2

SUB-SAHARAN
AFRICA

REGIONAL SETTING

Characteristics of the region

Sub-Saharan Africa1 contains a total population of 626 million people of whom 384 million (i.e. 61 percent) are classified as agricultural. The region is relatively well endowed with natural resources. Total land area is 2455 million ha, of which 173 million ha are under annual cultivation or permanent crops2 - about one quarter of the potentially arable area. In the region as a whole, the arid and semiarid agro-ecological zones3 encompass 43 percent of the land area; the dry subhumid zone is equivalent to 13 percent and the moist subhumid and humid zones jointly account for 38 percent. In West Africa, 70 percent of the total population live in the moist subhumid and humid zones, whereas in East and Southern Africa only about half the population lives in these areas.

Despite the abundance of natural resources, the average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in constant prices was lower at the end of the 1990s than in 1970⁴. Nineteen of the 25 poorest countries⁵ in the world are found in Sub-Saharan Africa and income inequality is high. Approximately 16 percent of the region's population lives in countries that have an average GDP per capita of less than US$200; 36 percent live in countries with an average GDP per capita of less than US$300 and as many as 75 percent live in countries with an average GDP per capita below US$400. In the region as a whole, an estimated 43 percent of the total population fall below either the international dollar poverty line or below nationally defined poverty lines. In East and Southern Africa, it is estimated that rural poverty accounts for as much as 90 percent of total poverty. Although remote areas with marginal agricultural resources are poorer than other places, they have a low population density and hence account for a relatively low proportion of total poor people.

Agriculture accounts for 20 percent⁶ of the region's GDP, employs 67 percent of the total labour force and is the main source of livelihood for poor people. Although the share of agricultural GDP is declining in more than one third of regional countries, in a further one quarter it is actually increasing⁷. In most cases, a declining share of GDP is the result of rapid growth in non-agricultural sectors, whereas increases in the contribution of agriculture to national GDP stem from either growth of agricultural value added or, more commonly, from declines in non-agricultural sector output.

Although Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for barely one percent of global GDP and only two percent of world trade (down from nearly four percent in 1970), international trade contributes a relatively large share of regional GDP. Agriculture is the dominant export sector for East Africa (47 percent of total exports), and a significant source of exports in other areas of the region (14 percent of exports in Southern Africa and 10 percent in West Africa)⁸. The region's main agricultural export commodities are cocoa, coffee and cotton. In the region as a whole agricultural exports make up 16 percent of total exports, while agricultural imports - mainly cereals - account for around 11 to 15 percent of total imports. During the past three decades, the region has suffered massive losses from the erosion of its share of world trade, aggravated by substantially worsening terms of trade.

In the next sub-section of this Chapter, the major regional farming systems are briefly described. After a discussion of region-wide trends influencing the evolution of these systems, the principal systems are described. The final section summarises the strategic priorities for the region.

Major Farming Systems Sub-Saharan Africa - MAP

Major farming systems in Sub-Saharan Africa

For the purpose of this analysis, 15 broad farming systems have been identified (see Map)⁹. The main characteristics of the major farming systems, including the land area and agricultural population as a proportion of regional totals, principal livelihoods and the prevalence of poverty, are shown in Table 2.1. The Urban Based Farming System is not mapped. A brief description of each farming system appears in the following paragraphs, and five are analysed in greater depth in subsequent sections.

Irrigated Farming System

This farming system comprises large-scale irrigation schemes such as the Gezira Scheme in Sudan, extensive riverine and flood recession-based irrigation, West African fadama areas and the Wabi Shebelle in Somalia. It covers only 35 million ha (1.4 percent) of the land area in the region, but accounts for nearly 2 million ha (29 percent) of the irrigated surface¹⁰ and supports an agricultural population of 7 million (nearly 2 percent of the regional total). The remainder of the irrigated area in the region occurs within other farming systems - notably the Large Commercial and Smallholder System in South Africa and Namibia, and the Rice-Tree Crop System in Madagascar.

The Irrigated Farming System is quite complex, especially in respect of institutional aspects. In many cases, irrigated cropping is supplemented by rainfed cropping or animal husbandry (the Gezira is one notable exception). Water control may be full or partial. Irrigated holdings vary in size from 22 ha per household in the Gezira scheme to less than 1 ha. Crop failure is generally not a problem, but livelihoods are vulnerable to water shortages, scheme breakdowns and deteriorating input/output price ratios. Many state-run schemes are currently in crisis, but if institutional problems can be solved, future agricultural growth potential is good. The incidence of poverty is lower than in other farming systems and absolute numbers of poor are small.

Tree Crop Farming System

This farming system runs from Côte d'Ivoire to Ghana, and from Nigeria and Cameroon to Gabon, with smaller pockets in Congo and Angola, largely in the humid zone. The system occupies 73 million ha (three percent) of the region's land area, but accounts for 10 million ha (6 percent) of total cultivated area and supports an agricultural population of nearly 25 million (7 percent of the regional total).

The backbone of the system is the production of industrial tree crops; notably cocoa, coffee, oil palm and rubber. Food crops are inter-planted between tree crops and are grown mainly for subsistence; few cattle are raised. There are also commercial tree crop estates (particularly for oil palm and rubber) in these areas, providing services to smallholder tree crop farmers through nucleus estate and outgrower schemes. Since neither tree crop nor food crop failure is common, price fluctuations for industrial crops constitute the main source of vulnerability. Socio-economic differentiation is considerable. The incidence of poverty is limited to moderate, and tends to be concentrated among very small farmers and agricultural workers, but growth potential is moderately high.

Forest Based Farming System

This farming system occupies 263 million ha (11 percent) of the total land in the region, accounts for six million ha (4 percent) of cultivation and supports an agricultural population of 28 million (7 percent of the region). It is found in the humid forest zone of the Congo Democratic Republic, the Congo Republic, Southeast Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Southern Tanzania and the northern tips of Zambia, Mozambique and Angola.

Farmers practice shifting cultivation; clearing a new field from the forest every year, cropping it for 2 to 5 years (first cereals or groundnuts, then cassava) and then abandoning it to bush fallow for 7 to 20 years. With increasing population density, however, the fallow periods are progressively being reduced. Cassava is the main staple, complemented by maize, sorghum, beans and cocoyams. Cattle and small ruminant populations are low, as is human population density. Physical isolation plus lack of roads and markets pose serious problems. Forest products and wild game are the main source of cash, which is in very short supply because few households have cash crops and market outlets are distant. Poverty is extensive, and in places very severe. Agricultural growth potential is moderate, thanks to the existence of large uncultivated areas and high rainfall, but yield increases in the near future are expected to be modest. Development requires careful management of environmental risks, including soil fragility and loss of wildlife habitats.

Rice-Tree Crop Farming System

This farming system is located in Madagascar - mostly in the moist subhumid and humid agro-ecological zones. It accounts for only 31 million ha of land area and 2.2 million ha of cropland (both one percent of the total in the region), yet it supports an agricultural population of seven million (two percent of the regional total). Though farm size is small, there is a significant amount of irrigation - equivalent to 10 percent of the region's total irrigated area. Banana and coffee cultivation is complemented by rice, maize, cassava and legumes. Cattle numbers are relatively low.

Poverty is of moderate prevalence. From a resource and climatic perspective the agricultural growth potential is high. However, actual agricultural growth and the poverty reduction potential are both considered fairly low in the short term, due to small farm size, shortage of appropriate technologies, and poor development of markets and off-farm activities.

Highland Perennial Farming System

This farming system, found in Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, covers 32 million ha (only 1 percent) of the land area of the region, mostly in the subhumid and humid agro-ecological zones, but accounts for 6 million ha (4 percent) of the cultivated area and has an agricultural population of 30 million (8 percent of the regional total). This system supports the highest rural population density (more than one person per ha of land) in the region. Land use is intense and holdings are very small (average cultivated area per household is just under one ha, but more than 50 percent of holdings are smaller than 0.5 ha). The farming system is based on perennial crops such as banana, plantain, enset¹¹ and coffee, complemented by cassava, sweet potato, beans and cereals. Eleven million cattle are kept, for milk, manure, bridewealth, savings and social security. The main trends are diminishing farm size, declining soil fertility, and increasing poverty and hunger. People cope by working the land more intensively, but returns to labour are low.

Poverty is high, both in terms of severity and absolute numbers. Despite favourable natural resources and climate, both the overall agricultural growth potential and the poverty reduction potential are considered fairly low, due to very small farm size, absence of under-utilised resources, shortage of appropriate technologies, poor infrastructure, and markets and few opportunities for off-farm activities.

Highland Temperate Mixed Farming System

This farming system occupies 44 million ha (only two percent) of the land area of the region and accounts for six million ha (4 percent) of cultivated area, but supports an agricultural population of 28 million (7 percent of the total in the region). Most of the system is located at altitudes between 1800 and 3000 metres in the highlands and mountains of Ethiopia. Smaller areas are found in Eritrea, Lesotho, Angola, Cameroon and Nigeria, generally in subhumid or humid agro-ecological zones. Average population density is high and average farm size is small (1 to 2 ha). Cattle are numerous (estimated population of 17 million) and are kept for ploughing, milk, manure, bridewealth, savings and emergency sale. Small grains such as wheat and barley are the main staples, complemented by peas, lentils, broad beans, rape, tef (in Ethiopia) and Irish potatoes. The main sources of cash are from the sale of sheep and goats, wool, local barley beer, Irish potatoes, pulses and oilseeds. Some households have access to soldiers' salaries (Ethiopia and Eritrea) or remittances (Lesotho), but these mountain areas offer few local opportunities for off-farm employment. Typically there is a single cropping season, although some parts of Ethiopia have a second, shorter season. There are major problems in the farming system: for instance, soil fertility is declining because of erosion and a shortage of biomass; and cereal production is suffering from a lack of inputs. There is, however, considerable potential for diversification into higher-value temperate crops.

Household vulnerability stems mainly from the risky climate: early and late frosts at high altitudes can severely reduce yields, and crop failures are not uncommon in cold and wet years. As with other food-crop based farming systems, a hungry season occurs from planting time until the main grain harvest. Poverty incidence is moderate to extensive - in comparison with other systems in Africa - except for the periodic droughts which afflict the Horn of Africa¹². The potential for poverty reduction and for agricultural growth potential is only moderate.

Root Crop Farming System

This farming system is situated in, and extends from, Sierra Leone to Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria and Cameroon, typically in the moist subhumid and humid agro-ecological zones. The area is bounded by the Tree Crop and Forest Based Farming Systems on the southern, wetter side and by the Cereal-Root Crop Mixed Farming System on the northern, drier side. There is a similar strip in Central and Southern Africa, on the south side of the forest zone - in Angola, Zambia, Southern Tanzania and Northern Mozambique - and a small area in Southern Madagascar. The system accounts for 282 million ha (around 11 percent) of the land area of the region, 28 million ha (16 percent) of the cultivated area and 44 million (11 percent) of the agricultural population of the region. Rainfall is either bimodal or nearly continuous and risk of crop failure is low. The system contains around 17 million cattle.

The prevalence of poverty is limited to moderate. Agricultural growth potential and poverty reduction potential are moderate; technologies for this system are not yet fully developed. Nonetheless, market prospects for export of oil palm products are attractive, urban demand for root crops is growing, and linkages between agriculture and off-farm activities are relatively better than elsewhere.

Cereal-Root Crop Mixed Farming System

This farming system extends from Guinea through Northern Côte d'Ivoire to Ghana, Togo, Benin and the mid-belt states of Nigeria to Northern Cameroon; and there is a similar zone in Central and Southern Africa. It accounts for 312 million ha (13 percent) of the land area of the region - predominantly in the dry subhumid zone - 31 million ha (18 percent) of the cultivated area and supports an agricultural population of 59 million (15 percent of the region). Cattle are numerous - some 42 million head. Although the system shares a number of climatic characteristics with the Maize Mixed System, other characteristics set it apart, namely; lower altitude, higher temperatures, lower population density, abundant cultivated land, higher livestock numbers per household, and poorer transport and communications infrastructure. Although cereals such as maize, sorghum and millet are widespread, wherever animal traction is absent root crops such as yams and cassava are more important than cereals. Intercropping is common, and a wide range of crops is grown and marketed.

The main source of vulnerability is drought. Poverty incidence is limited, numbers of poor people are modest and the potential for poverty reduction is moderate. Agricultural growth prospects are excellent and, as described in the relevant section below, this system could become the bread basket of Africa and an important source of export earnings.

Maize Mixed Farming System

This farming system is the most important food production system in East and Southern Africa, extending across plateau and highland areas at altitudes of 800 to 1500 metres, from Kenya and Tanzania to Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho¹³. It accounts for 246 million ha (10 percent) of the land area, 32 million ha (19 percent) of the cultivated area and an agricultural population of 60 million (15 percent of the regional total). Climate varies from dry subhumid to moist subhumid. The most typical areas have monomodal rainfall, but some areas experience bimodal rainfall.

Population density is moderately high and average farm sizes are rather modest - often less than two ha. The farming system also contains scattered irrigation schemes, but these are mostly small-scale and amount to only six percent of the irrigated area in the region. Where a bimodal rainfall pattern occurs farmers have two cropping seasons, but in drier areas they usually harvest only once a year from a given field. The main staple is maize and the main cash sources are migrant remittances, cattle, small ruminants, tobacco, coffee and cotton, plus the sale of food crops such as maize and pulses. About 36 million cattle are kept for ploughing, breeding, milk, farm manure, bridewealth, savings and emergency sale. In spite of scattered settlement patterns, community institutions and market linkages in the maize belt are relatively better developed than in other farming systems.

Socio-economic differentiation is considerable, due mainly to migration, and the whole system is currently in crisis as input use has fallen sharply due to the shortage of seed, fertiliser and agro-chemicals, plus the high price of fertiliser relative to the maize price. As a result, yields have fallen and soil fertility is declining, while smallholders are reverting to extensive production practices. The main sources of vulnerability are drought and market volatility. There is a moderate incidence of chronic poverty, linked to small farm size and absence of draught oxen and migrant remittances. Recently transitory poverty has sharply increased as a result of retrenchment of off-farm workers coupled with policy reforms affecting maize. In spite of the current crisis, long term agricultural growth prospects are relatively good and the potential for reduction of poverty is high.

Large Commercial and Smallholder Farming System

This farming system extends across the northern part of the Republic of South Africa and the southern part of Namibia, mostly in semiarid and dry subhumid zones, and accounts for 123 million ha (5 percent) of the land in the region, 12 million ha (7 percent) of the cultivated land and 17 million (4 percent) of the agricultural population. It comprises two distinct types of farms: scattered smallholder farming in the homelands and large-scale commercialised farming. Both types are largely mixed cereal-livestock systems, with maize dominating in the north and east, and sorghum and millet in the west. Both cattle (an estimated 11 million head) and small ruminants are raised in this system, but the level of crop-livestock integration is only modest.

Although the overall prevalence of poverty is moderate, it is often severe among smallholder families who often survive by means of off-farm income from employment, principally in other sectors outside the area. Vulnerability is high, since a considerable part of the farming system has poor soils and is drought-prone. Chronic and extensive poverty exists among smallholder families. Agricultural growth prospects are moderate, and there is a low-medium potential for poverty reduction.

Agro-Pastoral Millet/Sorghum Farming System

This farming system occupies 198 million ha (8 percent) of the land of the region, generally in the semiarid zone of West Africa from Senegal to Niger, and in substantial areas of East and Southern Africa from Somalia and Ethiopia to South Africa. It has an agricultural population of 33 million (8 percent) and their density is modest, but pressure on the limited amount of cultivated land is very high. Crops and livestock are of similar importance. Nearly 22 million ha are used for crops - 12 percent of the cultivated land in the region. Rainfed sorghum and pearl millet are the main sources of food and are rarely marketed, whereas sesame and pulses are sometimes sold. Land preparation is by oxen or camel, while hoe cultivation is common along riverbanks. The system contains nearly 25 million head of cattle as well as sheep and goats. Livestock are kept for subsistence (milk and milk products), offspring, transportation (camels, donkeys), land preparation (oxen, camels), sale or exchange, savings, bridewealth and insurance against crop failure. The population generally lives permanently in villages, although part of their herds may continue to migrate seasonally in the care of herdboys.

The main source of vulnerability is drought, leading to crop failure, weak animals and the distress sale of assets. Poverty is extensive, and often severe. The potential for poverty reduction is only moderate. Agricultural growth potential is also modest and presents important challenges.

Pastoral Farming System

This system is located in the arid and semiarid zones extending from Mauritania to the northern parts of Mali, Niger, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya and Uganda. There are also pastoral areas in the arid zones of Namibia and in parts of Botswana and Southern Angola. The system occupies 346 million ha (14 percent) of the regional land area, but accounts for only 27 million (7 percent) of the agricultural population and 21 million cattle, as well as sheep, goats and camels. During the driest period of the year, Sahelian pastoralists move south to the Cereal-Root Crop Mixed System areas and they return north during the rainy season.

The main source of vulnerability is the great climatic variability and consequently high incidence of drought. Socio-economic differentiation is considerable - many herders have lost most of their animals due to droughts or stock theft. Poverty incidence is extensive, but the potential for poverty reduction is low. Agricultural growth potential is also modest.

Sparse (Arid) Farming System

Despite covering some 429 million ha (17 percent) of the land area of the region, this system is found mainly in six countries: Sudan, Niger, Chad, Mauritania, Botswana and Namibia. It is of limited significance from the point of view of agriculture, and has a human population of around six million - 1.5 percent of the regional agricultural population - and a cattle population of eight million. Because the wadis and their surrounding areas are considered part of the Pastoral System, grazing within the actual Sparse (Arid) System is limited. There are some scattered irrigation settlements in these arid areas (and thus about 0.7 million ha of cultivation), in most cases used by pastoralists to supplement their livelihoods.¹⁴

Poverty is extensive and often severe, especially after droughts. The potential for both agricultural growth and poverty reduction is low.

Coastal Artisanal Fishing Farming System

In East Africa, the system stretches southward from Kenya to Mozambique and includes coastal areas of Zanzibar, Comoros and Madagascar. In West Africa it stretches southward from the Gambia and the Casamance region of Senegal, along the coast of Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, to Nigeria, Cameroon and Gabon. The system occupies almost 38 million (two percent) of the land and accounts for 13 million (three percent) of the agricultural population in the region; with a fairly high average population density. Households that depend on lake and river fishing are not included in this system.

The livelihood system is based on artisanal fishing supplemented by crop production, sometimes in multi-storied tree crop gardens with root crops under coconuts, fruit trees and cashews, plus some animal production. Cultivated area amounts to five million ha (three percent of the regional total). Some four percent of cultivated land is irrigated. Artisanal fishing includes sea fishing from boats, seine net fishing from beaches, setting of nets and traps along estuaries and in shallow lagoons, and catching of crustaceans in mangrove swamps. Poultry and goats are the main domestic animals. Cattle keeping is rare, due to, inter alia, tsetse infestation, and land preparation is by hand. Off-farm opportunities are connected with tourist resorts along the beaches and with large tree crop estates. In West Africa, because of the humid climate, there is more swamp rice and little or no cashewnut.

Although socio-economic differentiation is considerable, the current prevalence of poverty is only moderate. The potential for poverty reduction is considered low, and agricultural growth potential is only modest.

Urban Based Farming System

Within the estimated total urban population of over 200 million in the region, there is a significant number of farmers in cities and large towns. In some cities it is estimated that 10 percent or more of the population are engaged in urban agriculture¹⁵. Overall, it is estimated that there are around 11 million agricultural producers in urban areas. This farming system is very heterogeneous; ranging from small-scale but capital-intensive market-oriented commercial vegetable growing, dairy farming and livestock fattening, and part-time farming by the urban poor to cover part of their subsistence requirements. The level of crop-livestock integration is often low, and there are some environmental and food quality concerns associated with urban farming.

The potential for poverty reduction is low, mainly because the absolute number of poor is low. Agricultural growth is likely to take place spontaneously, in response to urban market demand for fresh produce, even in the absence of public sector support. Unless curbed by concerns over negative environmental effects, rapid adoption of improved technologies can be expected. Overall, this is a very dynamic farming system that has considerable growth potential.

Region-wide trends in Sub-Saharan Africa¹⁶

Building on the discussion in Chapter 1 of the global trends influencing farming system evolution, this section provides an overview of common trends affecting most farming systems in the region. These are discussed under the headings of population, hunger and poverty; natural resources and climate; science and technology; trade liberalisation and market development; policies, institutions and public goods; and information and human capital.

Population, hunger and poverty

The population of Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to increase by 78 percent in the coming three decades. This is considerably faster than the projected growth rate for developing countries as a whole. During this 30 year period, the rural population is projected to increase by 30 percent, and the agricultural component is expected to expand by a slightly lower proportion, moderated by growing urbanisation. Urban population - currently 33 percent - is expected to rise to 50 percent of the overall total by 2030. Sub-Saharan Africa is unique in that rapid urbanisation has been occurring during a period of economic contraction.

HIV/AIDS has already depressed population growth rates in many East and Southern African countries¹⁷ and is causing immense suffering; infection rates are already rising in West Africa. If HIV spreads faster than expected, East and Southern Africa could experience an extremely sharp contraction of the labour force in the prime working age group (although with the exception of South Africa net populations growth will continue), a corresponding rise in dependency ratios, and an increase in the number of AIDS orphans requiring assistance. Already, traditional social safety nets are unable to cope with the existing orphans. The cost to the economy - in loss of productive labour, medical costs and orphan support - is likely to be overwhelming. Up to the present time, the farming systems most affected have been the Highland Perennial and the Maize Mixed Systems, but the Large-scale Commercial and Smallholder System has also lost much of its skilled supervisory labour force. Because labour requirements for cassava are more evenly spread throughout the year than they are for cereals, farmers try to cope by expanding the area under cassava and reducing the area under cereals. In the Highland Perennial System, neglect of coffee and bananas is partly due to AIDS-related labour shortages. Moreover, HIV/AIDS is adversely affecting government staff and private agricultural service providers. Staff turnover is so high that much of the investment in human capacity building by agricultural projects, including overseas training, may have been wasted.

During the past 30 years the number of undernourished people in the region has increased substantially, to an estimated 180 million people in 1995-1997. During 1995-1997, the average daily Sub-Saharan African diet contained 2188 kcal/person/ day compared with 2626 in developing countries as a whole. It is estimated that 33 percent of the regional population was undernourished at this time, with a higher incidence of undernourishment found in rural areas than among urban dwellers. During the period until 2030, the average energy intake is projected to increase by 18 percent to 2580 kcal/person/day. In spite of the increased calorie supply, it is estimated that around 15 percent of the population (about 165 million people) will still be undernourished - an increase in the absolute number - unless deliberate measures are taken to ensure better access to food.

The region has a higher proportion of people living in dollar poverty than any other region of the world. Across the whole region, rural poverty still accounts for 90 percent of total poverty and approximately 80 percent of the poor still depend on agriculture or farm labour for their livelihood. Of even more concern, the total number of poor people is increasing.

Natural resources and climate

Currently, forest covers approximately 400 million ha (almost 17 percent of land area). The current annual deforestation rate is 0.7 percent and the decline in forest area is expected to continue. The farming systems that are most closely linked with deforestation are: the Forest Based System; the Tree Crop System; the Root Crop System; and the Cereal-Root Crop Mixed System. Currently, the Maize Mixed, the Highland Perennial and the Highland Temperate Mixed Systems are experiencing particularly acute fuelwood shortages.

Cultivated area has expanded from 123 million ha in 1961-1963 to 173 million ha (including annually cultivated land and permanent crops) in 1999. This represents a slow annual expansion of 0.73 percent mostly through conversion of forest and grasslands and shortening of fallows. During the period until 2030, cultivated land is projected to expand even more slowly, but the actual rate of expansion will depend upon the future evolution of farming systems.

The area affected by land degradation is increasing and the causes are complex. There are many aspects of land degradation; including soil erosion, soil compaction, reduced soil organic matter, declining soil fertility and soil biodiversity. Although land degradation is evident in a majority of farming systems, it is particularly notable in those such as the Highland Perennial and the Highland Temperate Systems where - in the absence of policy incentives for good land management - high population density places excessive pressure on land.

The region has a moderate level of renewable water resources, but only two percent of the available resources are currently utilised for irrigation compared with 20 percent in the overall group of developing countries. Only 6.5 million ha are currently irrigated and during the period until 2030, projections suggest a slower expansion than the 2.1 percent per annum achieved during the past four decades.

As global warming accelerates the most affected farming systems are likely to be those in the arid, semiarid and dry subhumid areas¹⁸. The increasing frequency and severity of droughts are likely to cause: crop failure; high and rising cereal prices; low and falling livestock prices; distress sale of animals; decapitalisation, impoverishment, hunger, and eventually famine. Households will probably try to cope with their cash and food shortage by cutting and selling firewood - thereby exacerbating land degradation and accelerating the onset of desertification - and by moving temporarily or permanently to more favoured areas. Conflicts between sedentary farmers and pastoralists will become more common as a result.

The Forest Based System, on the other hand, might benefit from reduction of excess moisture, but it is likely to face a population influx from neighbouring areas. The new settlers will cut and clear the forest to plant their crops - which might reduce beneficial effects of carbon sequestration by tropical forests. With increased population pressure, fallow periods would decline, making it progressively more difficult for farmers to maintain soil fertility and to control noxious weeds. Not only could yields fall, but biodiversity could also suffer.

Science and technology

Total annual and permanent cropped area was about 173 million ha in 1999 and it is expected to expand substantially in the years up to 2030. Total production of all crops in 1995-1997 was just over 250 million tons and, if current farming trends continue, is forecast to more than double by 2030. FAO projections suggest that this increase would be associated with an average rise in crop yields of 60 percent¹⁹. The greater importance of productivity growth in future decades is in contrast to the nature of production growth in the past 30 years, during which time maize area expanded 1.5 percent per annum while yield increased only 1.2 percent per annum (see Table 2.2). Major increases are expected to come from expanded production on heavy lowland soils, humid and moist subhumid tropics, and on irrigated land in several farming systems - although most production in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to come from rainfed farming.

Inorganic fertiliser consumption is very low despite the declining soil fertility noted above. Total regional consumption is only 1.3 million tons of nutrient - equivalent to an average of only 8 kg/ha of nutrient within the region compared with 107 kg/ha in all developing countries. During the period until 2030, total fertiliser consumption in the region is only expected to increase slowly²⁰. Even if fertiliser use expands rapidly in Africa, average application rates will continue to be far lower than in other regions. The use of compost or other soil amendments does not compensate for these very low levels of fertiliser use.

Currently, the region has 219 million head of cattle, 19 million goats and 189 million sheep (see Table 2.3). Tsetse infestation is a major factor influencing the distribution of livestock between different farming systems. The tsetse challenge tends to be concentrated in the moist subhumid and humid lowlands, and in drier areas near game reserves. In spite of this, increasing numbers of cattle are raised in areas that were originally tsetse infested in the moist subhumid and dry subhumid zones, e.g. in the Root Crop and Cereal-Root Crop Mixed Systems. This trend is likely to continue. Nevertheless, cattle numbers per household tend to be higher in the dry farming systems than in the moist systems. From 1970 to the present time, regional cattle, goat and sheep numbers grew moderately, but poultry and pig populations have grown faster, at around three percent per annum. Between 2000 and 2030, livestock and poultry numbers production are projected to grow at a moderate rate, due to expansion of urban consumer demand for meat, milk and eggs.

Trade liberalisation and market development

Since 1961, although the absolute value of agricultural exports has risen, the region's share of world agricultural trade has fallen. In absolute terms, the sharpest fall has been in Southern Africa, whose share of world agricultural trade fell from nine percent in 1961 to three percent in 1998. In proportional terms, however, the other sub-regions of Africa have done little better. There has been much more stability in Africa's share of world agricultural imports, which forms a smaller proportion of world trade than do exports - ranging from 0.2 percent in Central Africa to one percent in West Africa.

In 1998, agriculture still accounted for 47 percent of total exports from East Africa, whereas in West and Central Africa agriculture's share of total exports have dropped from over 70 percent in 1961 to only 9 to 10 percent in 1998, partly as a consequence of the development of petroleum exports. Over the same period, in Southern Africa, agricultural exports declined from 59 percent to 14 percent of total exports due to expansion of non-agricultural sectors. The region's principal agricultural exports are cocoa, coffee and cotton. Cocoa accounted for 22 percent of total agricultural exports in Central Africa and 48 percent in West Africa. For coffee, the share varied between 12 and 25 percent (in West Africa and East Africa respectively). For cotton, the range was between five percent in East Africa and 26 percent in Central Africa. In Southern Africa, by contrast, the major exports were sugar, wine and fruits - mainly from the Republic of South Africa.

Over the past three decades, there has been a broad stability in the proportion of agricultural products in total imports to the region. This now ranges from a high of around of 20 percent in Central Africa, to 15 percent in East Africa and West Africa and a low of 8 to 12 percent in Southern Africa. The main agricultural imports consist of cereals (wheat, rice and maize). Over the past 30 years, these have risen from five percent of total cereal consumption to 14 percent. If these trends continue, in 2030 the region would need to import an estimated one-sixth of its total cereal requirements.

Most cereal imports have been made on a commercial basis, rather than as food aid. Except in a few years, food aid has represented less than half of cereal imports and the proportion for 1995-1978 (17 percent) was lower than in 1975-1978 (25 percent). Nonetheless, in 1998 per capita food aid flows were three times as large as food aid flows to Asia and Latin America.

Policies, institutions and public goods

Structural adjustment programmes have been implemented in many countries in the region. Whilst these programmes have conferred macroeconomic stability on many economies, farmers have faced declining terms of trade and poorer access to many agricultural inputs such as improved seed and agro-chemicals, as well as lower and more uncertain grain prices.

These effects are particularly evident in the Maize Mixed Farming System where, over the years, considerable public sector investment has been directed towards input distribution. The Farmers Marketing Board (FMB) in Malawi, for example, established high quality grain buying and marketing depots at all main centres throughout the late 1950s and 1960s. As diversification opportunities were recognised, it renamed itself and became involved with a number of quasi-commercial activities, including the production and processing of non-traditional crops, plantation crops, canning and similar specialised activities.

The effects of structural adjustment on cash crop producers have been more mixed and largely reflect movements in international commodity prices. Cashew in Tanzania, for example, has experienced a boom-bust cycle, as production grew rapidly in the face of high international prices in the 1990s and then crashed spectacularly at the beginning of the next decade when prices slumped.

As part of the structural adjustment process, governments have focused on the core facilitation roles of Ministries of Agriculture (MOA). Despite the simultaneous emphasis on decentralization in many countries, local government structures have suffered progressively reduced budgets, resulting in cuts of staff and service delivery capacity. In most cases the private sector has not yet filled the vacuum, and it is not clear how long this will take²¹. To improve this situation, external support has been channelled through public and civil society channels for small business development, including village entrepreneurs.

Rural areas in many African countries have benefited from a slow but steady increase in public goods during the past 30 years. However, the transition to private sector involvement and cost recovery for services have been difficult in many countries. In general, the immediate effect of reduced public expenditure has been a crisis in the maintenance of infrastructure (e.g. roads and health facilities) and a reduction in essential services to rural populations - including schooling and health clinics - which will have a substantial negative effect on human capital.

Information and human capital

The reduction in government expenditure on extension and agricultural training in many countries, during the past decade, has reduced the access of farmers to technology and market information. It is expected that existing alternative sources of information will expand and new channels for agricultural information flows to rural areas will emerge, including the Internet. Already farmers' organisations in a number of countries have increased their extension and training activities; and internet connectivity is being supported. In addition, the private sector's role in technical and market information provision is expected to expand greatly during the coming three decades.

Selection of farming systems for analysis

On the basis of their potentials for poverty reduction and agricultural growth²², as well as their importance in demographic terms, five farming systems have been selected for analysis of strategic priorities, namely the:

• Maize Mixed System;
• Tree Crop System;
• Irrigated System;
• Cereal-Root Crop Mixed System; and
• Agro-Pastoral Millet/Sorghum System.

The greatest overall agricultural growth potential in the immediate future is found in the Irrigated and Cereal-Root Crop Systems. The trends, issues and priorities for each of these five systems are considered in turn below. The development of the first two systems would be expected to lead directly to both agricultural growth and poverty reduction. The development of the third and fourth would have a greater impact on agricultural growth, and only indirectly alleviate poverty. The fifth system offers the possibility of modest poverty reduction, although the growth dividend would be limited.

MAIZE MIXED FARMING SYSTEM

Characteristics of the system

This farming system serves as the food basket of the East and Southern Africa region (see Box 2.1 for basic data on the system). Both local and hybrid maize are grown and the former is often preferred for home consumption because of its better taste - in spite of lower yields. Minor crops include pulses and oilseeds which, like maize, are grown as dual-purpose subsistence and cash crops. Cash crops include coffee, tobacco, groundnuts and sunflower. Cattle are the most important livestock species. Crop-livestock integration is strong; oxen often prepare land²³, dung is collected and used to manure the fields, and animals are increasingly stall-fed on crop residues supplemented by cut fodder from fodder trees, hedges or forage plots. Although livestock density is higher than in any other production system in the region, most farmers cannot afford to keep more than two oxen and one milking cow, plus one or two calves
or heifers.

Although the maize belt suffers during major droughts, drought is not the main cause of poverty. In areas with low population density, the majority of households are able to produce enough grain to feed themselves, but households with less than 0.5 ha have a food deficit. Crop failure can occur in severe drought years. Livelihood diversification is a hedge against bad weather and marketing risks. The main causes of poverty are; very small farm size or landlessness, lack of oxen, low off-farm income and deteriorating terms of trade for maize producers. A typical household in the Maize Mixed System is briefly described in Box 2.2.

Differences in wealth are partly explained by differences in off-farm earnings and their re-investment in farming or commercial enterprises, not by differences in farm income. Nonetheless, the upper stratum of farm families has more and better farmland, more crossbred dairy cattle and larger areas of cash crops. Irrigation is more likely to be found on medium and larger farms. They also use more fertiliser, agro-chemicals and hybrid seed, as well as taking more credit. Poor households consist of landless or marginal farmers, often with no cattle (40 percent of households), no regular off-farm earnings and no high value crops. They grow mostly local maize for home consumption and cannot afford to buy fertiliser or hybrid seeds.

Trends and issues in Maize Mixed System

It was formerly assumed that smallholder maize production in East and Southern Africa could be boosted by a combination of high doses of inorganic fertilisers and hybrid varieties; and indeed much of the extension effort over the past two decades in Kenya, Zambia, Tanzania and Malawi focused on promoting these technologies. Once subsidies on inputs and guaranteed product prices were removed, and the full brunt of devaluation came to be felt, use of high-cost inputs on maize became uneconomic. As a consequence, farmers have reverted to cultivating traditional varieties where available, and even to growing substitute crops such as sorghum and sweet potatoes. In former maize-exporting areas such as the Southern Highlands of Tanzania and Central Province in Zambia, use of purchased seed and fertiliser has fallen sharply. Thus, smallholder maize growers are adopting more extensive husbandry techniques by reverting to low-input/low-output strategies and poverty appears to be increasing. However, in the future, the effectiveness of agricultural support systems - notably marketing - may be restored, at which stage a shift to intensification and diversification is likely.

The input/output price ratio for maize has steadily deteriorated as a result of trade and price liberalisation. Following the removal of input subsidies, dismantling of price supports, withdrawal of the state from grain purchasing and abolition of pan-territorial pricing, most smallholders have been struggling to adjust to rising input prices and declining maize prices. Smallholder input supply, credit and marketing services have collapsed and the private sector response has been less than anticipated. In keeping with policy reforms, governments were advised to withdraw from seed production and leave it to private seed companies. However, the private companies were only interested in hybrid maize; they were not interested in open pollinated varieties because farmers can save their seed for up to three seasons before renewing it. Hence smallholder access to farm inputs, credit, markets and good quality open-pollinated seed remains a problem.

As a result of rapid population growth, average farm sizes have fallen to under 0.5 ha in several areas. This size is not viable under these conditions, without supplementary off-farm earnings. In some Communal Areas in Zimbabwe, there is no longer sufficient grazing land to support enough cattle to plough the land or manure the fields. There are signs of serious fertility decline and increasing soil acidity in some instances where there has been prolonged use of inorganic fertilisers. Key issues include the high cost of mineral fertiliser relative to the price of maize - given existing productivity levels - the difficulty of maintaining soil fertility, shortage of livestock to produce manure due to feed shortage and shortage of oxen for farm power. One well-known response to this situation is the Starter Pack Programme in Malawi, which distributed subsidised seed and fertiliser very widely and has successfully increased national maize production. Whilst the fiscal sustainability of such a programme is questionable, the initiative has eliminated maize imports and even led to a surplus of production.

Top-down, message-based, technician-driven extension systems that were designed for promotion of single component `quick fix' technical packages - such as hybrid maize with mineral fertiliser - are ill-suited for addressing the current problems of this farming system. Even in the past, messages based on high external input use were often irrelevant to smallholders because the inputs were too costly and overlooked risk under rainfed conditions. In practice, farmer and other civil society organisations are now organising farmer-based seed multiplication and dissemination of technical information, and are beginning to fill the void left by government extension services.

In the short term, the major input supply and produce marketing issues are unlikely to be resolved. In the absence of targeted policies and programmes, land degradation is likely to spread and exert further downward pressure on crop yields. Through these processes the incidence and severity of chronic poverty are likely to increase, leading to the risk of disastrous famines when rains fail. The declining trend in maize surpluses marketed by farmers will threaten national food security in bad seasons and could force governments to import food to feed the cities.

There are signs of entrepreneurs establishing themselves in rural areas. Access to transport, a line of credit and a market in the neighbouring communities and towns have encouraged the initiation of small-scale processing, for example, for threshing, oil extraction, milling, cleaning, bagging and similar activities. For example, the Rwembo Multipurpose Women's Association of Kasese in Western Uganda (comprising just 20 families) established a maize mill in 2000. Just one year later the mill has a throughput of 800 t per annum and the Association is seeking to extend into food processing.

Priorities for Maize Mixed System

Whilst the Maize Mixed System is currently in crisis, its long-term prospects are positive. In some parts, household strategies for escape from poverty focus on area expansion. In other more densely populated areas with better services, intensification and especially diversification out of maize into higher value cash crops and livestock, along with increasing off-farm income, are more important strategies for poverty reduction. Implementation of these strategies depends on private sector investment for the development of viable input and output marketing. Productive and profitable technologies and practices for improved soil fertility management - and more generally, improved land management and diversification - are essential. Although significant diversification to non-food crops and livestock is expected in the medium term, this system will still continue to be the food basket of the sub-region and to underpin urban food security.

To address farmers' problems related to declining soil fertility, one main strategic option is to improve land husbandry, by implementing such approaches as conservation farming (see Box 2.3). This lowers cultivation costs, saves time in land preparation, makes the best use of rainfall and creates optimum growing conditions through timely planting. It also maximises in situ moisture retention by maintaining "open" soil surface conditions and a deep rooting zone - possibly using biological means of breaking dense soil layers such as plough pans. At the same time, it raises soil fertility through: (i) judicious use of legumes for biological nitrogen fixation, especially for fallow enrichment and in rotation, or as intercrops with cereals; (ii) integration of livestock in the farming system, maximising use of manure, e.g. through stall feeding; (iii) composting any available plant material; and
(iv) woodlot planting to reduce use of dung and crop residues for fuel. Application of purchased phosphate or lime may also have to be part of the fertility management strategy.

To address pest problems without recourse to costly and environmentally damaging pesticides, the main option is to apply IPM or the recently-demonstrated push-pull methods²⁴, with a special emphasis on weed (especially striga) control - for which rotations and phosphate application are important ingredients - combined with use of disease-resistant varieties and improved crop storage (e.g. to control the large grain borer).

In areas with low population density and where there are no restrictive tenure practices in place, labour rather than land becomes the key constraint. This situation strengthens interest in such technologies as zero tillage with draft animal power and conservation farming to allow dry season land preparation when labour demand is slack. There is also scope for integration of soybean into the rotation, and for promoting farmer-based multiplication of seeds and planting materials.

Ultimately, sustainable land management and soil nutrient capitalisation depend upon secure and equitable access to resources, and especially land and water. Various models to promote secure access to land by poor farmers have been promoted in the region, often with disappointing results. Among the novel tenure models being tested, one community-based model that is dependent upon customary tenure and community control is thought to hold particular promise (see Box 2.4).

For areas of high density, the emphasis shifts towards maximising returns to land, particularly through converting amply available labour into increased output. In such areas, it is important to increase the amount of land available for cultivation each year (e.g. through fallow enrichment using Tephrosia)²⁶. It is also important, to the extent that markets allow, to encourage a shift out of maize and other low-value crops towards high-value crops such as beans, sunflower, tobacco, vegetables, perennials and flowers. Diversification could also involve development of low-lying areas for irrigated or rainfed vegetable production, introduction of improved sunflower varieties and manual oilseed presses, promotion of intensive dairying and small-scale pig and poultry production, as well as aquaculture for urban markets.

Low maize prices can also be addressed by the promotion of off-farm activities with strong linkages to agriculture. Farmers' problems of inadequate access to input supply, credit and marketing services can be minimised by promoting group activities such as bulk buying, rotational savings or joint marketing, as well as through promotion of sustainable rural micro-finance institutions capable of meeting farmers' seasonal credit needs. Problems of access to good quality open-pollinated seeds can be addressed by promoting farmer-based seed multiplication (see Box 2.5).

The availability of information to small farmers will be a critical factor in diversification. The adoption of conservation farming and IPM will require educational rather than prescriptive approaches to extension. Each farmer must be given the means to judge which avenues for livelihood improvement best match his or her resource endowment. Thus, investment in farmer training, including the revitalisation of farmer training institutes and complementary village and field level education, is indicated.

TREE CROP FARMING SYSTEM

Characteristics of the system

The backbone of this farming system is tree crop production, notably cocoa, robusta coffee, oil palm and rubber. Food crops are often interplanted between tree crops. Roots and tubers (cassava, yam and cocoyam) are the main staples; tree crops and off-farm activities are the main source of cash. Livestock keeping is limited by tsetse infestation in many areas and so land preparation is by hand. The main animal species are pigs and poultry. Fish farming is popular in some areas. Off-farm activities are relatively well developed. A typical farm household within this system is outlined in Box 2.7.

Industrial tree crops were originally established by indigenous farmers through a process of annual clearance. Each year a household would clear from the forest as much land as it could manage with family labour (e.g. 0.5 to 1 ha), plant coffee or cocoa, and grow food crops (a mix of cassava, cocoyam, cereals, pulses) between the immature plants. However, after a year or two, family labour would not be sufficient to manage both the newly cleared land and the care of the plots established during previous years. Farmers addressed the problem by contracting the care of their second and third year coffee gardens to immigrant farmers from the savannah zone in exchange for the right to interplant food crops among the trees. Once the tree canopy closed and certain types of food crops could no longer be successfully grown underneath them, the tree crops began bearing enough coffee to pay for hired labour.

The current practices of commercial outgrower schemes are often in sharp contrast to the indigenous system. Commercial schemes usually set a minimum plot size (e.g. 5 ha per grower) and farmers are expected to establish the entire area in a single year; this situation forces some farmers into debt. The lack of staggered planting also increases vulnerability to pest and disease attacks. It is a major reason why many farmers linked to estate schemes meet with difficulties.

Trends and issues in Tree Crop System

The main trends affecting the Tree Crop System relate to: population pressure on natural resources, declining terms of trade and market share, dismantling of parastatal input supply and marketing services, and withdrawal of the public sector from industrial crop research and extension. The result has been increasing poverty and growing social conflict between tree crop owners and migrant workers - especially in Côte d'Ivoire.

Strong international competition has led to depressed producer prices and a declining market share for most industrial tree crops grown in the region. The consequent low profitability has resulted in neglect of some tree crops, as well as decreased demand for hired labour on commercial estates. In some cases, low farmgate prices are also due to high taxation of export crops and the low share of export price accruing to farmers. Use of mineral fertiliser and agro-chemicals is declining due to high prices, low profitability and lack of credit.

Smallholder services have broken down as a consequence of: failure of private sector to provide input supply, credit, extension and crop buying services previously provided by the parastatals; and, the divestment of state-owned agro-processing and its take-over by large-scale private investors. The private sector has been reluctant to advance inputs to outgrowers on credit and to deduct their cost from the marketed product. With the dismantling of parastatal commodity boards, tree crop extension was handed over to public extension services. The latter have, however, been severely downsized due to inability of governments to sustain their cost. Public extension services are currently attempting to transfer industrial crop extension to private commodity producer groups.

As a result of policy reform, public sector agricultural research institutes are withdrawing from research on export crops and leaving this to the private sector. However, private commodity research focuses only on export commodities. It does not consider other parts of the tree crop based farming and livelihood systems; hence the current failure to address farmers' problems, concerned with food crops and soil fertility.

Priorities for Tree Crop System

The Tree Crop System was once a key source of agricultural exports for a number of countries in West and Central Africa. Despite the problems referred to above, it is a high potential system and its growth prospects in the medium term are sound. The main household strategies for reduction of poverty are intensification (of both tree crops and associated crops) and increase in off-farm income. Both diversification - including processing and grading - and increased farm size, will also contribute to better incomes. The strategic focus for development lies in the improvement of support services, particularly those related to farm inputs and export marketing. To be effective, such improvements will need to be tailored to the particular needs of different groups of farmers.

Options for dealing with deteriorating terms of trade for traditional export commodities include: upgrading product quality for traditional export crops (crop rehabilitation, replanting with higher-yielding clonal planting material, better processing, grading and packaging); processing into semi-finished and finished products; a search for niche markets (e.g. biologically grown cocoa); diversification into non-traditional export crops to reduce vulnerability to world price fluctuations; and, in cases where prices are still administered by parastatals and export crops are heavily taxed, increasing producers' share of the export price.

The breakdown of input supply, credit and marketing services can be addressed by assisting smallholder tree crop growers to form commodity producer groups and by building their capacity to assume responsibility for input supply and marketing services. Another complementary strategy is to create self-sustaining, savings-based micro-finance institutions capable of meeting the needs of tree crop growers for seasonal production loans. Care should be taken to involve women in these micro-finance groups. However, because micro-finance institutions cannot afford to lend for long-term uses, long-term credit or one-time matching grants for tree crop establishment and replanting may also be needed.

In order to underpin intensification, agricultural research needs to be more focused on priority production problems of smallholders, and to involve producers in all stages of research. In order to reduce hunger, technology development should embrace food crops production, as well as tree crops - and involve women in the technology design, testing and dissemination. Technologies for sustainable tree-crop-soil management, building on agro-forestry principles, should be developed. Extension services can be made more relevant by strengthening smallholder producer associations to enable them to articulate priority problems and, if external support were available, to provide advisory services directly by contracting NGOs.

The need to boost support services - including marketing - underlines the importance of price, product quality and other market-related information. These services could be organised through forming partnerships between private sector and farmers' organisations; the main challenge is to ensure the relevance and financial viability of the information services that are created.

IRRIGATED FARMING SYSTEM

Characteristics of the system

For the purposes of this analysis, the Irrigated Farming System includes large-scale schemes covering nearly 2 million ha of equipped area which supports an agricultural population of almost 7 million (see Box 2.8). These include centrally managed, and mechanised schemes such as the Gezira scheme, and the larger farmer-managed schemes such as traditional riverine and flood-recession based cropping that is found in small pockets along major rivers, and dugwell-based irrigation in West African fadamas (wetlands). Sahelian oases, which individually tend to cover limited areas, are included under the Sparse (Arid) Farming System. Similarly, small-scale irrigation schemes and water harvesting are considered under other farming systems. Projections indicate that, in the next 30 years, production from irrigated land in the region could increase substantially, with most of the increase coming from yield increases on existing irrigated land.

Trends and issues in Irrigated System

In Sub-Saharan Africa, public sector irrigation schemes have generally been expensive to construct and maintain and their performance has been disappointing. Not only have production increases been lower than anticipated, but systems have often been unsustainable, due to low output prices and high operation and maintenance costs. Examples include the Gezira scheme in the Sudan (see Box 2.9), the Office du Niger in Mali, the Awash Valley scheme in Ethiopia and the Jahaly/Pacharr scheme in the Gambia.

Increasingly, economic liberalisation has led governments to attempt to restructure parastatal schemes on a commercial basis, or to hand over management to farmers in an effort to lower operation and maintenance costs. This strategy has met with success only in the case of the Office du Niger. In the Jahaly/Pacharr scheme, farmer management was tried, but proved to be beyond local management capacity. The remaining options are to redesign it as a series of smaller, more manageable schemes, or to find a private company willing to operate it on a commercial basis.

Small-scale Farmer-Managed Irrigation (SSFMI) has been more successful and holds the promise of being sustained by farmers (see Box 2.10). However, although the region has the lowest proportion of its cropped area under irrigation in the developing world, construction of new irrigation schemes is often more expensive than elsewhere and therefore difficult to justify. For new irrigation to be economically viable, farmers have to be able to grow and market high-value crops such as vegetables, and this is only feasible in proximity to markets. Hence, much of the effort in recent decades has concentrated on rehabilitation of existing schemes. In latter years, more attention has been given to ensuring sustainability through the organisation of farmer water users' groups for operation and maintenance. However, rehabilitation of existing schemes is often beyond farmers' economic means and even if farmers can meet recurrent operating costs, rehabilitation still depends heavily on donor financing.

Experience with traditional farmer-constructed and farmer-managed systems has been quite positive. For instance, recent experience in Mali indicates that, when an enabling environment for smallholder development is in place, spontaneous development will occur through reinvestment of farmers' savings. It is reported that over 10000 ha were developed spontaneously outside the Office du Niger on farmers' initiative - largely financed by the savings of migrant workers. Spontaneous growth of small-scale irrigation is also reported in Guinea-Bissau (in the balanta wetland rice system in the coastal plain) and in central Tanzania (e.g. Dodoma). During coming decades, it is expected that most irrigation development will take the form of SSFMI or individual initiatives. The expansion of the latter depends critically on market-driven diversification of smallholder farming systems.

Priorities for Irrigated System

The Irrigated Farming System is a high potential system, with ample scope for expansion in the region. Whilst the principal contribution of large-scale schemes is to national food security and agricultural growth, smaller schemes confer the added benefit of livelihood security and poverty reduction. The main household strategies to escape poverty in this system are intensification of existing patterns of production, diversification to higher value products and expanded farm size. An important consideration is to reduce risks of drought-induced crop failure by promoting, where feasible and environmentally compatible, extension of the irrigated or water harvesting area through low-cost techniques - such as flood recession and run of river - that build on indigenous technical knowledge. Where markets exist, the reduction of risk often encourages higher input use and intensification.

Assisting farmers to diversify into higher-value crops and to establish market linkages for inputs and outputs can address the low profitability of existing schemes. The improvement of product grading and packaging is also needed, as is support for small-scale agro-processing of perishable products. It will also be important to identify niche markets - for instance those for biologically grown produce.

Farmer-managed schemes and traditional irrigation should have priority because of their greater sustainability. Policies that give priority to small-scale farmer-built and managed schemes - especially for high-value horticulture crops - should be encouraged. Support to small-scale irrigation under Community-Driven Development (CDD) funds will also be important²⁸. The promotion of farmer-based seed multiplication should also be accorded high priority in connection with both intensification and diversification efforts. Further priority areas include: promotion of self-sustaining, rural micro-finance systems to cater for farmers' demand for short-term credit for seasonal inputs, hired labour, small-scale processing and produce trading; improving water use and productivity on existing schemes by building the capacity of water user groups for greater participation in scheme operation, maintenance and rehabilitation; strengthening the capacity of farmer associations to buy agricultural advice and market information; and, supporting farmers' field schools in connection with IPM for pest control in vegetables.

For large, centrally-managed schemes, interventions should be supported by a clear policy for sustainable agricultural production, free of controls over production choices. Improvement measures would include: a transparent pricing system; clear management and beneficiary obligations; modernisation and decentralisation of agricultural support services; delegation of responsibility for managing schemes to WUAs: and restructuring parastatal corporation along competitive commercial lines. In the short term, the priority is to rehabilitate,re-equip and modernise irrigation and drainage systems. In the long term, if technically feasible, priority should be given to sub-dividing larger schemes into smaller units, to make it easier for scheme farmers to take over their management.

CEREAL-ROOT CROP MIXED FARMING SYSTEM

Characteristics of the system

Although this system shares some characteristics with the Maize Mixed System (such as 120 to 180 growing days with, in some areas, mono-modal rainfall). It has, however, certain characteristics that set it apart: relatively low population density; abundant cultivated land; poor communications; lower altitude; higher temperatures; and the presence of a tsetse challenge that limits livestock numbers and prevents the use of animal traction in much of the area. Although cereals such as maize, sorghum and millet are important in the system, in the absence of animal traction, root crops such as yams and cassava are more important than cereals. A wider range of crops is grown and marketed, and intercropping is far more significant (see Box 2.11 for basic data, and Box 2.12 for a description of a typical farm household).

Trends and issues in Cereal-Root Crop MixedSystem

The Guinea savannah represents one of the major under-utilised resources in the region. Cultivated land is abundant and tends to be relatively under-utilised due to a combination of low population density, poor communications and labour shortages in the absence of animal traction. Although land is sufficiently abundant to permit substantial fallow periods in the crop rotation, there are already signs of fertility decline and an increasing acidity level in some soils; sometimes associated with prolonged use of inorganic fertilisers without attention to maintaining organic matter levels. As the application of mineral fertiliser to cereals has declined, due to deteriorating input/output price ratios, farmers are experiencing increasing difficulty in maintaining soil fertility, while weeds such as striga have become more difficult to control. In the northern part of the area, prolonged use of mechanisation for land preparation has resulted in loss of soil structure and organic matter.

In the 1980s and early 1990s, smallholder maize and cotton expanded rapidly at the expense of sorghum and root crops - especially in the more northern, drier part of the Guinea savannah - as a result of the diffusion of improved early-maturing maize varieties. This expansion was facilitated by government policies aimed at promotion of national food self-sufficiency, with the support of fertiliser subsidies, seasonal production credit and parastatal marketing support. In the long run, these policies were unsustainable, because their cost to governments was high and their impact on production was disappointing.

As trade and price liberalisation led to further deterioration of fertiliser/maize price ratios and to lower profitability of maize production, smallholder maize lost much of its attraction as a cash crop. On the other hand, currency devaluation also reduced urban demand for imported cereals and increased demand for traditional foods such as yams and cassava. This factor led to reversal of the earlier cropping pattern changes, with an expansion of the area under root crops at the expense of maize. However, since root crop production was highly elastic, as supply increased producer prices levelled off. Hence the impact of devaluation on the incomes of food crop growers has been rather modest.

Smallholder cotton also lost some of its attraction with the dismantling of parastatal programmes that supplied small farmers with seeds, fertiliser and chemicals at the beginning of the season and then deducted their cost from the marketed product. Although private ginneries took over processing, most were reluctant to advance inputs to small farmers on credit and then try to recover the cost at the end of the season. In the absence of credit, and with sharply rising fertiliser prices and stagnant or falling cotton prices, farmers found it risky to buy fertiliser and agro-chemicals. Hence, productivity declined as a consequence of reduced fertiliser application, plus pest and disease flare-ups.

The success of the Onchocerciasis Control Programme (OCP) has opened up large areas of cultivated land to farmers. The coming three decades may well witness the development of infrastructure, access to markets and consequent intensification and diversification. Livestock populations are likely to expand, especially in the southern fringes of the farming system, as tsetse pressure is reduced. Whilst land has been plentiful up to the present time, local population growth and in-migration will increase future pressure on land resources. In the absence of corrective measures, soil fertility problems can be expected - as in other more densely settled farming systems.

Priorities for Cereal-Root Crop MIXEDSystem

This farming system - because of its relatively low population density and the abundance of cultivated land that could be brought under cultivation - is considered to be one with the highest agricultural growth potential in Africa. It has ample opportunity for growth through expansion of the cropped area as well as through higher yields per ha (see Box 2.13 for an overview of this potential in West Africa). In addition, there is potential for poverty reduction through - in order of importance - the following household strategies: (i) intensification of production; (ii) expansion of farm size; and (iii) diversification to high value products and processing. Some improvement in livelihoods will also be derived from off-farm income.

The exploitation of these opportunities involves three types of concerted action: (i) conservation farming; (ii) integrated pest management; and (iii) crop-livestock integration. In the long run, there could be scope for extension of the cropped area per household in connection with tsetse eradication and mechanisation (either through animal traction or small tractors), as well as through agricultural industrialisation. Conservation agriculture would involve the introduction of reduced tillage, and improved land husbandry²⁹, including the use of cover crops and mulching, as well as better soil management to address the soil fertility problem (see Box 2.3). As a condition for its success, the adoption of conservation agriculture also entails -- confinement and stallfeeding of animals, which releases organic matter for surface mulching and composting. Integrated pest and plant management mainly involves biological control of plant pests and weeds (especially striga). Crop-livestock integration is based upon increased cultivation of fodder crops, with cut and carry feeding systems. In the long run, such integration might involve pushing the frontier of animal traction southward into the tsetse-prone zone using new technologies³⁰. Introduction of animal traction could facilitate the replication of successful models for the expansion cotton production that were promoted by the former cotton parastatals.

Farmers have responded to declining maize prices by diversifying crop production - increasing production of traditional root crops, as well as vegetables for urban markets. However, when the quantity of food supplied to urban markets expanded, prices levelled off and income increases were limited. Some options for addressing the problem of low farmer incomes include: improved small-scale, rural-based cassava processing for human food and animal feed to allow smallholders to capture more of the value-added; and, upgrading of product packaging to increase their appeal to urban consumers. To address the problem of breakdown of input supply and marketing services for cotton, the best options will be to organise small farmers to reinforce input supply and marketing services, and to introduce IPM methods for improved pest control, thereby reducing the dependence on purchased inputs.

AGRO-PASTORAL MILLET/SORGHUM FARMING SYSTEM

Characteristics of the system

As mentioned in the first section of this Chapter, crops and livestock are of comparable importance in this farming system (see Box 2.14 for basic data on the system).

Rainfed sorghum and pearl millet are the main sources of food and are rarely sold, whereas sesame and pulses are sometimes sold. Land preparation is by oxen, or by hoe along river banks. Camels are sometimes used in the drier parts. Ethnic groups are often former livestock-keeping peoples who have become sedentary. Livestock are kept for subsistence (milk and milk products), offspring, transportation (camels, donkeys), land preparation (oxen, camels), sale or exchange, savings, bridewealth and insurance against crop failure. Rather than carts, pack animals or animal-drawn sledges are used to transport crops. Crop-livestock interaction is limited; animals are used for ploughing, crop residues are grazed in the fields after harvest (and sometimes cut), but fodder crops are not grown and kraal manure is rarely applied to fields. The population lives in villages the whole year round, although part of the herd may continue to migrate seasonally with herd boys. A typical household in the Agro-Pastoral Farming System is outlined in Box 2.15.

Food insecurity is basically caused by drought and aggravated by low levels of assets. Upper stratum households are food secure even in most bad years, because they have enough livestock to trade for the grain they lack. Households in the lower stratum are chronically food insecure - in both good and bad years - because they cannot grow enough grain to feed themselves and they have few livestock or other assets to exchange for grain. The middle stratum is grain self-sufficient in good years and in deficit during bad years. They are food secure in average years because they have some animals to exchange for grain, but in bad years they are highly vulnerable. Coping mechanisms include: (i) growing early-maturing, drought-resistant millet and sorghum varieties; (ii) storing grain from one year to the next; (iii) selling or exchanging small ruminants to buy grain in the hungry season; and (iv) in years when crops fail and where off-farm work opportunities are available, earning off-farm income to buy grain in order to minimize distress sales of animals. The poorest, who no longer have any animals to sell, cope by reducing meals, collecting and eating wild foods, cutting and selling firewood and working for others in exchange for meals.

The main cause of poverty is successive droughts. These result in crop failure, food shortages, sharp increases in grain prices, collapse of livestock prices and weak animals whose condition leads to deaths and decapitalisation of herds through distress sales. Destitution occurs when households have eaten all their seed and lost all their breeding animals, so that they cannot plant or start reconstituting their herds after the drought ends. Apart from drought, typical household problems include: (i) acute dry season water shortage for people and animals; (ii) shortage of seasonal grazing; (iii) physical isolation, lack of roads and market access; (iv) disadvantageous terms of trade for both crops and livestock; and (v) lack of health facilities and schools. Specific problems of this farming system include bird and locust damage to crops, laborious grain dehulling, stock theft, encroachment of farming on riverine areas and, in Southern Africa, land shortage and overcrowding due to the legacy of colonial dualism.

Trends and issues in Agro-Pastoral Millet/Sorghum System

The farming system has suffered from a general reduction in rainfall during the past two decades. Insufficient and erratic rainfall has led to low crop yields and the abandonment of groundnuts and late-maturing sorghum. There is an acute shortage of drinking water and firewood in certain areas. Soil fertility problems are emerging in the plains due to shortened fallow intervals and long periods of continuous cultivation. Land shortage is also a problem in the more densely populated areas where soils are more fertile.

Pressure on resources is expected to intensify in coming decades with the growth of human and livestock populations in the system. In some cases, this may lead to spontaneous sustainable resource management and intensification such as in Machakos - albeit a slightly more favourable agro-ecology - but such successes are likely to be the exception rather than the rule. Soil fertility of the better, cropped land can be expected to decline in the absence of dramatic technological breakthroughs related to fertility. In the absence of sound grazing management by communities, grazing resources in many areas will also deteriorate. Under these circumstances, both chronic and transient poverty can be expected to increase.

Crop-related constraints include drought, declining soil fertility, weed infestation - mainly by striga - in cereals and cowpeas, pests and diseases in cowpeas and groundnuts, and the high cost and general lack of credit for cotton inputs. Past research recommendations were often inappropriate to poor smallholders because they focused on yield maximisation rather than yield stabilisation and risk reduction. Livestock-related constraints include shortage of dry-season grazing and the weak condition of draught animals at the time of greatest physical effort. Crop failure is exacerbated by the seasonal price `scissors effect' between grain and livestock. In the hungry season it takes three times as many animals to buy a bag of grain than in the harvest season; while grain prices soar and livestock prices collapse when crops fail.

This farming system has not been much affected by the withdrawal of the public sector from seed and fertiliser supply and crop marketing, because it never did benefit much from these services. Public extension services were unresponsive to the needs of resource poor farmers and often promoted packages that were too costly and risky for crop growing under semiarid conditions. Good quality seeds of early-maturing, drought-tolerant varieties remain in short supply.

Priorities for Agro-Pastoral Millet/Sorghum System

In the difficult environment of the Agro-Pastoral Millet/Sorghum System, the household strategies for poverty reduction are diversified. Whilst the greatest source of poverty reduction is exit from agriculture, three other strategies are also of importance, namely: intensification; diversification; and increase in farm size. A key priority will be to reduce the likelihood of crop failure in drought years through improved land husbandry and water harvesting; plus multiplication of palatable, drought-resistant, early-maturing millet and sorghum varieties. Control of bird damage and the attacks of desert locusts should complement this strategy. To address problems of declining soil fertility, improved methods of maintaining fertility should be identified and applied on soils of different types. The savannah vegetation should be regenerated to provide strategic forage reserves and sustainable fuelwood supplies.

Specific interventions to address food and income insecurity include: maximisation of soil moisture retention and utilisation through land husbandry techniques; promotion of the diffusion of run-off water harvesting structures such as demi-lunes (half-moon-shaped bunds) and stone contour bunds based on successful experiences in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso (see Box 2.16). They should also involve facilitation of farmer-based multiplication of early-maturing, drought-tolerant sorghum and millet varieties with desirable local characteristics - including acceptable taste and tolerance to striga and bird damage. Of equal importance is the development of integrated control methods for striga and other field and storage pests and diseases; plus improvement of grain storage methods. In the livestock subsector, animal productivity will be increased through better utilisation of crop residues and by-products, promoting the use of locally-adapted breeds, control of epizootic diseases and improving village poultry production. Forest regeneration is necessary for sustainable fuelwood supplies.

Interventions to increase income from livestock should include: (i) the organisation and implementation of disease monitoring; (ii) approved certification schemes for the export of live animals and animal products; (iii) greater integration with crop farming for fodder supplies and sale of feeder cattle in more favoured areas - such as the Cereal-Root Crop and the Maize Mixed Systems; and, (iv) support to small-scale private livestock trading. Hides and skins are products of agro-pastoral systems which are often undervalued³². To ensure a high quality product, extension services should place more emphasis on the veterinary care given to the live animal, as well as to the treatment of the skin immediately after slaughter.

Problems connected with input supply and marketing channels for cotton can be reduced by assisting smallholder producer groups to take over these functions. Shortage of credit for cotton inputs, lack of animal traction, and hungry season food deficits can be minimised by organising networks of self-sustaining, savings-based micro-finance institutions. Loss of animals can be addressed by improving access to animal health services through community-based animal health workers. Grazing pressure can be lowered by: (i) developing sound land use and water policies for the rangelands; (ii) negotiating recognition of pastoralists' customary rights to dry-season grazing areas - including those to adjacent zones that are more humid; and (iii) promoting mechanisms for community-based conflict resolution to deal with problems between pastoralists and sedentary farmers over access to land and water.

STRATEGIC PRIORITIES FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

This final section highlights some of the major challenges in the region and consolidates the priorities proposed for each system. Drawing on the preceding analyses of farming systems, Table 2.4 ranks the potentials of each system for agricultural growth and for poverty reduction, and indicates the relative importance of five major household strategies for escaping poverty. This provides the frame for the consolidation of strategic priorities in respect of policies, markets, information, technology and natural resources, and the identification of a number of crosscutting strategic initiatives for the region.

Despite the fact that Sub-Saharan Africa is relatively well endowed with natural resources, the incidence of hunger and poverty is greater than in other developing regions, while the population growth rate is higher and the number of poor is increasing at an alarming rate. Rural poverty still accounts for 90 percent of total poverty and roughly 80 percent of the poor still depend on agriculture or farm labour for their main source or livelihood. Nevertheless, the policy, economic and institutional environment do not, in general, create the incentives for agricultural production - especially broad-based inclusive growth to benefit the poor. There is still an urban bias in development programmes and the supply of rural public goods is low. The performance of past investments in agricultural research and extension has been disappointing. Moreover, declining terms of trade, poor governance and civil strife, gender inequality, low levels of schooling and HIV/AIDS are all of deep concern.

The analysis of the selected farming systems indicates their different development prospects. Two systems have medium to high potential for both growth and poverty reduction: the Maize Mixed System in the medium to long term; and the Tree Crop System in the short to medium term. The Maize Mixed System is facing a crisis, but there are possible solutions through intensification and diversification. Agricultural growth potential depends to a large extent on the availability of under-utilised resources, intensification possibilities and market prospects. Two systems hold significant growth potential: the Irrigated and Cereal-Root Crop Mixed Systems - the latter in particular has enormous potential for integrated crop-livestock intensification if infrastructure and market access constraints could be overcome. The fifth farming system that was analysed in depth, the Agro-Pastoral Millet/Sorghum System, is considered to have only modest scope for agricultural growth and poverty reduction.

Other farming systems in the region also offer possibilities for agricultural growth and the reduction of hunger and poverty. There is potential for expansion of cultivated area in the Forest Based and the Root Crop Farming Systems, although in both cases there are significant soil and environmental constraints. In other systems, valley bottoms that usually have heavy soils are the main under-utilised resource. The Forest Based System has large under-utilised areas, but soils are fragile, market access is very poor and rainfall is often excessive. The Root Crop System has a moderate growth potential for supplying urban markets with root crops and for exporting oil palm.

In relation to the five pathways for households to escape poverty³⁴, massive efforts must be directed to support the intensification of productivity on the farms of poor households and the diversification of production towards high return activities, especially in the high potential areas where a majority of the poor are found. The development of alternative livelihoods - both local off-farm employment, and even exit from agriculture - will be an important component of poverty reduction programmes, especially in the low potential areas. Substantial effort should also be targeted towards expanding the productive asset base of poor farm households.

The following sub-sections of this Chapter outline the major strategic priorities and interventions needed to support the development of agriculture in the region. First, the priorities for national policy adjustments are identified. Next, the main thrusts for improved functioning of markets and for information availability, are considered. Key technology and natural resource management needs are then outlined.

Trade liberalisation and market development

Trade liberalisation is a double-edged sword for many farming systems. The expansion of export markets is crucial for the future of the Tree Crop System and for the long-term development prospects of other high potential farming systems. However, as a result of trade liberalisation, some preferential access to markets will be lost during the coming decades; and some domestic production will be threatened, and largely displaced, by lower cost imports. In these cases, governments may need to establish safety nets or other poverty reduction mechanisms.

In general terms, not only should non-traditional exports be promoted but there is also a need for a general focus on higher value products. This strategy responds to farmers' felt need to cope with the declining profitability of traditional export crops that is affecting Tree Crop systems, as well as savannah and semiarid cotton growers and highland Arabica coffee producers. Partial solutions include: diversification into non-traditional export crops; upgrading of existing export products to obtain the highest possible price (rehabilitation, improved processing); and a search for niche markets such as biologically produced items.

For pastoralists, agro-pastoralists and highland livestock keepers, the main thrust will be to devise and implement disease monitoring and approved certification schemes for the export of live animals and animal products. Since the region is one of the world's most open regions, in the sense that international trade is large relative to GDP, the effect of more rapid liberalisation might be less than in other regions. However, since the region already faces strong competition for world market share, and the traditional exports are already declining as a result, faster liberalisation might well accelerate this trend. It is unlikely that the region can produce as cheaply as some Asian countries because of higher labour and transaction costs. Even high-quality products for speciality markets (e.g. biologically grown Arabica coffee and cocoa) are likely to be affected, as competitors will tend to pursue the same market niches. The Tree Crop System would be the most affected by these changes. On the other hand, market niches for African ethnic foods could increase among immigrant communities in developed countries as a result of greater migratory flows from the region to developed countries, and these niches could widen further as others become familiar with these foods. Such opportunities would apply mainly to the Cereal-Root Crop Mixed and Root Crop Systems.

Ex-European colonies in the region could lose their preferential access to European Union (EU) markets and would face stiff competition from other developing regions. Access to developed country markets would continue to be limited by various types of health, veterinary and phyto-sanitary regulations. The recent changes in EU regulations regarding chocolate are likely to reduce cocoa imports from the region. The opening of EU markets to agricultural products may not be a panacea, since some competitors in North and South America may have rapid supply responses for cereals and livestock products.

Policies, institutions and public goods

The major distortions in many economies have now been removed during the implementation of Structural Adjustment Programmes. Whilst there is a need to continue with ongoing macro-economic adjustments, substantial benefits would be derived from a renewed focus on improved agricultural sector policies. Two major priority areas stand out in this respect: (i) resource user rights and (ii) long-term investments in public goods.

Despite the substantial land area of Africa and the favourable average farm size compared with several other regions, there are areas where, for reasons of history or of population pressure, small farm size is a production constraint. In order to secure equitable access to land and other resources, two main problems need to be solved: (i) how best to enable rural communities in areas with low population density to protect their customary land rights; and (ii) how to achieve more equitable access to land in dualistic countries in Southern Africa. The farming systems affected by the former issue are mainly the Forest Based System, the Coastal Artisanal Fishing System, and the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Millet/Sorghum Systems. On the other hand, the latter issue primarily affects the Maize Mixed System and adjacent Large Commercial and Smallholder Systems. The main strategic thrust for addressing the former problem should be some
type of community-based land tenure reform³⁵. Other possibilities include: promulgation of pastoral codes in arid and semiarid Sahelian countries and of a code of conduct for artisanal fisheries in West Africa; plus gestion de terroir approaches or conflict resolution in connection with community-based, natural resource management.

Because of the well-known shortcomings of private sector interventions there are a number of critical areas requiring the provision of public goods. In this context, it is extremely important to ensure a proper balance between short-term issues that interest smallholders and long-term investment in public goods of interest to governments, or to humanity as a whole. Whilst the opportunities and strategic thrusts for each farming system are highly context specific, examples of the latter include: conservation of the resource base for future generations; good land husbandry; sustainable natural resource management; soil and water conservation; environmental protection; maintenance of biodiversity; tsetse eradication; and, carbon sequestration. Farming systems with high growth potential are strongly constrained by a lack of services, including transportation and education (see also below). The challenge is to provide such public goods in a sustainable fashion, by ensuring that local authorities and communities contribute to their maintenance.

Information and human capital

The adoption of technology and the ability to exploit market opportunities, is closely related to the level of schooling of farm decision makers. A massive effort is needed in the education of farm women and men, and in the revitalisation of primary education services. The latter should not only prepare children to become modern farmers, but also equip them with the skills for gainful employment in non-agricultural areas.

The popular conception of the coming information age applies as fully to smallholder agriculture as it does to other industries. By 2030, knowledge-intensive farming will be the norm in high potential farming systems in the region, just as such agriculture is prevalent in OECD countries today. For example, the adoption of conservation farming and IPM will require an educational rather than a prescriptive approach to extension - each farmer must be given the means to judge which avenues for livelihood improvement best match his or her resource endowment. This implies not only wide availability of high quality technical and market information, but also requires massive investment in farmer training. Such training could be located in revitalised farmer training institutes, complemented by village and field level education. Not only should farmers be trained in agricultural production, but some should be trained as entrepreneurs and micro-traders.

HIV/AIDS is having a profound affect on farming communities in Africa. The most crucial short term action is to halt the spread of HIV/AIDS through appropriate information campaigns and a cheap supply of condoms. There is also a need for safety nets to reinforce the efforts of rural communities to support AIDS orphans and for land tenure reform to prevent widows from losing access to, and control over, land and household property when their husbands die.

In much of the region, medium to large farms have considerable scope for increasing agricultural productivity and for diversification. These farms tend to be more specialised, and accelerated development would require improved services. One means would be the privatisation of financial, input supply and advisory services, since commercial farms will be able to meet user charges. However, public support to research and dissemination is justified in order that natural resources are protected for future generations. Equal access of farm women to these facilities and services is imperative for the future development of farming systems in the region.

Science and technology

Diversification from low value to higher value crops or livestock enterprises is a major strategic thrust for the Maize Mixed, the Cereal-Root Crop Mixed, the Highland Temperate and the Tree Crop Systems. In the Agro-Pastoral Millet/Sorghum and Pastoral Systems, the main strategic thrust is diversification into lower risk crops and activities in order to reduce vulnerability to drought. It provides a partial answer to farmers' problems related to: deteriorating input/output price ratios for maize and wheat; deteriorating terms of trade for traditional export crops; and, vulnerability to crop failure in arid and semiarid zones. Diversification, with a focus on added value, is equally applicable at farm or community level. Access to transport, a line of credit and a market in the neighbouring communities is often sufficient to encourage widespread small-scale processing, for example, for threshing, oil extraction, maize milling, cleaning, bagging and micro bakeries - and with good management such enterprises can expand rapidly and provide local jobs for farmers³⁶.

For households with insufficient land to depend upon farming alone, the main focus should be on diversification of income sources to evolve an optimal combination of crop, livestock and off-farm activities. Diversification is particularly beneficial to poor households because it increases the resilience of poor households in the face of both weather-related and market shocks.

Existing technologies for reducing vulnerability to drought need to be popularised. Drought risk affects Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Millet/Sorghum Systems and - to a lesser extent - the Maize Mixed and Highland Temperate Mixed Systems. The main thrusts for addressing the problem on the crop side are: introduction of drought-tolerant, early-maturing crops and varieties; maximisation of soil moisture retention and utilisation through land husbandry; water harvesting; and, small-scale, farmer-managed irrigation.

Key technologies for livestock centre on vulnerability reduction through the development of sound rangeland and and water use policies implementing procedures for drought early warning, and drought mitigation and rehabilitation practices; control of epizootic diseases; development of conservation agriculture appropriate for arid and semiarid areas; and, development of viable non-pastoral alternatives for those that can no longer be sustained by the resource base.

Affordable and environmentally friendly pest and weed control technologies should be promoted. Pest and weed problems occur to some extent in all systems: crop damage by wild animals in the Forest Based System; locusts in the Sahel; striga weed in Cereal-Root Crop Mixed and Agro-Pastoral Millet/Sorghum systems. However, viable alternatives to costly pesticides are particularly important for cotton growers and irrigated vegetable producers, and will involve promotion and training in pro-active, IPM-based, farmer-centred pest and weed control management. Farmer-based multiplication can contribute to effective seed distribution at limited cost (see the Zambia case study).

It is necessary to develop productive partnerships between public, private sector and civil society organisation, notably farmers' organisations, to invest in technology development. However, the private sector lacks the incentive for research in important areas such as long term resource management. This may call for the introduction of innovative funding mechanisms.

Natural resources and climate

The issue of land degradation and soil fertility cuts across all systems to a greater or lesser extent. However, a particularly acute crisis is currently being experienced in the Maize Mixed and Highland Temperate Mixed Systems. The causes of declining fertility are complex but attempts to recapitalise soil fertility (see Box 2.17) solely through the use of inorganic fertilizers have produced only short-term responses, and in many cases appear to have had little impact on overall yields - at least in the crops for which they were intended. Furthermore, economic liberalisation and the removal of subsidies has led to sharp reduction in fertiliser application on maize and wheat in the high potential farming systems as input supply chains have broken down and the fertiliser:grain price ratio increased. Some areas - such as the Southern Highlands of Tanzania in the Maize Mixed System - that once specialised in smallholder maize, are reverting to extensive cultivation of traditional varieties without fertiliser, and poverty is increasing.

One well-proven solution to the problem of land degradation in general is the adoption of improved land management practices. This is best described as a set of principles rather than a package of technologies (see Box 2.18). The implementation of these principles can take place within a number of technological practices, including conservation tillage and related conservation agriculture (see Box 2.3 above).

Projections indicate a slow expansion of irrigation during the coming 30 years, in the context of large reserves of land for the expansion of low cost rainfed agricultural production. Thus, unlike other regions where irrigated lands will generate a major part of the increases in food production, irrigation in Africa may play a very modest role during the coming three decades.

Conclusions

In Sub-Saharan Africa, hunger and poverty are extensive and increasing rapidly. Roughly 80 percent of the poor depend on farming for their main livelihood. The best available predictions suggest only a gradual decline in the prevalence of hunger and poverty in coming years³⁷; and the levels of hunger and poverty implied under this `business as usual' scenario fail to meet international development goals by a very substantial margin. Policy, economic and institutional environments within the region do not, in general, create the required incentives for agricultural production - especially broad-based inclusive growth to benefit the poor. There is still an urban bias in development programmes, agriculture is over-taxed and the supply of rural public goods is less than in other regions, while transaction costs remain high. The performance of past investments in agricultural research and extension has been disappointing, while terms of trade have been declining. Moreover, poor governance, civil strife, a degenerating law and order situation, gender inequality, low levels of schooling and HIV/AIDS are all of deep concern.

The abundance of natural resources in the region provides the basis for pro-poor agricultural development if the appropriate incentives are created by the adjustments in national policies, reorientation of institutions and provision of public goods and services. The analysis of major farming systems indicates the relative importance of household strategies to escape poverty - in order of importance: diversification; intensification; increase in farm size; exit from agriculture; and, increase in off-farm income. The overall strategic goal should be broad-based inclusive agricultural growth occurring in poorer communities and the poorer sections of each community. In order to halve hunger and poverty by the year 2015, massive efforts are required to stimulate such growth, which ultimately depends on the initiative and effort of individual farm families within each farming system. Although it is impossible, based on the foregoing regional analysis, to prescribe specific national actions, the overall challenge of reducing hunger and poverty in the region demands five strategic, inter-linked, initiatives:

Sustainable resource management. Sustainable resource management must address widespread land degradation, declining soil fertility and low crop yields resulting from inadequate rainfall; it should result in soil recapitalisation and improved productivity. Components include farmer-centred agricultural knowledge and information systems to document and share successes; resource enhancements such as small-scale irrigation and water harvesting; participatory applied research focused on integrated technologies blending indigenous and scientists' knowledge, related to conservation agriculture, agroforestry, IPM and crop-livestock integration; and strengthening resource user groups.

Improved resource access. Access to agricultural resources by poor farmers is intended to create a viable resource base for small family farms. Components include: market-based land reform; adjustment of legislation; strengthened public land administration; and functional community land tenure.

Increased small farm competitiveness. Increasing competitiveness of small and poor farmers will build capacity to exploit market opportunities. Components include: improved production technology; diversification; processing; upgrading product quality; linking production to niche markets; and strengthening support services, including market institutions based on public-private partnerships.

Reduced household vulnerability. Household risk management will reduce the vulnerability of farm households to natural and economic shocks, both of which are prevalent in African agriculture. Components include: drought-resistant and early varieties and hardy breeds; improved production practices for moisture retention; insurance mechanisms; and strengthening traditional and other risk spreading mechanisms.

Responding to HIV/AIDS. Immediate action is required to halt the spread and impact of HIV/AIDS. Components include: information campaigns; a cheap supply of condoms; affordable treatment; land tenure reform to prevent widows losing access to, and control over, land and household property when their husbands die; agricultural training for AIDS orphans; and safety nets to reinforce the efforts of rural communities to support AIDS orphans.

1 See Annex 3 for a list of countries.

2 FAOSTAT.

3 See Annex 5 for an explanation of agro-ecological zones.

4 World Bank 2000b.

5 Among those countries ranked by the World Bank (2000a) (excludes small island countries and those with incomplete data).

6 Calculated on the basis of totals published in World Bank (2000f), for countries with data available.

7 The sharpest declines were reported in Eritrea, Angola, Uganda, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mozambique, Mauritania and Lesotho and the greatest increases in the Congo Republic, Cameroon, Rwanda, Togo, Niger, Benin, Namibia, Central African Republic, Zimbabwe and Mali.

8 In West Africa, agriculture's contribution to export earnings has declined over the past three decades due to expansion of the petroleum industry. In Southern Africa it declined due to expansion of non-agricultural sectors.

9 See Chapter 1 for an explanation of the approach to delineation of farming systems.

10 Area of irrigation generally refers, herein, to area equipped for irrigation, which exceeds the operated area in some cases.

11 Ethiopian `false banana'.

12 Often, the impact of droughts on poverty is even greater in lowland agropastoral and pastoral areas.

13 There is some similarity in ecology to the Cereal-Root Crop Mixed Farming System.

14 The larger schemes are, however, considered under the Irrigated System.

15 Urban and peri-urban agriculture are often referred to collectively. Whilst urban agriculture refers to production inside city (including suburban) limits, there are many definitions of the outer boundary of peri-urban agriculture. In this book, farmers outside the boundaries of cities and towns are included in the corresponding farming system.

16 Except where indicated, these data are drawn from FAO (2000a).

17 See United Nations Population Division (2000) for an analysis of the demographic impact of AIDS.

18 See Fischer et al (2001) for recent assessments of the impact on agriculture under various scenarios.

19 FAO 2000a.

20 Reasons include subsidy removal in recent years, high and rising fertiliser prices as a consequence of currency devaluation, high transport costs, continued poor input/output price ratios and high risks if crop failure occurs, and the breakdown of credit for smallholder seasonal production loans.

21 The hesitation of private sector to invest in agricultural input supply and produce marketing has been aggravated by mixed signals from governments: for instance, the provision of Starter Kits in Malawi and the discussion of the reintroduction of subsidised fertilizer distribution through co-operatives in Zambia.

22 Systems selected either have high poverty with moderate growth potential or high growth potential in spite of limited poverty.

23 Some is also prepared by hand hoe.

24 These technologies use a combination of attractants (to draw or pull pests away from the crop) and repellents (to repel or push pests away from the crop). Small holders in Kenya are adopting this push-pull technology for maize stalk borer, which builds on farmers' indigenous knowledge.

25 Tanner 2001.

26 Complementary technologies include the systematic transfer of biomass from uncultivated land to cropped land, in order to increase nutrient availability.

27 Mitti 2001.

28 This strategic priority is also relevant to predominantly-rainfed farming systems in which small scale irrigation can be developed.

29 Land husbandry is described in Box 2.18.

30 Based upon FAO's successful experience with tsetse eradication.

31 Abstracted from Case Study 3, Annex 1.

32 During the 1990s 25 percent of hide and skins entering the tanneries in Addis Ababa were downgraded, resulting in a loss of export value estimated at US$6.9 million (Bayou 1998).

33 Mascaretti 2001.

34 See the discussion of the five household strategies to escape poverty in Chapter 1.

35 Tanner 2001.

36 Steele 2001, pers. comm.

37 FAO 2000a.