of large numbers of pigs in confined buildings and the uncontrolled movements of pigs, and even the controlled movement of pigs to distant abattoir in Singapore, contributed to its spread and ease of establishment in pigs. These conditions could have been more easily managed and controlled under the concept of AWI, as was mentioned before, but only if good surveillance and response procedures were firmly in place. This again exemplifies the need for an interdisciplinary or multidisciplinary approach to understanding and controlling disease. Even a simple procedure such as prohibiting the planting of fruit trees near pig production areas may have a tremendous effect on controlling the possibility of contact with the fruit bat population. There may be many other small initiatives that can have an equally desirable positive effect.

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