4. Food requirements and population growthTechnical
background
documents 1-5 |
1. INTRODUCTION
Will humankind be able to cope with the continuing growth of its population?
2. THE BALANCE BETWEEN POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION SINCE 1950
The impact of quantitative or structural population changes on energy requirements
Diets of the populations of the world: classification of countries
Factors affecting the balance between energy requirements and food supplies
Closing the energy requirements gap
Closing the qualitative deficiencies gap
Aggregate impact of population factors, energy requirements and dietary changes
Beyond the present study: information needs
Political implications of changes in energy requirements and food supply
The present document has been prepared jointly by P. Collomb, Director of the Committee for International Coordination of National Research in Demography (CICRED) in Paris, and FAO’s J. du Guerny. After initial review within FAO by all technical departments, invited colleagues and the Reading Committee, and by selected external reviewers, a first version was published and circulated for comments to governments, intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), as well as further peer reviewers. Much appreciated comments and advice have been received from Prof. A. Palloni, University of Wisconsin, United States; Prof. B. Popkin, Carolina Population Center, United States; W.G. Sombroek, International Soil Reference and Information Centre, the Netherlands; Dr E. Boserup; J. Chamie, Director, United Nations Population Division. Further comments and advice were received from participants at the FAO/UNFPA Expert Consultation on Food Production and Population Growth, held in Rome from 3 to 5 July 1996, namely: Drs S. Rao, A. Khalifa and A. Jorgensen-Dahl for the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), United States; Prof. A. Adepoju, African Institute for Economic Development and Planning (IDEP), Senegal; Dr J. Bongaarts, Population Council; Prof. T. Dyson, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom; F. Gendreau, President, CICRED; Dr A. Khan, International Labour Organisation (ILO); Dr R. Leemans, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, the Netherlands; Dr L. Marovatsanga, University of Zimbabwe; Dr S. Nasser, University of Cairo, Egypt; D. Ouedraogo; Dr T. Preston, University of Agriculture and Forestry, Thu Doc, Viet Nam; Dr M. Rai, Indian Council of Agricultural Research; Dr V. Smil, University of Manitoba, Canada; Dr R. Tuirán, National Population Council, Mexico; Dr F. Vio, University of Chile; M.B. Weinberger, United Nations Population Division; Prof. P.A. Yotopoulos, Stanford University, United States; and J. Zaini, Consumers International, Malaysia.
This document has been prepared with the support of, and in collaboration with, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), whose contribution is gratefully acknowledged.
While grateful for the contributions received from all reviewers, the FAO Secretariat bears responsibility for the content of the document.
The world will inherit a very diversified food situation at the end of the second millennium. This paper highlights the regional contrasts and specificities within the global situation and trends. Its long-term analysis is based on the concept of food requirements, thereby taking a normative perspective to the extent that actual and projected food consumption and demand do not meet, or at times exceed, requirements.
Emerging from an acute food deficit in 1962, Asia has continually improved the proportion of its population’s energy requirements met by available food supplies, and is catching up with the situation of Latin America where, after a period of increases in the requirement/supplies ratio, stabilization has been observed. In contrast, Africa did not manage to improve the average food situation, and some countries, namely those mainly consuming cassava, yams or taro, have experienced a severe decline in this respect.
In the decades leading to 2050, by which time most of the increase before stabilization will have taken place, world population growth will dominate over other demographic factors as the primary cause of increasing global food demand. Food production is expected to increase broadly in line with this rise in demand, but not without further stress on agricultural, economic and environmental resources. The situation in parts of Africa is of particular concern. However, strategies do exist to slow down future population growth – especially in the longer term. They include programmes to raise levels of education (particularly of women) and improving access to methods of contraception, which also facilitate the achievement of food security and food production objectives.
It is useful to illustrate the challenge of demographic factors as given by the United Nations population projections to the year 2050 by evaluating the associated food energy requirements and plausible dietary patterns. The scenarios presented need be considered more as food for thought than as projections. The focus is placed on the demographic challenges at the regional level and for certain classes of countries identified by their dietary patterns which, for countries dependent on agriculture, correspond roughly to agrometeorological zones.
The increase in food energy requirements, expressed in terms of the total plant-derived energy incorporated into human food, of developing countries until 2050 results from the growth of population numbers and, to a lesser degree, of the changing age structure of the population. The ageing of the population and the increase in physical height as a consequence of better nutrition are factors that increase energy requirements, whereas declining fertility and increasing urbanization are factors reducing energy requirements. As a result, by 2050, energy requirements will be double what they are today in developing countries as a group (and more than triple current requirements in sub-Saharan Africa).
Many developing countries will have to graduate to more nutritious average diets in order to eliminate chronic undernutrition. Partly because of uneven food availabilities among the population inside countries, this process could require a 30 percent increase in food energy availabilities in Africa (but 40 percent south of the Sahara), 15 percent in Asia and less than 10 percent in Latin America.
In order to reach a well-balanced diet, people will have to diversify their food intake. Adopting for the year 2050 a level of diversification similar to that projected by FAO for the world in 2010, Africa would have to improve its plant-derived energy by another 25 percent (46 percent for countries consuming mainly roots and tubers) and Asia by 21 percent.
As a result of the combined effects of the preceding three factors, developing countries would have to increase their plant-derived energy by 174 percent. This means that, while the countries of Latin America and Asia would roughly have to double their plant-derived energy, Africa would have to multiply it by five (multiplying it by seven for the root- and tuber-consuming countries).
For Asia or Latin America, such a perspective requires further productivity growth, but at a rate lower than that seen in the last 15 years. In contrast, Africa would have to accelerate drastically the growth of its productivity. The demographic transition in Africa would facilitate the process of achieving food security: the annual growth rate in available plant-derived energy would be 2.6 percent in the low variant instead of 3.3 percent in the high variant of the United Nations’ population projections.
Where land and water become scarce, increases in yields will be achieved mostly through an increase in productivity sustained by the development of human capacities. In light of the level of education already achieved, many countries in Asia seem well prepared for the change in the nature of development. On the other hand, Africa’s lower level of development of economic infrastructures and of human resources will constitute a serious handicap for this region. By overcoming the challenge of simultaneously improving its human resources and infrastructure while facing a very difficult food situation, Africa would provide the groundwork for solving its food security problem in the long term.
The reduction of poverty and eradication of undernutrition, principally present in rural areas among food producers, will lead to an increase in food demand, a large part of which can be met through imports, notably cereals, particularly in Asia. Meeting this demand and the associated requirements for inputs and infrastructure will generate an increase of output in the global economy that must take place under sustainable conditions.
