The Free Trade Area of the Americas and the Market for Processed Orange Products (Cont.)

Thomas H. Spreen

Table 1

Processed Orange Production by Country, 1998^a

Country	Production (1000 MT)
Brazil	13,464
United States	10,213
Italy	940
Mexico	700
Spain	664
Cuba	345
Greece	310
South Africa	228
Argentina	196
Australia	192
Israel	142
Others	495
Total	27,889
a Figures presented are in fresh fruit equivalent

Source: FAO

Table 2

Processed Orange Consumption by Country, 1998^a

Country	Consumption (1000 MT)	Per Capita (kg)
United States	11,773	42.96
European Union	13,745	36.70
Canada	1,241	40.60
Australia	276	14.91
Mexico	273	2.85
Brazil	243	1.47
Japan	238	1.88
Others	1,510	N/A
Total	29,299	4.97
^a Figures presented are fresh fruit equivalent

Source: FAO

Table 3

U.S. Consumption of Orange Juice by Category, 1988-89 through 1999-2000 seasons

	FCOJ	Reconstituted Chilled OJ	NFC	Total^a
Season	-------------------Million SSE Gallons------------------
1988-89	532.5	518.4	174.3	1249.2
1989-90	450.6	452.5	176.9	1102.5
1990-91	444.9	451.2	183.1	1098.8
1991-92	438.6	462.2	212.6	1133.7
1992-93	454.0	525.6	277.2	1276.7
1993-94	452.1	576.6	328.6	1378.5
1994-95	413.8	586.8	352.9	1372.0
1995-96	382.4	601.8	378.3	1380.7
1996-97	354.3	657.5	402.2	1431.4
1997-98	351.8	724.8	511.7	1606.0
1998-99	305.4	680.1	565.4	1568.3
1999-00	267.7	661.4	629.9	1574.8
^a Includes a small amount of canned and fresh squeezed OJ consumption

Source: Florida Department of Citrus

Table 4

FCOJ tariff schedule for major orange juice importing countries under GATT.

Year

U.S.

Europe

Japan

cents/SSE gal

--------ad valorem---------

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000 and beyond

35.01

34.13

33.24

32.36

31.48

30.59

29.71

18.37

17.74

17.10

16.47

15.84

15.20

29.25

28.50

27.75

27.00

26.25

25.50

Source: Spreen and Mondragon

Table 5

Tariff rate quota schedule for imported Mexican orange juice under NAFTA

	FCOJ^a			SSOJ^b
Year	In-quota rate^c	Over-quota	Snapback^d	In-quota rate^e	Over-quota	Snapback^d
	---cents per SSE gallon---			---cents per SSE gallon---
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008	17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 11.9 5.9 0	34.1 33.3 32.4 31.5 30.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 23.8 17.8 11.9 5.9 0	35.0 34.1 33.2 32.4 31.5 30.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 0	10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.4 8.0 6.7 5.3 4.0 2.7 1.3 0	18.7 17.4 16.1 14.7 13.4 12.0 10.7 9.4 8.0 6.7 5.3 4.0 2.7 1.3 0	20.0 18.7 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 0
^a Denotes frozen concentrated orange juice ^b Denotes single strength orange juice ^c Tariff applied to first 40 million SSE gallons of FCOJ imports from Mexico ^d Tariff applied to imports from Mexico exceeding 70 million SSE gallons from 1994 through 2002 and to imports from Mexico exceeding 90 million SSE gallons from 2003 through 2007 ^e Tariff applied to first 4 million gallons of SSOJ imports from Mexico

Source: North American Free Trade Agreement, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

Table 6

Projected Production Oranges and Orange Juice in Sao Paulo and Florida, 2005, 2010, and 2020

	Projected Orange Production		Projected Orange Juice Production
	Sao Paulo	Florida	Sao Paulo	Florida
Season	Million MT		Million SSE Gallons
2004-05	13.7	10.7	1466	1547
2009-10	15.3	10.9	1631	1584
2019-20	20.7	11.0	2181	1592

Table 7

Projected Orange Juice Consumption in Major Consuming Regions in 2005, 2010, and 2020

	Consumption Region
	United Statesa	Canada	European Union	Japan
Season	1000 MT @ 65^oBrix
2004-5	1120	58	884	106
2009-10	1150	60	984	120
2019-20	1246	69	1265	165
^a Includes both NFC and FCOJ consumption

Table 8

Projected Orange Production and On-Tree Prices in Sao Paulo With, Phased Reduction of,
and Immediate Elimination of the U.S. Orange Juice Tariff

	With U.S. Tariff		Phased Reduction		Immediate Elimination
Season	Production (Mil. MT)	On-Tree Price (US$/box)	Production (Mil. MT)	On-Tree Price (US $/box)	Production (Mil. MT)	On-Tree Price (US $/box)
2001-02	14.1	2.75	14.1	2.80	14.1	3.28
2002-03	13.8	2.09	13.8	2.94	13.8	3.39
2003-04	13.7	2.99	13.7	3.04	13.7	3.46
2004-05	13.7	3.05	13.7	3.12	13.7	3.50
2005-06	13.9	3.08	13.9	3.17	13.9	3.53
2006-07	14.1	3.08	14.1	3.21	14.1	3.53
2007-08	14.4	3.08	14.4	3.14	14.4	3.52
2008-09	14.8	3.06	14.8	3.16	14.8	3.50
2009-10	15.3	3.01	15.3	3.15	15.4	3.46
2010-11	15.9	2.93	15.9	3.12	16.0	3.40
2011-12	16.6	2.82	16.6	3.08	16.7	3.32
2012-13	17.3	2.73	17.3	3.05	17.4	3.25
2013-14	17.9	2.66	17.9	3.04	18.0	3.21
2014-15	18.5	2.60	18.5	3.03	18.6	3.16
2015-16	19.1	2.55	19.1	3.04	19.2	3.13

Table 9

Projected Orange Production and On-Tree Price in Florida With, Phased Reduction of,
and Immediate Elimination of U.S. Orange Juice Tariff.

	With U.S. Tariff		Phased Reduction		Immediate Elimination
Season	Production (mil. MT)	On-Tree Price (US $/box)	Production (mil. MT)	On-Tree Price (US $/box)	Production (mil. MT)	On-Tree Price (US $/box)
2001-02	10.6	4.06	10.6	3.99	10.6	2.90
2002-03	10.6	4.14	10.6	4.03	10.6	3.02
2003-04	10.7	4.19	10.7	4.03	10.7	3.10
2004-05	10.7	4.21	10.7	4.00	10.7	3.15
2005-06	10.7	4.22	10.7	3.95	10.7	3.17
2006-07	10.8	4.21	10.8	3.87	10.8	3.18
2007-08	10.8	4.17	10.8	3.44	10.8	3.16
2008-09	10.9	4.13	10.9	3.38	10.8	3.15
2009-10	10.9	4.07	10.9	3.30	10.8	3.11
2010-11	11.0	4.00	10.9	3.18	10.8	3.05
2011-12	11.0	3.90	11.0	3.06	10.8	2.97
2012-13	11.0	3.82	11.0	2.94	10.7	2.90
2013-14	11.0	3.74	11.0	2.84	10.7	2.85
2014-15	11.0	3.66	10.9	2.75	10.7	2.81
2015-16	11.0	3.62	10.9	2.68	10.6	2.78

Table 10

Orange Juice Consumption and Price in the United States with, Phased Reduction of,
and Immediate Elimination of the U.S. Orange Juice Tariff.

	Consumption			Prices
	With Tariff	Phased Reduction	Immediate Elimination	With Tariff		Phased Reduction		Immediate Elimination
Season	1000 MT @ 65º Brix			NFC^a	FCOJ^b	NFC^a	FCOJ^b	NFC^a	FCOJ^b
2001-02	1125	1135	1300	2.09	1714	2.08	1698	2.02	1470
2002-03	1122	1130	1290	2.13	1731	2.08	1707	2.04	1497
2003-04	1120	1133	1283	2.16	1741	2.08	1705	2.05	1516
2004-05	1120	1138	1281	2.17	1745	2.08	1698	2.06	1526
2005-06	1122	1147	1283	2.18	1747	2.07	1685	2.06	1530
2006-07	1125	1159	1288	2.19	1744	2.06	1666	2.06	1530
2007-08	1132	1184	1293	2.19	1735	2.04	1629	2.06	1527
2008-09	1141	1201	1301	2.19	1727	2.03	1609	2.06	1523
2009-10	1150	1220	1311	2.19	1714	2.03	1583	2.05	1513
2010-11	1160	1244	1325	2.17	1695	2.02	1552	2.04	1499
2011-12	1172	1269	1341	2.15	1675	2.00	1517	2.02	1479
2012-13	1174	1294	1356	2.14	1656	1.99	1484	2.02	1462
2013-14	1195	1317	1368	2.13	1641	1.98	1457	2.00	1450
2014-15	1204	1339	1380	2.12	1625	1.97	1431	1.99	1438
2015-16	1214	1359	1391	2.11	1612	1.97	1489	1.98	1430
^a US $ per SSE gallon, processor price. ^b US $ per MT @ 65º Brix, processor price.

Table 11

Orange Juice Consumption and Price in Canada With, Phased Reduction of,
and Immediate Elimination of the U.S. Orange Juice Tariff

	Consumption			Prices
	With Tariff	Phased Reduction	Immediate Elimination	With Tariff	Phased Reduction	Immediate Elimination
Season	1000 MT @ 65º Brix			US $ per MT @ 65º Brix
2001-02	64	64	60	1380	1378	1437
2002-03	62	63	59	1711	1400	1464
2003-04	61	62	58	1431	1413	1482
2004-05	61	62	58	1444	1419	1493
2005-06	61	62	58	1452	1421	1497
2006-07	61	63	58	1452	1419	1497
2007-08	61	64	59	1450	1403	1495
2008-09	62	64	59	1446	1407	1490
2009-10	63	65	60	1437	1406	1480
2010-11	64	65	61	1419	1399	1466
2011-12	66	66	63	1397	1387	1447
2012-13	67	67	64	1376	1378	1429
2013-14	68	68	65	1361	1376	1417
2014-15	69	68	66	1348	1374	1406
2015-16	70	68	67	1340	1376	1397

Table 12

Orange Juice Consumption and Prices in the European Union With, Phased Reduction of,
and Immediate Elimination of the U.S. Orange Juice Tariff.

	Consumption			Prices
	With Tariff	Phased Reduction	Immediate Elimination	With Tariff	Phased Reduction	Immediate Elimination
Season	1000 MT @ 65º Brix			U.S. $ per MT @ 65º Brix
2001-02	894	886	773	1563	1575	1722
2002-03	881	872	765	1605	1616	1752
2003-04	878	866	765	1632	1648	1774
2004-05	882	866	771	1648	1669	1785
2005-06	893	871	782	1656	1685	1791
2006-07	911	880	797	1658	1697	1791
2007-08	930	908	816	1656	1682	1788
2008-09	953	923	836	1651	1687	1783
2009-10	982	943	861	1638	1685	1771
2010-11	1015	964	889	1615	1676	1754
2011-12	1054	989	919	1585	1665	1732
2012-13	1091	1013	949	1559	1655	1712
2013-14	1123	1032	975	1539	1651	1698
2014-15	1154	1050	1001	1522	1648	1685
2015-16	1182	1065	1024	1510	1651	1676

Table 13

Orange Juice Consumption and Prices in Japan With, Phased Reduction of,
and Immediate Elimination of the U.S. Orange Juice Tariff.

	Consumption			Prices
	With Tariff	Phased Reduction	Immediate Elimination	With Tariff	Phased Reduction	Immediate Elimination
Season	1000 MT @ 65º Brix			U.S. $ per MT @ 65º Brix
2001-02	104	103	92	1847	1860	2020
2002-03	103	103	93	1891	1904	2054
2003-04	104	103	94	1922	1939	2076
2004-05	106	104	95	1940	1962	2089
2005-06	108	105	97	1949	1980	2095
2006-07	110	107	99	1950	1992	2095
2007-08	113	111	102	1949	1977	2092
2008-09	116	113	105	1943	1982	2086
2009-10	120	116	108	1929	1980	2073
2010-11	125	120	112	1903	1970	2055
2011-12	130	124	117	1871	1957	2032
2012-13	135	128	121	1841	1946	2009
2013-14	140	131	125	1821	1942	1995
2014-15	144	134	129	1803	1940	1980
2015-16	149	138	133	1788	1942	1970

Table 14

Projected exports of FCOJ from Sao Paulo, Brazil by destination under existing tariff schedule
2001- 02 through 2015 - 2016

	Destination
Season	United States	Canada	European Union	Japan
	1000 MT @ 65^o Brix
2001-2	49	32	894	104
2002-3	41	31	881	103
2003-4	37	31	878	104
2004-5	34	30	882	106
2005-6	31	30	893	108
2006-7	30	30	911	110
2007-8	30	31	930	13
2008-9	34	31	953	116
2009-10	38	31	982	120
2010-11	45	32	1015	125
2011-12	54	33	1054	130
2012-13	63	34	1091	135
2013-14	72	34	1123	140
2014-15	81	35	1154	144
2015-16	91	35	1182	149

Table 15

Projected exports of FCOJ from Sao Paulo under phased elimination of the U.S. tariff, by destination
2001-02 through 2015-16.

	Destination
Season	United States	Canada	European Union	Japan
	1000 MT @ 65^o Brix
2001-2	59	32	886	103
2002-3	50	31	872	103
2003-4	49	31	866	103
2004-5	51	31	866	104
2005-6	55	31	871	105
2006-7	63	31	880	1070
2007-8	164	32	853	55
2008-9	175	32	871	57
2009-10	189	32	893	58
2010-11	207	33	918	60
2011-12	229	33	948	62
2012-13	250	34	977	64
2013-14	270	34	1002	65
2014-15	290	34	1026	67
2015-16	309	34	1049	69

Table 16

Projected exports of FCOJ from Sao Paulo under immediate elimination of the U.S. tariff by destination
2001-02 through 2015-16 seasons

	Destination
Season	United States	Canada	European Union	Japan
	1000 MT @ 65^o Brix
2001-2	329	30	674	46
2002-3	312	29	668	46
2003-4	300	29	673	47
2004-5	293	29	683	48
2005-6	289	29	697	48
2006-7	289	29	716	50
2007-8	290	29	736	51
2008-9	293	30	763	53
2009-10	299	30	794	54
2010-11	309	31	828	56
2011-12	322	31	867	58
2012-13	335	32	906	61
2013-14	345	32	941	63
2014-15	356	33	976	65
2015-16	365	33	1008	67

Table 17

Projected utilization of U.S. orange juice production, under existing U.S. tariff by product form and destination
2001-02 through 2015-16 seasons

Season	United States FCOJ	Canada FCOJ	United States NFC
	1000 MT @ 65^o Brix		Million SSE gallons
2001-2	645	32	659
2002-3	647	31	662
2003-4	646	31	667
2004-5	645	30	673
2005-6	644	30	680
2006-7	643	30	688
2007-8	647	31	693
2008-9	648	31	698
2009-10	648	31	704
2010-11	647	32	712
2011-12	644	33	719
2012-13	640	34	727
2013-14	636	34	734
2014-15	631	35	741
2015-16	625	35	747

Table 18

Projected utilization of U.S. orange juice production under phased elimination of the U. S. orange juice tariff
by product form and destination, 2001-02 through 20015-16

Season	United States FCOJ	Canada FCOJ	European Union FCOJ	Japan FCOJ	United States NFC
	1000 MT @ 65^o Brix				Million SSE gal.
2001-02	647	32	0	0	656
2002-03	644	31	0	0	667
2003-04	639	31	0	0	676
2004-05	636	31	0	0	684
2005-06	636	31	0	0	691
2006-07	636	31	0	0	697
2007-08	532	32	55	55	697
2008-09	537	32	52	57	698
2009-10	542	32	49	58	699
2010-11	548	33	46	60	698
2011-12	53	33	41	62	696
2012-13	558	34	36	64	695
2013-14	561	34	30	65	694
2014-15	563	34	24	67	693
2015-16	564	34	17	69	693

Table 19

Projected utilization of U.S. orange juice production under immediate elimination of the U. S. orange juice tariff
by product form and destination, 2001-02 through 20015-16 seasons

Season	United States FCOJ	Canada FCOJ	European Union FCOJ	Japan FCOJ	United States NFC
	1000 MT @ 65^o Brix				Million SSE gal.
2001-02	563	30	99	46	574
2002-03	562	29	97	46	584
2003-04	562	29	91	47	594
2004-05	562	29	88	47	602
2005-06	563	29	85	48	609
2006-07	563	29	81	50	616
2007-08	564	29	79	51	622
2008-09	565	30	74	53	628
2009-10	565	30	68	54	633
2010-11	567	31	60	56	637
2011-12	568	31	52	58	640
2012-13	568	32	43	61	644
2013-14	567	32	34	63	648
2014-15	566	33	25	65	653
2015-16	563	33	15	67	658